mtenis.com.pl

Winning at the Nitto ATP Finals often requires players to raise their games to another level. And with the 2018 season finale less than two months away, Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers investigates which players have best lifted their games during the most recent season finales.

During the past three Nitto ATP Finals, only two players have won a higher percentage of points at the season-ending event than they did during the regular season. An analysis of who competed in the 2015, 2016 and 2017 Nitto ATP Finals at The O2 in London highlights that the elite level of competition for every match dictates that most players walk away from the tournament losing more points than they win.

Grigor Dimitrov leads the pack in the past three years with the highest percentage of points won in London at 55.4 per cent. Last year, Dimitrov won a very respectable 53 per cent of points in the regular season, and improved that by 2.4 percentage points to capture the biggest title of his career.

The only other player to perform better in London in November than everywhere else from January to October was Novak Djokovic in 2016. He won 54.9 per cent of his points in the regular season, and inched a little higher to win an even 55 per cent of his points in the last ATP World Tour tournament of the year.

During the past three years, no other player has been able to increase the percentage of points won at the Nitto ATP Finals over their regular season performances.

2015-2017 Percentage Points Won: Regular Season vs. Nitto ATP Finals

Player

Nitto ATP Finals - Year Played

W / L

Season Win %

Nitto ATP Finals Win %

G. Dimitrov

2017

5-0

53.0%

55.4%

N. Djokovic

2016

4-1

54.9%

55.0%

R. Federer

2015

4-1

55.0%

53.5%

N. Djokovic

2015

5-1

55.0%

53.5%

R. Nadal

2015

3-1

53.4%

53.1%

A. Murray

2016

5-0

54.5%

53.0%

R. Federer

2017

3-1

54.9%

52.8%

M. Raonic

2016

2-2

53.0%

51.8%

D. Goffin

2017

3-2

52.0%

50.0%

A. Zverev

2017

1-2

51.9%

49.3%

S. Wawrinka

2015

2-2

52.0%

49.0%

D. Thiem

2017

1-2

51.8%

48.8%

A. Murray

2015

1-2

53.6%

48.5%

M. Cilic

2016

1-2

52.1%

48.4%

M. Cilic

2017

0-3

53.0%

48.2%

J. Sock

2017

2-2

50.4%

47.9%

K. Nishikori

2016

1-3

52.4%

47.5%

G. Monfils

2016

0-2

52.6%

47.3%

K. Nishikori

2015

1-2

52.6%

47.3%

R. Nadal

2017

0-1

55.5%

46.9%

S. Wawrinka

2016

1-2

52.4%

46.5%

T. Berdych

2015

0-3

53.1%

45.7%

D. Thiem

2016

1-2

51.7%

45.5%

D. Ferrer

2015

0-3

53.1%

44.9%

P. Carreno Busta

2017

0-2

50.9%

42.7%

D. Goffin

2016

0-1

51.7%

40.4%

All players who have competed in the Nitto ATP Finals in the past three seasons have enjoyed winning more points than they have lost during the regular season. But only eight times out of 26 attempts has a player walked away with winning more than 50 per cent of their points at The O2.

The subtleties of hard-court versus clay-court strategies are tough to pick up on with the naked eye. But not with a spreadsheet.

The way the ball interacts with the court is different for clay and hard, as well as how a player’s feet slide or stick to the surface. But what about serve patterns? Do players serve wide more on one side of the court than the other?

An Infosys Insights deep dive into the current Top 10 hitting first serves out wide in both the Deuce court and Ad court on clay and hard uncovers a clear strategic bias born from how the ball rebounds from each surface.


The data set comes from 2011-2018 ATP World Tour Masters 1000 events and the Nitto ATP Finals. The statistical comparison is a percentage of serving either wide, body or T.

DEUCE COURT WIDE - HARD COURT WINS
The Top 10, on average, served wide more in the Deuce court when playing on hard over clay. Marin Cilic was the leader on hard, serving 51.8 per cent of his Deuce court first serves out wide.

What’s interesting is that Cilic was also the leader serving wide on clay. In second place on both hard and clay was Novak Djokovic.

As you may expect, the only lefty in the data set, World No. 1 Rafael Nadal, was last in the Top 10 in choosing to serve wide on clay and hard on the Deuce court as it goes against his natural slice serve down the middle T.

Current Top 10: First-Serve Percentage Deuce Court Wide on Clay & Hard (Bold = Leader)

Ranking

Player

Hard Court

Clay Court

Majority

Hard v Clay Gap

1

R. Nadal

28.2%

26.6%

Hard

1.6%

2

R. Federer

49.1%

45.7%

Hard

3.4%

3

N. Djokovic

49.9%

48.5%

Hard

1.4%

4

J. M. del Potro

38.8%

33.3%

Hard

5.5%

5

A. Zverev

45.8%

46.8%

Clay

-1.0%

6

M. Cilic

51.8%

56.1%

Clay

-4.3%

7

D. Thiem

46.8%

46.4%

Hard

0.4%

8

G. Dimitrov

49.4%

44.8%

Hard

4.6%

9

K. Anderson

47.9%

48.4%

Clay

-0.5%

10

J. Isner

49.1%

48.5%

Hard

0.6%



Average

45.7%

44.5%

Hard 7 / Clay 3

1.2% points

Overall, seven of the Top 10 served wide on the Deuce court more on hard than clay. The Top 10 average was 45.7 per cent for hard and 44.5 per cent on clay – a difference of 1.2 percentage points.

AD COURT WIDE - CLAY COURT WINS
Roger Federer led the Top 10 in serving wide more on clay than down the T, directing 56.7 per cent of his first serves off the court to begin the point. Federer was followed by Dominic Thiem (55.4%) and Nadal (52.2%). Thiem was the hard court leader serving wide, doing it 53.6 per cent of the time.

Juan Martin del Potro had the biggest overall adjustment in serve location from hard to clay, with more sliders out wide in the Deuce court on hard, and more heavy first serves (power + kick) out wide in the Ad court on clay.

