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Grigor Dimitrov has tightened his grip on his own destiny.

Imagine the server holding a tennis ball in his hand, and the returner trying to rip it free. That’s essentially what happens at the crucible moment of break point in a tennis match. The server still possesses the ball, but the returner is just one strong pull away from owning the moment.

It’s a battle of determination and nerves as much as strategy, and Dimitrov has vastly improved in saving break points this season compared to the rest of his career.


An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Dimitrov’s performance at break point in 2017 compared all the way back to the 2011 season, when he first broke into the Top 100, identifies improved maturity, strength and resolve that has powered him to a career best No. 3 in the Emirates ATP Rankings.

Dimitrov: Break Points Saved 2011-2017

Year

Break Points Saved

2017

70%

2016

60%

2015

65%

2014

64%

2013

60%

2012

65%

2011

55%

2011-2016 Average

61.5%

Dimitrov saved a career-best 70 per cent (252/360) of break points in 2017, which was 10 percentage points better than 2016. It was also fourth best on tour this year in this critical category. One big reason for the improvement was Dimitrov put more first serves in play when facing break point.

2017 Averages

Overall 1st serve percentage = 63% (3183/5034)

1st serve percentage facing break point = 66% (237/360)

Dimitrov performed slightly better making first serves in the deuce court down 15/40 than he did in the Ad court at 0/40, 30/40 and all the Ad Out points combined.

1st Serve Percentage Down Break Point

Deuce court = 74% (58/78)

Ad court = 63% (179/282)

In the Ad court, where 82 per cent of his break points were contested in 2017, he preferred to serve wide the most, which also delivered the highest win percentage out of the three locations.

Dimitrov: 2017 1st Serve Facing Break Point / Ad Court

Ad Court Wide Body T
1st Serves Made 35 (57%) 7 (11%) 20 (32%)
1st Serves Won 27 (77%) 5 (71%) 11 (55%)
In the deuce court, where only 18 per cent of his break points were contested, every time the Bulgarian served down the T, he saved the break point (9/9), which was far superior to the 55 per cent (11/20) he won serving down the T in the Ad court.

Dimitrov: 2017 1st Serve Facing Break Point / Deuce Court

Duece Court Wide Body T
1st Serves Made 9 (64%) 0 5 (36%)
1st Serves Won 9 (100%) 0 3 (60%)
Dimitrov’s steely resolve helped him reach new heights in 2017. If he continues on this trajectory, he may be set to push even higher.

It’s official. One of the greatest players of all-time has found a way to become even greater.

Roger Federer put up better serve numbers in 2017 than he has at any other time in his illustrious career. We thought the glory days of Federer existed primarily between 2003-2007, when he amassed 49 tour-level titles, and seemed from another world. But along came seven titles in 2017, and the Renaissance of Roger stunned us all.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Federer’s combined first and second serve win percentages shows this season has no peer in those categories. This year, the Swiss won 79.7 per cent (2181/2734) of his first-serve points to be ranked fourth best on tour in this specific category. Federer failed to hit the 80 per cent mark from 1991-2014 with first serve points won, but he has now done it for three consecutive years.

Federer won 59.4 per cent (989/1664) of his second serve points in 2017, finishing second to Rafael Nadal, who won 61.2 per cent. Federer’s best winning season with this specific metric was 2012, when he won 60 per cent of his second serve points.

When you combine Federer's first and second serve points won in a single season from 1999 to the present, 2017 sits at the top of the mountain. The Swiss right-hander also finished second on tour with service games won in 2017, at 91.3 per cent (684/749), slightly edged by John Isner, who won 92.9 per cent (747/804).

In many ways, Federer’s body of work in 2017 surpassed milestones that he established over a decade ago. Father Time has clearly yet to catch up to Federer, who at 36 years of age, is playing a smart schedule to maximise his prodigious talents and extend his career.

If you think you missed Federer at his peak, think again.

Roger Federer 1999-2017: 1st & 2nd Serve Points Won / Combined Total

Who is going to rock the tennis world in 2018?

The crystal ball of player improvement can sometimes be uncertain, but an Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis highlights the group of players you should keep your eye on in the 2018 season, based on their promise and performance in 2017. For different reasons and at different rankings, these players look poised to make serious headlines in 2018. Let’s just say you heard it here first…

1. Next to be No. 1 = Grigor Dimitrov

The jigsaw puzzle has finally come together for the talented 26-year-old Bulgarian. He started 2017 ranked No. 17 in the ATP Rankings, but surged all the way to No. 3 at the end of the season courtesy of winning the Nitto ATP Finals in London. In 2016, Dimitrov saved only 60 per cent (238/397) of break points when serving, good enough for 36th best on tour in this specific category. Fast forward to 2017 and that number sky-rocketed to 70 per cent (252/360), and he leaped to fifth best saving break points. He is now mentally tougher, physically stronger, and has the confidence to stand alone at the summit.

2. Top 10 Breakthrough = Nick Kyrgios

The 22-year-old Australian reached No. 13 in October 2016, but moved backwards to No. 21 to finish the 2017 season. He is better than that, as we saw on Sunday when he beat Ryan Harrison to capture the Brisbane International presented by Suncorp title and improve his ATP Ranking to No. 17. Kyrgios is young and brash, and has already established himself as one of the premier servers in the history of our sport.

