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[Damian]

Alcaraz the Two-Touch Titan: The Spaniard's secret to grass-court success

Spoiler:

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers looks at what makes Alcaraz stand out on grass
June 20, 2024
Carlos Alcaraz won his first two grass-court titles in 2023.
Getty Images
Carlos Alcaraz won his first two grass-court titles in 2023.
By ATP Staff
Grass court tennis is still very much a two-touch sport.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Carlos Alcaraz’s undefeated run at the cinch Championships last year identified the vast majority of his points played at the grass court event were a maximum of just two touches for each player - four shots total. Three out of every four points (75%) were in the 0-4 shot rally length, where he carved out his most significant point-total advantage (+27) over his five opponents.

2023 Queen's: Alcaraz Rally Length

RALLY LENGTH Total Played % Played
0-4 Shots 521 75%
5-8 Shots 140 20%
9+ Shots 35 5%
TOTAL 696 100%
Alcaraz played a dominant 75 per cent (521/696) of all points in the 0-4 shot rally length to win the first grass court title of his career last year at the cinch Championships. The first four shots include: serve, return, Serve +1 (first shot after the serve), Return +1 (first shot after the return)

Alcaraz won 27 more points than his opponents in 0-4 shots, 20 more points in 5-8 shots, and just nine more points in rallies of nine shots or longer. What enabled Alcaraz to be so strong in shorter rallies was his serve performance. He won 50 of 56 (89%) of his serve games, made 66 per cent (236/357) of his first serves, and won 76 per cent (179/236) of them.

Alcaraz’s primary first-serve strategy involved pulling opponents off the court to immediately open holes to attack.

First Serve Location: Deuce Court Wide = 44% (57) Body = 25% (33) T = 31% (41)

First Serve Location: Ad Court Wide = 44% (46) Body = 21% (22) T = 35% (36)

Alcaraz sent down 25 aces and committed nine double faults for the tournament. He had 39 per cent (91/235) of first serves unreturned, and 18 per cent (20/112) of second serves didn’t come back into play, helping facilitate his “first strike” strategy. Impressively, he saved 73 per cent (16/22) of break point opportunities on serve, which was a full ten percentage points higher (66%) than his personal tour average.

When it came to second serves, Alcaraz almost exclusively went with a kick serve to his opponent’s backhand return location (note: all five opponents were right-handed).

Second Serve Location: Deuce Court: Wide = 7% (4), Body = 35% (18), T = 58% (30)

Second Serve Location: Ad Court Wide = 45% (27) , Body = 45% (27) , T = 10% (6)

When rallies did develop, it was Alcaraz’s forehand that did the most damage from the back of the court.

Total Groundstrokes: Forehands = 58% (379) , Backhands = 42% (278)

Shot Quality: Forehands = 8.5 (379) , Backhands = 7.3 (278)

Shots In: Forehands = 82% (309/379) , Backhands = 79% (221/278)

Average Speed: Forehands = 73 mph, Backhands = 60 mph

Alcaraz won his opening round match of the cinch Championships 6-1, 7-5 against Francisco Cerundolo on Tuesday with similar match metrics to his successful 2023 campaign. Alcaraz won 39 points to 33 in the 0-4 shot rally length, put 81 per cent (55/68) of forehands in the court and held serve nine times out of 10. It was an ideal first match returning to grass and an ominous warning to opponents that he is picking up right where he left off from lifting the silverware last year.

https://www.atptour.com/en/news/alcaraz ... -june-2024

[Damian]

Backhand abundance: Medvedev's knuckleball in an era of fastballs

Spoiler:

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analyses Medvedev's backhand
September 24, 2024
Daniil Medvedev hits a higher percentage of backhands than anyone on the ATP Tour.
ATP Tour
Daniil Medvedev hits a higher percentage of backhands than anyone on the ATP Tour.
By Craig O'Shannessy
Nobody loves their backhand more than Daniil Medvedev.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers groundstroke analysis from the 2024 season identifies Medvedev as the only player in the Top 20 who hits more backhands than forehands. The data set is from ATP matches on Hawk-Eye courts. Medvedev is the king of the “backhand cage” strategy, where he locks opponents into a sharp-angle backhand ad-court exchange, daring them to take on more risk by attempting to escape his clutches down the line.

