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Is Rafael Nadal elevating his game to another level at 31 years of age?

Our eyes see it, his opponents feel it, and yes, the stats sheet confirms it as well. The golden age of Rafa is happening right here, right now.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Nadal’s record-setting 11 titles at the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters identifies that the Spaniard has only once (2010) won a higher percentage of total points to take the title than he did this year.

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Nadal won 60.9 per cent (298/489) of total points in five matches last week, which is the second highest of any of his 11 victorious campaigns in the Principality. It was more than three percentage points higher than his total points won average of 58.3 per cent (3885/6668) in winning 11 titles, beginning back in 2005.

Nadal has won 54 per cent of total points on all surfaces throughout his career, and 56 per cent lifetime on clay. To be at 61 per cent last week clearly identifies how dominant his game is at the moment.

Rafael Nadal 11 Titles In Monte-Carlo: Total Points Won

Year

Total Points Won

2010

64.1%

2018

60.9%

2007

60.5%

2017

59.7%

2012

59.3%

2008

58.0%

2005

57.4%

2011

57.1%

2009

56.5%

2006

56.4%

2016

55.6%

AVERAGE

58.7%

Second-Serve Points Won
Nadal’s major area of influence in Monte-Carlo last week was his second serve. He won 67.5 per cent (52/77) of his second-serve points. That's his highest win percentage in this specific metric he's ever recorded en route to winning a Monte-Carlo title.

Returning Serve
It’s hard to fathom that Nadal could possibly make the opponent’s serve a weakness, but that’s exactly what he regularly does in Monte-Carlo. Nadal won 50.8 per cent (129/254) of his return points last week, meaning that he won more points returning in opponents' service games than the server did.

Watch Highlights: Nadal Wins 11th Monte-Carlo Crown


In the 11 times Nadal has won in Monte-Carlo, he has averaged winning 51.5 per cent of return points, with the highest in 2010, when he won 58.8 per cent (133/266). Serving against Rafa is not an advantage on clay in Monaco.

Consecutive Clay-Court Sets Won
With Nadal’s 6-1, 6-3 victory on Thursday in Barcelona against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Nadal extended his Open Era record to 40 consecutive sets won on clay. Monte-Carlo last week accounted for 10 of those, with only one set out of the 10 reaching 6-4.

Everything is on fire at the moment for the Spaniard as a new clay-court season kicks off. Opponents are having trouble winning games, let alone sets or matches. The all-time great is asserting his dominance like never before.

The score is 15/30. You just missed your first serve and you now need to weigh up where to direct the second. Safety to the backhand return, right? Not so fast …

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current ATP Top 20 identifies that a vast majority of second serves do go to the backhand return at this specific point score, but a higher percentage of points are won surprising with a second serve down the T to the forehand return.

The best way to understand this strategy dynamic is to know the difference between primary and secondary patterns. Primary patterns are the prime movers that players run most often, such as hitting forehands from the back of the court, playing cross court, and directing second serves to the returner’s backhand wing.

Secondary patterns are lethal when they are combined with the element of surprise. Secondary patterns include serve and volley, attacking down the line, drop shots, and hitting a second serve to the opponent’s more potent forehand return.

Primary patterns are run seven or eight times out of ten and are also meant to condition the opponent’s mind that a specific pattern of play will be run again in the near future. Secondary patterns are best employed AFTER primary patterns have been run.

Bait and switch.

The data set of 1489 second serves at 15/30 comes from ATP World Tour Masters 1000 events and Nitto ATP Finals from 2011-2018. The following breakdown shows just how few second serves go down the T to the forehand (24%), but how this specific location also delivers the highest win percentage (62%).

Current Top 20: Second-Serve Direction at 15/30

Second-Serve Direction

Direction

Win Percentage

Wide

41%

55%

Body

35%

54%

T

24%

62%

TOTAL / AVERAGE

100%

55%

Kevin Anderson was the peak performer in the Top 20 with second serve points won serving down the T at 15/30. The top three performers at each location are highlighted below.

2nd Serve at 15/30 = Down The T
1. Kevin Anderson = 87% (13/15)
2. Jack Sock = 83% (5/6)
3. Sam Querrey = 82% (9/11)

2nd Serve at 15/30 = At The Body
1. Diego Schwartzman = 71% (5/7)
2. Jack Sock = 70% (21/30)
3. Roberto Bautista Agut = 67% (8/12)

2nd Serve at 15/30 = Out Wide
1. Jack Sock = 67% (10/15)
2. Sam Querrey = 65% (11/17)
3. John Isner = 64% (33/52)

Jack Sock impressively featured in the top three in all three categories. Overall, 15 of the 20 players in the data set had a higher win percentage serving down the T with a surprise second serve to the forehand over the expected second serve out wide to the backhand. It’s important to note that a small percentage of returners were left-handed, which flips the side of the return stroke.

Not all players followed the same pathway with second serve locations at 15/30.

Juan Martin del Potro - the only player that served more down the T (24) than he did down the middle (23), or out wide (15).
Roger Federer - hit the most down the T (57), which was almost as many as he directed out wide (62).
Novak Djokovic - mixed a lot, with 59 out wide, 58 at the body, and 55 down the T.
Milos Raonic - hit many more serves out wide (34) than down the T (8).

The mental side of the game is clearly in play here. Hitting a second serve at 15/30 suggests vulnerability for the server. Cleverly mixing to the forehand return may seem riskier on the surface, but the element of surprise makes this specific location the highest performer.

Beaten earth.

Another name for red clay is terre battue, but beaten earth sums up the toughness of this natural surface perfectly. Granules of ground red brick and tile grab the felt of a wildly-spinning ball when it pounds into terra firma. It creates different angles, different spins, and different strategies at the elite level of the game.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 right-handed players identifies that they overwhelmingly prefer to serve more out wide in the Ad court against right-handed opponents on clay than hard.

First serves are all about power and direction, but the terre battue enhances two more elements for this specific shot – spin and height.

