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nfosys ATP Beyond The Numbers explains how an improved return game was the key to Milos Raonic's career year
In 2015, Milos Raonic lost serve only 39 times in 49 matches. Not enough.
In 2016, the 6’5” Canadian was broken 86 times in 69 matches. Now we are talking.
Raonic ended 2015 ranked 14 in the world in the Emirates ATP Rankings, and just completed the 2016 season with his career best ranking of No. 3. On the surface, getting broken more than twice as much in 2016 than 2015 seems counter-intuitive to such dramatic improvement. It’s not.
In fact, basically everything from a serving standpoint slightly declined in 2016 compared to 2015 for Raonic, but to focus only on his service games would be the same as not being able to see the forest for the trees.
What’s the point of being an exceptional server, if you can’t break enough to win? Raonic greatly improved his return game this season, evolving from a player too reliant on serving, to creating a more potent, balanced attack. He got the mix right.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Raonic’s ascension uncovers a player who got a little worse at serving and whole lot better overall as a player, and hey presto - No. 3 in the world.
Raonic Serving
Across the board, the numbers were not as impressive in 2016 as 2015. What we must keep in mind is that Raonic went from peerless metrics to still very solid numbers compared to the rest of the tour.

Raonic Returning
This is the beating heart of Raonic’s improvement.
In 2015, Raonic broke 77 times in 629 return games, which equals once every 8.2 service games. In 2016, he blew the doors off those numbers, breaking 164 times in 893 return games, breaking once every 5.5 games.
Instead of putting all his eggs in the serve basket, Raonic become more complete, bolstered the return side of the equation, and increased his prize money from $1.4M in 2015 to $4.6M this season.

At the 2016 Barclays ATP World Tour Finals, Raonic held a match point against eventual champion Andy Murray in the semi-finals, losing 5-7, 7-6(5), 7-6(9). In an ominous warning to opponents in the upcoming season, Raonic won the longer points of 9+ shots 16-14 against the Brit. Who would have thought…
In 2016, Raonic rounded out his game, improved his returns, believed in his backhand, and pressed a little less from the baseline at the start of the point. He now has all the ingredients to impose his will all over the court, and make his own legitimate run at World No. 1 in 2017.
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It’s one thing to position yourself to win a tennis match. It’s quite another to actually do it.
Gael Monfils enjoyed his best season on tour in 2016, ending the year at No. 7 in the Emirates ATP Rankings after reaching a career-high of No. 6 last month. In 2015, he finished the season at No. 24, and on the surface, not a lot of his metrics changed during the 12-month period. The difference was Monfils was far more efficient at finishing the job he started when returning.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Monfils’ 44-17 season this year showed that when returning and getting to within one point of breaking at 0/40, 15/40 and 30/40, his conversion rate sky-rocketed compared to last year and at any other time during his 14-year career.
The following comparison to the 2015 season identifies that the number of return games Monfils played was almost identical, but the break points created and converted increased dramatically.
Return Games Played
2015 = 654
2016 = 660
Break Points Converted (2005-2015 Average = 40.8%)
2015 = 40.6% (145/359)
2016 = 45.4% (189/416)
It’s a significant success to move the needle one or two percentage points with break-point conversion, but the flamboyant Frenchman improved almost five percentage points, converting 44 more break points (189 to 145) in 2016 than in 2015.

The following table shows the improvement Monfils made in breaking serve from a specific point score. When the door opened this year, he walked through it.
Monfils' Percentage Chance of Breaking Serve by Point Score

Monfils converted 16 more break points against first serves in 2016 than in 2015, and similarly converted 28 more break points against second serves, fueling his best season on tour.
Break Points Converted When Receiving First Serves
2015 = 71
2016 = 87
Break Points Converted Receiving Second Serves
2015 = 74
2016 = 102
Monfils finished the 2016 season impressively ranked third on tour in break points converted, but he was the runaway leader on clay courts. He converted a mind-blowing 53.8 per cent of his break points on clay. As a comparison, Rafael Nadal is the career leader at converting break points on clay, at 48.8 per cent.
With the finish line of breaking serve just one point away this season, Monfils crossed it better than he ever has.

Opportunity is multiplied the more you are exposed to it.
In the 2015 season, Alexander Zverev played just 5,166 points on tour. That more than doubled to 11,156 this season, creating opportunities from St. Petersburg, Russia, where he won his first ATP World Tour title, to Halle and Nice, where he reached the final.
More than double the amount of points played naturally filtered down to more than double the amount of points won, rising from 2,507 in 2015 to 5,683. His season-ending position in the Emirates ATP Rankings skyrocketed from 85 in 2015 to 24 in 2016, with a season-high of 20 in October 2016.
Double the points played. Double the points won, and more than double the match time - 3,509 minutes in 2015 to 7,688 minutes in 2016. But that does not tell the whole story…
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis uncovered that Zverev actually lost more points than he won in securing his Top 100 ranking in 2015, winning just 48.5 per cent of points played. This year, storming into the Top 25 in the world, that percentage was bumped up only to 50.9 per cent.
He won just 2.4 percentage points more in 2015 than 2016 - just two and a half more points out of every hundred - to become one of the hottest players on tour.
Zverev, 19, from Hamburg, Germany, is 6,6”, and you would naturally assume the serving side of equation is his strong suite, but that’s not necessarily the case. In 2016, Zverev finished 38th best in the ATP Stats LEADERBOARD Serve Leaders category, but a much higher 18th in the Return Leaders.
Zverev won just four matches on tour in 2014, 14 in 2015, and 44 in 2016. His progression points to a 50+ wins season in 2017, and a coveted spot somewhere in the Top 10 of the Emirates ATP Rankings.

