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The best backhand in the business.

Daniil Medvedev may very well have taken over this prestigious mantle as the 2021 season kicks off Down Under. An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Medvedev’s unbeaten run of eight matches at the ATP Cup through the second week of the Australian Open identifies a backhand par excellence.

Medvedev’s backhand does double duty. It’s equal parts brick wall and frozen rope, able to repel and attack with ease. Sometimes it looks like he is shoveling the shot. It’s ultra-flat, and it’s struck with metronomic, Russian precision.

No bells and whistles. No French flair. It’s ungainly, and it’s unstoppable.

Medvedev’s backhand starts with a simple, scooping backswing and often ends with hands and feet flying in all directions. The stroke looks unteachable. The ball flying off the strings, on the other hand, is struck with impeccable accuracy. Think of an arrow peppering a bullseye 78 feet away close to his opponent’s baseline.

ATP Cup: Backhand Metrics
Medvedev went unbeaten at the ATP Cup, defeating Diego Schwartzman, Kei Nishikori, Alexander Zverev, and Matteo Berrettini. Medvedev’s backhand was a big reason why, as he struck more than double the number of backhand winners his opponents did.

Winners
Medvedev Backhand Winners: 17
Opponent Backhand Winners: 8

Unforced Errors
Think of unforced errors as simply loose shots. They happen all the time — just as much through a lack of focus and concentration as footwork and preparation. Medvedev had precisely the same amount of unforced forehand errors as his opponents (42), but considerably fewer from the backhand side. Why? Medvedev’s backhand is a machine.

Medvedev Backhand Unforced Errors: 44
Opponent Backhand Unforced Errors: 66

Forced Errors
Medvedev once again put up identical error metrics to his opponents from the forehand side with 43 forehand forced errors. His backhand yielded approximately half the amount of forced errors. This is “Exhibit A” for the backhand brick wall analogy.

Medvedev Backhand Forced Errors: 31
Opponent Backhand Forced Errors: 57

2021 Australian Open
If anything, Medvedev’s backhand has stepped up a level at the Australian Open. He has defeated Vasek Pospisil, Roberto Carballes Baena, Filip Krajinovic, and Mackenzie McDonald to reach the quarter-finals. Up next is ATP Cup teammate Andrey Rublev. Medvedev has cleaned house off the backhand wing so far at Melbourne Park, striking almost triple the number of backhand winners as his opponents.

Australian Open Backhand Winners
Medvedev Backhand Winners: 32
Opponent Backhand Winners: 12

Australian Open Unforced Errors
Medvedev has only hit about two thirds the number of backhand unforced errors compared to his opponents so far at the Australian Open. He is once again proving too consistent from the back of the court.

Medvedev Backhand Unforced Errors: 44
Opponent Backhand Unforced Errors: 60

Australian Open Forced Errors
Trying to force a backhand error from Medvedev is fast becoming one of our sport’s toughest tasks. This is another backhand metric that Medvedev has dominated through his first four matches.

Medvedev Backhand Forced Errors: 42
Opponent Backhand Forced Errors: 55

To gain a full appreciation of just how good Medvedev’s backhand is, don’t actually watch it. Focus on the ball that explodes off his strings and the lethal mix of depth, direction and power it produces. Look to see how uncomfortable his opponent is trying to get it back into play.

Then you will understand.

nfosys ATP Beyond The Numbers looks at the Spaniard's signature shot in Monte-Carlo
Rafael Nadal hits more forehands than his opponents at the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters. He also hits them harder. Tennis enthusiasts would not blink an eye believing those two common-sense statements at face value. Except they are false.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of 12 Monte-Carlo matches from 2017-2019 compares Nadal’s forehand metrics to his opponents. The eye test quickly identifies one of the most potent strokes our sport has ever seen – especially at sea level on a clay court. But the stats sheet shows opponents stack up better against it than we would have thought. The twelve matches in the data set are below. Nadal won 11 and lost one.

Rafael Nadal: 12 Monte-Carlo Matches 2017-19
1. 2019 SF - l. Fabio Fognini 6-4, 6-2
2. 2019 QF - def. Guido Pella 7-6(1), 6-3
3. 2019 R16 - def. Grigor Dimitrov 6-4, 6-1
4. 2019 R32 - def. Roberto Bautista Agut 6-1, 6-1
5. 2018 F - def. Kei Nishikori 6-3, 6-2
6. 2018 SF - def. Grigor Dimitrov 6-4, 6-1
7. 2018 QF - def. Dominic Thiem 6-0, 6-2
8. 2018 R16 - def. Karen Khachanov 6-3, 6-2
9. 2017 SF - def. David Goffin 6-3, 6-1
10. 2017 QF - def. Diego Schwartzman 6-4, 6-4
11. 2017 R16 - def. Alexander Zverev 6-1, 6-11
12. 2017 R32 - def. Kyle Edmund 6-0, 5-7, 6-3

Below are five focus points that may surprise you regarding Nadal’s forehand performance versus his opponents.

1: Nadal Hit Fewer Forehands
Our image of Nadal - especially on clay - is a player willing to go to all locations on the court to hit a forehand to rough up his opponent’s backhand. But in the 12 matches in the data set, his opponents actually struck more forehands than Nadal did.

• Nadal Forehands = 1493
• Opponent Forehands = 1546

Edmund hit 33 more forehands (204-171) than Nadal did in their three-set encounter in 2017, while Goffin hit 30 more (134-104) three rounds later in the semi-final.

2: Nadal’s Forehand Speed
Nadal is well-known for scorching forehands on the practice court but not really bringing the same blazing heat off that wing once the match starts. Regardless, you would naturally assume Nadal hits a harder forehand on clay in Monte-Carlo than his opponents. It’s not what the data says.

Average Forehand Speed
• Nadal = 122.9 km/h
• Opponents = 124.9 km/h

The match that had the largest disparity was against Edmund. The Brit averaged hitting his forehand 134 km/h, while Nadal was 121 km/h – a 13 km/h difference. There were only two matches in the data set (vs. Nishikori & Fognini) where Nadal averaged hitting a faster forehand.

3: Forehand / Backhand Ratio Almost Identical To Opponents
When Nadal is on clay – especially in Monte-Carlo where he has won 11 times – we would assume his ratio of forehands to backhands is much higher than his opponent’s. It’s simply not true.

Nadal
• Forehands 59% (1493)
• Backhands 41% (1030)

Opponents
• Forehands 58% (1546)
• Backhands 42% (1122)

Edmund is an opponent who also thrives on turning forehands into backhands in the Ad court. He hit 68 per cent forehands for the match, while Nadal only managed 61 per cent. It may feel like Nadal is consistently winning the battle to hit more forehands, but the stats sheet says otherwise.

4: Nadal Hits His Forehand From Deeper In The Court
Nadal likes to back up as far as possible to return serve. But once he has returned the ball and a rally blossoms, he is actually hitting a higher percentage of rally forehands inside the baseline than his opponents.

Nadal: Forehand Hit-Point
• Inside the baseline = 23%
• Within two metres of the baseline = 49%
• Behind two metres = 28%

Opponents: Forehand Hit-Point
• Inside the baseline = 18%
• Within two metres of the baseline = 56%
• Behind two metres = 26%

When Nadal defeated Nishikori in the 2018 final, he hit 48 per cent of his forehands inside the baseline. Nishikori was only at 16 percent.

5: Nadal’s Opponents Make Contact Much Higher
Nadal’s heavy topspin does indeed make his opponents have to make higher contact, but it’s not as much as you think.

Average Rally Contact Height
• Nadal = 1.05 metres
• Opponents = 1.17 metres

The difference is only 12cm higher, or around five inches. That’s roughly the same height as two tennis balls stacked on top of each other. When Nadal defeated Dimitrov 6-4, 6-1 in the 2018 semi-final, Dimitrov’s average contact height was 1.24 metres, while Nadal was at 1.16 metres. Those two measurements were the highest for both Nadal and his opponent in the 12-match data set.

Nadal’s heavy forehand is undeniably a significant weapon for the Spaniard and will be relied upon once again in his chase for an unprecedented 12th title in Monaco.

No player is better at digging out of trouble on serve that the Italian
Matteo Berrettini conquered adversity better than any server on tour in 2021.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of players holding serve when trailing in the point score up to Deuce identified Berrettini as the only player to feature in the leading three positions in all six point scores. The data set is focused on holding from 0/15, 0/30, 0/40, 15/30, 15/40, and 30/40. It includes players who competed in a minimum of 10 matches in the 2021 season.

Berrettini impressively led the Tour in three of the six serving categories and ended the season fourth best in Service Games Won at 89.6 per cent. Below is an analysis of holding serve in 2021 when trailing in the point score up to Deuce.

