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The rampaging Spanish bull has reinvented his game Down Under.
The Rafael Nadal who stormed into the 2019 Australian Open semi-finals without dropping a set is cleverly crafting a sizable advantage in the first four shots of the rally much more than we have ever seen before from Nadal.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis comparing the Spaniard Down Under in 2017, where he lost in a thrilling five-set Australian Open final to Roger Federer, to his first five matches in Melbourne this year, identify two vastly different game styles.
The 2017 Rafa had the consistent, grinding “Spanish Method” stamped all over it. His first five matches this year remarkably have seen him play fewer long rallies than the tournament average. Nadal is striking first this year, and asking questions later.
The following comparison identifies how he is constructing many more points in shorter rallies than longer ones compared to 2017.
Rafael Nadal 2017 & 2019 Australian Opens / 2019 Australian Open Tournament Average
Rally Length
2017 Australian Open
2019 Australian Open (First five matches)
2019 Australian Open Tournament Average
0-4 Shots
62%
71%
71%
5-8 Shots
23%
21%
19%
9+ Shots
14%
8%
10%
The percentage shift from 2017 to 2019 is astonishing. The nine percentage-point uptick in shorter points, from 62 per cent to 71 per cent, shows a willingness to fully embrace an aggressive hard-court strategy – not just try and modify his successful clay-court style.
He has almost slashed in half the amount of long rallies he is playing, reducing them from 14 per cent to eight per cent. Why win the point in 13 shots when you can win it in three?
You May Also Like: Moya: Rafa's Recovery Is Right On Track
In his first two rounds against James Duckworth and Matthew Ebden, Nadal won a total of 200 points, with only 10 of them (5% total points won) coming in the nine-plus rally length. His average rally length to the semi-finals has been just 3.7 shots, which is slightly shorter than his semi-final opponent, Stefanos Tsitsipas, who is averaging 3.73 shots.
Competitive Advantage
Nadal is playing more shorter points, and correspondingly, carving out a much bigger advantage in points won and lost in the zero-to-four shot rally length. It’s one thing to just play a lot of shorter points, but Nadal is actually thriving against his opponents in shorter points, winning almost 100 more points than he has lost (344 won - 249 lost = +95) in the zero-to-four shot rally length.
Points Won / Lost At Each Rally Length vs Opponent
Rally Length
2017 Australian Open
2019 Australian Open (First five matches)
0-4 Shots
+52
+95
5-8 Shots
+24
+30
9+ Shots
+39
+14
The added advantage of a more urgent game style for the Spaniard is that a “first strike” strategy provides less wear and tear on his body. To the semi-final, the Spaniard had played only 70 points in the nine-plus shot rally length, while Tsitsipas has played 120.
Rafa is back to peak form, and will arrive fresher into the semi-final courtesy of his upgraded hard-court strategy. A fresh bull is always more dangerous than a wounded one.
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
Before 1991, statistics were not kept in tennis so players, coaches and fans had no other choice but to fill the gap with opinion and guess work. From 1991 to 2002, the statistics were simple, but in the last handful of years the data has become a lot richer in content.
Tennis statistics have matured past simply counting something because it can be counted. The focus has turned to better understanding how our sport is organised, and what matters most to winning tennis matches.
Know what happens. Know why you won.
An Infosys ATP deep dive into the past five Australian Opens shows that the organisation of our sport is drifting towards shorter points because that is naturally where the main difference between winning and losing lives.
Rally Length: Australian Open 2015-2019
Rally Length
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
0-4 Shots
70.4%
69.2%
67.9%
69.1%
69.6%
5-8 Shots
19.6%
20.3%
21.4%
20.1%
20.1%
9+ Shots
10.0%
10.5%
10.7%
10.7%
10.2%
The table above identifies just how our sport is organised. Longer rallies are becoming slightly less prevalent. It’s a wake-up call for practice courts all over the world, where consistency and shot tolerance of forehands and backhands are revered much more than the specific work of serves and returns.
It makes no sense to practise something 90 per cent of the time (extended rallies) when it only appears 10 per cent of the time (9+ shot rallies) in a match. It’s jaw dropping to know that seven points out of 10 in our sport require a player to touch the ball a maximum of just two times. With one of these two shots guaranteed to be a serve or return, shouldn’t they receive maximum attention on the practice court?
Where You Win
Every match begins as a 50-50 battle, but when you analyse where the match winners outperformed the match losers, it’s clear to see where they found their separation — significantly more in shorter rallies than long ones.
Match Winner Won More Points Than Match Loser In Specific Rally Length
Rally Length
Match Winner Also Won More Points Than Match Loser In Specific Rally Length
0-4 Shots
85%
5-8 Shots
70%
9+ Shots
62%
Players who won their matches correspondingly won more points than the match losers 85 per cent of the time in the 0-4 shot rally length, which was significantly more than in either of the other two rally lengths. Only 33 per cent of the time did the match winner win more points than the match loser in all three rally lengths.
True to the data, Novak Djokovic crafted his advantage much more in the shorter rallies than the longer ones to win the 2019 Australian Open title. Djokovic won 112 more points than he lost in the 0-4 rally length, which was more of an advantage than the other two rally lengths combined (+90).
Djokovic won 202 more points than he lost (687 to 484), with 55 per cent of the 202 point advantage (112) crafted in the 0-4 shot rally length. It’s easy to remember Djokovic’s more spectacular longer rallies from the tournament, but he gained maximum separation from his opponents when he touched the ball just a maximum of two times.
Novak Djokovic's Seven Matches: Rally Length Points Won & Lost
Rally Length
Points Won
Points Lost
Advantage
% Of Advantage
0-4 Shots
422
310
+112
55%
5-8 Shots
152
108
+44
22%
9+ Shots
113
67
+46
23%
TOTAL
687
485
202
100%
It’s clear to see that match data will create a paradigm shift with how we evaluate what actually happens in a match. This new learning will heavily influence the practice court where more focus will be given to the serve, return, serve +1 and return +1 shots rather than simply hitting forehands and backhands cross court ad infinitum.
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
Why You Can't Let The Big Three Put Their First-Serve Returns In Play
Spoiler:
The first serve comes barreling down. If Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer or Novak Djokovic return the powerful delivery back into play, they just completely levelled the playing field.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the Big Three returning first serves on hard courts and clay courts shows they combine to win 50.1 per cent (8555/17073) of first-serve return points when they get their return back in play. The data set comes from ATP Masters 1000 events from 2011-2018 and the Nitto ATP Finals.
On hard courts, Djokovic was the only one of the three players to be above 50 per cent (52.2%), while Nadal took the honours on clay, winning 50.6 per cent (1378/2723) of first-serve return points.