The four players with the most impressive serve statistics since records were first kept in 1991 are Ivo Karlovic, John Isner, Milos Raonic and Andy Roddick.
That list makes total sense. What you may not realize is who is fifth.
It’s Nick Kyrgios.
Kyrgios ended 2016 with his career best Emirates ATP Ranking at No. 13, winning three ATP World Tour titles in Marseille, Atlanta and Tokyo, going 39-15 on the season.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the enigmatic 21-year-old Australian reveals he is already establishing himself as one of the best servers in the history of our sport.
Kyrgios is ranked fifth in SERVE LEADERS on the ATP Serve Stats LEADERBOARDS, which is calculated using the percentages of the following six categories.
ATP Serve Stats LEADERBOARDS components
1st serve percentage
1st serve points won
2nd serve points won
Service games won
Add average aces/match
Subtract average double faults
The following table shows Kyrgios’ performance and ranking in the 2016 season in all six serve LEADERBOARD categories.

The beauty of the serve LEADERBOARDS is that it lets you compare identical metrics over different seasons, providing real numbers to some interesting questions. For example, did Kyrgios put up better numbers in 2016 than Pete Sampras put up in his prime? Once again, the answer will surprise you.
From 1993 to 1998, Sampras finished No. 1 in the world in the Infosys Year-end No. 1 LEADERBOARD. Only one of those years, in 1997, did he put up a higher season average than Kyrgios did this season.

Overall, Kyrgios is fifth best on the Infosys Career Serving LEADERBOARD, ahead of some players that are widely renowned for their prowess serving. The following table compares the young Australian with some of the best server’s our sport has ever seen.

Saving Break Points
In winning three titles in 2016, Kyrgios greatly impressed with the quantity of break points he saved in Tokyo and Atlanta, and how few break points he faced in winning Marseille. Overall, opponents only converted four of 35 (11 per cent) of break points they generated in the three events combined, which is well below the 31 per cent season average.
Kyrgios: 3 ATP World Tour Titles in 2016
Marseille: saved 4/4 break points.
Atlanta: saved 10/12 break points.
Tokyo: saved 17/19 break points.
Kyrgios is a serving machine. The returning side of the equation is where the focus needs to be for 2017. He is ranked 53rd on the Infosys Return Leaders LEADERBOARD, including being just 62nd best on tour in return points won against 1st serves.
His backhand return technique, in particular, is exemplary, with an extremely efficient, short blocking motion. There is no reason returning won’t develop into a statistical strength as well, and once it does, a future No. 1 ranking beckons.

The ability to quickly adjust to different surfaces and conditions is a necessity on the 64-tournament circuit. Here's a look at some of the best performers in 2016 by surface this year:
Hard Courts (minimum 10 matches)
Andy Murray won six of his nine titles on hard courts in 2016, contesting eight finals on the surface (6-2). Juan Martin del Potro, who rose from No. 1041 at the start of the year to No. 38 in the Emirates ATP Rankings, won .750 of his 2016 matches on hard courts, including a win over Andy Murray in the Davis Cup semi-finals.

Novak Djokovic and Murray competed in three clay-court finals in 2016 - the Mutua Madrid Open, Internazionali BNL d'Italia and at Roland Garros. King of Clay Rafael Nadal enjoyed a resurgence with his ninth Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters and ninth Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell crown to equal Guillermo Vilas' record of 49 red dirt trophies.

Grass Courts (minimum 5 matches)
Murray once again dominated on mown lawns by picking up a record fifth Aegon Championships crown prior to triumphing again at Wimbledon. Milos Raonic, who lost to Murray in The Queen's Club final, reached his first Grand Slam title match at SW19. Nicolas Mahut added to his 2013 and 2015 titles at the Ricoh Open in 's-Hertogenbosch.

Outdoors (minimum 10 matches)
Five of Djokovic's seven titles in 2016 came outdoors, including a 14-match winning streak at the start of the season. Murray continued to improve his hard-court tally year-on-year (2014 - 45-16; 2015 - 58-10). Gael Monfils, the newest member of the Top 10, enjoyed a career-best year with one hard-court trophy at the Citi Open in Washington, DC.

Indoors (minimum 10 matches)
Murray completed 2016 with a 15-match indoor winning streak that helped him become year-end No. 1 in the Emirates ATP Rankings, including three titles at the Erste Bank Open 500, the BNP Paribas Masters and the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals. Del Potro was victorious indoors at the If Stockholm Open in a comeback year from injury.

You are serving, down break point.
The initial element of a successful hold strategy is to make your first serve. You would think this would come naturally for the Top 20 players in the Emirates ATP Rankings – an innate ability to elevate their games in moments of crisis.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of 13,295 break points against Top 20 players in both the 2015 and 2016 seasons actually showed just the opposite, with this elite group struggling like players at all levels of the game to find new heights when they need them the most.
Only four of the Top 20 in 2016 made more first serves down break point than they did on average during the season, which was even fewer than the seven who did in 2015. The standout this season was Rafael Nadal, who not only boasted the highest overall first-serve percentage of the Top 20 at 70 per cent, but he also doubled down to raise it to all the way to 79 per cent when facing break point.
First serves on break points matter greatly. Nadal has saved substantially more break points behind his first serve than his second serve during the past two seasons.
2016 Nadal Break Points Saved
First Serve = 69 per cent (162/236)
Second Serve = 52 per cent (32/61)
2015 Nadal Break Points Saved
First Serve = 68 per cent (202/298)
Second Serve = 49 per cent (62/127)
The four Top 20 players in 2016 who made a higher percentage of first serves on break point than their season average:


Nadal and Kei Nishikori were the only two players to be ranked in the Top 20 in the 2015 and 2016 seasons and also make more first serves down break point than their season average. This season, Roberto Bautista Agut and Richard Gasquet both improved one percentage point in their first-serve average on break point.