Holding From 0/15 (Tour Average = 62.3%)
1. J. Isner - 84.3% (113/134)
2. M. Berrettini - 80.4% (176/219)
T3 N. Djokovic - 76.0% (171/225)
T3 R. Federer - 76.0% (38/50)

John Isner performed best when trailing 0/15, holding 84.3 per cent of the time. Berrettini was second at 80.4 per cent, and Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer tied for third place at 76.0 per cent. There were only 14 players who managed to win more than 70 per cent of their service games from 0/15.

Holding From 0/30 (Tour Average = 36.9%)

1. N. Djokovic - 61.5% (48/78)
2. M. Berrettini - 61.3% (38/62)
3. S. Tsitsipas - 59.1% (52/88)
Djokovic (61.5%) and Berrettini (61.3%) were the only two players to push above the 60 per cent threshold holding serve from 0/30. Stefanos Tsitsipas came in third place, powered by his strong clay-court season. The Greek held serve from 0/30 a stunning 65.6 per cent (21/32) on clay in 2021 from 28 matches. That performance was notably higher than Rafael Nadal, who was in second place on clay holding from 0/30 at 59.5 per cent (25/42).

Holding From 0/40 (Average = 15.3%)
1. M. Berrettini - 38.1% (8/21)
2. J. Isner - 36.4% (4/11)
3. G. Dimitrov - 35.7% (5/14)

Berrettini fell behind 0/40 21 times in the 2021 season and managed to hold on eight (38.1%) of those occasions. Isner (36.4%) and Grigor Dimitrov (35.7%) came second and third. Cameron Norrie fell behind 0-40 56 times in 2021, which was the most of any player on tour. He was only able to come back and hold serve four times.

Holding From 15/30 (Average = 55.7%)
1. M. Berrettini - 73.3% (99/135)
2. R. Federer - 72.5% (29/40)
3. J. Isner - 72.5% (58/80)

Berrettini was the Tour leader holding from 15/30 this season, holding 73.3 per cent of the time. Roger Federer and Isner were tied for second at 72.5%. The other two players to hold from north of 70% were Kevin Anderson (72.2%) and Milos Raonic (70.4%).

Holding From 15/40 (Average = 27.2%)
1. D. Shapovalov - 51.4% (37/72)
2. A. Popyrin - 46.7% (28/60)
3. M. Berrettini - 46.3% (25/54)

Denis Shapovalov was the only player on Tour to drop into a 15/40 hole and hold serve more than he lost it. The 22-year-old Canadian held an astounding 51.4 per cent (37/72) of the time. In second place was another 22-year-old player in Aussie, Alexei Popyrin, who held 46.7 per cent of the time from 15/40. Berrettini rounded out the top three, holding 46.3 per cent. The other five players to reach the 40 per cent threshold were Federer (45.0%), Thiago Monteiro (44.7%), Dominic Thiem (43.3%), Philipp Kohlschreiber (42.3%), Raonic (40.0%) and Isner (40.0%).

Holding From 30/40 (Average 44.8%)
1. M. Berrettini - 61.8% (63/102)
2. D. Shapovalov - 59.8% (76/127)
3. R. Federer - 58.8% (20/34)

Berrettini was the only player to hold serve above the 60 per cent threshold when trailing 30/40, holding 61.8 per cent of the time. Shapovalov, who led the 15/40 category, came in second at 59.8 per cent, with Federer finishing third at 58.8 per cent (20/34).

Berrettini finished the 2021 season at No. 7 in the FedEx ATP Rankings, which is also his career-high ranking. Serving his way out of trouble was a big part of his 2021 success and will also form as a foundation to keep climbing the FedEx ATP Rankings in 2022.

Spaniard holds Tour-leading 23-3 clay record in last 52 weeks
It's no surprise that a Spaniard leads the ATP Tour in clay-court match-win percentage for the 52 weeks leading up to Roland Garros. But rather than King of Clay Rafael Nadal, it's the 19-year-old Carlos Alcaraz who paces the field, according to statistics from the Infosys ATP Performance Zone.

Alcaraz holds a 23-3 clay record over the last 52 weeks, including his third-round run in his Roland Garros debut last year — good for an 88.5 per cent match-win rate. Alcaraz has won four clay titles in the last year, with three this season. He won his first ATP Tour title in Umag last July, and followed it up with triumphs in Rio de Janeiro, Barcelona and Madrid this season to rise to a career-high of No. 6 in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings.

Remarkably, the man from Murcia has won more titles than matches lost on that clay-court run, which is highlighted by a 16-1 mark on the surface in 2022.

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Novak Djokovic is second on the clay win-percentage list, compiling a 21-3 record for an 87.5 per cent win rate. Seven of those victories came last year in his Roland Garros title run, and five came last week en route to the Internazionali BNL d'Italia trophy. Djokovic also won the one-off Belgrade Open just prior to Roland Garros one year ago, scoring four match victories to claim the title in his home city.

Both Stefanos Tsitsipas and Casper Ruud have more clay wins than Alcaraz over the last 52 weeks, with the Norwegian earning a tour-leading 28 wins and five titles over that period. Tsitsipas stands at 25-5 with two titles (Lyon 2021, Monte Carlo 2022), his 83.3 per cent win rate third behind Djokovic. Ruud's five clay titles have came in Geneva, Bastad, Gstaad and Kitzbuhel last season and in Buenos Aires this February.

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Diego Schwartzman is the only other player to reach the 20-wins mark in the last 52 weeks. His 22-10 record gives him a 66.8 win rate, putting him 10th by that measure.

In addition to multiple-title winners Alcaraz, Djokovic, Tsitsipas and Ruud, the following men have also lifted clay trophies in the past 12 months (listed by clay-court match-win rate): Pablo Carreno Busta, Sebastian Baez, Andrey Rublev, Sebastian Korda, David Goffin, Pedro Martinez , Reilly Opelka, Holger Rune and Albert Ramos-Vinolas.

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers dives deep into Nadal's Paris success
One game for you. Two games for me.

That’s the lopsided distribution of games won at Roland Garros in Rafael Nadal’s favour in 108 matches dating back to when he won the tournament on his debut in 2005. An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers breakdown identifies Nadal has won 66.39 per cent of games played leading into this year's edition, which is impressively right at two out of every three.

The data set is from 1991-2022 and includes all players who have competed in a minimum of five matches at Roland Garros in their career. Below are seven fascinating statistics from Nadal’s peerless body of work at Roland Garros.

1. Games Won
Winning two-thirds of games played at Roland Garros is a stunning match metric for the Spaniard, especially considering the impressive six-percentage point gap to Novak Djokovic, who sits in second place. Below are the leading three players.

1. R. Nadal = 66.39% (2052/3091)
2. N. Djokovic = 60.06% (1842/3067)
3. S. Bruguera = 59.28% (629/1061)
Nadal’s Roland Garros statistics also lead the way compared to the leaders at the other three Grand Slam tournaments.

Games Won: Grand Slam Leaders
• Australian Open = A. Agassi (63.01%)
• Roland Garros = R. Nadal (66.39%)
• Wimbledon = R. Federer (59.66%)
• US Open = R. Federer (60.19%)

2. Games Won Per Set
Most tennis fans feel that Nadal elevates his game when it’s time to finish the match on Court Philippe Chatrier. When you evaluate games won per set, that suspicion is proven correct. Nadal has a higher percentage of games won in the third set than the first two.

Nadal Games Won / Set
• Set 1 = 66.01%
• Set 2 = 65.80%
• Set 3 = 68.18%

3. Match Time
Rafael Nadal has delighted Parisian crowds on the court at Roland Garros for 15,547 minutes (259 hours), which is more than the three leading Americans in Andre Agassi (5433), John Isner (5116), and Jim Courier (4192) combined.

The only other two players to be on the court more than 10,000 minutes (167 hours) at Roland Garros since 1991 are Novak Djokovic (14,302 minutes/238 hours) and Roger Federer (12,203 minutes/203 hours).

4. Sets Won
There is Rafael Nadal and then daylight when analysing Sets Won in Paris. Nadal is in a league of his own, winning 314 sets from 345 sets played. Below are the leading three players.

1. R. Nadal = 91.01% (314/345)
2. N. Djokovic = 76.83% (252/328)
3. S. Bruguera = 73.50% (86/117)

5. Points Won
There are only 187 players who have won more points than they have lost at Roland Garros since 1991 (five match minimum).

Martin Verkerk played Roland Garros just three times, making the final in 2003, and remains the leader in points won at 58.69 per cent from 11 matches. Nadal is the only other player to elevate above the 55 per cent threshold, at 57.56 per cent from 108 matches. The leading three players are:

1. M. Verkerk = 58.69% (11 matches)
2. R. Nadal = 57.56% (108 matches)
3. S. Bruguera = 54.93% (34 matches)
6. Double Faults
The Roland Garros average for double faults is one every 4.7 service games. Nadal is way above that mark, averaging one every 8.3 service games. The two other players in the “Big Three” are also right around that mark, with Federer exactly the same at one every 8.3 service games and Djokovic averaging one every 7.7 service games.