Del Potro Serve: Wide Serves
Deuce Court = 38.8% hard / 33.3% clay (5.5 percentage point difference)
Ad Court = 39.2% hard / 47.4% clay (8.2 percentage point difference)

Current Top 10: First-Serve Percentage Ad Court Wide on Clay & Hard. (Bold = Leader)

#

Player

Hard Court

Clay Court

Majority

Hard v Clay Gap

1

R. Nadal

45.0%

52.2%

Clay

-7.2%

2

R. Federer

49.8%

56.7%

Clay

-6.9%

3

N. Djokovic

46.9%

50.3%

Clay

-3.4%

4

J. M. del Potro

39.2%

47.4%

Clay

-8.2%

5

A. Zverev

35.5%

40.6%

Clay

-5.1%

6

M. Cilic

42.1%

39.9%

Hard

2.2%

7

D. Thiem

53.6%

55.4%

Clay

-1.8%

8

G. Dimitrov

44.7%

47.7%

Clay

-3.0%

9

K. Anderson

41.0%

38.7%

Hard

2.3%

10

J. Isner

46.6%

47.7%

Clay

-1.1%

-%

Average

44.4%

47.7%

8 Clay / 2 Hard

3.3% points

The average difference for the Top 10 was only 1.2 percentage points in the Deuce court between hard and clay, but that jumped up to a 3.3 percentage-point difference in the Ad court. Eight of the Top 10 served more out wide in the Ad court on clay than on hard.

The Deuce court wide serves by the right-handed players (nine of 10 in the data set) would be hit with both power and slice to drag the opponent off the court. The Ad court wide serves are different, as they are struck with more of a mix of power and kick, using the small granules of clay like sandpaper to gain maximum friction, and therefore jump, on the ball.

These small adjustments may escape our focus when we sit on the side of the court and watch a match, but make perfect strategic sense once we assign a percentage to them.

Imagine playing a match with only first serves. Who would win?

When you factor in performance behind first serves and also with first-serve returns, there is just one player in the past 52 weeks who is ranked in the Top 10 on the ATP World Tour in both categories. He is Roger Federer.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of serving and receiving performance only with first serves reveals the 'Swiss Maestro' is equally adept at firing down first serves, and receiving them.


Here is a look at the players with the best combined rating of first-serve points won and first-serve return points won. The data set comes from players ranked in the Top 50 in the specific categories of first-serve points won and first-serve return points won during the past 52 weeks.

Past 52 Weeks: Top 10 Performers with First-Serve Points Won & First-Serve Return Points Won

#

Player

First-Serve
Win %

First-Serve Return
Win %

Combined Total

1

Roger Federer

81.0%

32.5%

113.5

2

Novak Djokovic

73.4%

35.2%

108.6

3

Marin Cilic

78.8%

29.6%

108.4

4

Dominic Thiem

76.6%

31.0%

107.6

5

Benoit Paire

76.1%

30.9%

107.0

6

Juan Martin del Potro

76.9%

29.5%

106.4

7

Alexander Zverev

73.3%

32.1%

105.4

8

Peter Gojowczyk

76.9%

28.2%

105.1

9

Grigor Dimitrov

75.3%

28.8%

104.1

T10

Aljaz Bedene

72.3%

31.1%

103.4

T10

Karen Khachanov

75.6%

27.8%

103.4

Overall, Federer was ranked third best with first-serve points won, and sixth best with first-serve return points won. He was the only player in the data set to be ranked in the Top 10 in both statistical categories.

Second best was Novak Djokovic, who actually led the first-serve return points won category, winning 35.2 per cent of his return points against first serves. Also in the top five were Marin Cilic, Dominic Thiem and Benoit Paire.

In looking at the players who round out the Top 10 in this category, it’s a mix of established ATP World Tour stars and a couple of players who might surprise you.

Del Potro

In sixth place is the surging Juan Martin del Potro, who recently made it back to the US Open final. The Argentine started 2018 at No. 11 in the ATP Rankings, but is back up to No. 4 after a strong season that has included titles in Acapulco and his first ATP World Tour Masters 1000 title at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells.

Alexander Zverev is in seventh place on the combined first serve & return leaderboard, and is placed seventh overall in the past 52 weeks in first-serve return points won.



Peter Gojowczyk, a 29-year-old German, comes in in eight place. Gojowczyk won his maiden ATP World Tour title just over a year ago at the ATP World Tour 250-level Moselle Open in Metz and reached two 250-level finals this season, in Delray Beach and Geneva. Grigor Dimitrov is in ninth place, and tied for 10th is Aljaz Bedene and Karen Khachanov.

The first serve is the biggest weapon in our sport, and these players have shown outstanding proficiency in both delivering the first serve and receiving it.

You don’t need to search far down an Infosys Return Stats LEADERBOARD to find just how impressive 2018 has been for the youth of our game returning serve on hard courts.

The ATP World Tour calendar has seven more weeks of hard court tournaments to complete the 2018 season, so one final push through Asia and back to Europe can help elevate a good season to a great one.


An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis identifies that the following four players, all aged 22 and under, occupy half of the top eight positions with Return Games Won On Hard in 2018.

Return Games Won On Hard Court Ranking
No. 5 = 22-year-old Borna Coric (27.95%)
No. 6 = 22-year-old Hyeon Chung (27.75%)
No. 7 = 19-year-old Alex de Minaur (27.33%)
No. 8 = 20-year-old Andrey Rublev (27.30%)

Just think about that for a moment…

The average age of the Top 100 of the ATP Rankings this week is 27.4 years of age, but the average age of these four players is just 20.7. Their maturity returning serve on hard court is well beyond their years.



Below is a breakdown of their current and best ATP Ranking, with both Coric and De Minaur both at their career best this week.

Current & Best Ranking
No, 18 Coric - best ranking No. 18 (this week)
No. 23 Chung - best ranking No. 19 (April 2018)
No. 38 De Minaur - best ranking No. 38 (this week)
No. 68 Rublev - best ranking No. 31 (Feb 2018)

Overall, David Goffin leads the Return Games Won category in 2018, winning 30.08 per cent of his return games. But this quartet of young guns is hot on his heels.

See Who's Pushing Goffin By Visiting The ATP Stats LEADERBOARDS

Coric’s game exploded on hard courts in March this year, reaching the semi-finals of the ATP World Tour Masters 1000 event in Indian Wells, followed by the quarter-finals at the Miami Open presented by Itau.

The strong showings vaulted his ATP Ranking from No. 49 to No. 28. Coric has averaged winning 39 per cent of his return points this season, but that jumped up to 43 per cent (177/414) at Indian Wells.

When you look at the other side of the ledger – Service Games Won in 2018 – it's a fresh set of young players who lead this specific category. The following list shows the best four players aged 22 or younger, and their ranking in the specific category of Service Games Won On Hard Court in 2018.