David Goffin and Stan Wawrinka were the standout performers in 2015, with Goffin posting an impressive eight percentage point jump, from 55 per cent to 63 per cent. Nadal and Kevin Anderson bumped up two percentage points, while Novak Djokovic, Nishikori and Feliciano Lopez all improved one percentage point.
Overall in 2016, the Top 20 averaged making 62 per cent of their first serves, but just 61 percent when down break point. The 2015 season also saw a similar one per cent drop, from 61 per cent to 60 per cent. In both 2015 and 2016, the Top 20 made more first serves facing break point in the deuce court than in the ad court.
2016 Season
Deuce Court: 64 per cent
Ad Court: 60 per cent
2015 Season
Deuce Court: 61 per cent
Ad Court: 59 per cent
This kind of analysis helps players from Melbourne to Moscow to Madrid understand the hidden metrics that underpin the most important moments in a match.

The scoring system in tennis produces a powerful paradox where you can improve on a successful season even by winning fewer points per match on average.
Players want to win every point, but only a slim majority is needed for victory. The stats sheets suggest that just a handful of points make a real difference in a match.
Take for example Grigor Dimitrov’s resurgence this season.
The 25-year-old Bulgarian had his second best year on the ATP World Tour, going 39-27 to improve his year-end Emirates ATP Ranking from No. 28 in 2015, to No. 17 in 2016. Surely, winning more points per match propelled this jump in the rankings. The answer? Yes and no.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Dimitrov’s return to the Top 20 by 2016’s end makes you do a double-take when you look at his key metrics. The following table compares his 2015 and 2016 seasons, which shows improvement in all areas except average points won:
Season Analytics 2015 2016
Year-End Ranking 28 17
Matches Won/Lost 33-22 39-26
Prize Money $968,791 $1,617,502
Points Won 4560 5600
Average Points Won 51.6 per cent 51.2 per cent
These numbers produce three main take-aways for players at all levels of the game on how to improve their own performance:
1. Razor-Thin Margins
In 2016, Dimitrov tipped a 50-50 battle with his opponents a mere 1.2 percentage points in his favor. When you look at the flip side of this dynamic, he averaged losing 49 of every 100 points in regaining a coveted spot in the Top 20. An analysis of the ATP Stats LEADERBOARDS shows the Bulgarian clinching those key points in his return game.

Total Service Points Won
2015 = 66.3 per cent
2016 = 65.2 per cent
Total Return Points Won
2015 = 37.1 per cent
2016 = 37.7 per cent
2. All Points Do Not Weigh The Same
Saving break points was a key metric for the Bulgarian in adding six more matches to his win column in 2016 over 2015. Making more first serves in the Ad court on break point, where they occur at about a 3:1 ratio to the Deuce court, was a significant contributor.
1st Serve Percentage Down Break Point 2015 2016
Deuce Court 67.0 per cent (55/82) 64.9 per cent (61/94)
Ad Court 58.7 per cent (155/264) 63.7 per cent (193/303)
Overall 60.1 per cent (210/346) 64.0 per cent (254/397)
3. Head vs Heart
Your heart says try to win every point you play, so your head needs to understand the reality of a stats sheet, which says the opposite. We play a game of percentages, not perfection. Losing is going to happen a lot, and staying positive against the natural forces of adversity and disappointment is as important as any dynamic in a match.

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers shows how Nishikori improved his game in 2016 and how he can continue to improve in 2017
A traditional coaching drill on practice courts all over the world is to play points with just one serve. It creates instant pressure as players develop their prowess hitting second serves, and also attacking them at will on the return. Coaches may as well name it the “Kei Nishikori Drill”.
Nishikori won more matches in 2016 than in any other year of his illustrious career, going 58-21 and finishing No. 5 in the Emirates ATP Rankings. Dominating the second-serve landscape was his specialty.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the Japanese star uncovered just how much his game elevated when points started with second serves instead of first serves.
Nishikori won 72 per cent of his first-serve points in 2016, only 43rd best on the ATP World Tour. But when it came to second-serve points, Nishikori skyrocketed all the way to seventh best by winning 55.3 per cent of the points that started with his second serve.

The same dynamic unfolded on the returning side as well. The ATP Stats LEADERBOARDS, powered by the Infosys Information Platform, showed Nishikori was 17th best when returning first serves by winning 30.6 per cent of those points. But he leapt all the way to fifth best on the ATP World Tour by winning 54.3 per cent of his second-serve return points.
Kei Nishikori 2016 Season
Statistic Winning Percentage Ranking
First-Serve Points Won 72.1 43rd
Second-Serve Points Won 55.3 Seventh
First-Serve Return Points Won 30.6 17th
Second-Serve Return Points Won 54.3 Fifth
When serving and facing break point, Nishikori won about 70 per cent of his first-serve points and an extremely high 58.1 per cent (93/160) of his second-serve points. As a comparison on second serves, Nishikori’s metrics were superior to World No. 1 Andy Murray, who saved 55.4 per cent (93/168), and World No. 2 Novak Djokovic, who saved 56.4 per cent (71/126).
When returning serve on break points, Nishikori dominated, winning 58.1 per cent of break points against second serves, which was once again a leading metric compared to his peers in the Top 10.
The one area Nishikori can tidy up in the coming season is not double faulting on break points. In 2016 he double faulted 16 times on break points – up from only seven times in 2015.
The battleground surrounding second serves, both serving and returning, weighs heavier to the outcome of a match and a career than you may think. It would be a wise decision for players at all levels of the game in 2017 to work a little more of the “Kei Nishikori Drill” into their regimen.