3. Top 20 Breakthrough = Hyeon Chung

Chung is currently ranked No. 62, but finished 2017 in a flourish, winning the inaugural Next Gen ATP Finals in Milan in November. Impressively, Chung was the eighth best returner on tour in 2017, winning 27.9 per cent of his return games, which put him higher than Top 10 players Roger Federer (26.7 per cent), David Goffin (26.7 per cent), and Dominic Thiem (25.2 per cent). Chung started 2017 outside the Top 100, but look for him to be firmly entrenched in the Top 20 by the end of 2018.

4. Big Upsets Coming = Andrey Rublev

When you see elite level players being upset on the big stage in 2018, there is a good chance that this 20-year-old Russian will be the reason. Rublev started 2018 ranked No. 39 and climbed to No. 32 with his Qatar ExxonMobil Open final run last week. But Rublev has the potential to reach the Top 20, and then halve that number by season’s end.


Rublev has already excelled on the big stage, reaching the quarter-finals of the 2017 US Open with wins against Top 10 players Dimitrov and Goffin. Rublev was an impressive 14th best on tour returning serve in 2017. His highest strategic ranking was 10th best with points won returning second serves, at 53.4 per cent. He was just 71st best on the ATP Stats Serve LEADERBOARD. Rublev actually has an outstanding service motion, so as that continues to mature, it’s all upside in 2018 for the Moscow native.

5. The Excitement Machine = Denis Shapovalov

The 18-year-old Canadian had an outstanding 2017, leaping all the way from No. 250 at the start of the year to No. 51 by season's end after reaching a career-high No. 49 in October. What does he do so well? The list is a mile long, but you must start with the serve. He was ranked 21st on the ATP Stats Serve LEADERBOARD in 2017, and was 13th best winning points behind his second serve at 53.9 per cent. His left-handed delivery is defined by accuracy, slice and power – and it’s going to only improve.

6. The Stalwarts of the ATP World Tour

Despite all the fresh and exciting players who made noise in 2017, let's not forget that no one had a better year than year-end No. 1 Rafael Nadal, and close behind him was longtime rival Roger Federer, who finished at No. 2. Stan Wawrinka, Novak Djokovic and 2016 year-end No. 1 Andy Murray all had to end their seasons early because of injuries, but expect the trio of greats, along with Milos Raonic and Kei Nishikori, to be back in fine form at some point in 2018 to make this year one of the most exciting seasons in recent memory.

Dimitrov, Kyrgios, Chung, Rublev, Shapovalov, along with the traditional powers of men's tennis, will all make waves in 2018. Keep an eye on them and follow their progress all season at ATPWorldTour.com. It’s going to be a fun ride.

You are left-handed. You are serving at 30/40, and naturally opt for the slider out wide in the Ad court to give yourself the highest percentage chance to save break point. Not so fast…

An Infosys Serve & Return Tracker analysis of the eight left-handed players currently in the Top 50 of the ATP Rankings identifies that, from the Ad court, serving wide and serving down the T deliver the same winning percentage, at 78 per cent.

The eight left-handed players primarily served wide on break point with their first serves, but not at the volume our instincts would suspect. The data set comes from 2017 ATP World Tour Masters 1000 events and the 2017 Nitto ATP Finals.

First Serves Made at 30/40

Wide = 55%

Body = 11%

T = 34%

Some players, such as Mischa Zverev, stayed true to the traditional lefty pattern of slicing out wide at 30/40. Zverev hit 100 per cent (12) of his first serves there. Denis Shapovalov, Fernando Verdasco and Adrian Mannarino also favoured this primary pattern.

World No. 1 Rafael Nadal mixed it up much more, hitting more body serves (11) at 30/40 than the other seven players combined (nine). Nadal made 18 first serves wide, 15 down the T, and 11 at the body.

Other lefties, such as Feliciano Lopez, Albert Ramos-Vinolas and Gilles Muller actually hit more first serves down the T at 30/40, undoubtedly trying to surprise their opponent who was sitting on a wide delivery.

First-Serve Direction at 30/40

Ranking

Player

Wide

Body

T

1

Rafael Nadal

18

11

15

22

Albert Ramos-Vinolas

8

2

9

25

Gilles Muller

9

2

11

28

Adrian Mannarino

19

1

10

34

Mischa Zverev

12

0

0

36

Feliciano Lopez

4

0

8

40

Fernando Verdasco

16

2

4

50

Denis Shapovalov

10

2

2





96 (55%)

20 (11%)

59 (34%)

First Serve Win Percentage at 30/40

Ranking

Player

Wide

Body

T

1

Rafael Nadal

72% (13/18)

36% (4/11)

73% (11/15)

22

Albert Ramos-Vinolas

100% (8/8)

50% (1/2)

67% (6/9)

25

Gilles Muller

89% (8/9)

50% (1/2)

73% (8/11)

28

Adrian Mannarino

74% (14/19)

100% (1/1)

90% (9/10)

34

Mischa Zverev

75% (9/12)

0% (0/0)

0% (0/0)

36

Feliciano Lopez

100% (4/4)

0% (0/0)

88% (7/8)

40

Fernando Verdasco

88% (14/16)

50% (1/2)

75% (3/4)

50

Denis Shapovalov

50% (5/10)

50% (1/2)

100% (2/2)

-

AVERAGE

78% (75/96)

45% (9/20)

78% (46/59)

What’s amazing is that the eight lefties combined to win 78 per cent (75/96) with their wide slider, and 78 per cent (46/59) with the surprise delivery down the T. The body serve actually had a losing record, winning only 45 per cent (9/20) of first serves at 30/40. The main reason for that is that most body serves come back in play, while returners tend to miss much more when defending from the corners of the service box.