Service Games Won On Hard Court Ranking
No. 7 = 22-year-old Karen Khachanov (87.87%)
No. 14 = 21-year-old Alexander Zverev (84.53%)
No. 22 = 19-year-old Denis Shapovalov (83.19%)
No. 23 = 20-year-old Stefanos Tsitsipas (83.02%)

Roger Federer leads the Service Games Won category in 2018 on hard, winning 92.86 per cent of his service games. More than a third (34) of the Top 100 is thirty years of age or older. These young players are more than holding their own against their more experienced opponents.

There is a fascinating juxtaposition in our sport regarding Return Games Won.

If you analyse the best player in this specific metric at the end of each season since 1991, you would see there is real improvement being made in recent years on the return side of the net.

But if you expand the data set to include the leading 40 players each season with Return Games Won, you would come to a very different conclusion. An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Return Games Won since 1991 (when statistics were first kept in tennis) to this season uncovers two very conflicting results.

Leading Player - Return Games Won 1991-2018

The line in the sand is very clearly at the turn of the century. The leading six seasons for the player that led the tour with Return Games Won have all been since 2000, with three of them since 2010.

Return Games Won: Season Leader Since 1991

#

Year

Tour Leader / Return Games Won

Win Percentage

1

2016

R. Nadal

40.75%

2

2011

N. Djokovic

38.84%

3

2003

G. Coria

38.73%

4

2012

R. Nadal

37.70%

5

2005

R. Nadal

37.54%

6

2004

F. Volandri

37.46%

You May Also Like: If Tennis Eliminated The Second Serve, Federer Would Dominate Even More
Novak Djokovic’s breakout season in 2011 – when he won three majors and five ATP World Tour Masters 1000s – was underpinned by his tour-leading 38.84 Return Games Won percentage.

You would naturally think because these players are putting up ever-increasing totals that the same must be for the rest of the tour. It’s simply not so when you look at the bigger data set.

Leading 40 Players - Return Games Won 1991-2018

This is much more an examination of the depth of our game regarding proficiency breaking serve. This analysis is an average of the leading 40 players with Return Games Won each season since 1991, and it uncovers a vastly different result than the examination of the season’s tour leader.

Return Games Won: Average Of Leading 40 Players Since 1991

#

Year

Win Percentage

Leading Player & Win Percentage

1

1991

29.69%

M. Gustafsson (36.48%)

2

1994

29.14%

A. Berasategui (36.83%)

3

1993

28.94%

A. Agassi (37.34%)

4

1995

28.75%

T. Muster (35.92%)

5

1992

28.74%

M. Chang (36.70%)

6

1996

28.55%

M. Chang (35.28%)

All six of the leading categories now occur before the turn of the century, with 1991 - the first year that records were kept - producing the highest Return Games Won percentage by the leading 40 players.

When you compare apples to apples - with the Top 40 Return Games Won average from the past six years (2013-18) and the first six years (1991-96) - you uncover just how big the disparity has become.

Top 40 Average - Six Year Period
1991 - 1996 = 28.97%
2013 - 2018 = 23.96%

A substantial 5.01 percentage point gap exists between the two periods.

One conclusion that we may draw is that while some players are definitely breaking serve more often, not everyone is progressing at the same rate. And when you look at the players bucking the overall downward trend in recent years, it reveals one important reason why they are finding separation from their opponents.

Beyond The Numbers

Infosys

2018
Spaniard & American are only players to feature in both Top 10 lists for service points won on hard and clay

A hidden dynamic of clay court versus hard court tennis is perfectly illustrated with points won behind second serves. You would naturally think that serving on a hard court would be preferred for both first and second serves, but it’s simply not the case.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of points won behind first and second serves on both hard and clay courts last season surprisingly reveals a higher win percentage behind second serves on clay.

The data set includes the leading 20 players in the First and Second Serve Points Won categories on both clay and hard in the 2017 season.

2017 First Serves: Leading 20 Players Average Points Won

Surface Percentage
Hard court 78.0%
Clay court 75.1%
It’s clear to see that first-serve performance was superior on hard over clay, but that flips when we examine second serves.

2017 Second Serves: Leading 20 Players Average Points Won

Surface Percentage
Hard court 53.9%
Clay court 55.3%
An analysis of World No. 1, Rafael Nadal confirms the advantage clay has over hard when the point starts with a second serve. In 2017, Nadal led the ATP World Tour in winning second serve points on both hard and clay courts, with his performance on clay being superior to hard.

2017: Nadal Second Serve Points Won

Surface Percentage
No. 1 on hard court 60.3% (706/1171 in 49 matches)
No. 1 on clay court 64.1% (307/479 in 25 matches)
This dynamic was also true for one of the biggest servers on the ATP World Tour; John Isner. The 6’10” American won 56.1 per cent (510/909) of second-serve points on hard courts, but that rose to 58.3 per cent (187/321) on clay. Isner was the only other player besides Nadal that featured in the Top 10 in winning second-serve points on both clay and hard.

One reason to explain this dynamic is that raw power is sought after behind first serves, and the ball slows down less at impact on a hard court than a clay court. But power is not the main ingredient of second serves. The focus switches to what the ball does when it reacts with the court, with the granules of clay “grabbing” a ball better and producing a higher kick off clay than hard.

It turns out that a heavy kick second serve is rewarded more on clay than we ever thought.

Nobody on the ATP World Tour wants to lose the first set. But there’s a lesson in the numbers — whatever you do, don’t fall behind Novak Djokovic.

A slow start has proven especially harmful against Djokovic, as no player has been more dominant with a one-set lead than the Serbian. According to the FedEx ATP Performance Zone, Djokovic holds a 724-31 record after winning the opener, a win-rate of 95.9 per cent. Only 14 players in history have won at least 90 per cent of their matches after winning the first set.

That could be something to keep an eye on this week at the Rolex Paris Masters, where the 72-time tour-level champion Djokovic continues his pursuit to regain the No. 1 ATP Ranking. And the recent Cincinnati, US Open and Shanghai champion is in excellent form, arriving in Paris having won the past 24 matches in which he has won the first set.

Top 5 Players In History After Winning The First Set

Player Record Win-Rate
1. Novak Djokovic 724-31 95.9%
2. Rafael Nadal 808-42 94.8%
3. Bjorn Borg 563-35 94.1%
4. Andy Murray 557-39 93.5%
5. Roger Federer 1,047-75 93.3%
In fact, the four-time Paris titlist has won the first set in 25 of his 35 clashes at the ATP World Tour Masters 1000 event. And of those 25 matches, he has triumphed 24 times. It doesn’t hurt that Djokovic arrives in France on an 18-match winning streak overall, either.