Time is one of the most precious commodities a tennis player has to manage. Time on court is invaluable, but then again, so is limiting that time to avoid injuries and stay fresh. The big picture clearly dictates that improvement is predicated on playing more matches, which means more time on court in the cauldron of competition.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the 2016 season showed Andy Murray’s ascension to the No. 1 Emirates ATP Ranking was built on spending substantially more time on court than anyone else in the Top 10.
Murray spent 162 hours on court in 2016, which was up from 151 hours in 2015. Murray’s average set time in 2015 was 44 minutes, and that rose to 46 minutes last year as he climbed to take the No. 1 ranking.
Time Spent On Court During The 2016 Season
No. Player Hours On Court Average Set Time In Minutes
1 Andy Murray 162 46
2 Novak Djokovic 130 44
3 Milos Raonic 127 42
4 Stan Wawrinka 121 42
5 Kei Nishikori 129 42
6 Gael Monfils 90 39
7 Marin Cilic 109 43
8 Dominic Thiem 136 40
9 Rafael Nadal 89 47
10 Tomas Berdych 107 43
-- AVERAGE 120 43
It’s interesting to note that there is no link between hours on court and ranking spots, as eighth-ranked Dominic Thiem spent the second most amount of time on court of the Top 10 at 136 hours. Rafael Nadal spent the least amount of time on court of the Top 10 in 2016 at just 89 hours.

He played only 53 matches as injury took him away from the tour. Nadal completed a full workload in 2015, spending 152 hours on court.
Even though the Spaniard racked up the least amount of match hours in 2016, his average set time was the longest, at 47 minutes. Murray was next highest at 46 minutes, with Gael Monfils being the quickest per set at 39 minutes.
The Top 10 average of 120 hours on court for the season is a valuable number for players to know and prepare for with their off-court training regimens. The average time per set is more of a reflection of playing styles and shot tolerance.
As players rise up the Emirates ATP Rankings to the coveted Top 10, they now have a clearer understanding of the on-court workload that is required, and the off-court preparation that must fuel it.

Fifteen-all is a leaking ship. The boat is still afloat, still steaming along in the right direction, but it is definitely taking on a little water that the server probably does not know about.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the Top 10 in the Emirates ATP Rankings shows a modest decline in the win percentage for the server from the start of the game at love-all to two points later at 15/15.
Top 10 Average Win Percentage
0/0 = 85%
15/15 = 82%
The Top 10 average a three percentage-point drop from 0/0 to 15/15, as the finish line for the game moves from four points away, to just three points away.
Top 10 Hold Percentage At 0/0 And 15/15 During The 2016 Season
No. Player 0/0 15/15 Difference
1 Andy Murray 85% 84% -1
2 Novak Djokovic 86% 83% -3
3 Milos Raonic 91% 88% -3
4 Stan Wawrinka 86% 82% -4
5 Kei Nishikori 83% 79% -4
6 Gael Monfils 83% 80% -3
7 Marin Cilic 87% 84% -3
8 Dominic Thiem 83% 79% -4
9 Rafael Nadal 81% 79% -2
10 Tomas Berdych 85% 86% +1
- AVERAGE 85% 82% -3
The three players in the Top 10 who had the biggest winning percentage drop between 0/0 and 15/15 were Stan Wawrinka, Kei Nishikori and Dominic Thiem, all of whom saw their winning percentage fall four percentage points. There were four players right at the average decline of three percentage points, including Novak Djokovic, Milos Raonic, Gael Monfils and Marin Cilic.
Rafael Nadal's winning percentage dropped only two percentage points, while World No. 1 Andy Murray dropped only one percentage point. The outlier in the Top 10 was Tomas Berdych, who actually rose one percentage point, from 85 per cent to 86 per cent. In 2015, Berdych dropped like the rest of the Top 10, but it was only one percentage point, from 85 per cent to 84 per cent.
The key dynamic here is the closer proximity to the finish line. It’s still the same server, and the score is still even, but the end of the game has moved 25 per cent closer (from four points to three points), and that slightly favours the returner.

Would you rather be down 0/30 or 30/40 when serving? Would you rather be two points away from losing serve while trailing your opponent by two points, or just a single point away from being broken but also just one point away from getting back to even?
The feel and position of these two challenging point scores for the server seem different on the surface, but statistically, they are basically one in the same. An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the Top 10 in the Emirates ATP Rankings during the 2016 season uncovers the hidden parallels of 0/30 and 30/40 at the elite level of our sport.
Top 10 2016 Season – Percentage Chance of Holding Serve
0/30 = 49.7%
30/40 = 51%
Holding serve when trailing 0/30 or 30/40 is basically a 50-50 proposition for the Top 10. Holding from 30/40 is a slightly higher possibility, at 51 per cent, while holding from 0/30 slightly trails, at 49.7 per cent.
Top 10 2016 Season
No. Player Holding From 0/30 Holding From 30/40
1 Andy Murray 45.5% 50.9%
2 Novak Djokovic 53.9% 53.8%
3 Milos Raonic 51.4% 52.9%
4 Stan Wawrinka 61.4% 57.1%
5 Kei Nishikori 50.5% 52.8%
6 Marin Cilic 47.9% 50.9%
7 Gael Monfils 51.2% 47.9%
8 Dominic Thiem 44.9% 44.5%
9 Rafael Nadal 47.8% 45.4%
10 Tomas Berdych 42.9% 53.2%
Performance at both point scores varied considerably in the Top 10, with World No. 4 Stan Wawrinka clearly dominating in 2016 when these specific scorelines arrived in his service games.
From 0/30, Wawrinka held 61.4 per cent of the time, which was 7.5 percentage points clear of second-placed Novak Djokovic, at 53.9 per cent. The only other players to be above 50 per cent holding from 0/30 were Milos Raonic, Gael Monfils and Kei Nishikori.
Interestingly, some players held at almost identical percentages from both scorelines, while performance greatly varied from others. Tomas Berdych’s hold percentage jumped dramatically, from 42.9 per cent at 0/30 to 53.2 percent at 30/40. World No. 1 Andy Murray also preferred the 30/40 scoreline, jumping 5.4 percentage points, while Marin Cilic similarly rose three percentage points from 0/30 to 30/40.
And then there were others, such as Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem, who were the opposite. They performed better at 0/30 than 30/40.
Top 10 2016 Season – Point Score Totals
Even though the hold percentages were basically even, the Top 10 had to navigate a 30/40 scoreline substantially more often than 0/30.
0/30 = 895 times (41%)
30/40 = 1302 times (59%)
Understanding the percentages of holding serve from specific scorelines in a game can highlight where a player excels, both physically and mentally, and where energy needs to be focused in order to improve.