Hard Court
1. Djokovic = 52.2% (2321/4449)
2. Federer = 49.4% (1998/4042)
3.Nadal = 48.5% (1192/2459)
4. Average = 50.3%
Clay & Hard Combined
1. Djokovic = 51.5% (3436/6673)
2. Nadal = 49.6% (2570/5182)
3. Federer = 48.9% (2549/5218)
4. Average = 50.1%
When you break the service box down into the three target areas — wide, body and T — you gain a little more insight into the specific strengths of each player returning first serves.
What’s interesting is that Federer was the top performer returning wide in the Deuce court on both hard courts and clay courts. Nadal, with his lefty prowess, dominated five of the six Ad court locations (three each on hard and clay), while Djokovic was superior with his backhand return against first serves down the T in the Deuce court.
Hard Court: Best Performer Wide/Body/T vs First Serves
Hard Court
Deuce Court
Ad Court
Wide
Federer (53.9%)
Nadal (50.7%)
Body
Djokovic (50.2%)
Nadal (62.1%)
T
Djokovic (52.4%)
Djokovic (54.4%)
Clay Court: Best Performer Wide/Body/T vs First Serves
Clay Court
Deuce Court
Ad Court
Wide
Federer (54.2%)
Nadal (49.2%)
Body
Federer (61.3%)
Nadal (52.4%)
T
Djokovic (52.2%)
Nadal (52.0%)
Of the 12 locations for clay courts and hard courts, Nadal was superior in five of them, followed by Djokovic with four and Federer with three. The stars don't always put the first serve back in play, but when they do, they basically have as good of a chance as the server to win the point.
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
At 0/30, Don't Worry, Be Happy... If You Serve Like Isner Or Delpo
Spoiler:
Almost seven thousand times last season, players in the Top 100 found themselves down 0/30 when serving. On average, only the Top 10 found a way to win more service games than they lost from this precarious position.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the Top 100 from the 2018 season identifies that only 18 players won more than 50 per cent of their service games from 0/30, with eight of those players being ranked in the Top 10 and the remaining 10 spread throughout the rest of the Top 100 of the ATP Rankings.
This is a normally invisible insight into what separates players at different levels of our sport. Getting into a 0/30 hole is inevitable no matter your ranking. Getting out of it is typically done by only those at the top of the tree.
The Top 10 averaged holding serve 52 per cent (437/836) of the time, which was more than 10 percentage points higher than the rest of the Top 100.
Top 10 vs 11-100: Holding Serve From 0/30
Top 10 = 52% (437/836)
Rest of the Top 100 = 41% (2490/6019)
There is a clear divide in the success rate of holding from 0/30 from players in the Top 10 compared to the rest of the Top 100. Performance gets a little closer when you compare Top 20 to the rest of the Top 100, but a seven percentage-point gap still exists.
Holding from 0/30
Top 20 = 48% (819/1692)
Rest of Top 100 = 41% (2108/5163)
Things get closer still when you cut the sample size in half.
John Isner, who returns to action next week at the New York Open, came back nearly 70 per cent of the time, while Novak Djokovic was the best performer of the Big Three holding from 0/30.
N. Djokovic 53.9% (48/89)
R. Federer 52.5% (32/61)
R. Nadal 48.7% (37/76)
Who Faced 0/30 The Most In 2018
Year-End 2018 ATP Ranking
Player
Times Fell Down 0/30 While Serving In 2018
No. 47
Damir Dzumhur
116
No. 13
Fabio Fognini
108
No. 42
Adrian Mannarino
107
No. 4
Alexander Zverev
104
No. 27
Denis Shapovalov
104
No. 17
Diego Schwartzman
104
The good news is that this is an area of the game that can be improved by directly replicating the scenario on the practice court. Go play a practice set where both players start their service games at 0/30. If you can hold half of the time, you know you are on par with the players at the elite level of our sport.
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
nfosys ATP Beyond The Numbers shows how Opelka is on pace for a record-setting career
Records and milestones are falling at will for 21-year-old Riley Opelka. The 6’11” American won his maiden ATP title at the New York Open on Sunday and rose 33 spots to a career-high of No. 56 in the ATP Rankings this week. An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Opelka’s biggest weapon, his serve, uncovers just how easily aces flow from his racquet.
1. Career High / Aces Per Match
Opelka has hit 654 aces in 32 tour-level matches to quickly become the career leader in Average Aces Per Match at 20.4. It’s a staggering achievement for such a young player, and it is an extremely positive indicator that his emerging career can go in whatever direction he wants.
Top 5 Career Leaders: Average Aces Per Match
Reilly Opelka = 20.4
Ivo Karlovic = 19.8
John Isner = 18.1
Wayne Arthurs = 15.8
Sam Groth = 15.4
As good as those numbers are, his record during the past 52 weeks is even more impressive. Opelka is averaging a mind-blowing 27.8 aces per match during the past 12 months. It’s as close to untouchable as our sport has witnessed.
2. Ace Record For A Match
Opelka defeated John Isner 6-7(10), 7-6(14), 7-6(4) in the semi-finals of the New York Open last week, with both players combining to strike 81 aces – an ATP record for a three-set match. Opelka hit 43, and Isner hit 38.
Read More: Opelka Reflects On Winning First ATP Tour Title
The duo also combined to hit 87 aces in their first-round match at the Australian Open this year, with Isner contributing 47 and Opelka 40 during four tie-break sets.
3. New York Open / Aces Per Match
Opelka’s semi-final and final both went the distance to a third set tie-break, with the young American striking 43 aces in both matches. Opelka eclipsed his average ace tally (20.4) in four of his five matches in New York, and more than doubled the average in his final two matches.
New York Open: Opelka Aces Per Match
Round
Opponent
Score
Aces
Final
Brayden Schnur
6-1, 6-7(7), 7-6(7)
43
Semi Final
John Isner
6-7(8), 7-6(14), 7-6(4)
43
Qtr Final
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez
6-3, 6-4
14
Rd 16
Denis Istomin
6-7(8), 7-6(6), 1-0 RET
32
RD 32
Adrian Mannarino
2-6, 7-6(5), 6-4
24
-
-
AVERAGE
31
The simplicity of Opelka’s serve motion is a key component to him being so accurate and often hitting close to the lines when he hits aces. His fluid serve motion can be broken down into five phases.
1. Ready Position: Opelka leans forward on his front foot with the neck of his racquet resting on his left hand. That helps hold the weight of the racquet in the ready position, which in turn keeps his right arm loose.
2. Weight Transfers Back: He rocks to his back foot to build energy and keeps his racquet low while lifting his tossing arm high in the air.
3. Loading Phase: Opelka then brings his back foot up right behind his front foot and drops into a deep knee bend, preparing to explode up and forward into the court. Importantly, he keeps his tossing arm straight up in the air as long as he can to help make his toss more consistent.