7. Second Serves Won
Nadal’s second serve is a juggernaut on the Parisian red dirt, as he leads the Tour with points won at 58.90 per cent. The average for the rest of the players in the data set is underwater, at just 49.42 per cent. Only 144 players have exceeded the 50 per cent threshold for points won on second serves in Paris. The leading three players are:

1. R. Nadal = 58.90% (1711/2905)
2. E. Schwank = 58.79% (184/313)
3. R. Federer = 56.34% (1905/3381)

This year, Nadal will search for a mind-bending 14th title at Roland Garros. The statistics above provide an ideal roadmap for prolonged success on the traditional crushed brick surface.

Only three players clear the 25 per cent mark in grass-court returns game won
Grass-court tennis traditionally favours big servers, with the slick bounce off the turf adding to the arsenal of heavy hitters. But with Wimbledon rapidly approaching, keep an eye on two of the most successful grass-court players of all-time, who have found success by nullifying that potent threat on the surface.

Although two-time Wimbledon champion Andy Murray and six-time winner Novak Djokovic are more than capable on serve, it is their return games that lift them to historic heights on the grass. Djokovic leads all active players with a 26.4 per cent win rate in return games on the surface, while Murray is a close second at 26.3 per cent, according to statistics from the Infosys ATP Performance Zone.

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As a result, those two men have claimed more grass titles than any active player other than Roger Federer, whose 19 tour-level titles are the most on the lawns since records have been kept. Murray has won eight such titles, while Djokovic has claimed seven.

Diego Schwartzman is the only other active player to surpass the 25 per cent mark (25.3%) in grass-court return games won, with Denis Kudla fourth on the list (23.9%).

Career Return Games Won % On Grass (Active Players)

Player Return Games Won
1) Novak Djokovic 26.4%
2) Andy Murray 26.3%
3) Diego Schwartzman 25.3%
4) Denis Kudla 23.9%
5) Roberto Bautista Agut 23.8%
When considering all surfaces, Djokovic and Murray win 32.2 per cent and 31 per cent of their return games, respectively. That still puts them in elite company, but slightly behind active leaders Rafael Nadal (33.6%) and Schwartzman (32.4%). Seventeen active players eclipse 25 per cent in that statistic.

A similar gap can be seen in serving statistics as well. Just three men have held serve at a rate better than 90 per cent throughout their careers: Ivo Karlovic (92%), John Isner (91.8%) and Milos Raonic (91.2%). Federer is the next-best at 88.8 per cent. But narrow the scope to just grass courts, and 12 men surpass 89 per cent, including Djokovic.

The Serbian is seventh in hold percentage across all surfaces (85.8%) and ninth on grass (89.4%). Murray clocks in at 24th overall (81.8%) and 14th on the grass (88.4%).

Nadal, a two-time Wimbledon champion, is seventh among active players in grass-court hold percentage with a rate of 89.8 per cent. That leaves him just below Matteo Berrettini (90.9%) and Nick Kyrgios (90%).

Nadal is the most dominant victor on Tour, while ‘Big 3’ rival Federer makes opponents suffer for their wins
Tennis is a 55-45 sport.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of match winners vs. match losers identifies that match winners on average win 55 per cent of points in a match while match losers still accumulate a healthy 45 per cent of total points played. The data set includes 464 players who have competed in 100 matches or more in their career from the 1991 season when official match statistics were first recorded.

When analysing only match winners, Rafael Nadal sits at the top of the tree as the most dominant player in our sport in the past 30+ years. When Nadal wins his matches, he consistently creates a greater margin of victory than any other player. The leading three players with the highest percentage of points won when winning matches are below.

Percentage Of Points Won By Match Winners
1. Rafael Nadal = 56.40%
2. Novak Djokovic = 56.12%
3. Roger Federer = 55.91%

It’s fascinating to see the “Big Three” grouped together at the top of the leaderboard all within one percentage point of each other.

When you look at the other side of the coin at match losers, the player who is essentially the “toughest out” in our sport is Federer. In a losing effort, he has consistently won more points than anyone on Tour.

Percentage Of Points Won By Match Losers
1: Roger Federer = 47.57%
T2: Richard Krajicek = 47.31%
T2: Milos Raonic = 47.31%

Federer leads this list from two big servers in Richard Krajicek and Milos Raonic, who were tied for second place. One assumption that can be made is that being a big server helps you keep matches closer than being a solid returner. That theory gets support when you look at other big servers such as Todd Martin (47.19%), Pete Sampras (47.15%), Ivo Karlovic (47.06%) Andy Roddick (46.91%), Stefanos Tsitsipas (46.88%) and Greg Rusedski (46.85%) in the leading 10 players in this category.

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First-Serve Analysis
Match winners won a dominant 76 per cent of first-serve points, while match losers still averaged a respectable 67 per cent of first-serve points won in defeat. Goran Ivanisevic (85.56%) was most dominant in the match winners column, while Karlovic still managed to win 79.97 per cent of his points when defeated.

Second-Serve Analysis
Aussie lefty, Wayne Arthurs, led the Match Winners table, winning a hefty 60.45 per cent, while the rest of the players in the data set averaged winning 55.12 per cent of their second serves. When matches were lost, only John Isner (50.95%) and Arthurs (50.57%) managed to break the 50 per cent threshold for second-serve points won.

Summary
Defeat in tennis can be disappointing and deflating. Quite often players struggle to even pinpoint where things went off the rails or what part of their game broke down to contribute to the loss. But truth and inspiration can be found in the match analytics, which show just how far you really are away from your opponent.

A good way to think about winning and losing in tennis is each player who walks out onto the court is going to win at least 45 per cent of all points.

The real battle is focused on the remaining 10 per cent.

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers examines Kyrgios' powerful serve
Serving up a storm.

Nick Kyrgios possesses the best serve on the planet this season, winning an ATP Tour-leading 92.8 per cent (568/612) of his service games from 45 matches.

His motion is ruthless simplicity. His weight starts back while his arms are counterbalanced, stretched out in front. Imagine a bow flexing hard to shoot an arrow. He then drags his left foot and throws the toss far in front. It’s a quick, explosive motion that hardly sees the ball drop as he launches himself up into contact. At the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells this year against Rafael Nadal, he rocked a 143-mph first serve in the opening set and a 141-mph blast in the third set.

Unreadable and unstoppable.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Kyrgios’ 2022 serve statistics identifies seven specific point scores where he is the best on Tour at holding serve. The data set includes players who have played a minimum of 10 matches in 2022. Following are the point scores where Kyrgios leads the Tour, along with the Tour average.

Holding from 0/15 (Tour average 63.1%)
• 1st: N. Kyrgios, 82.4%
• 2nd: J. Isner, 81.7%
• 3rd: H. Hurkacz, 81.4%

Kyrgios is holding serve around 93 per cent of the time this season. That only drops to 82 per cent if he drops the opening point - just a blip on the screen. Kyrgios, Isner, and Hurkacz were the only three players to break through the 80 per cent threshold.

Holding from 0/30 (Tour average 40.5%)
• 1st: N. Kyrgios, 68.3%
• 2nd. N. Djokovic, 68.0%
• 3rd. J. Isner, 65.2%

When the rest of the Tour falls behind 0/30, they only manage to hold around four times out of 10 (40.5%). Kyrgios, on the other hand, holds almost seven times out of 10 ( 68.3%). It’s a remarkable gap that he has forged over his fellow players at this specific point score.

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Holding from 15/0 (Tour average 88.8%)
• 1st: N. Kyrgios = 97.1%
• 2nd: J. Isner = 96.6%
• 3rd: R. Opelka = 96.2%

Just one point to his advantage and Kyrgios holds serve an impressive 97 per cent of the time when leading 15/0. John Isner and Reilly Opelka were the other two players to reach the 96 per cent mark.

Holding from 30/30 (Tour average 73.5%)
• 1st. N. Kyrgios, 88.9%
• 2nd. C. O’Connell, 87.3%
• 3rd. J. Kubler, 86.7%

It’s interesting to see three Aussies at the top of this specific leaderboard, all able to close out a game from a tight 30/30 squeeze.

Holding from 30/15 (Tour average 88.4%)
• 1st: N. Kyrgios, 96.2%
• 2nd: J. Isner, 95.5%
• 3rd: H. Hurkacz, 95.4%

Kyrgios, Isner, and Hubert Hurkacz are consistently among the leading three players in these categories, but Kyrgios continually finds a way to edge them out of the top spot.

Holding from 30/40 (Tour average 44.8%)
• 1st. N. Kyrgios, 64.4%
• 2nd. J. Isner, 64.2%
• 3rd. M. Cressy, 62.5%

With Kyrgios facing a break point, he still manages to win almost two out of three (64.4%) service games, while the tour average struggles to get anywhere near the 50 per cent threshold, at 44.8 per cent.