The Top 20 players in the world average a losing record holding serve from the precarious scoreline of 0/30.
The game is potentially half over, and for the majority at this elite level, their chances of holding serve have already dropped below 50 per cent. An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the Top 20 from the 2016 season at 0/30, and the two nearby scorelines of 15/30 and 0/40, provide a fresh perspective of just how tough it is to hold serve once you fall behind by two points on the scoreboard.
The Top 20 average holding serve 49 per cent of the time from 0/30. American John Isner leads the field, holding a mind-blowing 70 per cent of the time. Others ahead of the pack include Ivo Karlovic (66 per cent), Stan Wawrinka (61 per cent) and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (56 per cent).
The volatility of 0/30 sees a massive 46 percentage-point gap between Isner’s leading 70 per cent, and David Goffin, who managed to win only 34 per cent of his service games when falling behind 0/30.
The Best Among The Top 20 In 2016
Holding Serve From 0/30 Holding Serve From 15/30 Holding Serve From 0/40
John Isner 70% John Isner 80% Gael Monfils 43%
Ivo Karlovic 66% Ivo Karlovic 76% John Isner 38%
Stan Wawrinka 61% Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 71% Stan Wawrinka 35%
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 56% Milos Raonic 70% Kei Nishikori 28%
If the Top 20 won the 0/30 point, their chances of holding serve jumped sharply from 49 per cent to 64 per cent – a significant 15 percentage-point leap that now has every player in the Top 20 statistically favored to hold serve.
World No. 1 Andy Murray was slightly above the Top 20 average from 15/30, holding 65 per cent of the time, as was No. 2 Novak Djokovic (66 per cent), No. 3 Milos Raonic (70 per cent) and No. 4 Stan Wawrinka (68 per cent).
If the Top 20 lost the 0/30 point to drop to 0/40, their win percentage of holding serve plummeted down to 22 per cent. No Top 20 players won more games than they lost from this deep hole.
The best performer of the Top 20 holding serve from 0/40 in 2016 was Gael Monfils, who held 12 of 28 times for a commanding 43 per cent average. Kei Nishikori was another stand-out from 0/40, holding 28 per cent of the time, as was Nick Kyrgios at 25 per cent.
It is interesting to see the sizable fluctuations in players’ fortunes of holding serve from either 15/30 or 0/40. Both Murray and Karlovic had a sizable 55 percentage-point difference of holding between the two scorelines, with Tomas Berdych close at 51 percentage points. The smallest gap by far was Monfils, at only 13 percentage points – 56 per cent at 15/30 to 43 per cent at 0/40.
Tennis is a game of feel and touch, but it’s also a game of patterns and percentages, and the more we know about these crucial scorelines, the easier it will be to successfully navigate them in the future.

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers investigates Mischa Zverev's success with the old tactic
Serve and volley is relevant again, and Mischa Zverev is a big reason why.
Zverev shocked the tennis world at the Australian Open in January by defeating World No. 1 Andy Murray 7-5, 5-7, 6-2, 6-4 in the Round of 16. The German served and volleyed 119 times against the Scot to single-handedly resurrect one of our sport’s most maligned strategies.
The 29-year-old Zverev achieved a career-high Emirates ATP Ranking of No. 30 at the end of February, capping off one of the most inspiring comebacks from injury our sport has seen.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Zverev’s resurgence points back to the 2016 Asian Swing as the period when his game caught fire.
Zverev had won only four ATP World Tour main draw matches during the first eight months of 2016, but he would go on to win eight in the final six weeks of the season.
Shanghai Rolex Masters quarter-finals
Swiss Indoors Basel semi-finals
Shenzhen Open quarter-finals
The ATP Stats LEADERBOARDS, powered by the Infosys Information Platform, show that Zverev has actually been performing better on the returning side than on the serving side during the past 12 months.
His ATP Stats LEADERBOARDS Return Rating has him 22nd best on tour, whereas his ATP Stats LEADERBOARDS Serve Rating puts him at 29th best. Zverev is a commendable 15th in break points converted, at 42.6 per cent during the past year.
See Who's Pushing Zverev In The ATP Stats LEADERBOARDS
The German has a 6-7 record in 2017. He has won 63 per cent (686/1090) of his total serve points and 37 per cent (410/1116) of his return points. As a comparison, his return numbers are slightly higher than World No. 4 Milos Raonic, who is at 36 per cent.
Zverev’s blocking return game is very solid, but it’s his serve-and-volley strategy that is turning heads, proving it is a viable counter-strategy against the current crop of baseliners at the pinnacle of our sport.
In defeating Murray in Melbourne, Zverev served and volleyed on a staggering 88 per cent (119/135) of his service points, winning 59 per cent of them. Zverev won only 48 per cent (34/71) from the baseline, so it’s clear to see coming forward trumped staying back.
Through five matches at the Australian Open, Zverev played more serve-and-volley points than baseline points – something unheard of in today’s game. Serve-and-volley points won accounted for a staggering 44 per cent of Zverev’s total points won through five matches.
Mischa Zverev – 2017 Australian Open Points Won
Serve and Volley = 63% (289/459)
Baseline = 49% (169/348)
There is much to celebrate in the Zverev household these days, as Mischa’s 19-year-old younger brother, Alexander Zverev, posted a career high ranking of No. 18 just last month, and currently sits at No. 20.