What’s perhaps most impressive is that, excluding wins over two qualifiers ranked outside of the Top 90, Djokovic owns a 22-1 record at the final Masters 1000 tournament of the year against opponents with an average ATP Ranking of No. 17. But that’s not all — Djokovic has always dominated with the lead against the best players in the sport.



The 31-year-old has won 89.8 per cent of his matches against Top 10 opponents after taking the opening set. That means that Djokovic’s win-rate in such a situation against the Top 10 is better than that of all but 15 players in history against the field.

Only one player has done better against the elite group, and that’s World No. 1 Rafael Nadal. The Spaniard has won 90.0 per cent (135-15) of his matches against the Top 10, and he is directly behind Djokovic in matches won after claiming the first set against the field. Nadal has captured 808 of 852, or 94.8 per cent.

Rounding out the Top 5 in the category are Bjorn Borg (94.1%, 563-35), Andy Murray (93.5%, 557-39) and Roger Federer (93.3%, 1,047-75). Of the Top 10 players in matches won after triumphing in the first set, only one — Juan Martin del Potro — has not reached No. 1 in the ATP Rankings.

The 'Big Four' Against Top 10 Opponents After Winning The First Set

Player Record Win-Rate
1. Rafael Nadal 135-15 90.0%
2. Novak Djokovic 159-18 89.8%
3. Roger Federer 187-34 84.6%
4. Andy Murray 78-18 81.3%
Djokovic has been doing that well this year, clinching 40 of the 42 matches in which he has come out on top in the opener. And he’ll try to continue getting ahead in Paris, where he seeks a record-tying 33rd Masters 1000 title.

Did You Know?
Djokovic can return to the top spot in the ATP Rankings by triumphing in Paris, regardless of Nadal's result at the indoor hard-court event.

The gap between winning and losing lives in the short rallies.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of matches at the Nitto ATP Finals this week uncovers the real difference between winning and losing is not about being more consistent in the traditional sense.

The analysis is from the following four matches:
Novak Djokovic def. John Isner 6-4, 6-3
Kei Nishikori def. Roger Federer 7-6(4), 6-3
Alexander Zverev def. Marin Cilic 7-6(5), 7-6(1)
Kevin Anderson def. Dominic Thiem 6-3, 7-6(10)

It’s important to note that there were four tie-breaks played in eight sets, showing just how even the competition was. There were 495 total points played in the four matches, with the match winners combining to win 54 per cent of total points.

Total Points Won
• 4 Match Winners = 267 points won.
• 4 Match Losers = 228 points won.
• GAP = 39 points.

The focus of the analysis is that where those 39 points “live” is truly the difference between winning and losing. The answer is crystal clear — they live in the short rallies.

Infosys is employing “second screen” technology at the Nitto ATP Finals, digging deeper into match data than ever before. All rallies are categorised into the following three rally lengths, with short points in the 0-4 rally length being the most dominant:

Rally Length/Overall Percentage Of Points
• 0-4 Shots - 68%
• 5-8 Shots - 22%
• 9+ Shots - 10%

Of the 39 points that exist in the gap between winning and losing — meaning the difference between points won in a rally length between the winner of a match and their opponent — the majority are once again in the short rallies.

39 Gap Points Between Winning & Losing
• 0-4 Shots = 26
• 5-8 Shots = 8
• 9+ Shots = 5

Twenty-six of the 39 points (67%) that proved to be the difference between winning and losing live in the 0-4 shot rally length. This is valuable information for players to grasp, as it shows more practice needs to be spent on serves and returns than making 40 balls in a row from the back of the court.

It’s interesting to note that all four match winners won more points than their opponent in the 0-4 shot rally length, while only three out of four match winners proved superior in the 5-8 shot rally length, and only two won more points than their opponent in rallies of nine balls or more.

Player 0-4 Shots 5-8 Shots 9+ Shots
Novak Djokovic 41 13 9
John Isner 35 6 3
Kei Nishikori 38 12 3
Roger Federer 28 11 7
Alexander Zverev 60 26 7
Marin Cilic 55 18 7
Kevin Anderson 42 8 8
Dominic Thiem 37 16 4
Total 336 110 49
Percentage 68% 22% 10%
Digging deeper into match data will no doubt create a paradigm shift of how we think about our sport. For example, a traditional way of thinking about consistency is making 20 balls in a row, and doing it four times. A new way, enhanced with match data, is to build a game plan around dominating the 0-4 point rallies, and doing that 20 times.

Imagine losing almost 50,000 points and 160 matches and calling it one of the best seasons of your life.

That’s exactly what the Top 10 combined to produce in the 2018 season, earning them north of $64 million in prize money in the process.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the Top 10 players in the ATP Rankings at the completion of the 2018 season sheds light on all the winning and losing that go hand-in-hand with reaching the pinnacle of our sport.

Total Points Won / Lost
The Top 10 combined to lose 48,501 points in the 2018 season. They averaged winning just 53.0 per cent (54,424/102/925) of total points, highlighting that their real advantage is not as much as we perceive. Kevin Anderson won the most points (6151) and also lost the most points (5726) of the Top 10 in the 2018 season.

Top 10: 2018 Season - Points Won & Lost / Prize Money

Ranking

Player

Points Won

Points Lost

Total

Win %

Prize Money

1

N. Djokovic

5796

4832

10628

54.5%

$12,609,672

2

R. Nadal

4281

3447

7728

55.4%

$8,663,347

3

R. Federer

5097

4280

9377

54.4%

$7,599,233

4

A. Zverev

5998

5356

11354

52.8%

$7,726,914

5

J. M. Del Potro

5167

4514

9681

53.4%

$5,917,766

6

K. Anderson

6151

5726

11877

51.8%

$4,922,699

7

M. Cilic

5427

4877

10304

52.7%

$4,727,148

8

D. Thiem

5969

5465

11434

52.2%

$4,556,745

9

K. Nishikori

5156

4850

10006

51.5%

$3,784,388

10

J. Isner

5382

5154

10536

51.1%

$3,746,875

-

TOTAL / AVERAGE

54424

48501

102925

53.0%

$64,254,787

Rafael Nadal = Best Win Percentage
Rafael Nadal finished at No. 2 in the ATP Rankings in the 2018 season, but he actually had the highest win percentage of points won at 55.4 per cent, which was his second best performance in the past four seasons.

Rafael Nadal 2015-2018 - Percentage Of Points Won
• 2018 = 55.4% (4281/7728)
• 2017 = 55.5% (6519/11743)
• 2016 = 53.7% (3733/6947)
• 2015 = 53.4% (6517/12215)

Nadal also had the best match-record winning percentage of Top 10 players in 2018, at 91.8 per cent (45-4).