4. Explosion At Contact: Opelka keeps his eyes and head up at contact and has his whole body in the air in front of the baseline as he unleashes all his energy into the serve.
5. Into The Court: Opelka lands a long way into the court on his left leg, and impressively, does not go too deep and low with his knee bend to then prepare for the next shot – if indeed there is a next shot.
Opelka is the real deal, and will be looking to break into the Top 50 and beyond in the coming months. He has no points to defend from Indian Wells or Miami. Of the 18 tournaments he currently has points from, 13 are sourced from ATP Challenger Tour events or qualifying for ATP Tour events. That landscape is going to look very, very different 12 months from now.
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers shows how the Argentine and Italian still hold their own on the ATP Tour
The average height of the Top 10 at the end of the 2018 season was 6'3”. While our sport is undeniably getting taller at the top of the tree, last year, there were two Top 20 standouts under 6' who led the way in the crucible of converting break points when returning.
Hello Fabio and Diego. An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the Top 20 in the year-end 2018 ATP Rankings focused on break point conversion against first and second serves. The analysis uncovered that Fabio Fognini and Diego Schwartzman stood tallest on tour when the biggest moments in a match arrived.
Break Points Won vs. First Serve
Fognini (5’10”) led the Top 20 in 2018 with break points won against first serves, converting 34.7 per cent (123/329) of the time. The 31-year-old Italian finished the 2018 season ranked No. 13, which equaled a career-high he first reached in 2014.
The leading five players from the Top 20 in the 2018 season:
F. Fognini = 37.4% (123/329)
B. Coric = 36.7% (80/218)
N. Djokovic = 36.3% (143/394)
R. Nadal = 35.8% (102/285)
R. Federer = 35.4% (86/243)
Break Points Won vs. Second Serve
Schwartzman (170cm / 5’7”) was only 17th best of the Top 20 winning break points against first serves in 2018, but he vaulted all the way up to the the top when he got a look at a second serve.
You May Also Like: Opelka Crushing Aces, Milestones To Start 2019
The 26-year-old Argentine posted a career-best ranking of No. 11 midway through 2018 after reaching the quarter-finals of Roland Garros, losing to eventual champion Rafael Nadal in four sets.
The leading five players converting break points against second serves in 2018:
D. Schwartzman = 62.1% (123/198)
R. Nadal = 60.1% (113/188)
F. Fognini = 56.5% (113/200)
A. Zverev = 54.7% (135/247)
K. Khachanov = 53.9% (103/191)
Alexander Zverev saw the most break points against second serves in 2018 with 247 and had the second highest total against first serves, at 352. World No. 1 Novak Djokovic had the most break points against first serves, at 394.
There was almost a 20 percentage-point gap between the average win percentage of the Top 20 converting break points against first serves versus second serves in 2018.
Top 20 Average: Converting Break Points
Against First Serves = 31.6%
Against Second Serves = 51.1%
Taller players universally reign supreme on serve leaderboards in our sport, but players under 6' are still thriving and competing at the highest level by dominating on the return side of the equation.
A hidden gem of our sport is that John Isner, at 6’10”, and Schwartzman, 5'7”, can equally be superstars on the global stage. Diversity of player height and game styles in tennis continues to offer a pathway to the top for anyone who has the burning ambition to reach for the stars.
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
Learn why the former World No. 3 could be dangerous at Indian Wells
It’s no surprise that the ‘Big Four’ of Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray hold the four best hard-court records among active players at ATP Masters 1000 events. The quartet has also captured 13 of the past 15 titles at the BNP Paribas Open, which begins this week at Indian Wells.
The FedEx ATP Performance Zone shows the fifth player on the list is former World No. 3 Milos Raonic. The 28-year-old Canadian, currently ranked No. 14, has won 66.4 per cent of his Masters 1000 matches on hard courts. That ranks 13th overall among all players who have played 20 or more matches at this level. The eight-time ATP Tour champion has performed especially well at Indian Wells.
Raonic has advanced to the semi-finals or better on his past three appearances in the desert. At the year’s first Masters 1000 event he holds a 19-7 record, equating to a 73.1 winning percentage.
Best Hard-Court Masters 1000 Records (Active Players)
Player Record Winning Percentage
1. Novak Djokovic 228-45 83.5%
2. Roger Federer 251-63 80.0%
3. Rafael Nadal 191-59 76.4%
4. Andy Murray 161-51 75.9%
5. Milos Raonic 75-38 66.4%
“I just have a personal calm at this event maybe compared to others. It's a little bit quieter here. It's easier to be around the tennis. You don't have to fight through traffic to get here. You get here with ease, so I think that gives me a personal calm,” Raonic said at Indian Wells last year. “I think the conditions help. Obviously this year it's quite a bit slower than it has been in the past, but the ball still moves through the air, even though the court slows it down a bit, but it's always bounced high. So I think there have been a lot of things that have contributed to me feeling comfortable here.”
Raonic also owns 14 wins at Miami and Cincinnati, Masters 1000 events that are also played on hard courts. Overall, Raonic has advanced to the quarter-finals or better at hard-court tournaments at this level 17 times.
The big-serving right-hander has made three Masters 1000 finals: 2013 Canada, 2014 Paris and 2016 Indian Wells. Fittingly, all of those efforts came on hard courts.
'Big Three' & American Legends Lead The Pack Overall
Djokovic and Federer, who have won 83.5 per cent and 80.0 per cent of their Masters 1000 hard-court matches, respectively, are Nos. 1 and 2 in the category for all players, not just those who are active. Two American former No. 1s Andre Agassi and Pete Sampras are right behind.
Agassi, who triumphed at Indian Wells in 2001, won 77.8 per cent of his Masters 1000 hard-court matches, while two-time champion Pete Sampras was victorious 77.2 per cent of the time. Nadal rounds out the Top 5 at 76.4 per cent.
Best Hard-Court Masters 1000 Records (Overall)
Player Record Winning Percentage
1. Novak Djokovic 228-45 83.5%
2. Roger Federer 251-63 80.0%
3. Andre Agassi 168-48 77.8%
4. Pete Sampras 125-37 77.2%
5. Rafael Nadal 191-59 76.4%
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
Why Federer Changes His Return Strategy vs. Nadal & Other Lefties
Spoiler:
Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers investigates where players deliver their second-serve returns
How much do top-tier players adjust their strategies against left-handed opponents?
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 focuses on return direction back to the opponent’s Serve +1 forehand or backhand, which naturally change sides of the court against a left-handed or right-handed server.
The results are compelling and highlight which side of the equation each player is on when it comes to answering the following question: Is it more important to hit the ball where you want to hit it, or more important to hit it where your opponent does not want it?