It’s a damned if you do, and damned if you don’t predicament for Medvedev’s opponents. They have little chance of outlasting him backhand to backhand, while at the same time hitting down the line to escape the backhand lockdown pattern also comes with elevated risk.

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The six players in the Top 20 of the PIF ATP Rankings who hit the highest percentage of backhands are:

1) Daniil Medvedev 53.1%
2) Alex de Minaur 49.4%
3) Taylor Fritz 49%
4) Sebastian Korda 48.9%
5) Novak Djokovic 48.9%
6) Frances Tiafoe 48.2%

What is fascinating is that Medvedev is also the leader in the Top 20 putting the most backhands in the court. He was the only player in the data set who put north of 90 per cent of his backhands in play.

The six players who put at least 87 per cent of their backhands in the court are:

1) Daniil Medvedev 90.2%
2) Novak Djokovic 88.3%
3) Jack Draper 88%
4) Casper Ruud 87.8%
5) Alexander Zverev 87.3%
6) Alex de Minaur 87%

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Medvedev hit 3,253 backhands in the data set. He only missed 319. The ATP Tour average for backhand speed is 68 mph. Medvedev’s backhand is precisely that. He is not over-cooking this shot by trying to play through opponents, but he is also not just pushing it in either.

Medvedev rarely uses slice off his backhand wing. The Tour average is 21 per cent backhand slice in 2024. Medvedev is only at nine percent. He would much rather contort his body into an unorthodox position to shovel the ball back flat and deep, almost always giving his opponents nothing to work with.

Medvedev hits his backhand flatter than most. The Tour average for backhand topspin is 1,775 rpm. Medvedev averages just 1,496 rpm. Flatter equals lower. The Tour average for backhand height over the net is 0.73 metres. Medvedev is at 0.69 metres. Opponents are used to a higher ball with topspin. All Medvedev cares about is making his opponents uncomfortable.

Medvedev’s backhand is simply a different animal.

There is absolutely nothing about Medvedev’s backhand that opponents look forward to. He puts a ridiculous amount of backhands in play. It comes at you almost dead flat at the bottom of your strike zone. Opponents don’t know what to do with it except shovel it back cross court. That’s the first mistake. Trying to attack Medvedev’s backhand encourages overhitting. That’s the second mistake.

Medvedev is a throwback in an age of more forehands and more raw groundstroke power. His backhand confuses and disorientates. It’s a knuckleball in an era of fastballs. As the Tour migrates back to outdoor hard courts in Asia and indoor hard courts in Europe to finish the year, Medvedev will be right at home on his favourite surface doing Medvedev things that completely confound opponents.

https://www.atptour.com/en/news/medvede ... ember-2024

[Damian]

Dimitrov's damaging forehand tops the charts

Spoiler:

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analyses Dimitrov forehand
October 30, 2024
Grigor Dimitrov hits a bigger forehand than anyone on the ATP Tour.
ATP Tour
Grigor Dimitrov hits a bigger forehand than anyone on the ATP Tour.
By Craig O'Shannessy
Grigor Dimitrov’s forehand is a cannon.

An ATP Infosys Beyond The Numbers analysis of TDI data of groundstroke speed, spin, and net clearance of the current Top 10 at ATP events over the past three years identifies that nobody blasts his forehand bigger than the 33-year-old Bulgarian.

Dimitrov’s career-high PIF ATP Ranking was No. 3 back in 2017. He started 2022 at No. 28 and has climbed back to No. 9, and ripping forehands has definitely helped pave the way back to the upper echelon of our sport.