Top 10: 2018 Season - Matches Won & Lost

Ranking

Player

Matches Won

Matches Lost

Total Matches

Win %

1

N. Djokovic

53

12

65

81.5%

2

R. Nadal

45

4

49

91.8%

3

R. Federer

48

10

58

82.8%

4

A. Zverev

58

19

77

75.3%

5

J. M. Del Potro

47

13

60

78.3%

6

K. Anderson

47

19

66

71.2%

7

M. Cilic

42

20

62

67.7%

8

D. Thiem

54

20

74

73.0%

9

K. Nishikori

43

21

64

67.2%

10

J. Isner

34

22

56

60.7%

-

Total / Average

471

160

631

75.0%

The Top 10 averaged to win right at 75 per cent (471/631) of their matches in the 2018 season, with Alexander Zverev winning the most matches with 58 victories, including capturing the biggest title of his career by winning the Nitto ATP Finals in London on Sunday.

Reaching the Top 10 is one of the most prized goals in our sport. It’s important to consider that they still lose, on average, one out of every four matches and are only able to create a separation of just six points out of every 100 (53% won / 47% lost) from their opponents.

Serving at 40/0 versus 0/40 could not be more opposite – or the same.

An Infosys ATP Insights deep dive into these two contrasting game scores over the past four seasons for the current Top 10 identifies a massive gap in the expected chance of holding serve, as you would expect. What is also uncovered is a surprising symmetry in where first serves go when a player desperately needs a point (0/40), or has the freedom to surprise the returner with a secondary serve pattern (40/0).

Holding from 40/0 & 0/40
From 2015-2018, the Top 10 have averaged holding serve a dominant 99.4 per cent (9845/9904) of the time when leading 40/0 on serve. Juan Martin del Potro was the most successful holding from 40/0, amazingly dropping serve only one time (594/595), with John Isner and Marin Cilic dropping serve twice, and Roger Federer three times.

When the tables were turned and the Top 10 found themselves down 0/40 attempting to hold, the percentage plummeted all the way down to 20.6 (213/1032). Isner led the Top 10 holding from 0/40 at 27 per cent (20/74).

Current Top 10: Percentage Of Holding From 0/40 and 40/0 – 2015-2018

Ranking

Player

Holding from 40/0

Holding from 0/40

1

N. Djokovic

99.2%

21.4%

2

R. Nadal

99.5%

22.8%

3

R. Federer

99.7%

25.8%

4

A. Zverev

98.8%

15.9%

5

M. Cilic

98.8%

13.4%

6

J. M. Del Potro

99.8%

10.3%

7

K. Anderson

99.5%

26.8%

8

D. Thiem

99.0%

22.7%

9

K. Nishikori

98.8%

21.1%

10

J. Isner

99.8%

27.0%

-

AVERAGE

99.4%

20.6%

Serve Direction 40/0 & 0/40
You would suspect that serve direction would vary greatly at these two contrasting game scores, as players either elect to go with their favourite location to increase the percentages of winning the point, or surprise to a new location to keep the opponent guessing.

As it turns out, the Top 10 average exactly the same amount of first serves out wide (50 per cent), at the body (eight per cent) and down the centre T (42 per cent) at 40/0 and 0/40.

Current Top 10: Serve Direction at 0/40 and 40/0 - 2015-2018

Ranking

Player

0-40 Wide

0-40 Body

0-40 T

Total

40-0 Wide

40-0 Body

40-0 T

Total

1

N. Djokovic

24

2

24

50

257

25

220

502

2

R. Nadal

39

13

13

65

196

39

156

391

3

R. Federer

14

1

20

35

273

21

173

467

4

A. Zverev

5

3

9

17

55

9

45

109

5

M. Cilic

13

1

11

25

77

22

86

185

6

J. M. Del Potro

18

1

13

32

98

23

51

172

7

K. Anderson

5

1

15

21

113

20

80

213

8

D. Thiem

8

0

13

21

60

7

54

121

9

K. Nishikori

25

5

13

43

81

33

44

158

10

J. Isner

14

0

10

24

131

16

218

365

-

TOTAL

165

27

141

333

1341

215

1127

2683

-

PERCENTAGE

50%

8%

42%

100%

50%

8%

42%

100%

There was no set pattern of play on an individual basis, with some players switching locations, and others sticking to what they know best.

For example, Kevin Anderson served 71 per cent (15/21) of his first serves down the T at 0/40, but switched his primary target to out wide when leading 40/0, where he served 57 per cent of first serves. Some players, such as Rafael Nadal, kept the same location where they hit most serves, which was out wide for the Spaniard at both game scores.

It turns out there that 40/0 and 0/40 have a lot more in common than we ever knew.

Spaniard was again almost unbeatable on clay, while Serb excelled on both grass and hard courts
To thrive on the ATP World Tour, it's a given that players must find a way to succeed on various surfaces under different conditions throughout the year's 64 tournaments. The 2018 season was no different, according to the FedEx ATP Performance Zone. Here's a look at some of the best performers by surface this year:

Clay Courts (minimum 10 matches)
It's no surprise that Rafael Nadal was the best player on clay in 2018, winning three more titles on the surface (4) than he had losses (1). The Spaniard claimed his 11th titles at the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell, the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters and Roland Garros, also triumphing at the Internazionali BNL D'Italia. Nadal now owns 57 clay-court tour-level trophies, which would rank 12th all-time among title winners on all surfaces.

While Alexander Zverev shone brightest in London, where he claimed the Nitto ATP Finals crown, the German was successful on clay as well, winning 84 per cent (21-4) of his matches on the surface.

Player W-L Record Winning %
Rafael Nadal 26-1 96.3%
Alexander Zverev 21-4 84.0%
Martin Klizan 16-4 80.0%
Dominic Thiem 30-8 78.9%
David Goffin 12-5 70.6%
Hard Courts (minimum 10 matches)
Nadal also had the ATP World Tour's best winning percentage on hard courts, but he played just three tournaments on the surface, finishing with a 14-2 record. Other Top 10 players produced standout performances on hard courts, including Juan Martin del Potro, who won back-to-back titles in Acapulco and Indian Wells (his first ATP Masters 1000 title). He also reached four hard-court finals, including the US Open. The Argentine claimed 36 wins on the surface, as did Roger Federer, who won his sixth Australian Open, the ATP 500 title in Rotterdam (where he returned to World No. 1) and his ninth title in Basel.