Roger’s backhand return. It used to get picked on. It used to misfire and shank and generally underperform relative to the genius of the rest of his arsenal.
And now, all of a sudden, it’s a beast. The most under-rated part of Roger Federer’s game throughout his illustrious career is now the main attraction.
“I am just able to step into the court much easier than I ever have,” Federer said in a post-match interview at the BNP Paribas Open last week, after defeating Rafael Nadal 6-2, 6-3 in the fourth round. “I think by coming over my backhand on the return from the get-go in the point, I can then dominate points from the start.”
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Federer’s 2017 resurgence clearly pinpoints his return game has improved, especially on break points.
Federer is ranked fifth-best in career service games won on the ATP Stats LEADERBOARDS, powered by the Infosys Information Platform, but just 41st in return games won. He drops all the way down to 71st when you look specifically at break points converted in his career, at 41.3 per cent (4321/10,462).
But not so in 2017. Not now with an iron-fist commitment to come over the backhand return.
Federer is all the way up to No. 3 on the ATP World Tour in 2017 with break points won at 50.4 per cent (59/117). This is a huge jump from his 2016 season, when he only won 39.5 per cent (92/233).
Federer won a mind-blowing 64 per cent (14/22) of his break points at the BNP Paribas Open last week. He won 54 per cent (7/13) against first serves, and an imperious 78 per cent (7/9) against second serves.
Federer may never have hit his backhand as well against Nadal as he did in their fourth-round clash last week in the desert.
Federer broke Nadal in the opening game of the match, blocking back a good backhand jam serve, and then forcing a forehand error. With Nadal serving at 1-3, 15/0, Federer raised the stakes with a cross-court backhand return winner from inside the baseline, against a first serve that was equal parts dismissive and nonchalant.
A couple of points later at break point, Federer once again moved forward inside the baseline against the Spaniard’s first serve, contacted the backhand return way out in front of his body, redirecting it straight back down the line for a return winner. Frozen rope. The shot had almost no follow through, but it did elicit seven small fist pumps as Federer walked to his court side chair enjoying a double break of serve.
On match point, with Nadal serving at 3-5, 15/40 in the second set, Federer jumped all over Nadal’s 84 m.p.h. second serve and rocketed a backhand winner straight back down the line. It was lights out for Nadal, as a glow shone brightly on Federer’s backhand return.
Federer won only 24 per cent of his return games in 2016. That’s already up to 29 per cent this year, and climbing.
Federer concedes he is having a lot fun on the court in 2017, exceeding expectations, and overflowing with confidence. Federer leads the Emirates ATP Race To London with 3,045 points - the same amount of points as No. 2 Nadal (1,635) and No. 3 Stan Wawrinka (1,410) combined.
Federer’s backhand return has caught fire, and now he is playing an intriguing global game of “catch me if you can” for the honour of year-end No. 1 in the Emirates ATP Rankings, which will culminate at the ATP Finals in November.

The first quarter of 2017 is in the books, so let's see who had the hot hand to start the new year.
The big picture clearly shows Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal out in front in the Emirates ATP Race To London. But what about the specifics of serving, returning and elevating in the pressure moments? That’s where the specific metrics of our game step in to paint a clearer picture.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the first quarter identifies four players who are outperforming their peers, laying the foundation for a rise up the Emirates ATP Rankings this season.
No. 1 Service Games Won = Nick Kyrgios 93.3% (208/223)
Ivo Karlovic has been the leader in this category for the past three years, but Kyrgios has knocked the 6’11” Croatian into second place to kick off 2017. Kyrgios defeated Karlovic 6-4, 6-7(4), 7-6(2) in the third round of the Miami Open presented by Itau last week.
Kyrgios broke Karlovic once in the opening set, while the Croatian was not able to break Kyrgios at all, seeing just one break point for the match. The Australian dropped serve twice in his opening-round match in Miami against Damir Dzumhur, and then only dropped serve once (to Federer) during the next 62 service games.
No. 1 Break Points Converted = Daniel Evans 53.7% (51/95)
Evans reached a career high of No. 41 just four weeks ago and currently sits at No. 44. He has a 10-6 record in 2017 after going 9-10 up to this point in 2016. Evans is taking advantage of the big moments so far this season.
He's the only player on the ATP World Tour who has converted more than half of his break points. Evans reached the final of the Apia International Sydney in January, converting an impressive 64.5 per cent (20/31) of his break points.
No. 1 Break Points Saved = Grigor Dimitrov 75.9% (101/133)
Dimitrov has been one of the most dangerous players on tour in 2017, with two titles and a 17-4 record. He played what some think has been the highest quality match so far this season, narrowly going down to Rafael Nadal in five sets during the semi-finals of the Australian Open.
The Bulgarian saved 61.5 per cent (8/13) of his break points in that match, and is saving an astounding 75.9 per cent so far this season. Dimitrov is now up to No. 12 in the Emirates ATP Rankings, from No. 17 at the start of the year, and is knocking hard on the Top 10.
No. 1 Second-Serve Return Points Won = Richard Gasquet 61.1% (225/368)
The 30-year-old Frenchman had a solid February, reaching the final of the Open Sud de France in Montpellier and the semi-finals of the Open 13 Marseille. Gasquet’s career average for winning second-serve points is 51 per cent, so he is clearly crushing that at 61.1 per cent. To give some historical perspective, Spaniard Alberto Berasategui has the career record for second-serve points won at 56.3 per cent.