The data set comes from ATP Masters 1000s and Nitto ATP Finals from 2011-2018, and is specific to the following two criteria:
Returning a second serve.
The second serve is directed wide in the Ad court.
These two criteria were chosen as the returner has more control of his return direction versus a second serve, and if the serve is wide in the Ad court, both cross and down the line are viable options.
Return Direction vs. Right-Handed Server
As expected, every player in the Top 10 primarily directed the wide second serve return back crosscourt to the right-hander’s Serve +1 backhand.
Juan Martin del Potro stuck to this strategy the most, directing 91 per cent of his Ad court wide returns crosscourt. Both John Isner and Kei Nishikori mixed the most, with 64 per cent crosscourt and 36 per cent down the line to the Serve +1 forehand.
Current Top 10: Returning Direction vs. Right-Handed Server
Position
Player
Return cross to Ad Court (to the righty backhand)
Return line to the Deuce Court (to the righty forehand)
1
J.M. Del Potro
91%
9%
2
M. Cilic
87%
13%
3
A. Zverev
84%
16%
4
N. Djokovic
84%
16%
5
R. Nadal
84%
16%
6
K. Anderson
80%
20%
7
R. Federer
78%
22%
8
D. Thiem
72%
28%
9
K. Nishikori
64%
36%
10
J. Isner
64%
36%
-
AVERAGE
79%
21%
Return Direction vs. Left-Handed Server
This is where gamestyle, opponent awareness, specific strategies and prowess with the backhand return all come into play.
Four of the Top 10 players in the ATP Rankings changed the primary return direction down the line to stick with the common strategy of making the server have to hit a Serve +1 backhand. Roger Federer hit the most down the line (71%), followed by Rafael Nadal (59%), Isner (56%) and Novak Djokovic (55%). Kevin Anderson was equal with a 50-50 ratio.
Current Top 10: Returning Direction vs Left-Handed Server
Position
Player
Return cross to Ad Ct (to the lefty forehand)
Return line to the Deuce Ct (to the lefty backhand)
1
R. Federer
29%
71%
2
R. Nadal
42%
59%
3
J. Isner
44%
56%
4
N. Djokovic
45%
55%
5
K. Anderson
50%
50%
6
D. Thiem
60%
40%
7
K. Nishikori
61%
39%
7
A. Zverev
71%
29%
9
J.M. Del Potro
86%
14%
10
M. Cilic
89%
11%
-
AVERAGE
58%
42%
Interestingly, players such as Marin Cilic, Del Potro and Alexander Zverev led the way with backing their aggressive returns crosscourt, where they like to hit it, not concerned that it was going to the left-hander’s Serve +1 forehand.
Overall, the Top 10 averaged directing 79 per cent of returns crosscourt against right-handers, but only 58 per cent against left-handers. That definitely highlights an adjustment versus left-handed servers.
Sometimes, the return crosscourt is so dominant that it doesn’t really matter what’s waiting for it. Other times, it’s all about the age-old strategy of trying to make your opponent hit as many backhands as possible.
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
You see it, you feel it, but this one bewildering Roger Federer statistic still makes you scratch your head in disbelief.
Federer’s illustrious career is indelibly etched into the rows and columns of stat sheets, identifying where the Swiss legend has cleverly crafted his advantage over opponents for the past two decades.
Throughout his career, coming into the Miami Open presented by Itau, Federer has won more first-serve points (51,975), more second-serve points (23,412) and more service games (15,901) than anyone in history. In the big moments, he has converted more break points (4,675) than any other player, and is second only to David Ferrer in saving the most break points, at 4,107.
But there is one puzzling analytic that just doesn’t fit in with Federer's overwhelmingly successful body of work. It’s a square peg in a round hole, and it’s his break points converted percentage.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Federer’s performance converting break points during his career identifies a strange anomaly on his resume.
To give perspective to Federer’s outlier, it’s important to have something in which to compare. The leading four players in career break points converted have all been ranked right at the top of the tree in our sport – just like Federer.
Leading Four Players / Career Break Points Converted
Guillermo Coria 45.71% (career-high ranking No. 3)
Sergi Bruguera 44.96% (career-high ranking No. 3)
Rafael Nadal 44.94% (career-high ranking No. 1)
Thomas Muster 44.73% (career-high ranking No. 1)
Where does Federer rank? The Swiss legend sits at No. 91, with a conversion ratio of 41.13 per cent (4,675/11,367). When serving at break point, he is impressively ranked seventh with break points saved throughout his career at 67.15 per cent (4107/6116).
In 2019, Federer has struggled on break points even more than in past years. Coming into Miami with a solid 12-2 record, he has converted only 34.9 per cent (37/106) of break points this season, positioning him at 68th best on the ATP Tour. It’s a stat that simply doesn’t mesh with his overall body of work.
In the two matches he has lost so far in 2019, he is an astounding 2/23 on break points.
Roger Federer Two Losses In 2019
Tournament
Opponent
Round
On Break Points
Australian Open
Stefanos Tsitsipas
QF
0/12
BNP Paribas Open
Dominic Thiem
F
2/11
Federer has played only 18 matches so far this season, but his break point conversion percentage is well below previous years.
At the Miami Open, Federer's break point conversion (38.2%) has been slightly above his season average (33.6%), but still not where he would want it to be. He went 2/8 v Radu Albot, 3/10 v Filip Krajinovic, 3/3 v Daniil Medvedev and 5/13 v Kevin Anderson for a total of 13/34 through the quarter-finals.
The burning question is why? Is it his backhand return of serve, which is frequently targeted on big points, or is it simply a matter of unrealistically comparing this one area of his game to the outstanding metrics in the others?
At 37 years of age, Federer is still competing at an incredibly high level, is ranked No. 5 and came within two points of defeating Thiem in the Indian Wells ATP Masters 1000 final earlier this month.
Federer had break point with Thiem serving at 3-4, 30/40 in the deciding set and netted a backhand passing shot on the sixth shot of the rally.
As Federer well knows, it’s one thing in our sport to position yourself to finish. It’s another thing to actually close the door shut.
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
The Agassi & Edberg Stats That Have Stood The Test Of Time
Spoiler:
We like to think of tennis as a linear sport, where players continue to improve and records keep falling.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis identifies that is not always the case, as some masterful players from yesteryear posted career-best numbers that still have not been broken. Below are five players who put up amazing metrics in previous decades that have stood the test of time.
1. Mats Wilander: Hard-Court Break Points Converted Leader (45.58%)
Wilander played from 1981 to 1996, and spent 20 weeks ranked No. 1 in late 1988 and early 1989. He collected 33 titles, including three Grand Slams in 1988. Wilander was most comfortable on clay, where he won 20 of his 32 titles, including the first eight of his career.