Ramos-Vinolas didn’t drop a point serving wide at 30/40, winning eight of eight first serves, while Mannarino was a peak performer down the T, winning nine of 10. This is a great lesson for players at all levels of the game. Surprising the opponent by going to a secondary location can have big benefits when the scoreboard brings extra pressure to the point.

Most returns in tennis land just past the service line, no matter if you are returning first or second serves.

There are three main regions to divide up the court when analysing return depth, and as it turns out, the region in the middle of the court acts as a magnet for all returns.

An Infosys Serve & Return Tracker analysis of Rafael Nadal returning first and second serves in the Deuce court at ATP World Tour Masters 1000 events and the Nitto ATP Finals from 2011-2017 identifies that getting the return really deep is a lot easier said than done.

d by Infosys NIA Data, with a career Return Rating of 167.5. Argentines Guillermo Coria (171.5) and Guillermo Perez-Roldan (168.1) are the only two ahead of him. The leaderboard includes matches dating back to the 1991 season.

Zone 1 - Service Box

Nadal hit 31 per cent of his returns in the service box against first serves, and as you would expect, that number improved when returning second serves, dropping down to 27 per cent. Typically, returns in the service box are not desirable, as it invites the server onto the front foot to attack with his Serve +1 groundstroke.

Zone 2 - Between service line and baseline / closer to the service line

Nadal enjoyed a four percentage point improvement (47 per cent first serves / 51 per cent second serves) in this area when returning second serves compared to first serves. Nadal is no doubt aiming as deep as he can, but by far the majority of returns landed in this middle zone, primarily because it provides the least amount of risk right in the middle of the court.

Zone 3 - Between service line and baseline / closer to the baseline

These numbers were the most surprising, as Nadal could not improve his overall return depth to Zone 3 when returning a second serve instead of a first serve. Nadal averages slightly better than one in five (22 per cent) of his returns to this very deep location, aiming to push the server immediately onto his back foot and force an error.

Players at all levels of the game would greatly benefit by putting down a line of balls half-way between the service line and baseline, and hitting returns over them to the deep Zone 3 location. The depth of the return often trumps the power, spin and direction of this specific shot.

Brit has drastically improved his serving Down Under
Kyle Edmund’s first serve has caught fire Down Under.

The 23-year-old Brit served 315 aces during 60 matches in 2017 to help power himself to a year-end ATP Ranking of No. 50. Solid numbers, but nothing like what he has done during his run to the semi-finals of the 2018 Australian Open.

Edmund has hit 78 aces through five matches in Melbourne – which is remarkably already 25 per cent of his season total from last year. Five of Edmund’s aces have come behind second serves.


Edmund is currently ranked 32nd on the Infosys ATP Stats Serve LEADERBOARD, which reflects good serving, but clearly shows he is not yet one of the serving greats on the ATP World Tour. Edmund’s 78 aces so far in Melbourne have him fifth highest for the tournament in that category, with his fastest serve being 205 km/h (127mph). That serve speed ties him for 42nd fastest for the tournament, so it’s clearly not pure heat that is fueling the ace count.

Edmund has been hitting his spots extremely well the past two weeks, with 68 per cent (53/78) of his aces being struck in the Deuce court, and 32 per cent (25/78) in the Ad court.

Ace Location

Deuce Court Wide = 28% (22)

Deuce Court T = 40% (31)

Ad Court Wide = 14% (11)

Ad Court T = 18% (14)

Edmund’s favourite location has been down the T in the Deuce court, where 40 per cent (31) of his aces have been hit.


What’s interesting is that while Edmund’s ace total has sharply risen, his double faults have not. Edmund averaged 1.9 aces per double fault in the 2017 season, but that has skyrocketed to 5.2 aces per double fault in Melbourne.

His first-serve percentage in 2017 was 58 per cent. He is at 63 per cent in Melbourne the past two weeks. His first-serve points won has risen from his 2017 average of 74 per cent, to 78 per cent at the Australian Open.

You would naturally think that Edmund’s second-serve performance would also be sharply higher, but it’s simply not the case. Edmund won 53 per cent of his second-serve points in 2017, and that’s only up one percentage point to 54 per cent in Melbourne.

Edmund plays Marin Cilic in the Australian Open semi-finals on Thursday evening. Cilic has pumped 96 aces so far, committing just 17 double faults. Expect aces to flow freely on Rod Laver Arena.

Note: Statistics at the Australian Open are recorded by SMT.

The golden age of the returner has spawned another great returner.