But among players with 30 or more hard-court match wins this season, Novak Djokovic had the best winning percentage of 83.8 per cent (31-6), despite starting the year 3-3 on the surface. The Serb won 26 of his final 28 matches, all on hard courts. During that span, he completed the Career Golden Masters at the Western & Southern Open, was victorious at the US Open and captured the Rolex Shanghai Masters crown.

Player W-L Record Winning %
Rafael Nadal 14-2 87.5%
Novak Djokovic 31-6 83.8%
Roger Federer 36-8 81.8%
Juan Martin del Potro 36-9 80.0%
Kevin Anderson 35-13 72.9%
Alexander Zverev 35-13 72.9%
Grass Courts (minimum 5 matches)
Djokovic's resurgence after a 6-6 start to the year got underway during the grass season. He held championship point at the Fever-Tree Championships before ultimately falling against Marin Cilic, who had the third best record on the surface this year. But Djokovic used that event as a launching pad to capture his fourth Wimbledon crown.

Roger Federer won a record 18th grass-court title in 2018, triumphing at the MercedesCup in Stuttgart, while also reaching the final at the Gerry Weber Open in Halle.

Player W-L Record Winning %
Novak Djokovic 11-1 91.7%
Roger Federer 12-2 85.7%
Marin Cilic 6-1 85.7%
Borna Coric 5-1 83.3%
John Isner 5-1 83.3%
Rafael Nadal 5-1 83.3%
Indoor Courts (minimum 10 matches)
While indoors is not a surface, Karen Khachanov rode great success indoors to his breakthrough in 2018. The Russian won his maiden ATP World Tour title two years ago in Chengdu. But Khachanov added three more trophies to his total this year, with all of those victories coming on indoor hard courts. Khachanov won the Open 13 Provence, the VTB Kremlin Cup and he earned his maiden ATP World Tour Masters 1000 title at the Rolex Paris Masters, finishing the season 20-4 indoors.

Player W-L Record Winning %
Karen Khachanov 20-4 83.3%
Roger Federer 14-3 82.4%
Novak Djokovic 8-2 80.0%
David Goffin 8-2 80.0%%
Kevin Anderson 13-4 76.5%
Overall
It's fitting that the Top 3 players in the year-end ATP Rankings — Nadal (No. 2), Federer (No. 3) and Djokovic (No.1) — are also in the Top 3 in overall winning percentage in 2018. Djokovic lost just six matches after his 6-6 start, finishing with wins in 47 of his last 53 matches. Zverev, who led the ATP World Tour with 58 match wins, earned a 75.3 winning percentage.

Player W-L Record Winning %
Rafael Nadal 45-4 91.8%
Roger Federer 48-10 82.8%
Novak Djokovic 53-12 81.5%
Juan Martin del Potro 47-13 78.3%
Alexander Zverev 58-19 75.3%

Should more second serves be directed to the forehand return?

Second serves are slower than first serves, and forehand returns are more potent than backhand returns, hence the typical match-up of second serves directed to the backhand body-jam location.

While the theory makes perfect sense, the supporting analytics of blindly hitting second serves to the backhand return simply don't add up.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of players inside the 2018 year-end Top 10 reveals that they overwhelmingly serve more to the backhand with their second serves, but the win percentages are actually superior serving to the forehand.

The data set comes from 2018 ATP Masters 1000 events and the Nitto ATP Finals. It includes 2,368 second serves to the Deuce court and 2,217 second serves to the Ad court, with the general presumption of a right-handed returner. Each service box is broken down into three evenly spaced areas: down the T, at the body, and out wide.

Deuce Court - Top 10 2018 Average
Most second serves went down the T, to a right-handed player’s backhand return, but the highest win percentage was out wide to their forehand return.

Deuce Court – Second Serves Attempted & Won (Bold = Highest)

DEUCE COURT Direction Attempted Win Percentage
T 53.5% 60.9%
Body 23.1% 59.6%
Wide 23.4% 63.5%
World No. 1 Novak Djokovic hit the most amount of second serves out wide to the forehand (45.1%), and enjoyed his highest win percentage there as well.

Novak Djokovic - Deuce Court Second Serves
T = Made 36.6% / Won 51.9%
Body = Made 18.3% / Won 59.6%
Wide = Made 45.1% / Won 68%

Deuce Court Win Percentage – WIDE
1. Juan Martin del Potro 75% (24/32)
2. Novak Djokovic 68% (87/128)
3. Kevin Anderson 67.6% (48/71)

Ad Court - Top 10 2018 Average
Directing a second serve down the T in the Ad court – to a right-hander’s forehand return – delivered almost the exact same win percentage as going out wide to the backhand. You would expect hitting a kick serve up high and out wide to a backhand return to be vastly superior to hitting a second serve to the forehand, which also pulls the returner into the middle of the court to begin the point. But the win percentages are basically the same.

Ad Court – Second Serves Attempted & Won (Bold = Highest)

AD COURT Direction Attempted Win Percentage
T 26.2% 60.8%
Body 33.8% 55.1%
Wide 40% 60.9%
The top three performers with second-serve points won down the T to the forehand in the Ad court:

Ad Court Win Percentage – T
1. Novak Djokovic 73.5% (86/117)
2. Rafael Nadal 63.2% (24/38)
3. John Isner 61.9% (13/21)

Yes, more second serves should definitely be directed to the opponent’s forehand return. A main reason is the surprise factor, as almost all returners are initially sitting on a backhand return against a second serve.

But it’s not all about the kicking it in to the backhand wing and starting the point; it’s actually about attacking the forehand return and catching opponents off guard.

Rafael Nadal was the king of break points in 2018.

The 32-year-old Spaniard finished the season at No. 2 in the ATP Rankings with a 45-4 record, including five titles. He also earned more than $8.6 million dollars in prize money. Nadal's outstanding performance in the crucible of break points – both when serving and receiving – was a major reason.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Nadal on break points in 2018 uncovered that he finished second best on tour this year with break points saved, and third best with break points converted.

Rafael Nadal: 2018 Season
No. 2: Break Points Saved = 70.46% (198//281)
No. 3: Break Points Converted = 45.57% (216/474)

The following analysis combines break points saved when serving along with converting break points when receiving into one number. As you will see from the table below, which includes the best 10 players in this combined metric, Nadal’s separation on break point is evident.