The data set is also broken down by surface into the following four categories.
• Indoor hard
• Outdoor hard
• Clay
• Grass

The Top 10 average for forehand speed is 75 mph. Dimitrov is the only player in the data set to reach the 80 mph threshold on any surface. Below are the three players who reached the top two speeds.

Average Forehand Speed
1. 80 mph = Dimitrov (outdoor hard)
2. 80 mph = Dimitrov (clay)
3. 79 mph = Dimitrov (indoor hard)
4. 79 mph = Fritz (indoor hard)
5. 79 mph = Rublev (indoor hard)

Dimitrov won the Brisbane International Presented By Evie to start 2024, defeating World No. 8 Holger Rune, 7-6(5), 6-4 in the final. Dimitrov’s average forehand speed was a cracking 81 mph against Rune and elevated to 82 mph in his second-round victory over Daniel Altmaier.

Interestingly, Hubert Hurkacz occupied three of the slowest four forehand speeds, with 69 mph on grass being the slowest in the data set. It’s important to note that faster does not always represent better. A variety of speed, spin, depth, and direction help make all forehands a dangerous weapon.

Jannik Sinner and Alexander Zverev lead the pack with backhand speed, occupying the five fastest backhands in the Top 10. The Top 10 average is 68 mph. Sinner and Zverev blew well past that speed milestone.

Average Backhand Speed
1. 75 mph = Sinner (clay)
2. 73 mph = Sinner (outdoor hard)
3. 73 mph = Sinner (indoor hard)
4. 73 mph = Zverev (clay)
5. 72 mph = Zverev (indoor hard)

Sinner and Zverev have met once on clay in the past three seasons, with Zverev winning 5-7, 6-3, 7-6(5) in the 2022 Rolex Monte Carlo Masters quarter-finals. Sinner’s average backhand speed was a blistering 76 mph, while Zverev’s was 75 mph. There was no holding back from either player off the backhand wing.

Hurkacz on grass, at 59 mph, registered the slowest average backhand speed in the Top 10.

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When it comes to hitting the heaviest ball with the most spin, just two players occupied the leading six spots with forehand spin: Casper Ruud and Carlos Alcaraz.

Average Forehand Spin
1. 3291 rpm = Ruud (clay)
2. 3207 rpm = Ruud (outdoor hard)
3. 3177 rpm = Alcaraz (outdoor hard)
4. 3141 rpm = Ruud (outdoor hard)
5. 3056 rpm = Alcaraz (clay)
6. 3055 rpm = Alcaraz (indoor hard)

These two players last met in the 2023 Beijing ATP 500 quarter-finals, where Alcaraz won 6-4, 6-2. The Spaniard crushed his forehand, averaging a jaw-dropping 3316 rpm, with Ruud also breaking the 3000 rpm threshold at 3175 pm. Both players enjoy hitting massive amounts of forehand spin to get the ball to kick high and heavy above their opponent’s groundstroke strike zone.

The Top 10 forehand spin average was 2708 rpm. Once again, Hurkacz on grass, at 2085 pm, was at the bottom of the table with the least amount of forehand spin.

Dimitrov possesses the only one-handed backhand in the Top 10, and it’s somewhat surprising to see him elevate to the top of the player list when it comes to hitting the heaviest backhand. In fact, the leading seven spots are all occupied by Dimitrov and Ruud.

Average Backhand Spin
1. 2681 rpm = Dimitrov (clay)
2. 2651 rpm = Ruud (clay)
3. 2606 rpm = Ruud (outdoor hard
4. 2580 rpm = Dimitrov (indoor hard)
5. 2576 rpm = Dimitrov (outdoor hard)
6. 2572 rpm = Ruud (indoor hard)
7. 2399 rpm = Dimitrov (grass)

These two players have only met once in the past three years, with Dimitrov winning 6-3, 7-5 in the 2022 Monte Carlo round of 16. Ruud averaged a massive 2877 backhand rpm, while Dimitrov was at 2647 rpm. Height plus depth plus this amount of spin makes it almost impossible for opponents to successfully step into the ball to attack.