For example, Dominic Thiem hits just over half (53.1%) of his first serves out wide on a hard court against right-handed opponents. When he steps onto a clay court, that number elevates more than 10 percentage points to 63.3 per cent as he now looks for his powerful first serve to also explode off the red dirt with more spin, and jump up higher out of the strike zone of the backhand return.

The data comes from hard-court and clay-court ATP World Tour Masters 1000 events from 2011-2018, and the Nitto ATP Finals. Thiem, 24, from Austria, has nine ATP World Tour titles to his name, with seven of them coming on clay. This specific tactic is a driving force behind his success.

Current Highest-Ranked Right-Handed Players

Ranking

Player

Hard - Ad Wide

Clay - Ad Wide

Percentage-Point Difference

7

Dominic Thiem

53.1%

63.3%

10.2

2

Roger Federer

50.1%

57.6%

7.5

11

Pablo Carreno Busta

49.7%

55.6%

5.9

4

Grigor Dimitrov

44.7%

49.2%

4.5

3

Alexander Zverev

35.5%

39.5%

4.0

9

John Isner

46.1%

49.0%

2.9

10

David Goffin

44.7%

47.6%

2.9

5

Marin Cilic

41.9%

44.4%

2.5

6

Juan Martin del Potro

42.1%

42.6%

0.5

8

Kevin Anderson

41.6%

35.7%

-5.9

-

AVERAGE

45.0%

48.5%

3.5

Roger Federer had the second-biggest jump with wide serves on clay over hard, with a 7.5 percentage-point increase, from 50.1 per cent to 57.6 per cent. The only player out of the group who did not serve more out wide on clay than hard is South African Kevin Anderson.

These clay-court serve factors come into play at all levels of the game. From Madrid to Melbourne, from the juniors to the pros, the high backhand return out wide in the Ad court is one of the toughest shots in our sport.

Thirty points.

Denis Shapovalov is one of the hottest players on tour right now and is poised to possibly break into the Top 25 in the ATP Rankings next week after starting the year ranked No. 51. He is 17-12 this season, and has won six of eight matches the past two weeks at the ATP World Tour Masters 1000 events in Madrid and Rome.

He is on a red-hot tear… and has only won 30 points more than he has lost in 2018.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of success in our sport uncovers that the margins that winning are built on are razor thin. Shapovalov, 19 years old, has played 4,204 points in 2018, winning 2,117, while losing 2,087. He will become the top-ranked Canadian when the updated rankings are released on Monday.

A good example of just how tough it is to win more points than you lose can be seen from Shapovalov’s results this week in Rome. He won two out of three matches, but leaves Rome losing more points than he won.

2018 Rome: Shapovalov Points Won / Points Lost

Round Oppenent Score Points Won Points Lost +/-
1 T. Berdych WON 1-6, 6-3, 7-6(5) 86 89 -3
2 R. Haase WON 7-6(3), 6-7(5), 6-3 119 113 6
3 R. Nadal LOST 6-4 6-1 42 67 -25
TOTAL TOTAL 257 269 -22
So where does Shapovalov look to craft his small gains? That conversation starts with his powerful lefty slice serve that he hits to the typical lefty targets -- down the T in the Deuce court and out wide in the Ad court.

In 2018, serving at Love-All at Masters 1000 events, Shapovalov has directed 84 per cent (21/24) of his first serves down the T, winning an impressive 76 per cent (16/21) of those points. His lefty serve slices away from a right-handers' backhand returns, and strategically brings the defensive return right down the middle of the court so he can then attack it with his aggressive forehand.

In the Ad court, Shapovalov has directed 62 per cent (59/96) of his first serves out wide, winning 81 per cent of those points. His lefty slider pulls opponents off the court, instantly opening up holes to attack back behind them as they recover to the middle of the court, or straight down the line.

Overall this season, Shapovalov is ranked ninth best on tour with second-serve points won at 55.2 per cent (310/562), and 13th best on tour with first-serve points won, at 75.8 per cent (788/1039).

Small gains are delivering big results for one of the brightest stars in our sport.

Roger Federer has excelled on one surface more than any other: grass. And he is closing in on making more history on the surface. After triumphing at the MercedesCup, his first tournament in three months, the Swiss is just six match wins away from matching Jimmy Connors’ all-time record of 174 victories on the mown lawns. According to the FedEx ATP Performance Zone, no other player in history has won more than 136 grass-court matches.

Most Wins On Grass In Tennis History

Player Record Win-Rate
1. Jimmy Connors 174-34 83.7%
2. Roger Federer 168-24 87.5%
3. John Newcombe 136-36 79.1%
4. Lleyton Hewitt 129-41 75.9%
5. Phil Dent 123-68 64.4%
So really, it was no surprise that Federer lifted his 18th tour-level title on the surface. The Swiss now owns a 16-match grass-court winning streak leading into the Gerry Weber Open, which he has won a record nine times.

According to the FedEx ATP Performance Zone, no active player has won a higher rate of grass-court matches than Federer at 87.5 per cent (168-24). In fact, only two other active rivals have triumphed more than 80 per cent of the time on the surface: Andy Murray (84.8 per cent) and Novak Djokovic (81.9 per cent), who have both held the No. 1 ATP Ranking for more than 40 weeks.

Highest Active Win-Rates On Grass

Player Record Win-Rate
1. Roger Federer 168-24 87.5%
2. Andy Murray 106-19 84.8%
3. Novak Djokovic 77-17 81.9%
4. Rafael Nadal 61-18 77.2%
5. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 47-20 70.1%
But perhaps what is most impressive is that Federer ranks among the best in tennis history on both hard courts and clay courts, too. The Swiss is second all-time on hard courts, behind Djokovic, at 83.3 per cent (725-145) and 14th on clay at 75.9 per cent (214-68). But he has simply been better on grass.

The 36-year-old has won 42.9 per cent (18/42) of the tour-level grass-court tournaments he has played. To put his 18 titles in perspective, only two other players in the history of tennis — Bill Tilden and Pete Sampras — have lifted 10 trophies on grass. Murray, the second active player on the list, has eight grass-court titles to his name.