Holding from Deuce (Tour average 72.8%)
• 1st: N. Kyrgios, 89.1%
• 2nd: H. Hurkacz, 87.4%
• 3rd: M. Cressy, 86.2%

These three players tower over the Tour average in closing out a game from deuce, with Kyrgios more than 16 percentage points higher.



Kyrgios is back to bringing the heat. He has struck 716 aces this season (second best), with 23 of them coming when facing break point. His service motion is unreadable to the returner. He launches a powerful wide or 'T' first serve off exactly the same toss. He is back inside the Top 20 in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings and is currently seventh in the Pepperstone ATP Live Doubles Teams Rankings with Thanasi Kokkinakis.

The Kyrgios mojo is rising.

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers examines Tsitsipas' serving statistics
Stefanos Tsitsipas is the ultimate “closer” when serving this season.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings from the 2022 season identifies the Greek as the leading player who holds serve the most after building at least a two-point lead in his service games. Tsitsipas has surged to a 30/0, 40/0, and 40/15 lead 946 times this season and has only dropped serve seven times from these three specific point scores. It’s a jaw-dropping stat, especially considering it does not add up to getting broken even one percent (.007%) of the time.

A “closer” is a specialized baseball pitcher brought in toward the end of the game when his team is leading. His job is to convert the lead into a victory. Tsitsipas perfectly fits the bill from a tennis serving perspective.

Stefanos Tsitsipas: 2022 Season

• Holding from 30/0 - 4 service games lost from 366.
• Holding from 40/0 - 0 service games lost from 269.
• Holding from 40/15 - 3 service games lost from 311.
• Combined - 7 service games lost from 946.
• Combined Hold Percentage - 99.3%

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The following breakdown identifies the leading players in the Top 10 rankings holding serve from 30/0, 40/0, and 40/15.

Holding From 30/0 (Top 10 Average = 97.2%)

1. Stefanos Tsitsipas = 98.9% (362/366)
2. Taylor Fritz = 98.6% (285/289) )
3. Felix Auger-Aliassime = 97.5% (314/322) )

A 30/0 lead is a solid way to start a service game, but the server has still only won two of the required four points to hold serve. It seems like there is still ample opportunity for things to get sideways for the server. Not so for Tsitsipas, Fritz, and Auger-Aliassime, who close the door on their service games better than anyone else in the Top 10. They were also the only three players in the data set to hold from greater than 97 per cent of the time.

Holding From 40/0 (Top 10 Average = 99.5%)

T1. Stefanos Tsitsipas = 100% (269/269) )
T1. Felix Auger-Aliassime = 100% (213/213) )
T1. Alexander Zverev = 100% (112/112) )
T1. Novak Djokovic = 100% (93/93) )



Overall, the current Top 10 have only dropped serve 10 times (1844/1854) this season when leading 40/0. No current Top 10 player has dropped more than two service games from 40/0. Stepping outside the data set, Maxime Cressy is the only player since 2015 to have led 40/0 more than 200 times and not dropped serve, holding 275 consecutive times from 40/0.

Holding From 40-15 (Top 10 Average = 98.1%)

1. Stefanos Tsitsipas = 99.0% (308/311) )
2. Felix Auger-Aliassime = 99.0% (287/290) )
3. Alexander Zverev = 98.5% (133/135)

The point score of 40/15 is once again a dominant scoreline for the Greek, only dropping serve three times in 311 service games. Interestingly, current world No. 1, Carlos Alcaraz, has dropped serve from 40-15 eight times (247/255) this season, which is more than any other Top 10 player.

Tsitsipas is currently ranked No. 5 in the ATP rankings and is competing in the Stockholm Open this week. He is less than 900 points behind the players ranked two to four, and only 1800 points separates Tsitsipas and world No. 1, Alcaraz. Tsitsipas is in contention to equal or surpass his career-high ranking of No. 3, and the top rung is certainly in play if he can once again capture the Nitto ATP Finals, which he did in 2019.

Players fire close to 50 per cent more serves to the forehand than 10 years ago
Coaches have for years drilled into budding tennis players and professionals that serving to the backhand provides a stronger chance of winning second-serve points. In fact, it is clear that this tactic is the norm on the ATP Tour. Fifty per cent of serves have been directed to the backhand corner and 35 per cent to the body – mainly to the backhand side – leaving only 15 per cent of serves delivered to the forehand.

The thinking is simple: Serving to the backhand provides a safer option when sending down a slower delivery on the second serve. Naturally, forehand returns are more dangerous, so a high ball to the backhand provides a better chance of neutralising the opponent's return, while reducing the risk of double faulting.


Animation 1: Serve Zone Trajectories on second serves to Deuce court: Win % and In %

However, the growth of increasingly sophisticated data and analysis of each and every action in the sport of tennis undermines the logic behind this long-held belief.

ATP players win 51 per cent of points when serving to the forehand corner versus just 49 per cent when serving to the backhand corner.

In other words, primarily directing the second serve to the backhand of an ATP opponent typically reduces the chances of winning the point. This information is derived from detailed analysis for nearly 150 right-handed ATP players with at least 1,000 second serves to right-handed opponents over a 10-year period.

players who often serve to forehand chartTable 1: High frequency and second-serve win per centage to forehand and backhand corners of 150 right-handed ATP players with at least 1,000 second serves to right-handed opponents over a 10-year period.

What’s more, well-placed deuce-side second serves to the forehand corner generate 8.5 per cent more points won than well-placed serves to the backhand corner of the same service box. Perhaps even more surprisingly, second serves to the forehand corner in the deuce court lead to eight per cent more unreturned serves and lead servers to win 17 per cent more deuce-side return points in shorter rallies of five or fewer shots.


Animation 2: Win % heatmap for placement of second serves to Deuce court

All of this goes to highlight the growing importance of accessing and understanding detailed data analysis on Tour to enable players to leverage every marginal gain available to them. This is why Tennis Data Innovations is committed to delivering detailed tracking data on every court across the ATP Tour in 2023, to shed light on the most effective tactics and strategies in tennis.

And what does all this mean in practice? Well, just as we have seen with the inexorable rise of three-pointers in the NBA driven by crunching the data, so we are seeing the second serve to the forehand rise, increasing from 15 per cent in 2012 to 22 per cent in 2022 (a 47 per cent jump).

Novak Djokovic and Daniil Medvedev are two players who have embraced data analysis and who often serve to the forehand on their second serve on both sides of the court with success.

However, other players have been slower to embrace the insights provided by data analytics and we see a number who rarely serve to the forehand. Not surprisingly, they are missing out on crucial points.

Grigor Dimitrov, as an example, may have gained a significant number of points by serving to the forehand corner 25 per cent of the time instead of 10 per cent. The five per cent differential gained on those second serves could have led to several additional matches being won in the course of a season, such are the fine margins in our sport.

In real terms, the difference in Pepperstone ATP Rankings points and prize money foregone by an over-reliance on serving to the backhand could be sizeable.

players who rarely serve to forehand chartTable 2: Low frequency and second-serve win percentage to forehand and backhand corners. Date set of 150 right-handed ATP players with at least 1,000 second serves to right-handed opponents over a 10-year period.

Of course, we should not assume that pushing more second serves to the forehand will automatically increase the win per centage on all of those points. There is undoubtedly an element of surprise with serves to the forehand side currently that underpins its statistical advantage – built on the ingrained expectation of more serves being delivered to the other corner. This raises the question of how much more ATP players should serve to the forehand on second serve? Most players would benefit significantly if they served to the forehand at least 15-20 per cent more than they currently do.

One reason that second serves to the forehand have such a high win per centage is that they are surprising to the returner. Of course, as the per centage of serves by a player to the forehand increases, the win per centage decreases. Our analysis shows that increasing the proportion of serves to the forehand does not decrease the per centage of points won by very much. And more variation in second-serve location will deliver an increase in the win per centage of serves that continue to go to the backhand.

Given ever-improving racquets, string, and training technologies, which lead to faster and more accurate serves, we believe the per centage of serves to the forehand on second serve will continue to rise, with the expectation that one day we will see something closer to parity between the two sides.

Until then, we’ll likely continue to see an enlightened group of players and coaches take advantage of these marginal gains. In isolation, they may not seem like much, but in a sport where winning 51 per cent of the points will generally win you the match, these fine margins can be what separates success from failure.

Editor's Note: This is the first in a three-part series in which Golden Set Analytics and TDI are looking at the increasing prominence and importance of deeper tennis data in helping us all better understand the dynamics of the sport, whether as players, coaches, fans or administrators.

Serbian wins more than 50 per cent of points when he puts return back in play
It all starts and ends with the return landing back in the court.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of return points won by the year-end Top 10 in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings when the return was successfully put back in play highlights a key strategic advantage that Novak Djokovic enjoyed over his closest rivals.

Djokovic was the peak performer at winning both first and second serve points when his return was put back in play. The data set comes from the ATP Serve & Return Tracker and includes 13,215 first and second serve returns from the 2022 season.