Hyeon Chung is the Mover of the Week in the Top 100 of the ATP Rankings, charging up 29 spots to No. 29 on the back of his semi-final run at the Australian Open.

The 21-year-old from South Korea follows a recent trend in our sport where the elite-level players are more proficient returning than serving.

For example, when you examine year-end No. 1 players from 1991 to 2017, the best return performance was from 2011 to 2016. Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal have taken the returning side of our game to a whole new level.

By comparison, the five best years for elite serve performance were all before 2010, with Andy Roddick, Pete Sampras and Roger Federer leading the way.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of what is powering Chung up the ATP Rankings clearly shows that his return of serve is mature beyond its years.

Chung is ranked No. 29, but he is 11th best on the ATP Stats Return LEADERBOARD, powered by Infosys Nia Data. The Leaderboard is determined by adding the winning percentage in the following four areas:

First-Serve Return Points Won

Second-Serve Return Points Won

Return Games Won

Break Points Converted

Chung’s performance serving is not yet at this elite level, as he is ranked just 59th best on tour in the ATP Stats Serve LEADERBOARD during the past 52 weeks.

Second-serve points won is his lowest area, being 77th best in this specific category. He actually has a losing record there, winning just 49.3 per cent of points. That’s not going to last for long.

Chung did improve that second-serve stat in his run to the semi-finals in Melbourne, winning an impressive 57 per cent to the semi-finals before having to retire against Roger Federer with blisters on his feet.


On the receiving side in Melbourne, Chung elevated his break points converted to the semi-finals, winning 47 per cent (24/51), which was significantly better than the 42 per cent he had won during the past 12 months.

Chung was tied for first in Melbourne with Baseline Points Won, winning an impressive 55 per cent (350/641) of his points from the back of the court. Federer, who won the tournament for a sixth time, won only 51 per cent (322/632) of his baseline points.

There is no doubt about it: Chung is definitely trending towards the Top 10. The returns and baseline play are already there. Expect to see improved serve numbers this season.

You can draw a straight line between rising up the ATP rankings and improving your second-serve return.

The first serve is always an asset for players because of the raw power, but win percentages surrounding second serves can easily flip into the liability column, especially against a good returner.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the best returners from the 2017 season shows that the second-serve return can evolve into a bigger weapon than the second serve itself.


For example, Grigor Dimitrov won 48.2 per cent (1033/2142) of his second-serve return points in 2016 from 65 matches. Everything under 50 per cent sits in the liability column, and this was not an obvious strength of the Bulgarian’s game two seasons ago, when he finished No. 17 in the 2016 year-end ATP Rankings.

But fast forward to 2017 and Dimitrov surged all the way up to No. 3, winning 52 per cent (1092/2101) of second-serve return points from 68 matches. He was 34th best on tour in 2016 in this specific category, and he moved up to ninth best last season.

2017 Season: Top 10 Second-Serve Return Points Won

Ranking

Player

Second-Serve Return Win Percentage

Points Won

Total Points

1

Diego Schwartzman

56.13%

1213

2161

2

Rafael Nadal

55.63%

1289

2317

3

Roberto Bautista Agut

54.13%

1187

2193

4

Richard Gasquet

54.08%

776

1435

5

David Goffin

53.91%

1343

2491

6

Hyeon Chung

53.37%

697

1306

7

Pablo Carreno Busta

53.01%

994

1875

8

Fernando Verdasco

52.49%

897

1709

9

Grigor Dimitrov

51.98%

1092

2101

10

Lucas Pouille

51.56%

924

1792

Diego Schwartzman, the 25-year-old Argentine, finished first on tour in 2017 with second-serve points won, at just over 56 per cent. The only other player to be above 55 per cent was World No. 1 Rafael Nadal, who won 55.6 per cent of his second-serve return points.

Roberto Bautista Agut and Richard Gasquet were both above 54 per cent, while David Goffin, Hyeon Chung and Pablo Carreno Busta were all north of 53 per cent.

Rounding out the Top 10 in this category were Fernando Verdasco, Dimitrov and Lucas Pouille. Overall, there were 24 players on tour that were able to generate a winning percentage returning second serves.

The ideal target with this specific shot is right down the middle of the court at the server. Big shots go to big targets, and aggression with second-serve returns is more about power, spin and depth, than direction hitting away from the server.

It’s a pretty clear lesson. Improve your second-serve return, and see your ranking improve.

On the surface, the serve is the ultimate weapon in our sport.
It’s the hardest hit shot, and is the driving force behind the most common rally length in matches – a rally of just one shot. The serve went in, but the return didn’t come back in play. That rally length happens way more than anything else, right around 30 per cent of total points.

It creates the greatest paradox in our sport – the practice court is overflowing with forehands and backhands, but the rally length that dominates the match court contains only a serve and a return.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis identifies that only 222 players since 1991 have been able to make their second serve an asset – winning a minimum of 50.1 per cent of second-serve points played.

It’s an astonishing metric since most of us hold the view that the serve in general is a dominant weapon. First serves definitely are, but second serves are absolutely not.

World No. 1 Rafael Nadal is widely recognised as a preeminent returner in our game. He is third best on tour since 1991 in return points won against first serves, and fourth best returning second serves.