In a way, it’s fitting that Federer is projected to break Connors’ record at Wimbledon. Many might argue that Federer truly announced his arrival on the tennis scene when he beat Sampras on the Wimbledon grass in 2001 at the age of 19.

“I lost to a talented player that's a great shot-maker,” Sampras said at the time. “He's got a great grass-court game. He's got all the tools.”

Sampras was right. And Federer is continuing to make his mark on the surface 17 years later.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis examines second serves in the Deuce court by the Top 10 players in the ATP Rankings
Deuce court. Second serve. Right-handed opponent.

You bounce the ball a couple of times and plan on serving to the backhand, like always. But as the match progresses you notice as you toss the ball that the returner is sometimes sneaking to their left to upgrade to a more potent forehand return.

You contemplate serving out wide to catch them sliding over, but you wonder if you are playing with fire. Is it too risky to direct a second serve wide to the forehand?

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 players in the ATP Rankings uncovers that, on average, the Top 10 directs their second serve wide in the Deuce court just 15 per cent of the time. It’s not a lot, but the surprise factor helps deliver the highest second-serve success rate of any location in the Deuce-court service box.

The message is clear. You can surprise to an opponent’s strength, but don’t overdo it. The most popular location for second serves in the Deuce court for the Top 10 is in the third of the court closest to the T, followed by in the middle, right at the body.

Current Top 10: Deuce Court Second Serves Hit (Service Box Evenly Cut Into Thirds)

Location Frequency
T 56%
Body 29%
Wide 15%The data set comes from ATP World Tour Masters 1000 events from 2011-2018 & the Nitto ATP Finals.
Grigor Dimitrov, currently ranked No. 5, enjoys the highest winning percentage (71.3%) hitting second serves out wide in the Deuce court of any Top 10 player.

Current Top 10: Deuce Court Second-Serve Winning Percentage by Location

Player

T

Body

Wide

Grigor Dimitrov

58.0%

59.8%

71.3%

Juan Martin del Potro

58.7%

52.0%

69.6%

Rafael Nadal

60.9%

60.4%

68.0%

John Isner

59.5%

60.6%

67.7%

Kevin Anderson

56.7%

54.5%

65.5%

Alexander Zverev

64.1%

59.2%

65.3%

Roger Federer

60.1%

59.9%

64.6%

Dominic Thiem

57.9%

50.8%

58.8%

Marin Cilic

55.9%

55.2%

58.4%

David Goffin

53.5%

59.0%

56.6%

AVERAGE

58.6%

58.1%

64.2%

Interestingly, nine members of the Top 10 enjoy their highest second-serve winning percentage with the mix-up out wide to the right-handers' forehand return. David Goffin was the only exception, winning more second-serve points jamming at the body in the Deuce court.

These analytics help us learn about subtle strategies in our sport, which wash right down to the recreational and junior levels. The vast majority of second serves should be directed at the body and backhand, but if the timing is right, mixing out wide to the forehand is a smart strategy.

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers dives deep into the data to show where the best servers in tennis go to most often
The five biggest servers in our sport have a favourite spot to hit their aces – and it’s not where you think.

Fifteen thousand serves to the corners by the five biggest servers in our game uncover some fascinating insights into how power and direction dominate the start of the point.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of first serves out wide and down the T in both the Deuce and Ad courts reveals where aces occur the most from the tall timber, and how likely their towering first serves are to be returned back in play.

The following five players lead the ATP World Tour in Average Aces Per Match for the past 52 weeks and are the focus of this first-serve analysis.

You May Also Like: The Surprise That Pays Dividends For The Top 10
Player Height / Average Aces Per Match Past 52 Weeks
6’11” / Ivo Karlovic 22.6
6’10” / John Isner 19.6
6’4” / Gilles Muller 16.5
6’8” / Kevin Anderson 16.4
6’5” / Milos Raonic 15.0

The overall data set of 15,020 first serves for these five players comes from 2011-2018 ATP World Tour Masters 1000 events and Nitto ATP Finals.

Here are three things we learned from the big five servers:

Deuce Court Wide = No. 1 for Aces
Isner led the way with aces out wide in the Deuce court with 473 to this specific location. Interestingly, it was 108 more than he hit down the T (365) in the Deuce court.

Karlovic and Muller also targeted out wide more than down the T, while Anderson and Raonic went slightly more to the T. We seem to remember bombs right down the centre T a lot more from taller players, but it’s wide in the Deuce court that delivers the most free points.

Ace Location
Deuce Court Wide = 28.8%
Deuce Court T = 26.5%
Ad Court T = 23.5%
Ad Court Wide = 21.2%

2. Deuce Court Wide = No. 1 for Unreturned Serves
The first thing to consider is that this location is directed towards a right-hander’s more potent forehand return, but it also taps into the natural slice motion of a right-handed server. Most returners will be looking/leaning towards a serve down the T to their backhand, so the surprise factor out wide also contributes to the return being missed.

Most Unreturned Serves (not including aces)
Deuce Court Wide = 29.0%
Deuce Court T = 25.7%
Ad Court Wide = 24.1%
Ad Court T = 21.2%

3. Ad Court Wide = Most Returned Serves
Players at all levels of the game target the wide serve in the Ad court as a way to get free points from the first serve. The theory is solid as you are pulling a right-handed opponent off the court and stretching him to hit a backhand return. But the analysis shows that more first serves are returned back into play from this position than anywhere else.

Most Returned Serves
Ad Court Wide = 48.2%
Ad Court T = 47.3%
Deuce Court T = 44.8%
Deuce Court Wide = 43.6%

Muller, the only lefty in the group, had 49 per cent of his first serves unreturned from this typical lefty location. But he actually had fewer returned (44 per cent) when he served down the T in the Ad court.

Holding serve is definitely about power and hitting spots, but it’s also about getting inside your
opponent’s head and figuring out where they think you're going and switching it up.

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers dives deep into the data to show where the best servers in tennis go to most often
The five biggest servers in our sport have a favourite spot to hit their aces – and it’s not where you think.