First Serve Return Points Won When Return In Play (Top 10 Average = 45.9%)

Imagine an opponent making a powerful first serve and Djokovic successfully blocking it back in play. Who is now favoured to win the point?

Incredibly, Djokovic is.

Djokovic (50.3 per cent) was the only Top 10 player to break through the 50 per cent threshold and win more points than he lost when returning first serves back in play. This statistic helps explain what makes him one of the greatest returners in the history of our sport.

# Player Win Percentage
1 N. Djokovic 50.3%
2 A. Rublev 49.6%
3 C. Alcaraz 49.0%
4 R. Nadal 48.3%
5 F. Auger-Aliassime 47.3%
6 D. Medvedev 44.9%
7 T. Fritz 44.0%
8 S. Tsitsipas 43.8%
9 C. Ruud 41.1%
10 H. Hurkacz 40.4%
- Average 45.9%
Andrey Rublev, who recently reached the semi-finals of the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin, was in second spot, followed by current World No.1, Carlos Alcaraz, in third position. Djokovic won more than 50 per cent of first serve return points when the return was put back in play in five of the past 10 years. His most successful year was 2015, when he won a staggering 53.2 per cent.

Second Serve Return Points Won When Return In Play (Top 10 Average = 54.2%)

Djokovic was even more ruthless at winning second serve points when his return went back in play, winning 61.8 per cent of points. It’s incredible to think that when his opponent makes a second serve and Djokovic successfully returns the ball back in play, the server is only going to win four out of 10 points on average. Alcaraz was the only other Top 10 player to break through the 60 per cent barrier, at 61.4 per cent.

# Player Win Percentage
1 N. Djokovic 61.8%
2 C. Alcaraz 61.4%
3 T. Fritz 55.7%
4 A. Rublev 53.4%
5 F. Auger-Aliassime 53.2%
6 R. Nadal 52.5%
7 A. Medvedev 52.2%
8 C. Ruud 51.3%
9 H. Hurkacz 50.2%
10 S. Tsitsipas 50.2%
- Average 54.2%
2022 was the second-best season in the past 10 years for Djokovic when it came to winning second serve return points when the return was put back in play. His best season was 2014, when he won 62.2 per cent.

Combined 1st & 2nd Serve Return Points Won When Return In Play (Top 10 Average = 49.3%)

Djokovic topped the table when combining first and second serve return points won when the return was put back in play. The four players to win more points than they lost were Djokovic (55.1%), Alcaraz (53.8%), Rublev (51.3%) and Rafael Nadal (50.1%).

# Player Win Percentage
1 N. Djokovic 55.1%
2 C. Alcaraz 53.8%
3 A. Rublev 51.3%
4 R. Nadal 50.1%
5 F. Auger-Aliassime 49.6%
6 T. Fritz 48.8%
7 D. Medvedev 48.1%
8 S. Tsitsipas 46.3%
9 C. Ruud 45.4%
10 H. Hurkacz 44.6%
- Average 49.3%
2022 was the fourth best season in the past 10 for Djokovic in terms of combined first and second serve return points won. His best season was 2016, when he won 61 per cent.

Djokovic went 42-7 in 2022, winning five titles and amassing almost US$10 million dollars in prize money. Putting a prodigious amount of first and second serve returns back in play is the engine room of his winning ways.

Djokovic is holding serve 94 per cent of the time in 2023
Novak Djokovic has been a serving machine so far in 2023.

Returning to action this week in Dubai as he notches a record-breaking 378th week at World No. 1, the Serbian is 12-0 on the young season, with titles at the Adelaide International 1 and the Australian Open. He leads the Tour with Service Games Won at 94.38 per cent (151/160) and sits third with Return Games Won at 32 per cent (48/150). When the world’s best returner is also the hottest server on Tour, it’s lights out for anyone standing on the other side of the net.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Djokovic’s serving prowess in his unbeaten run reveals three specific areas where the Super Serb creates significant separation from his opponents

1: Holding From 15/0 & 0/15
The first point of a service game helps to “set the weather” for the rest of the game. Djokovic is head and shoulders above his 12 opponents in securing a 15/0 lead and holding serve, and also holding serve when he drops the opening point.

Winning The First Point Of The Game
• Djokovic = 75 per cent (120/160)
• Opponents = 66 per cent (99/150)

Djokovic was far more likely to sprint to a 15/0 lead in his service games versus his opponents. He surged to a 15/0 lead 75 per cent of the time, which was considerably higher than the 66 per cent mark from his opponents.

Holding From 15/0
• Djokovic = 95 per cent (114/120)
• Opponents = 74 per cent (73/99)

Djokovic has held serve a jaw-dropping 114 times out of 120 (95 per cent) after winning just the first point of the game. Opponents are nowhere close to that mark, holding just 74 per cent (73/99) of the time.

Holding From 0/15
• Djokovic = 90 per cent (36/40)
• Opponents = 55 per cent (28/51)

This is where the rubber meets the road holding serve for the Serb. Djokovic trailed 0/15 40 times in Adelaide and Melbourne and was still able to hold serve a staggering 90 per cent (36/40) of the time. Opponents could only manage to hold 55 per cent (28/51) of the time. This speaks to superior strategy, mental strength and the unwavering ability to conquer any and all moments of adversity in the match.

2: 2nd Serves To Position 5

Returns

The common strategy for almost all players on tour when hitting second serves in the Ad court is to target the backhand with a jam second serve or kick out wide. Not Djokovic. He launches a sneak attack at the forehand return with slice.

Ad Court 2nd Serve Location/Won
• Position 5 = Won 60 per cent (43/72)
• Position 6 = Won 65 per cent (13/20)
• Position 7 = Won 53 per cent (21/40)
• Position 8 = Won 53 per cent (20/38)

Djokovic hit 72 second serves down the T in the Ad court, winning an eye-opening 60 per cent of those points. He impressively collected four second serve aces and 12 return errors to Position five. Djokovic’s 72 second serves to Position five was almost double the amount to the more traditional location out wide to Position eight, with 38. That’s essentially a strategy flip from the rest of the Tour.

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3: Serve +1 Performance
Djokovic is widely regarded as having one of the best backhands of all time, but his forehand still outshines it on a stats sheet. Djokovic hit 56 per cent forehands as the first shot after the serve, while his opponents were slightly higher at 59 per cent. While the totals were somewhat similar, the win percentages were not.

Serve +1 Forehand Win Percentage
• Djokovic = 67 per cent (216/323)
• Opponents = 47 per cent (202/427)

Serve +1 Backhand Win Percentage
• Djokovic = 61 per cent (156/256)
• Opponents = 40 per cent (117/291)

Overall, Djokovic hit 59 Serve +1 winners, with 50 following his first serve and nine following his second serve. Forty five were Serve +1 forehands and 14 were Serve +1 backhands.

Djokovic’s return strategy and execution have always been a hallmark of his game. Now he is leading the Tour is Service Games Won. It’s an unbeatable combination.

When trailing 0/15, Medvedev hits 64 per cent of serves out wide
Do players change first serve strategy when serving at 15/0 versus 0/15?

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings from the 2022 season uncovers a wide variety of first serve strategies when ahead or behind on the scoreboard after only one point is played in the game. Players clearly factor in where they prefer to serve and where the opponent may be anticipating. Having a clever mix out wide, at the body, and down the T is all about staying a step ahead in the guessing game of first serve location.

But nobody flipped the switch more than Daniil Medvedev.

The 27-year-old former No. 1 is the hottest player on tour after winning Rotterdam, Doha, and Dubai leading into Indian Wells this week. He is on a 14-match win streak and has won 19 of 21 matches to start the season. His different first serve strategy at 15/0 versus 0/15 provides an insight into how he goes about his business of holding serve.

Serving 15/0

According to the Infosys ATP Stats Serve Tracker, Medvedev led the current Top 10 going down the T with his first serve at 15/0. He hit 56 per cent there, which was just slightly higher than Holger Rune at 55 per cent. The players who went the least down the T at 15/0 were Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz, who only went there 36 per cent of the time.

Andrey Rublev was the most prolific going out wide at 15/0, with 54 per cent of first serves hitting that location. The other two players at or above 50 per cent out wide were Taylor Fritz (52%) and Novak Djokovic (50%).

What’s fascinating is that five of the Top 10 hit their first serve down the T more, while the other five targeted out wide more.

Current Top 10: First Serve Location at 15/0 (2022 Season)

Player Wide Body T
D. Medvedev 41% 3% 56%
H. Rune 34% 11% 55%
C. Ruud 41% 6% 53%
S. Tsitsipas 41% 7% 52%
F. Auger-Aliassime 46% 5% 49%
N. Djokovic 50% 4% 46%
T. Fritz 52% 5% 43%
A. Rublev 54% 3% 43%
C. Alcaraz 40% 24% 36%
R. Nadal 46% 18% 36%
Serving 0/15

Medvedev switched lanes at 0/15 and became the player that served wide the most - the exact opposite of what he did at 15/0, being the most prolific with T serves. Medvedev hit 64 per cent of first serves out wide at 0/15 while only hitting 41 per cent at 15/0. When Medvedev needed the point at 0/15, initially pulling the returner wide off the court with his first serve was his primary strategy.