But there is a serve category in which he is simply the best: Nadal is No. 1 in second-serve points won, at 57.2 per cent (13,485/23,590). The Top 10 career leaders in this category:

Career Leaders: Top 10 Second-Serve Points Won

Ranking

Player

Percentage Won

1

Rafael Nadal

57.16%

2

Roger Federer

56.70%

3

John Isner

56.01%

4

Andy Roddick

55.95%

5

Novak Djokovic

55.35%

6

Wayne Arthurs

54.63%

7

Milos Raonic

54.60%

8

Juan Carlos Ferrero

54.22%

9

Andre Agassi

53.98%

10

Stan Wawrinka

53.72%

TOTAL

AVERAGE

55.23%

When you search farther down the list, just below the 50 per cent win mark, there is an impressive array of players who attained a coveted Top 10 ranking but had a losing record with second-serve points won.

Top 10 Players: Career Second-Serve Points Won

No.

Player

Career High Ranking

Percentage Won

1

Andrei Medvedev

4

48.71%

2

Jonas Bjorkman

4

49.18%

3

Thomas Enqvist

4

49.46%

4

Cedric Pioline

5

49.47%

5

Gaston Gaudio

5

49.84%

6

Jakob Hlasek

7

48.65%

7

Alberto Berasategui

7

48.79%

8

Mark Philippoussis

8

49.93%

9

Carlos Costa

10

48.97%

10

Magnus Gustafsson

10

49.51%

-

-

AVERAGE

49.3%

Second serves are the real battleground in our sport. First-serve win percentage is always positive in our sport, all the way down to Under 12s. Not even close with second serves.

At last month's Australian Open, Nadal averaged hitting his first serve 114 mph (180 km/h) through five matches to the quarter-finals. His average speed on second serves dropped to 95 mph (153 km/h).

That’s a 19 mph (31 km/h) difference, and is the primary reason winning points behind second serves becomes so much tougher. It’s simply not the big hammer like the first serve.

itting short returns back into the service box is a losing proposition – but typically against only first serves.

Depth is a foundational element of our sport, and it's one of four strategies that players look to exploit with the geometry of our rectangular court, along with consistency, direction and height.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of more than 10,000 return points by the Top 10 players in the ATP Rankings reveals that hitting short returns off first serves is asking for trouble. The speed of the first serve forces many defensive returns that land short, and the server typically cleans up coming forward.


But not so with second serves, where the return may be short, but it’s also typically hit more offensively, so at least the returner has some power working for them.

Current Top 10 Average - Win Percentage Returning Into Service Boxes

Returning First Serve = 42.3%

Returning Second Serve = 52.7%

The data set is accumulated from ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournaments and Nitto ATP Finals between 2011 and 2017.

First-Serve Returns In The Service Box
Juan Martin del Potro was the peak performer out of the current Top 10 in winning points against first serves that are returned short back in the service box at 45.1 per cent. Del Potro is currently No. 9 in the ATP Rankings, but moved all the way to first in this specific category.

Top 10 of the ATP Rankings: First-Serve Return Win Percentage - Returns In The Service Box

ATP Ranking

Player

First Return Points Won

First Total

Win %

9

Juan Martin del Potro

202

448

45.1%

2

Rafael Nadal

702

1578

44.5%

1

Roger Federer

497

1133

43.9%

4

Grigor Dimitrov

245

561

43.7%

3

Marin Cilic

218

515

42.3%

7

David Goffin

180

428

42.1%

5

Alexander Zverev

128

318

40.3%

10

Jack Sock

194

482

40.2%

6

Dominic Thiem

150

403

37.2%

8

Kevin Anderson

107

333

32.1%

-

AVERAGE

2623

6199

42.3%

A likely reason is Del Potro’s omnipotent return power, no matter what shot is coming at him. Rafael Nadal is second best (44.5%), while World No. 1 Roger Federer is third, winning 43.9 per cent.

Second-Serve Returns In The Service Box
Only two of the current Top 10 players had a losing record when returning second serves short in the service box. The best was Federer, at 56.2 per cent, and then David Goffin, at 54.4 per cent. Federer and Goffin both feel the magnetism of the baseline so well early in a rally, and stay up in the court to begin the point much more than Dominic Thiem or Jack Sock, who were the two players who had a losing record.

The dynamic of early court position is definitely in play here. There is simply nothing good about standing way back to return a second serve and hitting it short.

Top 10 of the ATP Rankings: Second-Serve Return Win Percentage - Returns In The Service Box

Ranking

Player

Second Won

Second Total

Win %

1

Roger Federer

455

810

56.2%

7

David Goffin

143

263

54.4%

9

Juan Martin del Potro

162

304

53.3%

2

Rafael Nadal

603

1135

53.1%

4

Grigor Dimitrov

202

385

52.5%

3

Marin Cilic

193

369

52.3%

5

Alexander Zverev

84

165

50.9%

8

Kevin Anderson

102

204

50.0%

6

Dominic Thiem

140

285

49.1%

10

Jack Sock

129

276

46.7%

-

AVERAGE

2213

4196

52.7%

Short returns in the service box are inevitable, but these new metrics certainly support drills for the practice court that put a premium on getting the return past the service line.