Fifteen thousand serves to the corners by the five biggest servers in our game uncover some fascinating insights into how power and direction dominate the start of the point.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of first serves out wide and down the T in both the Deuce and Ad courts reveals where aces occur the most from the tall timber, and how likely their towering first serves are to be returned back in play.

The following five players lead the ATP World Tour in Average Aces Per Match for the past 52 weeks and are the focus of this first-serve analysis.

You May Also Like: The Surprise That Pays Dividends For The Top 10
Player Height / Average Aces Per Match Past 52 Weeks
6’11” / Ivo Karlovic 22.6
6’10” / John Isner 19.6
6’4” / Gilles Muller 16.5
6’8” / Kevin Anderson 16.4
6’5” / Milos Raonic 15.0

The overall data set of 15,020 first serves for these five players comes from 2011-2018 ATP World Tour Masters 1000 events and Nitto ATP Finals.

Here are three things we learned from the big five servers:

Deuce Court Wide = No. 1 for Aces
Isner led the way with aces out wide in the Deuce court with 473 to this specific location. Interestingly, it was 108 more than he hit down the T (365) in the Deuce court.

Karlovic and Muller also targeted out wide more than down the T, while Anderson and Raonic went slightly more to the T. We seem to remember bombs right down the centre T a lot more from taller players, but it’s wide in the Deuce court that delivers the most free points.

Ace Location
Deuce Court Wide = 28.8%
Deuce Court T = 26.5%
Ad Court T = 23.5%
Ad Court Wide = 21.2%

2. Deuce Court Wide = No. 1 for Unreturned Serves
The first thing to consider is that this location is directed towards a right-hander’s more potent forehand return, but it also taps into the natural slice motion of a right-handed server. Most returners will be looking/leaning towards a serve down the T to their backhand, so the surprise factor out wide also contributes to the return being missed.

Most Unreturned Serves (not including aces)
Deuce Court Wide = 29.0%
Deuce Court T = 25.7%
Ad Court Wide = 24.1%
Ad Court T = 21.2%

3. Ad Court Wide = Most Returned Serves
Players at all levels of the game target the wide serve in the Ad court as a way to get free points from the first serve. The theory is solid as you are pulling a right-handed opponent off the court and stretching him to hit a backhand return. But the analysis shows that more first serves are returned back into play from this position than anywhere else.

Most Returned Serves
Ad Court Wide = 48.2%
Ad Court T = 47.3%
Deuce Court T = 44.8%
Deuce Court Wide = 43.6%

Muller, the only lefty in the group, had 49 per cent of his first serves unreturned from this typical lefty location. But he actually had fewer returned (44 per cent) when he served down the T in the Ad court.

Holding serve is definitely about power and hitting spots, but it’s also about getting inside your
opponent’s head and figuring out where they think you're going and switching it up.

You would think winning points returning serve on Wimbledon’s grass courts would be a tougher task on average than normal.

Not so for the eight men who booked their spots into the quarter-finals.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers comparison of the 2018 season leading into The Championships and the performance of the eight quarter-finalists through the first four rounds shows that overall return performance is improving at SW19 for the players that are still alive in the tournament.

Return Points Won vs. First Serve

Roger Federer and Milos Raonic have shown the biggest improvement with return points won at Wimbledon against first serves with an eight percentage point jump over their 2018 season average leading into The Championships.

Wimbledon Quarter Finalists: Return Points Won vs. First Serve

Player 2018 Season To Wimbledon 2018 Wimbledon Percentage Point +/-
Roger Federer 31% 39% 8
Milos Raonic 26% 34% 8
John Isner 25% 28% 3
Kevin Anderson 28% 30% 2
Novak Djokovic 36% 38% 2
Rafael Nadal 39% 40% 1
Juan Martin del Potro 29% 27% -2
Kei Nishikori 31% 27% -4
- 30.6% 32.9% 2.3
Six of the eight players all improved in this category, with only Juan Martin del Potro (-2 percentage points) and Kei Nishikori (-4 percentage points) faring worse against their 2018 season average.

Rafael Nadal only improved one percentage point, which seems like a nominal gain for one of the best returners in our sport. But when you compare his metrics against the field, you see that he is actually leading the tournament with return points won against first serves at 40 per cent (84/209).

The majority of play in 2018 for these eight players has been on hard courts and clay courts, where conventional wisdom says it should be easier to win more return points than on grass. Two possible explanations are that Wimbledon’s pristine grass courts are not as hard to return on as we think, and/or these eight players have currently uncovered an improved vein of good form returning this year.

Return Points Won vs. Second Serve

Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin del Potro have shown the biggest improvement with return points won against second serves at Wimbledon, with Djokovic improving a substantial nine percentage points the past week and a half against his 2018 average.

Wimbledon Quarter Finalists: Return Points Won vs. Second Serve

Player 2018 Season To Wimbledon 2018 Wimbledon Percentage Point +/-
Novak Djokovic 53% 62% 9
Juan Martin del Potro 53% 59% 6
Roger Federer 50% 55% 5
John Isner 40% 45% 5
Kevin Anderson 45% 49% 4
Kei Nishikori 53% 53% 0
Milos Raonic 50% 46% -4
Rafael Nadal 60% 52% -8
- 50.5% 52.6% 2.1
Out sport may need a timely paradigm shift of just how successful players can really be winning points when returning serve at Wimbledon.

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers shows the small differences that separate the top eight players in the ATP Race To London
Take a 50-50 battle, shift it ever so slightly to a 53.5 per cent advantage, and you are perfectly positioned to be competing in the Nitto ATP Finals at The O2 in London this November.

The eight best performers from the 2018 season will play in the prestigious season finale from 11-18 November, and the field has become more settled with around 60 per cent of the season now completed.


An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current eight players who lead the ATP Race To London after Wimbledon shows that their competitive advantage with points won so far in 2018 is a much smaller margin than you might think.