Which component of our game is most closely linked to becoming a Top 10 player?
The ATP Stats LEADERBOARDS, powered by the Infosys Information Platform, track six Serve categories, three Returning, and four Under Pressure areas of our game. This Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis focuses on how many in the Top 10 of the Emirates ATP Rankings in the 2016 season, and also the first month of 2017, featured in the Top 10 in each of those categories.
The winner was Second Serve Points Won.
Six of the Top 10 players in the world during this period also featured in the Top 10 in Second Serve Points Won. The leaders were Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic, who both won 56.4 per cent, followed by Stan Wawrinka (56.3 per cent), Milos Raonic (55.3 per cent), Kei Nishikori (55.3 per cent), and Marin Cilic (54.8 per cent).
It appears that the age-old adage that you are only as good as your second serve really holds true under a statistical microscope. It was a three-way tie for the next best category, with Service Games Won, Return Games Won and Deciding Sets Won all featuring five of the Top 10 players in the world from the 2016 season.
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Interestingly, the three lowest totals were Average Aces Per Match, Average Double Faults Per Match and Tie-Breaks Won, which all had just two Top 10 players in the Top 10 of their specific list. No player featured in the Top 10 in all 13 statistical categories, but Djokovic, who finished last season ranked No. 2, performed the best. He appeared in the Top 10 in eight of the 13 categories.
Novak Djokovic 2016 Season
Statistic Overall Ranking Percentage
Second Serve Points Won 1st 56.4%
Second Serve Return Points Won 1st 58.5%
Deciding Sets Won 2nd 88.9%
First Serve Return Points Won 2nd 34.7%
Return Games Won 3rd 34.5%
Tie-Breaks Won 3rd 73.1%
First Serve Percentage 9th 65%
Service Games Won 9th 86.2%
The beating heart of Djokovic’s game clearly centers around second serves, as he finished No. 1 in Second Serve Points Won (56.4 per cent) and No. 1 in Second Serve Return Points Won (58.5 per cent). Taking that a step further, Djokovic actually fares better returning his opponent's second serve than he does when the point starts with his own second serve. That’s also a clear message for players at all levels of the game: During practice, reduce the baseline grinding and spend more time developing these two key “first-strike” elements.
Rafael Nadal was the second best performer, appearing in the Top 10 in seven statistical categories, including No. 1 in First Serve Percentage (70.4 per cent), First Serve Return Points Won (35.5 per cent), and Return Games Won (40.8 per cent).
Raonic was next best, appearing in six Top 10 categories, leading the Top 10 in First Serve Points Won (80 per cent) and Service Games Won (90.6 per cent).
Nishikori and Federer appeared in four Top 10 ATP Stats LEADERBOARDS, while Wawrinka, Cilic and Gael Monfils were in three. Tomas Berdych made two, and Dominic Thiem reached one – second best in the Top 10 in Deciding Sets Won at 87.5 per cent.
The breakdown of these numbers clearly shows that you don’t need to be good at everything you do on a tennis court, but you must have multiple weapons to reach the elite level.
More stories like this in:

The Mediterranean shimmers at one end of the court. Sheer rock cliffs tower behind the elegant clubhouse at the other end. In the middle is a court of clay. Enter, Rafael Nadal.
Nadal is a staggering 58-4 at the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters since 2003, winning nine titles and $5.5 million from just this one stop on tour.
Can he win it again in 2017? To know what’s coming in the future, it is best to connect the clay court dots from the past. An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of his successful 2016 campaign, when he dropped only two sets en route to his ninth Monte-Carlo title, identifies four key areas of dominance.
1. Break Points
Converting a break point against Nadal in Monte-Carlo is one of the toughest things to do in our sport. Period. Nadal saved 65 per cent (194/297) of his break points in the 2016 season, and that elevated to 72 per cent (34/47) in Monte-Carlo last year. The sea-level, clay-court conditions are tailor made for his high-bouncing, heavy-spin game.
The Spaniard defeated Dominic Thiem in the round of 16 here last year, saving a colossal 15 of 17 break points for the match. The key was making first serves in the important moments. There were 14 break points contested in the ad court. Nadal made 12 first serves. Three break points were played in the deuce court. Nadal made a first serve on two of them.
Overall, Thiem got a look at only three second serves out of 17 break points – and Nadal saved all three of them. These moments in time weigh heavily to the final outcome.
2. Returning
Nadal is far more lethal in Monte-Carlo returning a second serve than hitting one. Last year, when hitting his own second serve, he won only 49 per cent (53/108) of the points, but he won a mind-blowing 60 per cent (97/161) when returning his opponent’s second serves.
Nadal’s primary tactic is start well behind the baseline, let the second serve drop and crush a forehand return. He then looks to immediately improve his court position up around the baseline, where he finds superior geometry for his wicked spin.
Nadal converted a break point 56 per cent (14/25) of the time in Monte-Carlo last year receiving a second serve and 36.7 per cent (11/30) against a first serve.
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3. Playing From In Front
Nadal is a nightmare to try and break when he gets a lead in his own service games.
2016 Monte-Carlo: Percentage Chance of Holding Serve
15/0 = 93.5% (29/31)
30/0 = 100% (19/19)
30/15 = 95.8% (23/24)
40/15 = 100% (20/20)
Nadal was extended to deuce only 16 times on serve in Monte-Carlo last year, losing just four of those service games. The pressure to hold is constant and adds another layer of strategic influence in the match for the Spaniard.
4. Time Is On His Side
During the 2016 season, Nadal averaged playing 47 minutes per set. That rose to 51 minutes in Monte-Carlo. Nadal uses time as a weapon on court, typically playing the match much more at his speed than that of his opponents. He certainly does not rush to the finish line.
All of the key ingredients from Nadal’s successful 2016 campaign will once again be on show this week. The game plan will be adjusted slightly for each opponent, but the road forward will still be dominated by these four key components