But Wilander was also a very successful player on hard courts, winning nine titles, including the Australian Open and the US Open in 1988. Wilander remains to this day the career leader in break points converted on hard courts, at 45.58 per cent (201/441) from 61 matches.
2. Stefan Edberg: Hard-Court First-Serve Return Points Won (33.64%)
Edberg competed right around the same time as Wilander, turning pro in 1983 and finishing up in the same year in 1996. Edberg won more titles than Wilander, with 42, and spent 72 weeks at No. 1 in the ATP Rankings.
We tend to think of Edberg’s prowess more on the serving side with his flashy serve-and-volley tactics, but his career return numbers were better than his serving stats. He is ranked 18th best with return games won, and just 38th best with service games won.
Edberg still remains the career hard-court leader with first-serve return points won at 33.64% (3667/10,901) from 219 matches.
3. Alberto Berasategui: Second-Serve Return Points Won (56.31%)
The 5’8” Spaniard played from 1991 to 2001, winning 14 titles (all on clay) and reaching a career-high of No. 7 in 1994. He is our sport’s career leader with second-serve return points won at 56.31 per cent (7670/13621) from 477 matches, although Berasategui played 77 per cent (368/477) of his matches on clay courts, where is often easier to return serve.
His standout season was in 1994, when he won seven titles and lost in the final of Roland Garros 6-3, 7-5, 2-6, 6-1 to Sergi Bruguera.
4. Andre Agassi: Hard-Court Second Serve Return Points Won (56.08%)
Agassi’s career spanned from 1986 to 2006, and he spent 101 weeks at No. 1 along the way. Agassi won 60 titles, and had one of the most ferocious second-serve returns in the history of our sport.
If the second serve “sat there” to be hit, Agassi routinely stepped in and crushed it. He remains the career leader on hard courts with second-serve return points won at 56.08 per cent (11,141/19,868) from 584 matches.
5. Goran Ivanisevic: Grass-Court First-Serve Points Won (89.68%)
Ivanisevic played 85 matches on grass in his career, capturing the Manchester title in 1991 and Wimbledon in 2001, the last tour event he won.
Ivanisevic played from 1988 to 2004, reaching a career-high of No. 2 in 1994. His left-handed serve was a nightmare for opponents, especially on grass, and he remains the career leader in first-serve points won on grass at 89.68 per cent (4938/5677).
These five players dominated in their era with their own unique talents, and players in today’s game have not yet been able to catch them.
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
Why does Rafael Nadal stand so far back to return serve, especially on clay?
It’s an extreme strategy that other players seldom employ to the same degree, but it works wonders for the Spaniard. An Infosys Insights deep dive into Rafael Nadal’s dominant return game on clay courts reveals that his ultra-deep court position to return serve creates several small benefits that all add up to one big advantage.
The data set comes from a random sampling of 20 of Nadal’s clay court matches in the past two seasons, where he went 18-2. The two losses both came against Dominic Thiem, at the 2018 Mutua Madrid Open and the 2017 Internazionali BNL d'Italia in Rome.
Advantage One: More Returns In
When Nadal stands way back, the serve naturally slows down more at contact than it does for a returner who stands closer to the baseline. Nadal also gets to make contact with the ball at a lower height, which is much more in the strike zone around his waist than up higher around his shoulders. All that adds up to more returns back in the court.
The return of serve stroke typically has a shorter, blocking motion compared to a regular groundstroke. But because Nadal stands so far back and creates more time, he is able to take full cuts at the return and deal with it much more as a full-blooded swing than a blocking stroke.
You May Also Like: Why Rafa's Return On Hard Is Still Impressive
20-Match Analysis
First-Serve Returns Made
Nadal = 84.1%
Opponents = 79.4%
Second-Serve Returns Made
Nadal = 90%
Opponents = 85.2%
More returns in means fewer free points for the server.
Advantage Two: More Points Won
Once Nadal makes his return from deep near the back of the court, he immediately looks to move forward to a more regular baseline position to develop the point. Very few players have the strength to return the ball deep to the server when standing so far back in the court to return, which is one of the reasons why more players don’t do it.
Nadal not only puts more returns in play, he wins the ensuing rallies considerably more often than his opponents, who are returning from a more traditional position.
20-Match Analysis
First-Serve Returns Won
Nadal = 44.7%
Opponents = 31.1%
Second-Serve Returns Won
Nadal = 52.4%
Opponents = 33.2%
The obvious two questions:
Would Nadal enjoy such healthy win percentages over his opponents if he stood in a more traditional return position? Probably not.
Should opponents stand far back like Nadal to return serve as well? Again, not advisable.
Nadal has made a career out of hitting an extreme forehand with extreme technique that works for him. The same can be said of his ultra-deep return location.
The beauty of our sport is that there are many different ways to be successful, and what works incredibly well for one player may not be a good fit for another.
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
Think You're Gonna Break Rafael Nadal From 0/30? Read This First...
Spoiler:
Divide and conquer. The way to win big battles is to cut them up into smaller, more manageable ones. It’s also an ideal way to understand the constricting pressure Rafael Nadal applies at the beginning of a game against his opponents on clay courts.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Nadal competing in just the first two points of the game when serving and returning at the five biggest European clay-court events uncovers that he is almost unstoppable if he creates early separation.
The five tournaments are the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters, the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell, the Mutua Madrid Open, the Internazionali BNL d’Italia and Roland Garros.
Nadal played all five events from 2015-2018 but withdrew in the Round of 32 of Roland Garros in 2016 with a left wrist injury. Nadal has won 80 titles in his career, with these five tournaments representing 58 per cent (46) of that total.
Rafael Nadal 2015-2018 / Career
Event
2015-18 Titles
2015-18 Win/Loss
Career
Career Titles
Monte-Carlo
3
18-1
68-4
11
Barcelona
3
16-1
58-3
11
Madrid
1
14-3
49-11
5
Rome
1
11-3
56-6
8
Roland Garros
2
20-1
86-2
11
TOTAL
10
79-9
317-26
46
1. Nadal Serving: First Two Points Of The Game
In the past four years at these five events, Nadal has astonishingly lost serve only 12 times out of 424 service games when leading 30/0.
It’s the next best thing to automatic, and here’s where the battle gets even harder for his opponents. After playing just two points on serve, Nadal is more likely to be at 30/0 than either of the other two scores.
Nadal: Point Score Probability After Two Points Serving
30/0 = 46% (424/921)
15/15 = 43% (393/921)
0/30 = 11% (105/921)
Nadal is still well in command when serving at 15/15, holding 83 per cent (324/392) of the time. Even from the perilous position of 0/30, Nadal is still effectively in break-even territory, rallying to hold 49 per cent of the time.