Top Eight In ATP Race To London: Percentage Points Won, Serving, Returning & Total

#

Player

Serve Points Won

Return Points Won

Total Points Won

1

Rafael Nadal

68%

45.3%

56.5%

2

Roger Federer

74.4%

38.9%

55.3%

3

Alexander Zverev

66%

40.1%

52.7%

4

Juan Martin del Potro

68.1%

38.7%

52.9%

5

Novak Djokovic

67.2%

42.8%

54.4%

6

Dominic Thiem

66.1%

39.6%

52.4%

7

Marin Cilic

70.2%

37.8%

53.2%

8

Kevin Anderson

71%

34.2%

52.1%

-

AVERAGE

68.7%

39.4%

53.5%

What’s interesting is when you compare each player in the serve and return categories to the top eight average, no player is above the average in both of them.

Average Percentage Points Won Serving = 68.7%

Players above the average:

Roger Federer = 74.4%

Kevin Anderson = 71.0%

Marin Cilic = 70.2%

Average Percentage Points Won Returning = 39.4%

Players above the average:

Rafael Nadal = 45.3%

Novak Djokovic = 42.8%

Alexander Zverev = 40.1%

Dominic Thiem = 39.6%

The combined total of percentage of points won from serving and retuning has three very familiar faces above the top eight average.

Average Total Percentage Points Won = 53.5%

Players above that average:

Rafael Nadal = 56.5%

Roger Federer = 55.3%

Novak Djokovic = 54.4%

The only player in the top eight in the ATP Race To London who does not feature above the average in any of the three categories is Juan Martin del Potro. But he is less than one percentage point away in all three.

The ATP Race To London is starting to take shape, but there is still time for other players to make a late season surge. The next four knocking on the door are John Isner, Kei Nishikori, Kyle Edmund and Borna Coric.

All they need do is win about three and a half points out of every hundred more than their opponents and London may well be within reach.

You are serving at 40/0 to a Top 25-ranked player.

On the one hand, you have built a formidable lead in your service game. On the other hand, you have one of the best players in the world still alive in the game trying to break your serve.

Should you still be worried about getting broken? Not so much.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 25 in the ATP Rankings from the beginning of the 2015 season identifies that they only come back to break serve on average less than two times (1.7%) out of every 100 from this specific point score.

It seems the 40/0 hole when returning is a lot deeper and darker than we realised. The data set includes 14,658 service games since the start of the 2015 season, with the Top 25 only coming back to break a combined 242 times.

Novak Djokovic leads the Top 25 in climbing out of a 40/0 hole to break serve since the start of the 2015 season, achieving it 19 times out of 510 return games for a 3.7 per cent average. The Top five during this period are:

1. Novak Djokovic = 3.7%

2. Damir Dzumhur = 3.1%

3. Rafael Nadal = 2.9%

4. Roberto Bautista Agut = 2.8%

5. David Goffin 2.6%

Juan Martin Del Potro found it the toughest to come back and break when returning against a 40/0 advantage, only doing it twice out of 420 attempts.

As Djokovic wins return points from his 40/0 hole, it’s only after he has won three consecutive points and evened the score back to Deuce that he climbs above a one in three chance of breaking serve.

Djokovic: Percentage Chance of Breaking Serve When Opponent Serving At:

• 40/0 = 3.7% (19/510)

• 40/15 = 9.3% (83/890)

• 40/30 = 17.5% (158/904)

• Deuce = 36.5% (295/809)

Djokovic’s upcoming hard-court campaign includes ATP World Tour Masters 1000 events in Canada and Cincinnati, followed by the US Open. In the three years between 2015-2017, he has only won a return game from 40/0 two times out of 76 attempts.

2015-2017 Tournaments

• Canada = 0/24

• Cincinnati = 0/15

• US Open = 2/37

The 40/0 point score is almost a lock, but returners still need to look for opportunity to break as the mental and emotional scars that can be inflicted from climbing out this deep hole can go a long way to paving the road to victory.

ATP Ranking Player
Games Won Returning

At 40/0

Games Played Returning

At 40/0

Break

Percentage

10 Novak Djokovic 19 510 3.73%
24 Damir Dzumhur 13 426 3.05%
1 Rafael Nadal 17 584 2.91%
17 Roberto Bautista Agut 18 638 2.82%
11 David Goffin 17 647 2.63%
2 Roger Federer 14 565 2.48%
23 Hyeon Chung 7 298 2.35%
16 Kyle Edmund 9 468 1.92%
8 Dominic Thiem 15 803 1.87%
22 Marco Cecchinato 3 190 1.58%
3 Alexander Zverev 11 719 1.53%
20 Kei Nishikori 9 615 1.46%
15 Jack Sock 9 642 1.40%
13 Pablo Carreno Busta 8 587 1.36%
19 Lucas Pouille 8 601 1.33%
18 Nick Kyrgios 8 622 1.29%
5 Kevin Anderson 10 808 1.24%
14 Fabio Fognini 7 569 1.23%
6 Grigor Dimitrov 8 692 1.16%
25 Philipp Kohlschreiber 6 559 1.07%
21 BornaCoric 6 584 1.03%
9 John Isner 10 1,014 0.99%
7 Marin Cilic 5 662 0.76%
12 Diego Schwartzman 3 435 0.69%
4 Juan Martin Del Potro 2 420 0.48%
Average 10 586 1.69%

To be the best, you have to beat the best. And it’s safe to say that Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have done plenty of that throughout their careers.

According to the FedEx ATP Performance Zone, not only is the tremendous trio far and away better than any other active player against the Top 10 of the ATP Rankings, but they are right at the top of key all-time lists. Swedish legend Bjorn Borg won 70.3 per cent of his matches against the elite group, the best rate of any player in history. But Djokovic, Federer and Nadal are right behind.

Recent Wimbledon champion Djokovic is second all-time with a 67.4 per cent win-rate (184-89), Federer is third by triumphing 65.8 per cent (214-111) of the time against the Top 10 and Nadal is fourth at 65.6 per cent (160-84).