2018 Season: Combined Total - Break Points Saved & Converted

#

Player

Break Points Saved

Break Points Converted

Combined Total

1

Rafael Nadal

70.46%

45.57%

116.03

2

Roger Federer

68.49%

41.88%

110.37

3

Pierre-Hugues Herbert

66.56%

41.74%

108.30

4

Steve Johnson

70.75%

36.3%

107.05

5

Pablo Carreno Busta

62.57%

44.21%

106.78

6

Kei Nishikori

62.85%

42.63%

105.48

7

Borna Coric

62.18%

43.23%

105.41

8

Roberto Bautista Agut

63.64%

41.76%

105.40

9

Adrian Mannarino

59.25%

45.64%

104.89

10

Gael Monfils

58.42%

46.42%

104.84

Roger Federer finished second best with the combined total (110.37), which helped power the Swiss to an end-of-season ATP ranking of No. 3. He also spent six weeks at No. 1 earlier in the year.

Gael Monfils finished 10th best in the combined totals list, and actually finished first in Break Points Converted for all players on tour in 2018, winning 46.42 per cent (149/321). Steve Johnson was the tour leader in Break Points Saved, at 70.75 per cent (208/294).

Nadal and Federer both had an outstanding win rate on break points in 2018.

2018: Nadal & Federer - Percentage of Break Points Played

Players

Total Points Played

Break Points Played

% of Break Points

R. Nadal

7728

755

9.76%

R. Federer

9377

637

6.79%

The illustrious careers of both Nadal and Federer have been built around winning the big points, and 2018 was no exception.

When was the toughest time to break Kei Nishikori in the 2018 season? Right after he just broke serve.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the year-end Top 10 identified that Nishikori led this elite group by improving his hold percentage the most right after breaking serve compared to his 2018 season average.


Nishikori held 81.4 per cent (638/784) of the time in 2018, which was actually the lowest hold percentage out of the Top 10. But his hold percentage jumped a substantial 5.9 percentage points, to 87.3 per cent (151/173), in the ensuing service game right after breaking. Nobody improved as much as Nishikori did.

Eight of the players inside year-end Top 10 also improved holding in this specific situation, with only Roger Federer and Kevin Anderson unable to hold more after breaking serve than their season average.

Top 10: 2018 Season Average Holding Serve vs Right After Breaking Serve

ATP Ranking

Players

Holding After Breaking Serve

Season Average Holding Serve

+/- Difference

9

Kei Nishikori

87.3%

81.4%

5.9

4

Alexander Zverev

86.5%

82.9%

3.6

1

Novak Djokovic

90.5%

87.2%

3.3

2

Rafael Nadal

89.6%

86.4%

3.2

8

Dominic Thiem

88.1%

85.2%

2.9

10

John Isner

96.0%

93.6%

2.4

7

Marin Cilic

89.1%

87.0%

2.1

5

Juan Martin del Potro

87.9%

87.6%

0.3

3

Roger Federer

88.6%

91.1%

-2.5

6

Kevin Anderson

82.4%

89.1%

-6.7

The player with the second highest improvement holding serve after breaking compared to his season average was Alexander Zverev, who had a 3.6 percentage-point jump. Zverev won the biggest title of his career at the Nitto ATP Finals in London last month, impressively holding serve seven out of eight times (88%) at The O2 right after breaking serve.

World No. 1 Novak Djokovic was in third place with a 3.3 percentage-point jump. Djokovic’s last title of 2018, a victory at the Rolex Shanghai Masters, saw the Serbian hold 100 per cent (13/13) of the time after breaking serve for the tournament.

Holding after breaking is all about cementing an advantage and building momentum as the match unfolds.

You are a righty about to hit a first serve against a lefty in the Deuce court. The serve should go out wide, right? Surely sliding the first serve out to the left-hander’s backhand return will deliver the highest win percentage…

No. It. Doesn’t.

An Infosys ATP Insights deep dive into the current serving patterns of the Top 10 players in the ATP Rankings against left-handed opponents in the Deuce court from 2011-2018 at ATP Tour Masters 1000 events and the Nitto ATP Finals identifies more first serves do go wide to the lefty’s backhand return, but a higher percentage are won serving right down the middle to the forehand.

Current Top 10: Location Of First Serves To The Deuce Court
• Wide to left-hander’s backhand = 74.2% won
• T to the left-hander’s forehand = 75.6% won
• Advantage = 1.4 percentage points.

What’s fascinating is that eight of the world’s Top 10 serve wide to the backhand more often with their first serve in the Deuce court, but six of those 10 players win more with their first down the T to the forehand.

2018 Top 10: Serve Direction In Deuce Ct vs. Lefties (2011-2018 Masters 1000s & Nitto ATP Finals)

ATP Ranking

Player

T (to the forehand)

Body

Wide (to the backhand)

Serve Down T vs. Out Wide

2

Rafael Nadal

161

64

124

+37

6

Kevin Anderson

63

3

60

+3

10

John Isner

145

22

147

-2

1

Novak Djokovic

312

38

324

-12

4

Alexander Zverev

67

19

89

-22

5

Juan Martin del Potro

100

15

123

-23

7

Dominic Thiem

132

6

175

-43

9

Kei Nishikori

120

49

165

-45

8

Marin Cilic

101

3

166

-65

3

Roger Federer

154

15

233

-79



TOTAL

1355

234

1606

-251



PERCENTAGE

42.4%

7.3%

50.3%

-

Rafael Nadal, the only left-hander in the Top 10, directed by far the most serves down the T in the Deuce court to his left-handed opponents’ forehand than out wide to the backhand. Does the 17-time Grand Slam champion know something about playing lefties that the rest of the Top 10 do not, or is it simply a result of his natural lefty slice serve motion across his body which ends up down the T? Nadal hit 37 more first serves down the T than out wide, with Kevin Anderson the only other Top 10 player registering more first serves down the T - hitting 63 down the T and 60 out wide.

Roger Federer went with the traditional pattern of a wide slider to the backhand return the most, hitting 79 more first serves out wide than down the T (233 wide/154 T).