Nadal was the only other player to serve more than 50 per cent out wide at 0/15, at 54 per cent. You can certainly understand that logic with Nadal being left-handed. While the split was even at 15/0 with five players going more wide and five players going T, eight of the 10 players preferred to go down the T at 0/15. The most prolific down the T was Stefanos Tsitsipas at 64 per cent. Players at 50 percent or above down the T were Felix Auger-Aliassime (55%), Andrey Rublev (55%), Djokovic (53%) and Fritz (50%).

Current Top 10: First Serve Location at 0/15 (2022 Season)

Player Wide Body T
D. Medvedev 64% 0% 36%
R. Nadal 54% 15% 31%
C. Ruud 48% 0% 52%
T. Fritz 47% 3% 50%
N. Djokovic 41% 6% 53%
F. Auger-Aliassime 41% 4% 55%
H. Rune 41% 10% 49%
A. Rublev 39% 6% 55%
C. Alcaraz 31% 22% 47%
S. Tsitsipas 31% 5% 64%
Summary

Overall, five players (Medvedev, Djokovic, Fritz, Rublev and Alcaraz) changed their primary first serve location between wide and T when serving at 15/0 versus 0/15. The five players that kept the same primary location were Rune (T), Ruud (T), Tsitsipas (T), Felix Auger-Aliassime (T), and Nadal (wide).

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It’s fascinating to see the variety of serve locations at the two point scores based on preferred locations and the desire to hit it where the opponent does not think it is going to go. Medvedev will look to add to his 14-match win streak at Indian Wells starting this week. Winning the guessing game of serve location will once again be a part of his winning formula.

Alcaraz extracted 239 forehand errors from his opponents, and 201 backhand errors across Indian Wells & Miami
Which shot breaks down more in today's game? The forehand or the backhand?

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of errors from forehand and backhand returns and groundstrokes uncovers a paradigm shift in the modern game. The traditional school of thought was to go after your opponent's backhand and hammer away at it until it breaks. Old-school logic makes perfect sense until you see a stats sheet.

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In today's game, the numbers tell you it's the exact opposite.

It's now about taking time away from the forehand and rushing it into early errors in the rally. Exploit the size of the backswing. Take time away to prepare. Put the offensive shot on defense and watch the errors flow.

The new school of Infosys ATP match statistics clearly shows that throwing heat at forehands in the 0-4 rally length extracts errors at a significantly higher rate than backhands in longer rallies of 5+ shots or even backhands in general. First-strike forehands are a much bigger liability than any of us thought.

The data set is comprised of Carlos Alcaraz's 10 completed matches at the 2023 BNP Paribas Open, which he won, and the recent Miami Open presented by Itau, where he lost in the semi-finals to Jannik Sinner.
Of the 1276 points played, 73 per cent ended in an error, while 27 per cent were winners. We clearly play a sport of errors much more than winners, and forehands dominate this landscape.

Alcaraz Points Won
The number one way (winners or errors) Alcaraz won points was by extracting forehand errors from his opponents in the 0-4 rally length, with 139, or 20 per cent of total points won. Those forehand errors are comprised of three specific shots:

• Forehand return errors
• Serve +1 forehand errors
• Return +1 forehand errors
Overall, Alcaraz extracted 239 forehand errors from his opponents, and 201 backhand errors. Below is the opponent error total.

• Opponent 0-4 forehand errors = 32% (139)
• Opponent 0-4 backhand errors = 29% (129)
• Opponent 5+ forehand errors = 23% (100)
• Opponent 5+ backhand errors = 16% (72)
• Total = 440 errors

Alcaraz forced 61 per cent (268/440) of forehand and backhand return and groundstroke errors in the 0-4 rally length and 39 per cent (172/440) in 5+ rallies. Attack first. Check the scoreboard for an update later.

Opponent Points Won
Alcaraz's opponents also won most of their points (winners & errors) by extracting forehand errors in the 0-4 shot rally length from Alcaraz with 149, or 26 per cent of their total points won.

Overall, opponents extracted 236 forehand errors from Alcaraz and 182 backhand errors.

• Alcaraz 0-4 forehand errors = 36% (149)
• Alcaraz 0-4 backhand errors = 29% (123)
• Alcaraz 5+ forehand errors = 21% (87)
• Alcaraz 5+ backhand errors = 14% (59)
• Total = 418 errors

Combined Points Won
Combining error totals from both players shows that forehand errors in the 0-4 rally length dominate the landscape.

• 0-4 forehand errors = 34% (288)
• 0-4 backhand errors = 29% (252)
• 5+ forehand errors = 22% (187)
• 5+ backhand errors = 15% (131)
• Total = 858 errors

Early forehand errors in the rally occur at more than twice the rate (34% to 15%) as backhand errors in an established point of five shots or more. The large size of the forehand backswing versus the compact backhand backswing is the key. The bigger forehand backswing can be rushed. Contact can be compromised. Forehands simply don't defend as well as backhands.

The modern backhand is built to survive. The modern forehand is built to attack. Therein lies opportunity. The ego of the forehand can be exploited.

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analyses the Greek's clay strategy
Stefanos Tsitsipas has a certain “Je ne sais quoi” on a clay court. Once you study his match metrics on the terre battue, you begin to uncover what it is.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Stefanos Tsitsipas assembling 10 match victories in Monte-Carlo, Madrid and Rome last season identifies the subtleties of clay-court dominance, where power and winners take a back seat to getting the ball out of your opponents’ strike zone to extract errors.

The following five areas of Tsitsipas’ 10 match victories shine a light on the intricate layers of clay-court dominance. The Greek will surely be looking replicate this winning formula at Roland Garros over the following fortnight.

1) Rally Winners & Errors

The first thing to identify is that Tsitsipas won all 10 of his matches in this data set. Surprisingly, he hit fewer rally winners than his opponents.

Rally Winners

Tsitsipas = 149
Opponents = 169
Total = 318
Difference = -20
Rally Unforced Errors

Tsitsipas = 193
Opponents = 231
Total = 424
Difference = +38
Tsitsipas dominated the larger data set of unforced errors. The only match in which he hit more winners than his opponent was a 6-2, 6-7(3), 6-4 victory over Diego Schwartzman in the quarter-finals of Monte Carlo. Tsitsipas clubbed 26 winners to the Argentine’s 21. The biggest deficit was hitting only 15 winners to Alexander Zverev’s 24 when he defeated the German 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 in the semi-finals of the ATP Masters 1000 in Rome.

2) Forehand & Backhand Average Speed

Hitting the ball harder does not always equate to better. Power is just one of the qualities that will force errors or produce winners. You also have consistency, direction, depth, height, spin, court position and taking time away from your opponent to correctly prepare for the shot. As we see below, Tsitsipas was not trying to blow his opponents off the court with raw power.

Average Forehand Speed

Tsitsipas = 119 km/h
Opponents = 126 km/h
Average Backhand Speed

Tsitsipas = 104 km/h
Opponents = 116 km/h
Combined Groundstroke Speed

Tsitsipas = 112 km/h
Opponents = 119 km/h
The data suggests Tsitsipas uses many tools in his bag to claim his clay-court victories.

3) Average Net Clearance

Height is a weapon that takes on more importance on a clay court, as you are able to spin the ball up above your opponent’s strike zone. Tsitsipas is definitely a proponent of using height as one of his many strategic assets.

Average Net Clearance

Tsitsipas = 89 cm
Opponents = 75 cm
Tsitsipas averaged playing higher than his opponent in all 10 matches in the data set. The highest average was 1.01 metres against Alexander Zverev in Monte-Carlo. Zverev averaged 80 cm above the net. Tsitsipas won 6-4, 6-2 in their semi-final encounter.

4) Backhand Hit Point

Tsitsipas prefers to stay deep in the court to lift his one-handed backhand high over the net to make it land deep on the other side. Some players prefer to step in and rip backhands. That’s not how the Greek goes about his business. He uses his backhand more to push opponents back and get the ball out of their strike zone. Another benefit is that he has now has more time to hit run-around forehands in the Ad court.

Tsitsipas Average Backhand Hit Point

Inside The Baseline = 10%
Within 2 Metres Of The Baseline = 47%
Past 2 Metres = 43%
Opponents Average Backhand Hit Point

Inside The Baseline = 17%
Within 2 Metres Of The Baseline = 54%
Past 2 Metres = 29%
5) Rally Length / Points Won

Tsitsipas shows versatility in his game by dominating both short and long rallies on clay. This helps when playing different game styles that either demand more aggression or patience to get ahead in the point.