Best Winning Percentage vs. Top 10 In History

Player Record Winning Percentage
1. Bjorn Borg 64-27 70.3%
2. Novak Djokovic 184-89 67.4%
3. Roger Federer 214-111 65.8%
4. Rafael Nadal 160-84 65.6%
5. Boris Becker 121-65 65.1%
Perhaps what is most impressive is that only four other active players are in the Top 50 on the all-time list. Andy Murray, who has won 45 tour-level titles, is ninth, having won 55.2 per cent of his matches against the top tier of competition on the ATP World Tour. Alexander Zverev is 24th (42.9%), Juan Martin del Potro is 34th (40.6%) and Kei Nishikori is 50th (37.6%).

In terms of overall victories against players inside the Top 10, Federer, Djokovic and Nadal have separated themselves from some of the best competitors in tennis history. Federer has 214 triumphs to top the all-time list, Djokovic is second with 184 wins and Nadal is third with 160 victories. Ivan Lendl (129) and Pete Sampras (124), both former World No. 1s, round out the Top 5.

Most Top 10 Wins, All-Time

Player Wins Player Wins
1. Roger Federer 214 6. Boris Becker 121
2. Novak Djokovic 184 7. Andre Agassi 109
3. Rafael Nadal 160 8. Andy Murray 101
4. Ivan Lendl 129 9. Stefan Edberg 98
5. Pete Sampras 124 10. John McEnroe 91
Current Top 10's Career Win-Rate Against The Top 10

Player Wins Player Wins
1. Novak Djokovic (No. 10) 67.4% 6. Dominic Thiem (No. 31.0%
2. Roger Federer (No. 2) 65.8% 7. Grigor Dimitrov (No. 6) 30.3%
3. Rafael Nadal (No. 1) 65.6% 8. John Isner (No. 9) 30.0%
4. Alexander Zverev (No. 3) 42.9% 9. Marin Cilic (No. 7) 28.4%
5. Juan Martin del Potro (No. 4) 40.6% 10. Kevin Anderson (No. 5) 19.2%
Did You Know?
- Djokovic has clinched 48 of his 69 tour-level titles by defeating a Top 10 opponent in the championship match, winning 64.0 per cent of his finals (48-27) against members of that elite group.

nfosys ATP Beyond The Numbers shows how not every point is created equal
In July 2017, Alex de Minaur was grinding his way through $15K Futures tournaments in Portugal. The 18-year-old Australian was learning the game, earning his stripes, and laying the foundation for his pro career.

Fast forward to July 2018 and the 19-year-old from Sydney is now one of the hottest players on the ATP World Tour. He has jumped from No. 244 to No. 45 in 12 months, and has only 30 ATP Rankings points to defend through the rest of the 2018.


Look out world.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of De Minaur’s meteoric rise up the ATP Rankings once again uncovers that all points are not created equal in our sport.

Consider these 2018 metrics the next time you get disappointed about losing a point in your match:

De Minaur's win/loss record is a healthy 16-13.

He has won $609,891 in prize money.

He made the finals of the Citi Open, an ATP World Tour 500-level event, in Washington last week, and also reached the finals of the Sydney International, an ATP World Tour 250-level event, in January.

He has actually lost 14 more points than he has won (2210 won / 2224 lost).

In 2018, De Minaur’s ATP Ranking has climbed from No. 208 to No. 45, but you would never know it from looking at the amount of points he has won and lost.


The reality of tennis is that the margins between winning and losing are razor thin. A point or two won at the right time in Washington can help launch a career. A point or two lost in Cincinnati can stop momentum in its tracks.

De Minaur is excelling more on the return side of the game than serving so far. He is currently ranked No. 47 on the Infosys ATP Return LEADERBOARD, powered by Infosys Nia Data, but drops down to No. 64 when serving.


What De Minaur does do well is perform under pressure. He is 18th best on tour in the past 52 weeks in winning tie-breaks at 61.5 per cent, and 15th best with deciding sets won, at 66.7 per cent.

De Minaur is currently in third place in the ATP Race To Milan, behind Alexander Zverev and Stefanos Tsitsipas. The top seven will qualify automatically for the Next Gen ATP Finals, to be held 6-10 November in Milan, while the eighth spot will be reserved for the winner of an all-Italian qualifier tournament to be held just prior to the prestigious 21-and-under event.

Who knows how much further his Race position is going to climb when that tournament kicks off on 6 November.

Beyond The Numbers

Infosys

Player Features

John Isner

2018
Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers looks at how striking aces is the ultimate weapon

There are only five players in the Top 50 of the ATP Rankings that hit on average at least one ace per service game in 2018.

Aces are the ultimate serve weapon, but performance varies greatly at the pinnacle of our sport with the number of aces hit per game. An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers identifies that the average amount of aces that the Top 50 hit per game is 0.54, or approximately one ace every two games.

The table below has the leading five players from the current Top 50 (as of 13 August 2018) with the highest average aces per game, and also their performance in 2017 as a comparison.

Top 50: Leading Five Players Average Aces Per Game

Current ATP Ranking Player 2018 Aces/Game 2017 Aces/Game
No. 9 John Isner (USA) 1.45 1.40
No. 29 Milos Raonic (CAN) 1.38 1.07
No. 18 Nick Kyrgios (AUS) 1.34 1.06
No. 6 Kevin Anderson (RSA) 1.14 1.03
No. 34 Sam Querrey (USA) 1.03 1.00
Imagine for a moment what it must be like to have such awesome firepower to begin a point. The influential dynamic for these five players is that they essentially only have to go and win three points in a service game, because they get to enjoy one ‘free’ point with their ace.

What’s also important to consider is that hitting the most number of aces on the ATP World Tour does not directly equate to being World No. 1. The average ranking of these five players is 19, so this also highlights that bombing aces is always nice, but there is still a lot of work to be done, as well on the return side of the equation, to win matches.

What’s fascinating is that World No. 1 Rafael Nadal actually drops to the bottom of this list, hitting the least amount of aces per game out of the Top 50 at just 0.2 aces per game, for an average of one ace out of every five service games.

The 19-year-old Canadian Denis Shapovalov leads #NextGenATP players in this category with an average of 0.72 aces per match this season. The following table highlights the Top 5 #NextGenATP players in the data set.