Win Percentage: T vs. Wide (2011-2018 Masters 1000s & Nitto ATP Finals)

ATP Ranking

Player

T (to the forehand)

Body

Wide (to the backhand)

% Point Difference T vs Wide

5

Juan Martin del Potro

83.0%

60.0%

65.0%

18.0

8

Marin Cilic

77.2%

100.0%

68.1%

9.2

7

Dominic Thiem

81.8%

66.7%

78.9%

2.9

6

Kevin Anderson

85.7%

66.7%

83.3%

2.4

3

Roger Federer

76.6%

73.3%

75.1%

1.5

2

Rafael Nadal

71.4%

67.2%

70.2%

1.2

9

Kei Nishikori

70.0%

75.5%

70.9%

-0.9

4

Alexander Zverev

71.6%

78.9%

73.0%

-1.4

10

John Isner

80.0%

72.7%

83.0%

-3.0

1

Novak Djokovic

70.8%

60.5%

75.3%

-4.5



AVERAGE WIN %

75.6%

69.7%

74.2%

-1.4

The table above identifies that six of the top 10 had a higher win percentage serving to the left-hander’s forehand down the T than out wide to the backhand. Juan Martin del Potro led the Top 10 in a T versus wide comparison, winning 18 percentage points more (83.0% to 65.0%) down the T than out wide. The other players that won more down the T than out wide were Marin Cilic (+9.2), Dominic Thiem (+2.9), Anderson (+2.4), Federer (+1.5) and Nadal (+1.2).

There are two key factors that are driving these metrics:
• Serving down the T consistently elicits faster serves, delivering a higher likelihood of an ace or an unreturned serve.
• The element of surprise. Lefties will typically be sitting on a wide first serve.

The analysis certainly suggests that first serves can more than hold their own against a comparatively stronger forehand return. The secret sauce is undoubtedly in the mix.

The 1,000 game club had only one member in 2018 – Alexander Zverev. The 21-year-old German had the best season of his emerging career last year, collecting four titles (including the Nitto ATP Finals), a 58-19 record and north of $7.7 million in prize money.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of games won both serving and returning in the 2018 season identifies that Zverev just clipped the 1,000-games won milestone, reaching 1,006.

2018 Season: Leading 10 Players Total Games Won

#

Player

Serving Games Won

Return Games Won

Total

1

Alexander Zverev

754

252

1006

2

Kevin Anderson

847

149

996

T3

Dominic Thiem

753

217

970

T3

Novak Djokovic

724

246

970

5

Stefanos Tsitsipas

783

177

960

6

Karen Khachanov

724

193

917

7

Marin Cilic

709

183

892

8

John Isner

805

80

885

T9

Roger Federer

686

178

864

T9

Juan Martin del Potro

672

192

864

Zverev won four titles in 2018 (Nitto ATP Finals, Washington, ATP Masters 1000 in Madrid and Munich), winning a total of 58 matches, which just edged his 2017 win total of 55.

Kevin Anderson finished second in total games won in 2018, just 10 behind Zverev, at 996, and won the most games on serve for the year.

2018 Season: Top 3 Service Games Won
Kevin Anderson = 847
John Isner = 805
Stefanos Tsitsipas = 783

Zverev won the most return games in 2018 with 252. He finished eighth overall in 2018 on the ATP Stats Return LEADERBOARD, powered by Infosys Nia Data, with a 154.3 rating, and was 16th best on tour last year on the ATP Stats Return LEADERBOARD, powered by Infosys Nia Data, with a 278.5 rating.

2018 Season: Top 3 Return Games Won
Alexander Zverev = 252
Novak Djokovic = 246
Fabio Fognini = 236

When you boil our sport down to its simplest level, it’s all about holding serve and breaking serve. At 6’6”, Zverev provides such a tough matchup for opponents because players at that height typically show a lot more prowess serving than returning.

Zverev actually has better metrics on the return side of the equation, making him the total package and a dominant force in our sport for years to come.

he blueprint for Roger Federer to three-peat in Melbourne this year has already been written. It’s simply a rinse and repeat of the successful strategies that delivered Grand Slam glory Down Under the past two years.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Federer’s successful 2017 and 2018 campaigns in Melbourne can be broken down into five takeaways that make it easier to understand where the Swiss maestro crafts his statistical advantage.

1. First Serves - Make Six & Win Eight
Federer has averaged making 62 per cent of his first serves throughout his career, and made 61 per cent winning the Australian Open in 2018, and 63 per cent in 2017. If he makes more than that, then power will likely be sacrificed and first-serve points won will surely drop. If he makes less, then he allows too much exposure to his second serve.

Federer has averaged winning 77 per cent of his first serves in his career, and won 82 per cent in Melbourne in 2018, and 78 per cent in 2017. It must be nice for the Swiss to keep his first serve averages right in his wheelhouse so he does not feel the pressure of having to elevate to capture Grand Slams.

You May Also Like: Nadal, Federer Dominate The Break Points Better Than Anyone
2. Baseline - Hopefully Break Even
It’s hard to imagine that Federer has won 14 straight matches in Melbourne the past two years but has a losing percentage in baseline points won. Federer has amazingly lost 12 more points than he has won (718 lost, 706 won) the past two years in Melbourne even though he won every match.

Baseline Points Won
2017: = 384/792 = 48.5%
2018: = 322/632 = 50.9%
Combined: 706/1424 = 49.6%

3. Approach - Pressure Coming Forward
Federer’s win percentages move from slightly negative to extremely positive once he moves from the back of the court to the front. He has averaged winning almost three out of four points (72.5%) coming forward the past two years in Melbourne. Federer’s preferred strategy is to come in with a forehand approach against a backhand passing shot.

Net Points Won
2017: 175/242 = 72.3%
2018: 139/191 = 72.8%
Combined: 314/433 = 72.5%

4. Rally Length - First Strike Rules
Federer crafts his advantage much more in short rallies, where the serve and return reign supreme, than in longer rallies.

Federer: Rally Length/Points Played

Rally Length

2018

2017

0-4 Shots

72.8%

71.5%

5-8 Shots

19.1%

20.9%

9+ Shots

8.1%

7.6%

When you examine points won and lost at each rally length, it’s clear to see that Federer prefers to play shorter points much more, because that’s exactly where he wins the most. He has won 220 more points than he has lost in the 0-4 rally length the past two years in Melbourne, which is more than 300 per cent greater than the other two rally lengths combined.

2017 & 2018 Combined: Aggregate of Points Won & Lost
0-4 Shots = + 220 points won
5-8 Shots = + 41 points won
9+ Shots = + 26 points won

5. Forehands = Hit As Many As Possible
Everything about Federer’s forehand screams dominance Down Under. His signature groundstroke has totaled almost twice as many winners as his backhand (206 forehand/114 backhand) during the past two years while also yielding less forced and unforced errors.

Forehand v Backhand Comparison
Winners
Forehand = 206
Backhand = 114

Forced Errors
Forehand = 214
Backhand = 230

Unforced Errors
Forehand = 196
Backhand = 200

If Federer is to three-peat, he does not need to reinvent his game or try to elevate his performance to an unrealistically high level. It’s all about knowing exactly what works and making the opponent bend to Federer's intentions.