Points Won Under Nine Shots

Tsitsipas = 686 (55%)
Opponents = 562 (45%)
Total = 1248
Points Won In Nine Shots Or More

Tsitsipas = 102 (56%)
Opponents = 79 (44%)
Total = 181
Tsitsipas looks at home on a clay court. It offers him the time and space he enjoys to craft an advantage. Harder is not necessarily better. He is a master tactician when using height and depth.

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analyses Spaniard's grass game
Can Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon this year?

The short answer is an emphatic yes after a spectacular dress rehearsal at the Cinch Championships last week in London, where he won his maiden grass-court title.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Alcaraz’s five matches identified the Spaniard was dialed in by dominating opponents in the “first strike” rally length of 0-4 shots. Overall, Alcaraz played around 70 per cent of his points in “0-4”, meaning that every seven out of 10 points he only hit the ball in the court a maximum of two times. Grass-court tennis is still very much about the serve, return, and the the ensuing two shots.

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Alcaraz Rally Length Played

• 0-4 Shots = 71% (494)
• 5-8 Shots = 22% (154)
• 9+ Shots = 7% (46)

Overall, Alcaraz won 54 per cent (375) of his points in five matches to win the tournament, showing just how close the margins are to secure victory. Another way to interpret this data is to recognise losing 46 per cent (319 points) of total points represents a good week at the office.

The rally length data clearly identifies that Alcaraz feels right at home on the grass, dominating the shorter rallies of 0-4 shots more than the other two rally lengths.

Alcaraz Rally Length Won

• 0-4 Shots = +30 (262 won/232 lost)
• 5-8 Shots = +18 (86 won/68 lost)
• 9+ Shots = +8 (27 won/19 lost)

Alcaraz forged his most significant winning margin in the 0-4 shot rally length, winning thirty more points than he lost for the tournament. He was only +18 in the 5-8 shot rally length and just +8 in the 9+ rally length. These Queens Club grass-court match metrics are the ideal preparation to take the title at SW19.

What’s fascinating is that Alcaraz played more one-shot rallies (just one ball in play) than any other rally length for the five matches. Following is the breakdown of rally length in the first four shots.

Rallies Played: Balls In The Court

• One Shot = 32% (160)
• Three Shots = 29% (145)
• Two Shots = 24% (121)
• Four Shots = 14% (69)

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A three-shot rally jumps a two-shot rally because of the halo effect of the serve. Alcaraz’s power-forehand and rock-solid backhand naturally devour any weak returns from his opponents.

Alcaraz has already proven that his game is well-suited to excel on hard and clay courts, and his effort at Queen's Club ticked the box for grass courts as well. Alcaraz plays with exceptional balance, and his compact forehand and backhand backswings are hard to extract errors from.

Alcaraz is back to world No. 1 in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings after winning the Cinch Championships. He held a silver trophy as a reward. Don’t be surprised to see a golden trophy in his hands in two weeks' time.

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers reveal the Spaniard's return prowess
There are four ways a point starts in tennis. Carlos Alcaraz is the best-performing player in more than a decade in one of them. Which one do you think it is?

The four ways a point starts are:

Your first serve.
Your second serve.
Opponent’s first serve.
Opponent’s second serve.
Alcaraz is currently No. 1 in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings and has amassed a formidable 47-4 record this season, including six titles, coming into the National Bank Open Presented by Rogers in Toronto.

So, where is he currently the peak performer so far in 2023? An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis uncovers precisely where the 20-year-old Spaniard sits alone at the top of the mountain.


2023: Alcaraz Category Ratings (Before Toronto)

1st - First Serve Return Points Won (36.87%)
2nd - Second Serve Return Points Won (54.33%)
3rd - Second Serve Points Won (55.95%)
21st - First Serve Points Won (72.75%)
Alcaraz is winning an eye-opening 36.87 per cent (924/2506) of first-serve return points from 51 matches this season. He is the only player on the ATP Tour to break through the 35 per cent threshold in 2023. The four players who have won north of 34 per cent are:

Carlos Alcaraz - 36.87%
Novak Djokovic - 34.47%
Francisco Cerundolo - 34.36%
Daniil Medvedev - 34.22%

Alcaraz’s first-serve return win percentage so far in 2023 is the highest since 2012, when Rafael Nadal won 37.84 per cent. Spanish players have dominated this specific stat since official match statistics were first recorded in 1991. Spanish players to finish year-end No. 1 in this category include Nadal (2005, 2008, 2014, 2016-19), David Ferrer (2015), Fernando Vicente (1999), Alex Corretja (1997), Carlos Costa (1996) and Javier Sanchez (1993).

A secret to Alcaraz’s success in winning points against first serves may very well be his adaptability to find the sweet spot of where to stand based on the surface he is playing. The following data comes from the Infosys ATP Stats Second Screen.

Alcaraz: Average Contact Point Behind Baseline vs. First Serves

Queens - Grass Court
Final vs. De Minaur = 1.84 m
SF vs. Korda = 1.48 m
QF vs. Dimitrov = 1.29 m
R16 vs. Lehecka = 1.16 m
R32 vs. Rinderknech = 1.69 m
Average = 1.49 m

Indian Wells - Hard Court
Final vs. Medvedev = 1.52 m
SF vs. J. Sinner = 1.49 m
QF vs. F. Auger-Aliassime = 1.54 m
R16 vs. J. Draper = 1.73 m
R32 vs.T. Griekspoor = 1.84 m
R64 vs. T. Kokkinakis = 2.18 m
Average = 1.71 m

Madrid - Clay Court
Final vs. Struff = 5.0 m
Semi vs. Coric = 5.77 m
QF vs. Khachanov = 4.26 m
R16 vs. Zverev = 4.74 m
R32 vs. Dimitrov = 4.01 m
R64 vs. Ruusuvuori = 5.26 m
Average = 4.84 m

Alcaraz made contact just 1.49 metres on average behind the baseline against first serves to take the title at Queens. He adjusted further back to win on hard courts at Indian Wells, averaging 1.71 metres behind the baseline. He then moved more than double that distance further back to take the title in Madrid, making contact an average of 4.84 metres behind the baseline.

Alcaraz’s clean, simple, and ruthlessly efficient technique is ideally suited to return powerful first serves. His court savvy also helps him find the bliss point of where to stand.

Former World No. 1 is better at defending short returns than any other player... by quite some margin!
Depth is Daniil’s diamond.

Daniil Medvedev’s unconventional, ultra-deep return position often sees him standing six metres or more behind the baseline to return first serves. What looks like a distinct disadvantage at first glance is actually a cleverly disguised trap. Medvedev is a peak performer at winning points against first serves compared to other elite players.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of return depth against first serves from the current Top 10 in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings uncovers Medvedev’s paradoxical performance. Standing deep is not hurting him from returning deep, and in fact, he leads the Top 10 in one critical first-serve return statistic.

The data set comes from the Infosys ATP Return Tracker from the 2023 season (prior to Toronto) and focuses only on first-serve returns that land between the service line and baseline. Missed returns and returns in the service box are omitted.

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First-Serve Return Depth
The first thing to understand is that once the first-serve return has made it back past the service line, most of these returns land closer to the service line than the baseline. The current Top 10 average 61 per cent of their first-serve returns closer to the service line and 39 per cent closer to the baseline. Even though Medvedev returns from an ultra-deep location, he was tied for third best in this category.

Returns Landing Closer To Baseline Than Service Line
1. Jannik Sinner = 47%
2. Andrey Rublev = 46%
T3. Daniil Medvedev = 43%
T3. Stefanos Tsitsipas = 43%
5. Frances Tiafoe = 40%
6. Holger Rune = 38%
7. Novak Djokovic = 37%
8. Taylor Fritz = 36%
9. Carlos Alcaraz = 35%
10. Casper Ruud = 24%

It’s interesting to identify that Ruud is the other Top 10 player who stands in an ultra-deep location to return serve but does not average returning nearly as deep as Medvedev.

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First-Serve Return Win Percentage
Establishing that returns typically land closer to the service line than the baseline helps zero in on Medvedev’s first-serve return prowess. This is precisely where he leads this elite group of players with points won.

Points Won: Return Lands Closer To Service Line Than Baseline
1. D. Medvedev = 61%
2. C. Alcaraz = 53%
3. H. Rune = 52%
T4. A. Rublev = 50%
T4. N. Djokovic = 50%
6. F. Tiafoe = 48%
7. S. Tsitsipas = 47%
8. T. Fritz = 46%
9. J. Sinner = 43%
10. C. Ruud = 43%

Medvedev was head and shoulders above his peers with his win percentage in this category with 61 per cent of points won. The Top 10 average was just 49 per cent. Medvedev was eight percentage points clear of second-placed Alcaraz (61% to 53%) and was one of only three players to win north of 50 per cent.

Medvedev’s superior win percentage may very well boil down to his “defensive-ready” court position. When a return is hit shorter (landing closer to the service line), the server will naturally be looking to step in and attack. The returner will, in turn, look to move back to defend. Since Medvedev is already standing deep, he does not get as rushed or pushed onto his back foot as a typical returner who hugs the baseline.