Top 5 #NextGen Players - Average Aces Per Game in 2018

Current ATP Ranking Player 2018 Aces/Game
No. 32 Denis Shapovalov (CAN) 0.72
No. 38 Frances Tiafoe (USA) 0.60
No. 4 Alexander Zverev (GER) 0.57
No. 15 Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) 0.56
No. 37 Andrey Rublev (0.39) 0.39
This analysis shows that diversity of playing styles is alive and well at the pinnacle of our sport. Both John Isner and Nadal are ranked in the Top 10, but sit at either end of the spectrum with the amount of aces they hit in their service games.

Beyond The Numbers

Infosys

2018

Roger Federer
Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers shows how Federer and the Top 10 efficiently hold serve
The pathway to holding serve for the Top 10 is not as straightforward as you might expect. With each point won or lost in a service game, outcomes vary and the percentage chance of holding serve rises and falls.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the point score in a service game, and the corresponding win percentages, sheds new light into the different ways elite players navigate their way to the finish line of holding their serve.

You May Also Like: The Importance Of Striking An Ace
The data set includes 27,399 service points from the Top 10 on the Monday after Wimbledon from the start of the 2015 season up to and including The Championships in 2018.

Roger Federer and Kevin Anderson lead the Top 10 in winning the opening point of their service games and surging to 15/0. When Federer has gone to 15/0 during the past three and a half years, he has won an astonishing 95.9 per cent (1766/1840) of his service games. In 2018 alone, Federer has dropped serve only nine times (335/344) after leading 15/0.

Best Record Moving to 15/0

Position

Player

15/0

0/15

1

R. Federer

74.5%

25.5%

2

K. Anderson

71.5%

28.5%

T3

J. Martin del Potro

70.4%

29.6%

T3

J. Isner

70.4%

29.6%

5

N. Djokovic

69.7%

30.3%

6

M. Cilic

69.2%

30.8%

7

G. Dimitrov

68.5%

31.5%

8

A. Zverev

66.3%

33.7%

9

D. Thiem

65.8%

34.2%

10

R. Nadal

65.1%

34.9%

-

AVERAGE

69.1%

30.9%

With two points completed, eight of the 10 players are more likely to be sitting at 30/0 than any other scoreline. The two outliers were Alexander Zverev and Dominic Thiem, who were more likely to be at 15/15 than 30/0.

Federer again led the field, getting to 30/0 52.8 per cent of the time, while John Isner rose up the leaderboard to second place at 50.5 per cent. When Isner has led 30/0 on serve in the 2018 season, he has dropped serve only one time, winning 258 of 259 service games.

Best Record Moving to 30/0

Position

Player

30/0

15/15

0/30

1

R. Federer

52.8%

39.8%

7.4%

2

J. Isner

50.5%

41.5%

8.0%

3

K. Anderson

49.9%

40.8%

9.3%

4

N. Djokovic

46.6%

43.1%

10.3%

5

M. Cilic

46.6%

42.9%

10.5%

6

J. Martin del Potro

45.8%

44.6%

9.6%

7

G. Dimitrov

45.6%

42.1%

12.3%

8

R. Nadal

44.7%

44.4%

10.8%

9

D. Thiem

43.3%

44.3%

12.4%

10

A. Zverev

42.6%

45.2%

12.1%

-

AVERAGE

46.8%

42.9%

10.3%

All players in the Top 10 had a higher percentage chance of being at 30/15 than either 40/0, 15/30 or 0/40 after the first three points of their service game.

Juan Martin del Potro had the highest percentage chance of hitting 30/15, finding himself at that scoreline in about 46 per cent of service games. When the Argentine has led 30/15 since the start of the 2015 season, he has held 93 per cent (708/761) of the time.

Most Likely To Be At 30/15

Position

Player

30/15

1

J. Martin del Potro

45.7%

2

J. Isner

45.3%

3

A. Zverev

43.7%

4

N. Djokovic

43.1%

5

M. Cilic

43.1%

6

D. Thiem

43.1%

7

R. Nadal

42.8%

8

R. Federer

42.7%

9

K. Anderson

41.8%

10

G. Dimitrov

41.0%

-

AVERAGE

43.1%

The most likely outcome after four points for the Top 10 is to be at a scoreline of 40/15. Isner was the best performer at this scoreline, navigating his way to 40/15 43 per cent of the time.

The most likely scoreline after five points are played is game over. All of the Top 10 average holding serve more than 50 per cent of the time from this scoreline, with Isner leading the way at a commanding 60.9 per cent.

Holding Serve After Five Points

Position

Player

Game

1

J. Isner

60.9%

2

R. Federer

60.1%

3

K. Anderson

58.8%

4

M. Cilic

56.6%

5

N. Djokovic

54.7%

6

J. Martin del Potro

53.0%

7

R. Nadal

52.6%

8

G. Dimitrov

52.5%

9

D. Thiem

52.1%

10

A. Zverev

51.4%

-

AVERAGE

55.3%

And this is a look at the average game score of our Top 10 group after five points have been played:

Game = 54.7%
40/30 = 30.7%
30/40 = 14.6%

This fascinating deep dive into point score and win percentages uncovers that a point score in a game for the Top 10 progresses from Love-all to 15/0, 30/0, 30/15, 40/15 and finally game. But it’s not always as smooth sailing as that.

Beyond The Numbers

Infosys

2018

Player Features

Juan Martin del Potro
Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers investigates how well the Top 10 close the door when given the opportunity
Is tennis really a race to 40?

Consider the following metrics at the elite level of our sport. If a Top 10 player is the first to reach the point score of 40 when serving or receiving – no matter how many points the opponent has – they are on average favoured to win the game.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 from the start of the 2015 season to this week identifies that being first to 40 is almost a lock to hold when serving, and makes the returner a statistical favourite when returning.

The only exception to that rule was John Isner and Kevin Anderson returning with the point score at 30/40. For all other Top 10 players, they were the favourite when returning if they got to 40 first whether serving or receiving.