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers shows the subtle differences between 30/30 and deuce
Is there any real difference between 30/30 and deuce?
On the surface, both scorelines clearly show competitors are even in the point score, and both scorelines sit just two points away from a player clinching the game. But once you dig a little deeper, subtle differences do emerge, with 30/30 occurring more frequently, while deuce adds two extra points of strategy and countermoves to the equation.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 in the Emirates ATP Rankings uncovers varying degrees of performance when the players are serving and receiving at 30/30 and deuce.
2017 Top 10 Average Holding Serve
Overall, the Top 10 players average holding serve from both scorelines at almost identical percentages.
30/30 = 77.6%
Deuce = 77.4%
Total 30/30 points = 58% (787)
Total Deuce points = 42% (562)
Some players, such as World No. 1 Andy Murray, bucked the trend by being more efficient holding at deuce than at 30/30. Murray is holding serve a substantial 8.1 percentage points (80 per cent to 71.9 per cent) higher from deuce than he is at 30/30.
Milos Raonic also has performed better at deuce, holding serve 92.9 per cent of the time, a 4.5 per cent improvement over the 88.4 per cent he holds from 30/30.
2017 Top 10 Percentages of Holding Serve From 30/30 and Deuce
Ranking
Player
Serving 30/30
Serving Deuce
+/-
1
Andy Murray
71.9%
80.0%
8.1%
2
Novak Djokovic
75.8%
76.5%
0.7%
3
Stan Wawrinka
77.1%
75.4%
-1.7%
4
Roger Federer
87.2%
86.0%
-1.2%
5
Rafael Nadal
80.4%
81.3%
0.9%
6
Milos Raonic
88.4%
92.9%
4.5%
7
Kei Nishikori
73.6%
73.3%
-0.3%
8
Marin Cilic
72.0%
64.7%
-7.3%
9
Dominic Thiem
78.8%
76.7%
-2.1%
10
David Goffin
73.7%
73.9%
0.2%
AVERAGE
-
77.6%
77.4%
-0.2%
2017 Top 10 Average Breaking Serve
Once again, the slight edge goes to superior analytics from 30/30. The Top 10 broke serve 32.7 per cent of the time from 30/30, and 31.4 per cent of the time from deuce – a difference of 1.3 percentage points.
30/30 = 32.7%
Deuce = 31.4%
Total 30/30 points = 57% (906)
Total Deuce points = 43% (684)
Rafael Nadal, who won his 10th Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters on Sunday, moved up two spots in the Emirates ATP Rankings this week to No. 5. Nadal boasts the biggest difference (5.9 percentage points) in 2017 in breaking from deuce than at 30/30. He breaks at deuce 39.8 per cent of the time, compared to 33.9 per cent of the time at 30/30.
Other players, such as Novak Djokovic and Marin Cilic, actually break more from 30/30, with Djokovic being 7.2 percentage points better and Cilic 8 percentage points better.
2017 Top 10 Percentages of Breaking Serve From 30/30 and Deuce
Ranking
Player
Return 30/30
Returning Deuce
+/-
1
Andy Murray
38.6%
40.3%
1.7%
2
Novak Djokovic
27.6%
20.4%
-7.2%
3
Stan Wawrinka
32.2%
27.1%
-5.1%
4
Roger Federer
34.5%
30.0%
-4.5%
5
Rafael Nadal
33.9%
39.8%
5.9%
6
Milos Raonic
31.9%
25.8%
-6.1%
7
Kei Nishikori
32.0%
37.5%
5.5%
8
Marin Cilic
28.6%
20.6%
-8.0%
9
Dominic Thiem
36.0%
31.3%
-4.7%
10
David Goffin
30.1%
31.5%
1.4%
AVERAGE
-
32.7%
31.4%
-1.3%
The chances of a player holding and breaking serve from these two specific scorelines in a game are very similar on average but can also move up and down considerably with each player. Tracking performance in these key areas throws new light on the inner workings of our sport.

The Top 10 are under siege.
As a collective unit, they are not enjoying the same success this season as they did last year when attempting to win the opening point of their service games.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 in the Emirates ATP Rankings uncovers an almost two percentage-point drop in the Top 10 forging ahead to 15/0 compared to falling behind 0/15 when serving.
In fact, eight of the current Top 10 players are performing worse during the opening point of their service games this year compared to last year. The standout is current World No. 5 Rafael Nadal, who has improved almost five percentage points in 2017 compared to 2016.
The 30-year-old Spaniard is 29-5 through the first four months of this season. The left-hander claimed his 10th title at both the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters and the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell last month.
Read More: Nadal Wins 10th Barcelona Title
The only other player to be in positive numbers in 2017 compared to 2016 is No. 7 Kei Nishikori, who has improved by almost two percentage points.
Top 10 2017 vs. 2016: Percentage of Winning The Opening Point On Serve
Ranking
Player
2016
2017
Percentage-Point Change
5
Rafael Nadal
61.4%
66.2%
4.8
7
Kei Nishikori
66.4%
68.3%
1.9
8
Marin Cilic
69.2%
67.5%
-1.7
3
Stan Wawrinka
66.9%
65.1%
-1.8
9
Dominic Thiem
67.1%
64.5%
-2.6
1
Andy Murray
69.2%
66.5%
-2.7
10
David Goffin
64.8%
61.9%
-2.9
2
Novak Djokovic
70.5%
66.8%
-3.7
4
Roger Federer
73.0%
68.7%
-4.3
6
Milos Raonic
74.5%
68.0%
-6.5
-
AVERAGE
68.3%
66.4%
-1.9
The peak performer in the current Top 10 in 2017 is Roger Federer, who is winning the opening point of his service games nearly 69 per cent of the time, with Nishikori in second place at about 68 per cent.
Federer was actually at 73 per cent last season – second to only Milos Raonic, who was head and shoulders above the pack at 74.5 per cent. Nadal was the worst performer out of the current Top 10 during the 2016 season, winning the opening point of his service games only 61.4 per cent of the time.
Navigating from love-all to 15/0 is more challenging so far this season for the Top 10 – a small chink in their armour where opponents are enjoying increased success.