Medvedev has cleverly pre-built in extra time for himself.

When the return did land closer to the baseline than the service line, Medvedev was the second-best performer in the Top 10.

Points Won: Return Lands Closer To Baseline Than Service Line
1. C. Alcaraz = 63%
2. D. Medvedev = 58%
3. N. Djokovic = 57%
T4. S. Tsitsipas = 54%
T4. A. Rublev = 54%
6. F. Tiafoe = 53%
7. H. Rune = 52%
8. J. Sinner = 50%
T9 T. Fritz = 44%
T9 C. Ruud = 44%

Medvedev’s first-serve return prowess defies standard convention. By standing so far back to return serve, he allows the ball to slow down and not rush him. He treats the return much more like a regular groundstroke than his competitors, who typically stand closer to the baseline, looking to rebound the ball quickly to the server to take their time away.

Medvedev shouldn’t be able to regularly return the ball so deep from so far back, but that’s precisely what he does. The vast expanses of Arthur Ashe Stadium at the US Open are tailor-made for him. He has plenty of room to roam as far as he wants to return.

It seems he is reacting, but he has discovered the art of dictating from the deep. Don’t be surprised to see Medvedev adding a second US Open title in New York this year.

Review of Spaniard's best seasons
To celebrate Rafal Nadal becoming a global brand ambassador for Infosys, ATP's digital innovation partner, ATPTour.com looks at the evolution of Rafa’s game and the Spaniard’s key stats during his record-breaking career.

Rafael Nadal exploded onto the global tennis scene in 2005, winning 11 ATP Tour tournaments, including five ATP Masters 1000 events and his maiden Roland Garros title. He started the year ranked No. 51 in the Pepperstone ATP Rankings and finished No. 2.

A star was born.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Nadal’s illustrious career identifies how champions evolve by continually adding to their game - and also changing the game along the way.

Let's start at the beginning.

2005 Season (79-10)
The 18-year-old Spaniard got hot in April and May, going on a 17-match win streak to capture titles in Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, Rome and Roland Garros. He would finish with 11 titles, representing the most prolific year of his career.

What powered this sudden rise to stardom? An insatiable appetite to devour return points. He won a staggering 45 per cent of all return points in 2005, which was the best of his career. His specific area of expertise was facing second serves, where he won 57 per cent of return points. That was a personal record he equaled in five other seasons.

Nadal made a seismic splash onto the tennis scene in 2005, but it was only beginning. He kept adding to his game season after season.

2010 Season (71-10)
Nadal has described this season as the best of his career, and the trophy haul is something to behold. Nadal owned the clay court season with titles in Monte-Carlo, Madrid, Rome, and Roland Garros. He then backed up that dominant performance with victories at Wimbledon and the US Open.

It was Nadal’s serve that stood tall in this spectacular season. He saved 71 per cent of break points, which was the best in any season of his career. He also served fewer double faults (59) in any season (excluding 2023). Until 2010, he was a nightmare from the returning side of the equation. He evolved his game to a whole new level to dominate when serving as well.

Nadal also converted more break points (49 per cent - tie with 2020) and set a personal single-season record for the most 1st serve return points won (38 per cent).

2013 Season (75-7)
After only three titles in 2011 and four in 2012, Nadal roared to prominence with ten titles in 2013, including ATP Masters 1000 titles in Indian Wells, Madrid, Rome, Canada, and Cincinnati. He added Roland Garros and the US Open to his dazzling 2013 resume.

Nadal won 91.5 percent of his matches, the highest win percentage of any season where he won 50+ matches.

2017 Season (68-12)
After three seasons from 2014-16 that only produced one Grand Slam title, Nadal bounced back with a vengeance in 2017 to capture Roland Garros and the US Open, along with ATP Masters 1000 titles in Monte-Carlo and Madrid.

Nadal tied his best season for total points won (56 per cent) and service points won (70 per cent).

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2019 Season (58-7)
Two Grand Slam titles (Roland Garros/US Open) and two ATP Masters 1000 titles (Rome/Canada) delivered the No. 1 ranking back to the Spaniard at the end of the 2019 season. He held onto it for 12 weeks, moving into the start of 2020.

The 2019 season delivered several personal best statistical markers for Nadal, evidence of a champion taking his game to a new level. This time, the focus came back to his serve. He won more first serve points (76 per cent) and second serve points (60 per cent - tie with 2010) than any other season of his stellar career. He also put up personal best numbers for service games won (90 per cent - tied with 2010) and service points won (70 per cent - tied with 2010 & 2017).

2022 Season (39-8)
Nadal got off to a flyer, winning 21 straight matches, including the Australian Open, and would add a 14th Roland Garros title later in the season. Unfortunately, multiple injuries (foot, rib, abdomen) cut his season short when he appeared to be playing as good, or better, than at any time since 2005.

Nadal has cleverly evolved his game over the years, partly in response to developing the necessary tools to defeat the player on the other side of the net and from pushing himself to break through existing boundaries to redefine what's possible in our sport.

Italian takes 12-0 season record into the year's first ATP Masters 1000
March 04, 2024
Jannik Sinner is No. 3 in the PIF ATP Rankings.Peter Staples for ATP Tour
Jannik Sinner is No. 3 in the PIF ATP Rankings.
By Craig O'Shannessy
The holy grail of tennis is not consistency.

Instead, it is 'first strike'. The first two times you touch the ball in a point are more important than everything that follows.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Jannik Sinner’s triumphant 2024 Australian Open campaign identifies the 22-year-old Italian forged his advantage much more in shorter rallies than longer ones. As he looks to extended his perfect 12-0 season at the year's first ATP Masters 1000 at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells this week and next, Sinner is likely to stick to his aggressive approach in pursuit of this third consecutive title.

This hidden truth of 'first-strike' tennis played out in greater detail in Sinner’s dazzling Australian Open semi-final victory against the No. 1 in the PIF ATP Rankings, Novak Djokovic, and against World No. 3 Daniil Medvedev in the final.

Sinner is the latest iteration of what it takes to win at the pinnacle of our sport: Dominate the more abundant short rallies, weather the storm in the longer ones, take home the silverware.

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Three Rally Lengths
The length of the rally can be divided into three distinct segments.

0-4 Shots (First Strike)
5-8 Shots (Patterns Of Play)
9+ Shots (Extended Rallies)

The first thing to examine is volume. Which rally length did Sinner play the most?

Sinner Total Points Played In Seven Matches
0-4 Shots = 59%
5-8 Shots = 24%
9+ Shots = 17%

Sinner played considerably more points in the 0-4 shot rally length (59%) than the other two longer rally lengths combined (41%). Sinner’s 0-4 percentage played was not as high as the tournament average of 66%, but it very much represented the lion's share of his points.

Sinner Total Points Played vs. Djokovic & Medvedev
0-4 Shots = 56%
5-8 Shots = 26%
9+ Shots = 18%

You would expect Djokovic and Medvedev to strategically extend rallies against Sinner, to wear him down in prolonged baseline exchanges and avoid his strong suit in shorter rallies. It didn’t materialise, as 9+ shot rallies only rose one percentage point (17% to 18%) against the duo.

But rally length totals only tell part of the story. The winning performance (points won vs. lost) at each rally length highlighted the Italian's specific areas of expertise and his desire to force opponents to miss early in the point, rather than be patient and wait for them to miss later.

Sinner Points Won/Lost In Seven Matches
0-4 Shots: 467 won/355 lost = +112 (57% won)
5-8 Shots: 180 won/151 lost = +29 (54% won)
9+ Shots: 123 won/116 lost = +7 (51% won)


Sinner significantly outperformed his rivals in the 'first strike' rally length, winning a sizeable 112 more points (467 won/355 lost) than he lost. He also won a higher percentage (57%) of these rallies than in the 5-8 shots and 9+ shots segments. To the eyeball test, Sinner looked like he dominated in long rallies just as much as shorter ones during the Aussie Open fortnight, but he actually only won seven more points than he lost (123 won/116 lost) in 9+ shot rallies through seven matches.

Our eyes deceive us. A spreadsheet doesn’t.

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Sinner Points Won/Lost vs. Djokovic & Medvedev
0-4 Shots:162 won/124 lost = +38 (57% won)
5-8 Shots: 63 won/69 lost = -6 (48% won)
9+ Shots: 45 won/ 46 lost = -1 (49% won)

When the point was extended to five shots or longer, Djokovic and Medvedev took the honours against Sinner, winning seven more points (115 to 108). It was the Italian who dominated the 'first strike' rally length, crafting a tournament-winning 38-shot advantage (162 to 124). Once again, the highest percentage of points won for Sinner was in the 0-4 shot rally length, at 57%.

It’s important to recognise that Sinner and his opponents only hit the ball in the court a maximum of two shots each in the abundant 0-4 shot rally length. Tennis feels like a sport where dominance in longer rallies is more important than shorter rallies. It’s not. Short rallies simply represent the biggest piece of the pie.