Rafael Nadal: Percentage Of Holding Serve
Tournament
15/15
0/30
30/0
Monte-Carlo
78% (67/86)
50% (13/26)
98% (79/81)
Barcelona
89% (57/64)
50% (9/18)
95% (69/73)
Madrid
81% (57/70)
41% (7/17)
98% (79/81)
Rome
80% (48/60)
42% (5/12)
97% (61/63)
Roland Garros
85% (95/112)
53% (17/32)
98% (124/126)
TOTAL
83% (324/392)
49% (51/105)
97% (412/424)
2. Nadal Retuning: First Two Points Of The Game
While Nadal was more favoured to lead 30/0 after two points played when serving, his opponents are far more likely to lose one of the opening two points against the Spaniard when he is returning.
Nadal: Point Score Probability After Two Points Returning
15/15 = 55% (458/831)
0/30 = 25% (211/831)
30/0 = 19% (162/831)
Nadal forces his opponents to 15/15 55 per cent (458/831) of the time, instantly spiking the pressure metre. What’s fascinating is that his opponents slipped to 0/30 25 per cent (211/831) of the time, which was more often than they enjoyed a 30/0 lead, just 19 per cent (162/831) of the time.
The end result is that Nadal navigates himself to 30/0 when serving more than twice as much (46% to 19%) as his opponents.
Rafael Nadal: Percentage Of Breaking Serve
Tournament
15/15
0/30
30/0
Monte-Carlo
40% (37/92)
85% (39/46)
20% (10/49)
Barcelona
44% (38/87)
76% (29/38)
8% (2/26)
Madrid
35% (33/93)
70% (19/27)
4% (2/48)
Rome
35% (22/63)
62% (18/29)
15% (6/39)
Roland Garros
54% (67/123)
80% (57/71)
12% (8/68)
TOTAL
43% (197/458)
77% (162/211)
17% (28/162)
Nadal’s most eye-popping return stat is that he has broken serve at Roland Garros 54 per cent (67/123) of the time when his opponent has served at 15/15 in the past four years. The game is just beginning, but Nadal’s hidden edge to break serve is already in full swing.
Playing Nadal in any of these five events is a monumental challenge. He boasts a career win percentage of 92 per cent (317/343) during the European clay-court swing, and he has suffered just nine losses there in the past four years.
Giving Nadal an early lead in the game makes winning it nearly impossible. Playing boldly against Nadal early in the game to grab the initial score advantage certainly has its merits.
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
Austrian owns eight ATP Tour titles on clay
Dominic Thiem, the fourth seed at this week’s Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters, captured his first ATP Masters 1000 title at the BNP Paribas Open, becoming just the second Austrian to triumph at that level (also Thomas Muster). The only surprise was that his first Masters 1000 triumph did not come on clay.
Thiem is on pace to become one of the most successful clay-court players of this generation, if not in the Open Era. While Rafael Nadal has overshadowed the 25-year-old with his dominance on the surface throughout his career, winning 23 of his record 33 Masters 1000 trophies on clay, Thiem has quickly moved up the clay-court record books.
Among active players, Thiem has the fourth-highest winning percentage on clay according to the FedEx ATP Performance Zone, winning more than 74 per cent of his matches on the surface.
The only three players who have won on clay at a greater pace are the ‘Big Three’ of Nadal (92%), World No. 1 Novak Djokovic (79%) and Roger Federer (76%). Thiem is the only player to defeat Nadal on the red dirt over the past two seasons. The Spaniard holds a 50-2 record on clay since 2017.
Active Clay-Court Winning Percentage Leaders
Player (Open Era Rank) Clay-Court Titles Clay Record Clay Winning Percentage
Rafael Nadal (1) 57 415-36 92.0%
Novak Djokovic (6) 13 199-52 79.3%
Roger Federer (15) 11 214-68 75.9%
Dominic Thiem (16) 8 115-40 74.2%
Kei Nishikori (27) 2 84-34 71.2%
“It’s always my most important part of the season with my biggest highlight of the year, Roland Garros, coming up,” Thiem said of the European clay swing, beginning with Monte-Carlo. “There are so many points to play for and only great tournaments.”
Furthermore, only five active players own more clay-court titles than eight-time ATP Tour clay-court champion Thiem — Nadal (57), Djokovic (13), David Ferrer (13), Federer (11) and Tommy Robredo (11) — and they are all at least six years older than him. The Austrian is just three titles away from Federer, who won his first ATP Tour trophy on clay when Thiem was only eight years old.
Active Clay-Court Title Leaders
Player Clay-Court Titles
Rafael Nadal 57
Novak Djokovic 13
Nicolas Almagro* 13
David Ferrer 13
Roger Federer 11
Tommy Robredo 11
Dominic Thiem 8 Thiem’s performance in Indian Wells serves as a clear example of his hard-court prowess. Yet entering Monte-Carlo, the World No. 5 has won 18 per cent more of his clay-court matches than he has on hard courts. Last year’s Roland Garros finalist currently sits 16th in the Open Era in clay-court winning percentage, ahead of former World No. 1s Juan Carlos Ferrero, Andre Agassi and John McEnroe.
The three-time Nitto ATP Finals qualifier has made the final at the Mutua Madrid Open — one of three clay-court Masters 1000 tournaments — in each of the past two years. He will try to advance that far in Monte-Carlo for the first time. The fourth seed will play Slovak Martin Klizan or Argentine qualifier Federico Delbonis in the first round.
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
Nadal, Djokovic, Federer Know The Fine Margins In Tennis Better Than Anyone
Spoiler:
True of false: More than 20 per cent of the 2018 year-end Top 50 of the ATP Rankings failed to win more points than they lost?
It seems like an absurd question, as these players have all obtained a coveted end-of-season ATP Ranking from their dominant performances throughout the year, but the answer may surprise you…
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the year-end Top 50 from last season does indeed identify that 22 per cent (11 players) of the Top 50 lost more points than they won during the season.
Rafael Nadal, who finished the year No. 2, won the highest percentage of points played in 2018 at 55.4 per cent. Novak Djokovic finished the season No. 1, and was second best in percentage of points won in 2018, at 54.54 per cent. Roger Federer was ranked third, and was also third best in percentage of points won, at 54.36.
Those three players were a cut above the Tour with percentage of points won, with no other player winning greater than 53 per cent of their points for the season.
Leading 3 Players: Percentage Of Points Won in 2018
Rafael Nadal = 55.40% (4281/7728).