Roger Federer has been one of the premier hard-court performers on the ATP World Tour throughout his career. But since the beginning of 2017, when the Swiss was as low as No. 17 in the ATP Rankings, he has far exceeded his already-impressive average win-rate on the surface.

In fact, Federer has led the Tour with a 52-4 record (92.9 per cent) on hard courts during that span, winning seven of his nine tour-level titles on the surface since the start of last year. Five of those seven triumphs came at either an ATP World Tour Masters 1000 event (2017 Indian Wells, 2017 Miami, 2017 Shanghai) or a Grand Slam (2017 & 2018 Australian Open).

But perhaps what is most impressive is that the 97-time tour-level champion has far exceeded the best win-loss rates on the surface in the history of the sport. According to the FedEx ATP Performance Zone, Novak Djokovic has the highest all-time winning percentage on hard courts, triumphing an impressive 84.2 per cent of the time, with Federer right behind at 83.4 per cent.

Best Career Records On Hard Courts

Player W-L Rate Career W-L Tour-Level Hard-Court Titles
Novak Djokovic 84.2 % 511-96 51
Roger Federer 83.4 % 720-143 67
Jimmy Connors 82.8 % 547-114 49
Ivan Lendl 82.1 % 395-86 31
Rod Laver 81.3 % 156-36 18
Then, you can compare that stretch to the best career records on other surfaces. Rafael Nadal is undeniably the greatest clay-court performer in history, winning 91.7 per cent of his matches (389-35). Don Budge leads the way on grass with a 52-5 record (91.2 per cent).

Visit FedEx ATP Performance Zone

Sure, Federer’s run of success has lasted just more than a year at this point, but 56 matches is not a small sample size. And when you take a look at the rest of the Swiss' career, it shows that Federer’s recent win-loss record on hard courts is not a fluke. In 2005, the right-hander won 50 of 51 hard-court matches (98 per cent) on the surface and followed that up the next year by winning 59 of 61 (96.7 per cent) matches. In total, he has exceeded a 90 per cent win-rate on hard courts for an entire season four times. This year, he is off to a 12-0 start.

Federer's Best Years On Hard Courts

Year W-L Rate Year W-L Tour-Level Hard-Court Titles
2005 98.0 % 50-1 8
2006 96.7 % 59-2 9
2004 92.0 % 46-4 7
2017 90.9 % 40-4 5
2014 88.7 % 55-7 4
One of the leading factors spurring this recent run is that in 14 of his 56 matches since the beginning of last year, Federer has not faced a break point, and in nine more, he saved each break opportunity held against him.

So, how has he been so successful on hard courts recently? Former World No. 1 Jim Courier says that one shot in particular has improved dramatically.

“Roger’s addition of backhand aggression from the start of 2017 has had a massive impact on his results,” Courier told ATPWorldTour.com. “To go 4-0 [all on hard courts] versus Nadal last year was awfully impressive and due in large part to the backhand wing.”

And while this hard-court run has been magnificent, Courier says that it’s not just about the surface.

“Roger is impressive on all surfaces, including hard courts, due to his all court acumen and fantastic technique,” Courier said.

Federer now enters a critical stretch of events at the BNP Paribas Open and the Miami Open presented by Itau — the first two ATP World Tour Masters 1000 events of the season — where he defends 2,000 ATP Rankings points from last season’s victories. Federer will have to be at his best, as he must advance to at least the semi-finals in Indian Wells to maintain his spot atop the ATP Rankings.

Is it possible to move from outside the Top 1,000 into the Top 10 in just two years?

Yes. Juan Martin del Potro just did it.

The Tower of Tandil was ranked No. 1,042 in the ATP Rankings in February 2016. Skip forward two years and he was ranked No. 9 on 26 February, and he's up to No. 8 this week after winning the Abierto Mexicano Telcel presentado por HSBC in Acapulco on Saturday.

You would naturally think that Del Potro’s magical run, cutting his ranking from four digits down to just one in such a short period of time, was predicated on creating lop-sided win percentages. It wasn’t.

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An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis uncovered that the Argentine won just 51.8 per cent (8111/15653) of points from February 2016 to February 2018. It’s simply mind-blowing that a 1.8 per cent increase over a 50-50 battle can produce such phenomenal success in just 24 months.

Del Potro played 15,652 points during the two-year period, crafting a winning margin of just 569 points (won 8111 points / lost 7542 points).

Del Potro - February 2016 - February 2018
Matches Won = 72.3% (81 won / 31 lost)

Points Won = 51.8% (8111 won / 7542 lost)

Del Potro played 112 matches, which breaks his points won advantage (569) down to just a five-point edge, on average, per match. This may be an overly simplistic view of his steep climb up the ATP Rankings, but it does clearly illustrate how little of a margin is really needed to vault from obscurity to the very elite tier of our sport.

Read More: Delpo Carries Momentum Into Critical Stretch

In winning five matches in Acapulco last week, and dropping only one set, Del Potro defeated three consecutive Top 10 opponents and won just 54 per cent (351/645) of total points. Our sport is built on crafting small margins at lots of different stopping points around the globe.