Current Top 10: Percentage Chance of Winning The Game Being First to 40
(Leader in each point score in Bold)

Ranking

Player

40/0

40/15

40/30

0/40*

15/40*

30/40*

1

Rafael Nadal

99.5%

98.2%

93.1%

87.5%

81.0%

66.6%

2

Roger Federer

99.7%

98.5%

95.2%

75.3%

69.1%

55.5%

3

Novak Djokovic

99.1%

97.6%

93.2%

83.8%

76.7%

61.7%

4

Juan Martin del Potro

99.8%

98.5%

93.8%

87.6%

75.8%

56.3%

5

Alexander Zverev

98.7%

97.1%

92.3%

84.6%

75.1%

61.8%

6

Marin Cilic

99.8%

98.9%

94.6%

80.8%

65.4%

52.0%

7

Grigor Dimitrov

99.2%

97.4%

91.7%

76.9%

72.8%

52.4%

8

Dominic Thiem

99.1%

97.5%

92.0%

78.9%

68.4%

54.6%

9

Kevin Anderson

99.4%

97.8%

93.7%

68.9%

65.5%

49.2%

10

John Isner

99.8%

99.0%

97.1%

57.1%

56.8%

41.3%

-

AVERAGE

99.4%

98.1%

93.7%

78.1%

70.7%

55.1%

*Top 10 player is returning

What’s fascinating is that Juan Martin del Potro was the peak performer (tied with Marin Cilic) holding serve at 40/0, at 99.8 per cent, and was also the leader breaking serve from 0/40 when returning, at 87.6 per cent.

John Isner led the Top 10 holding from 40/15 (98.1 per cent) and 40/30 (93.7 per cent), while Rafael Nadal led the way breaking from 15/40 (81 per cent) and 30/40 (66.6 per cent).



The data also presents an interesting proposition to consider…

You play a practice set where you always start at 40/30 on your own service games, and your opponent must always start serving in a 0/40 hole in their service games. Statistically, which one is better for you?

It turns out that serving at 40/30 for the Top 10 is far superior, as they average holding 93.7 per cent of the time, while breaking 78.1 per cent of the time when returning at 0/40.

Getting to the point score of 40 gets you to within one point of winning the game. Now we have some percentages at the elite level of our sport to know exactly how close they really are to taking the next step and winning it.

Beyond The Numbers

2018

Novak Djokovic

Infosys

Rafael Nadal
Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers shows that the two all-time greats are returning well above ".300"
If you can get on base three times out of 10 in baseball, which is referred to as batting .300, then you are one of the elite in the sport.

Statistics in tennis usually focus on much higher winning percentages, but an equivalent stat does exist with an almost identical win percentage – points won returning first serves.

In baseball, you must stare down a 100 mph fastball, and in tennis the speed of a first serve can regularly reach 130-mph plus. Both very difficult propositions to begin the contest.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 20 from the 2015 season to present identifies that, on average, they win 29.5 per cent against first serves, or .295 in baseball vernacular.


The batter and the returner both face serious heat to begin the point, and both are defined as “successful” if they conquer the pitcher or server just one out of every three times.

Since 2015, Rafael Nadal leads the current Top 20 with points won returning first serves at 34.5 per cent. The other seven players that successfully batted above .300 are Novak Djokovic (34.2%), Diego Schwartzman (33%), Roger Federer (32.3%), Fabio Fognini (31.5%), David Goffin (31.4%), Kei Nishikori (30.6%) and Dominic Thiem (30.4%).

Current Top 20: Points Won Returning First Serves 2015 to present

ATP Ranking

Player

First-Serve Return Points Won

Total First-Serve Return Points

Win Percentage

1

R. Nadal

4209

12207

34.5%

3

N. Djokovic

4215

12309

34.2%

14

D. Schwartzman

2788

8446

33%

2

R. Federer

3346

10359

32.3%

13

F. Fognini

3077

9781

31.5%

11

D. Goffin

3763

11971

31.4%

12

K. Nishikori

3416

11172

30.6%

8

D. Thiem

4191

13774

30.4%

7

G. Dimitrov

3470

11655

29.8%

5

A. Zverev

3344

11296

29.6%

6

M. Cilic

3601

12179

29.6%

4

J.M. Del Potro

2092

7197

29.1%

17

J. Sock

2575

9292

27.7%

16

K. Edmund

1944

7114

27.3%

18

B. Coric

2319

8519

27.2%

19

L. Pouille

2320

8611

26.9%

20

M. Raonic

2762

10299

26.8%

15

S. Tsitsipas

871

3282

26.5%

9

K. Anderson

2924

11274

25.9%

10

J. Isner

2651

12158

21.8%

-

AVERAGE

59878

202895

29.5%

What’s interesting is how much the court surface factors into points won against first serves.

Of the seven ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournaments completed so far in 2018, Nadal has the largest total of first-serve return points won by a champion, and also the least. At the clay-court Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters, he won a staggering 43.6 per cent of first-serve return points, but won just 29.1 per cent while winning the Rogers Cup, the hard-court Masters 1000 tournament in Toronto.

2018 Completed Masters 1000 Events: First-Serve Return Points Won By Champion

#

Masters 1000

Winner

First-Serve Return Points Won / Total

Win %

1

Monte-Carlo

R. Nadal

58/133

43.6%

2

Rome

R. Nadal

91/217

41.9%

3

Madrid

A. Zverev

80/219

36.5%

4

Cincinnati

N. Djokovic

107/327

32.7%

5

Indian Wells

J. M. Del Potro

97/299

32.4%

6

Miami

J. Isner

83/271

30.6%

7

Toronto

R. Nadal

60/206

29.1%



AVERAGE

-

576/1672

34.4%

The clay-court tournament winners at Monte-Carlo, Rome and Madrid averaged winning 40.2 per cent of first-serve return points, while the hard-court champions at Cincinnati, Indian Wells, Miami and Toronto were way off that pace, winning 31.5 per cent of first-serve return points.

Baseball has a pitcher and a hitter. Tennis has a server and a receiver. The similarities, particularly defined by the winning percentages, are striking.