Novak Djokovic = 54.54% (5796/10628)
Roger Federer = 54.36% (5097/9377)
The highest ranked player who lost more points than he won for the season was No. 20 Marco Cecchinato, who won 49.4 per cent (3785/7662) of points played. Nikoloz Basilashvili, who was ranked one spot behind Cecchinato at No. 21, also lost more points than he won for the season, at 48.96 per cent (4245/8670).
When you break the Top 50 down into five even groups of 10, you uncover that players ranked between 41-50 collectively lost more points than they won.
Top 50: 2018 Season Broken Down Into Five Groups
Ranking Group
2018 Points Won
2018 Points Played
2018 Win Percentage
1-10
54424
103105
52.79%
11-20
46260
90239
51.26%
21-30
42648
83797
50.89%
31-40
37101
73685
50.35%
41-50
36832
74261
49.60%
TOTAL / AVERAGE
217265
425087
51.11%
The Top 50 as a whole win just one more point out of every 100 that they play, averaging 51.11 per cent won. The two closest groups were 21-30 and 31-40, which averaged just 0.54 percentage points difference over the course of the season.
What does a player ranked 31-40 need to do to jump into the Top 10? On average, win right around two more points out of every 100 they play for the season, moving from the 50 per cent range up into the 52 per cent range.
This analysis also has implications for the mental and emotional aspects of our sport. To be at the elite level of tennis means taking a 50-50 battle and improving it by just a couple of points out of every hundred.
For example, Kevin Anderson finished No. 6 last year, winning just 51.79 per cent (6151/11877) of points for the season. That means he lost 48.21 per cent of all points he played, yet still earned $4,917,350, went 47-19 and won two titles.
You better get used to losing a lot of points and not get too upset about it. Losing these small battles is an integral part of the winning in the big picture.
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
Roger, Rafa Lead The Way In These Serve & Return Scenarios
Spoiler:
Tennis has traditionally been a game of feel. How does the court feel? How heavy do the balls feel? How hot does the weather feel today? How do I feel going into the match?
So, it’s time to take a ‘feel’ test.
You have got to pick one of the following two scenarios that you feel would give yourself the best chance of winning the game. Do you feel more confident winning a game when you are serving with the score at 0/30, or is it better to be returning serve with the server trailing 0/15?
On one hand you are serving, but still four points from the game and your opponent is only two points away from breaking you. On the other hand, you are returning but you already have the first point in the bag and the server is still at love.
If you answered it feels better to be the returner at 0/15 rather than the server at 0/30, your feel for the better situation would be wrong.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 in the ATP Rankings winning games while serving at 0/30 and returning at 0/15, from the 2015 season up to the 2019 Internazionali BNL d’Italia, shows that serving at 0/30 is definitely the higher percentage option.
Current Top 10 Average: Winning The Game
Holding from 0/30 = 49.1% (1627/3316)
Breaking from 0/15 = 41.6% (4948/11891)
Difference = 7.5 percentage points
Holding from 0/30
It’s intriguing to learn that 0/30 is still a very even battle for the Top 10. In fact, five players posted a winning record, with Roger Federer leading the pack, holding 55.7 per cent (131/235) of the time. World No.1 Novak Djokovic came in second, beating big servers Kevin Anderson and Juan Martin del Potro.
Current Top 10: Holding from 0/30 since 2015
Position Player Games Won Total Games Win Percentage
1 Roger Federer 131 235 55.7%
2 Novak Djokovic 198 361 54.8%
3 Kevin Anderson 156 300 52.0%
4 Juan Martin del Potro 94 185 50.8%
5 Rafael Nadal 191 376 50.8%
6 Marin Cilic 177 369 48.0%
7 Kei Nishikori 189 395 47.8%
8 Dominic Thiem 229 480 47.7%
9 Alexander Zverev 183 428 42.8%
10 Stefanos Tsitsipas 79 187 42.2%
- TOTAL/AVERAGE 1627 3316 49.1%
Breaking Serve From 0/15
World No. 2 Rafael Nadal was the only Top 10 player to be above 50 per cent breaking serve after winning the first point of the game when returning. Djokovic featured in second place again, while Kei Nishikori was third best in breaking serve from 0/15.
Current Top 10: Breaking From 0/15 Since 2015
Position Player Games Won Total Games Win Percentage
1 Rafael Nadal 710 1409 50.4%
2 Novak Djokovic 724 1481 48.9%
3 Kei Nishikori 604 1349 44.8%
4 Roger Federer 506 1191 42.5%
5 Juan Martin del Potro 311 738 42.1%
6 Alexander Zverev 524 1286 40.7%
7 Dominic Thiem 601 1492 40.3%
8 Marin Cilic 470 1296 36.3%
9 Stefanos Tsitsipas 188 554 33.9%
10 Kevin Anderson 310 1095 28.3%
- TOTAL/AVERAGE 4948 11891 41.6%
The moral of the story is that breaking serve is still a very difficult proposition, even if you only have to win three points while the server has to win four. It also shows us that a 0/30 hole is not as deep as we think. In some cases, it’s not a hole at all.
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
Why Federer Should Not Be Counted Out At Roland Garros
Spoiler:
Roger Federer may be competing at Roland Garros for the first time since 2015, and he returned to the surface earlier this month for the first time since 2016 Rome. But don’t discount the Swiss on the Parisian clay, as the 101-time tour-level titlist is no stranger to success on the red dirt.
According to the FedEx ATP Performance Zone, Federer has been one of this era’s clay-court leaders in all key categories, despite it being his least successful surface.
Federer has won 76 per cent of his matches on clay, third-best among active players. The only men who have done better are Rafael Nadal (91.7%) and Novak Djokovic (79.5%). Federer’s results put him in 15th place in the Open Era, and only 1.3 percentage points separate him from the Top 10.
Best Clay-Court Winning Percentage (Active Players)
Player Record Winning Percentage
1. Rafael Nadal 429-39 91.7%
2. Novak Djokovic 209-54 79.5%
3. Roger Federer 218-69 76%
4. Dominic Thiem 124-43 74.3%
5. Juan Martin del Potro 81-34 70.4%
The 37-year-old has won 218 tour-level matches on clay, fourth-best among active players. He did not play on the surface for two full seasons, in 2017-18. Nadal (429), Tommy Robredo (261, 66.6%) and Fernando Verdasco (227, 61.9%) are the only players still competing who own more victories than the Swiss star.
And then there is the matter of titles. Federer, the 2009 Roland Garros champion, is one of just four active players who has lifted the Coupe des Mousquetaires. Nadal has done so 11 times, while Federer, Djokovic and former World No. 3 Stan Wawrinka have accomplished the feat once each. Federer has won 11 tour-level titles on clay overall, tied for third among active players with Robredo, trailing Nadal (58) and Djokovic (14).