Del Potro Points Won
2016 = 52.5% (2604/4956)

2017 = 51.3% (4379/8534)

2018 = 52.1% (Jan/Feb) = (1128/2163)

It is all too common in our sport to have a “perfectionist” view of competition. We naturally want to win every point we play. Del Potro’s ascendency back into the Top 10 clearly shows that tennis is truly a game of percentages, and small gains in patterns of play when serving, returning, rallying and approaching can turn your wildest dreams into a stunning reality.

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers highlights return depth on Deuce and Ad courts

Directing first serves out wide in the Ad court will bring significantly more shorter returns than hitting them wide in the Deuce court.

The primary reason is that right-handed returners must hit a backhand return in the Ad court, and we now know that depth is a real issue with this specific shot from out wide. An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of more than 17,000 wide returns against first serves in both the Deuce and Ad courts hit by current players in the Top 20 of the ATP Rankings uncovers this hidden strategic anomaly.

The data set of 17,705 wide first serve returns comes from ATP World Tour Masters 1000 events and Nitto ATP Finals from 2011-2018. Return depth is divided up into three categories.

1. Short = In the service box.
2. Middle = Behind the service line (but closer to the service line than baseline).
3. Deep = Closer to the baseline than the service line.

You May Also Like: Delpo’s Big Rise Built On Small Margins
Return depth to the middle area was the most constant between the Deuce and Ad courts, only varying 1.9 percentage points (49.7% to 47.8%).

The larger percentage swings were primarily from short returns in the service box and deep returns back near the baseline. There was a significant 5.4 percentage difference in short returns, and a 3.6 percentage point swing in deep returns hit between the Deuce and Ad courts.

Wide Return Location Deuce Ct & Ad Ct: Return Depth = Short / Middle / Long

Wide Return Location Short Middle Deep
Ad Court 29.3% 47.8% 22.8%
Deuce Court 23.9% 49.7% 26.4%
Quite clearly, making first serves out wide in the Ad court (to a right hander’s backhand return) will bring a lot more short, attackable balls back in the service box for the server to feast on.

Deuce Court Wide Returns
Former World No. 1s Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are at either ends of the spectrum regarding return depth from the Deuce court. Out of the current Top 20, Nadal hit the most amount of short returns in the service box (his backhand return) at 31.8 per cent, while Djokovic hits the least, at only 17.9 per cent.

Deuce Court: Return Depth from Wide Serves

Ranking Player Short Middle Deep Total
7 Dominic Thiem 21.3% 45.1% 33.7% 315
13 Tomas Berdych 22.5% 47.2% 30.4% 632
4 Grigor Dimitrov 20.2% 50.3% 29.5% 461
6 Juan Martin Del Potro 24.4% 46.2% 29.4% 320
12 Novak Djokovic 17.9% 53.3% 28.8% 1404
16 Diego Schwartzman 27.4% 43.9% 28.7% 157
15 Roberto Bautista Agut 21.2% 50.7% 28.1% 288
1 Roger Federer 19.6% 52.8% 27.6% 815
17 John Isner 24.3% 48.1% 27.6% 536
19 Pablo Carreno Busta 18.6% 54.0% 27.4% 113
8 Kevin Anderson 20.9% 52.2% 26.9% 364
20 Nick Kyrgios 18.7% 54.5% 26.8% 198
11 Jack Sock 23.9% 49.7% 26.4% 318
10 Lucas Pouille 26.5% 47.7% 25.8% 132
9 David Goffin 21.3% 53.9% 24.8% 408
3 Marin Cilic 23.5% 52.8% 23.7% 443
18 Fabio Fognini 23.7% 53.2% 23.1% 363
5 Alexander Zverev 30.5% 47.3% 22.3% 256
2 Rafael Nadal 31.8% 46.2% 22.1% 1395
14 Sam Querrey 30.0% 49.3% 20.7% 213
- AVERAGE 23.8% 50.3% 25.9% 7723
Dominic Thiem hit the highest amount of deep returns, at 33.7 per cent, while Sam Querrey struggled the most to get Deuce court forehand returns deep, averaging only 20.7 per cent.

Ad Court Wide Returns
Djokovic was also the peak performer in keeping his first serve returns out of the service box in the Ad court, only hitting 21.6 per cent of his returns there. The Serb also hit the most amount in the deep section (28.9%), followed by Kevin Anderson (26.9%), Grigor Dimitrov (26.4%) and Dominic Thiem (26.1%).