Speed and spin also produce a height above the net metric, and it’s no surprise to see the leading two forehand spots occupied by Ruud on clay (0.89 metres) and Alcaraz on clay at (0.87 metres). On the backhand wing, Ruud occupied the leading three spots, with those being on clay (1.12 metres), outdoor hard (1.04 metres), and indoor hard (0.92 metres).

The Top 10 are incredibly adept at blending speed, spin, and height to produce a groundstroke that feels ideal to execute and makes their opponents very uncomfortable on the other side of the net.

https://www.atptour.com/en/news/dimitro ... tober-2024

[Damian]

Sinner's stunning stat that no other player comes close to matching...

Spoiler:

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analyses Sinner's comeback ability
November 12, 2024
Jannik Sinner is the sole player in the Top 100 of the PIF ATP Rankings with a winning record after losing the first set.
ATP Tour
Jannik Sinner is the sole player in the Top 100 of the PIF ATP Rankings with a winning record after losing the first set.
By Craig O'Shannessy
Jannik Sinner is the comeback kid.

The 23-year-old Italian has dropped the opening set 14 times over the past 12 months. He has remarkably won 11 of those matches. An ATP Infosys Beyond The Numbers analysis of the Top 100 in the PIF ATP Rankings over the past 52 weeks identifies Sinner as the only player to possess a winning record after failing to win the opening set of his match.

It’s a stunning statistic that positions the 23-year-old Italian head and shoulders above his rivals with the ability to turn around matches that were initially not going his way. The table below shows the leading 10 players from the past 52 weeks coming back to win the match after dropping the opening set.

Past 52 weeks. Winning The Match After Losing The First Set

Player % Won W/L
J. Sinner 78.6% 11-3
A. Zverev 50.0% 18-18
C. Alcaraz 47.1% 8-9
A. De Minaur 46.2% 12-14
H. Medjedovic 45.5% 5-6
H. Hurkacz 41.7% 10-14
B. Shelton 40.6% 13-19
J. Shang 40.0% 6-9
D. Medvedev 38.5% 10-16
T. Paul 36.8% 7-12
Sinner is the only player with a winning record after losing set one. Alexander Zverev is the only player to at least break even, winning 18 matches while also losing 18. The rest of the pack are all in a deficit.

Sinner’s most recent comeback after losing the opening set was in the round of 32 at the ATP Masters 1000 in Shanghai against Tomas Martin Etcheverry. The Argentinian took the opening set 7-6(3), primarily by winning 55 per cent (6/11) second serve return points. But Etcheverry would only be able to win 41% (7/17) against Sinner’s second serve in the second and third sets.

Sinner also lost the opening set and won the match one other time on the Asian Swing this year, defeating Nicolas Jarry 4-6, 6-3, 6-1 in the round of 32 at the China Open in Beijing. Once again, it was performance around second serves that turned the match in the Italian’s favor. Sinner won 57% (4/7) second serve return points in the opening set. But he applied the blowtorch to this area in the second and third sets, with Etcheverry only winning two of 19 second serve points in the remaining two sets.

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It’s interesting to note that no player in the modern era has a winning record over his career after losing the first set. Rod Laver is the only player that won 50% (92/92), with Novak Djokovic in second place (44.5%), followed by Bjorn Borg (43.7%), Pete Sampras (43.6%) and Ivan Lendl (43.4%).

Sinner is almost untouchable after winning the opening set, racking up a 62-4 (94%) record over the past 52 weeks. Novak Djokovic leads the tour in this category, going a perfect 43 for 43 after winning the first set. Sinner is also the leading performer against the Top 10, notching up an impressive 17-6 record against the game’s elite.

Getting ahead of Sinner is one thing. Finishing him off is another.

https://www.atptour.com/en/news/sinner- ... ember-2024