Federer might not have played on clay for a substantial period of time, but he has already shown his clay-court prowess in the two tournaments he has played on the surface this year. The Swiss held two match points against clay stalwart Dominic Thiem in the Mutua Madrid Open quarter-finals before ultimately falling short, and he made the last eight at the Internazionali BNL d’Italia before withdrawing due to injury.
“I felt I actually came back fairly quickly. Especially now with having played Madrid, I think the decision-making also came back quite naturally,” Federer said before the Internazionali BNL d’Italia. “I think it always goes back to the fact that I did grow up on this surface. Sliding is something I actually enjoy doing. The problem is, the more time I spend on clay, maybe sometimes the more excited I get playing on the surface, I start sliding around too much instead of actually moving sometimes like on the hard courts and only sliding when really required.
“I must say also in practice in Switzerland I felt good right away. Very happy where I'm at, to be quite honest. I was a bit surprised that it went as easy as it did.”
Did You Know?
Federer reached at least the quarter-finals at Roland Garros in nine consecutive appearances from 2005-13. The Swiss advanced to the final four straight times (2006-09) and made a fifth championship match in Paris in 2011.
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
The Surprising Stat About Nadal's Roland Garros Domination
Spoiler:
Why don’t we practise exactly what happens in a match?
Statistics in tennis were first recorded in 1991, and have only in the past few years become more accepted and integrated into our sport. We still obsess about consistency, even though a stats sheet undeniably shows shorter rallies greatly outnumber longer ones, and have more weight in determining who wins the match.
What if we reversed the traditional relationship between the practice court and match court?
Typically, we focus on shot tolerance, patience and persistence on the practice court, attempting to create a winning advantage in long rallies. But is that really how the match court is organised? Even for Rafael Nadal on clay?
No, it’s not. Not even close.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of rally length at Roland Garros from 2013-2019 clearly identifies that the most abundant rally lengths have far few touches of the ball than we realise. The data set includes 571 matches totaling 111,041 points.
If you were to let match statistics be the driving force of how you organise the practice court, it would look very different than the current landscape. The following breakdown identifies the five most common rally lengths, which are also broken down into a winner or an error at the end of the point.
1. One-Shot Rally Ending In An Error = 19.4%
The No. 1 way a point ends at Roland Garros – by a country mile – is a return error. It is exactly double the next most abundant rally length.
The greatest irony in our sport is that the return of serve is the least-practised shot in our sport, yet it is the most common rally length.
Practice Court Focus: Focus on returning deep down the middle of the court. Take the sidelines out of play, which also brings the ball back to the middle of the court. Be more defensive vs. first serves and more aggressive against second serves.
2. Two-Shot Rally Ending In An Error = 9.7%
The serve went in, the return came back, but the server missed the next shot. This specific Serve +1 groundstroke is pressured by both power from the return and a lack of time to get prepared.
Practice Court Focus: Hit a serve and have your coach feed the return out of the hand. Feed it deep and hard right down the middle of the court. The goal is not to miss. Even hitting a slower defensive shot right back down the middle of the court works just fine.
3. Three-Shot Rally Ending In An Error = 9.5%
This specific shot is called Return +1. What typically happens here is the server made a first serve, received a shorter ball back and attacked with a Serve +1 forehand. Most times, the server is going to initially target the returner’s backhand on the run.
Practice Court Focus: Run this identical pattern. Hit a return and then have the coach feed the ball hard and wide to the backhand corner. Defence goes crosscourt, so make the ball back cross with either a slice backhand or a blocking backhand.
4. Three-Shot Rally Ending In A Winner = 6.9%
This is a classic Serve +1 forehand following behind a powerful first serve.
Practice Court Focus: Put a target out in a corner of the service box and aim at it. Have the return of serve fed back short, which will be the typical result. The returner will be thinking the Serve +1 forehand is going to the backhand, so definitely mix in going for a winner wide to the forehand as well.
5. Four-Shot Rally Ending In An Error = 6.1%
This is the third shot of the rally for the server.
Practice Court Focus: Hit a serve, then a Serve +1 groundstroke. The balancing act for the next shot is to try and maintain control of the point without overhitting. Focus more on depth and spin instead of power and direction. Don’t beat yourself with this building shot.
Summary
The common rally lengths in our sport are always the shorter ones, even on clay. When is the first time a double-digit rally shows up? It’s a 10-shot rally ending in an error. It’s the 19th most common way a point ends, occurring just 1.3 per cent of the time.
Through Nadal’s first four matches at Roland Garros this year to the quarter-finals, the most abundant rally length he has played is a one-shot rally, which occurred 21.4 per cent (139/651) of the time. The most abundant double-digit rally was 10 shots, but there were only 13 of them, occurring just two per cent of the time.
Let the match court be the guiding light for your practice court.
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
Read & Watch: Nadal, Federer, Djokovic: The Second-Serve Titans
Spoiler:
Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers shows how the Big 3 lead the way
Any time you find Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic at the top of a specific statistics list, it will grab your attention.
These three icons of our sport are not the most powerful servers on Tour, but their wealth of experience and strategic prowess with second serves is once again shining bright in 2019.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of second-serve points won so far this season sees Rafael Nadal leading the Tour coming into Roland Garros. The Spaniard has won 61.26 per cent (400/653) of second-serve points from 30 matches.
Nadal has amazingly featured in the Top 10 in this category for the past 15 seasons, and his current win percentage is greater than any of his previous years. Nadal has impressively finished first in this category four times.
Roger Federer narrowly trails Nadal in this category so far in 2019, winning 61.04 per cent (398/652) from 25 matches coming into Roland Garros. Federer has impressively finished first seven times (2014, 2012, 2011, 2007, 2006, 2005, 2004).
It should come as no surprise that either Nadal, Federer and Djokovic have topped this list for the past nine years, dating back to 2009 when Andy Roddick led the category. In third place so far in 2019 is John Isner, who has won 59.22 per cent (257/434) of his second-serve points from 22 matches.
Djokovic currently sits in fourth place, winning 58.09 per cent (413/711) from 28 matches. Djokovic has previously finished first in this category three times: 2016, 2015 and 2013.
Rounding out the top five in 2019 is German Philipp Kohlschreiber, who has won 57.51 per cent (398/692) of second-serve points from 26 matches.
When the inevitable discussion begins about how Nadal, Federer and Djokovic separate themselves from the pack and create a stranglehold on Big Titles, second-serve performance deserves to be right at the top of the list.
“I doubt about myself, I think the doubts are good in life. The people who don’t have doubts I think only two things: arrogance or not intelligence.”- Rafa Nadal
"There are other tournaments in which I would like to win. However, in the end, trophies are just pieces of metal. The main thing that I took from tennis is love. She will remain with me forever, and I am sincerely grateful for this “ - David Ferrer