Ad Court: Return Depth from Wide Serves

Ranking Player Short Middle Deep Total
12 Novak Djokovic 21.6% 49.5% 28.9% 1163
8 Kevin Anderson 26.9% 46.2% 26.9% 320
4 Grigor Dimitrov 25.6% 48.0% 26.4% 473
7 Dominic Thiem 27.9% 46.0% 26.1% 398
9 David Goffin 23.2% 51.1% 25.7% 323
18 Fabio Fognini 26.9% 47.4% 25.6% 386
13 Tomas Berdych 26.4% 48.6% 25.0% 591
17 John Isner 26.0% 49.2% 24.8% 508
1 Roger Federer 26.4% 50.2% 23.4% 1163
3 Marin Cilic 31.1% 46.0% 22.9% 402
14 Sam Querrey 37.6% 39.9% 22.5% 258
6 Juan Martin Del Potro 30.2% 47.9% 21.9% 388
16 Diego Schwartzman 28.7% 50.0% 21.3% 136
2 Rafael Nadal 34.7% 44.4% 20.9% 759
11 Jack Sock 33.5% 46.1% 20.4% 358
10 Lucas Pouille 28.7% 51.2% 20.0% 160
5 Alexander Zverev 30.8% 49.8% 19.4% 227
15 Roberto Bautista Agut 32.0% 48.8% 19.2% 291
19 Pablo Carreno Busta 33.1% 49.2% 17.8% 118
20 Nick Kyrgios 34.9% 47.4% 17.8% 152
- AVERAGE 29.3% 47.8% 22.8% 8574
What’s the action plan from this insightful new data? Make sure you have got a solid wide first serve in the Ad court to take advantage of short backhand returns, and if you are on the receiving side of the equation, add a little more height to your Ad court return to give it the extra wings it needs to make it deep back near the baseline.

Rafael Nadal is essentially the same server on clay courts and hard courts. It’s the returning side of the game on clay where beast mode kicks in for the Spaniard.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Nadal identifies that his serve metrics remarkably stay similar when he switches surfaces, from hard to clay. Our impression is that everything dramatically improves on clay, but that’s simply not the case.

Nadal Serving
The following serve metrics show just how close his career serve numbers are between hard and clay.

Nadal's Career Serve Metrics: Hard Court vs Clay Court

Serving

Career Hard-Court Win Percentage & Ranking

Career Clay-Court Win Percentage & Ranking

Service Games Won

85.48% (18th)

84.53% (6th)

1st Serve Percentage

67.30% (11th)

70.75% (9th)

1st Serve Points Won

72.11% (167th)

70.33% (81st)

2nd Serve Points Won

57.44% (1st)

56.46% (1st)

Break Points Saved

66.38% (16th)

66.52% (6th)

What’s fascinating is that Nadal’s Service Games Won drops less than one percentage point (85.48% to 84.53%) when he moves from hard court to clay court.

It’s impressive to note that the Spaniard is the best in our sport at winning second-serve points on both hard court and clay court. That is due to his heavy slice delivery, and his ability to back it up with a potent Serve +1 forehand that immediately puts the returner on defence.

Nadal Returning
This is where the move from hard courts to clay courts has the most dramatic effect on Nadal’s game.

Returning

Career Hard-Court Win Percentage & Ranking

Career Clay-Court Win Percentage & Ranking

Return Games Won

29.26% (12th)

42.74% (1st)

1st Serve Return Points Won

31.62% (23rd)

39.71% (1st)

2nd Serve Return Points Won

53.99% (12th)

57.90% (1st)

Break Points Converted

42.39% (51st)

48.60% (2nd)

Nadal is spectacularly ranked first in three of the four return metrics on clay. He is second to Andrei Chesnokov in Break Points Converted, narrowly trailing 48.81 per cent to 48.60 per cent.

Nadal enjoys a massive leap in Return Games Won on clay, jumping more than 13 percentage points all the way up from 29.26 per cent to 42.74 per cent. For every 10 return games he plays on clay, the server wins about six, while Nadal wins four. This is the engine room of his clay-court dominance.


Overall, there is not one serve or return metric that Nadal has a superior career ranking on hard courts over clay courts. Step one for the Spaniard is to keep the serving side of the equation on clay as close as possible to his serving on hard. He has certainly achieved that. Step two is to put up unprecedented numbers when he returns serve.

When returning on clay, Nadal typically stands way back to let the speed of the serve slow down for greater return consistency and also to allow more time to deliver a full-blooded swing at the ball. He then looks to improve his court position up closer to the baseline as the point unfolds, looking to crush his forehand from locations all over the court.

Serving against Nadal on hard court is always challenging. Serving against him on clay is downright formidable.

The first quarter of the year is in the books. Here are five fresh faces who are enjoying a fast start to the 2018 season that you need to keep an eye on in the coming months.

This Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis focuses on players ranked in the Top 10 in specific serve and return categories whom you might not expect to be ranked that high.

1. Pierre-Hugues Herbert
No. 1 - Break Points Saved
No. 1 - Break Points Converted

The Frenchman, currently No. 80 in the ATP Rankings, is 10-8 on the season, including a solid run to the Round of 16 at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells. Interestingly, he is 4-2 on the year against fellow Frenchmen, and has saved 72.36 per cent (89/123) of break points he has faced when serving. Amazingly, he also leads the Tour in 2018 in the other break point metric - break points converted when receiving. Herbert has converted 51.47 per cent (35/68) of break point opportunities in the first quarter of 2018.

2. Alex de Minaur
No. 5 – Second-Serve Points Won

The 19-year-old #NextGenATP Aussie has won an impressive 55 per cent (192/349) of his second-serve points through 14 matches (8-6) so far this year. He currently is at his career-best ATP Ranking of No. 114, primarily off the back of reaching the semi-finals of the Brisbane International presented by Suncorp and the final of the Sydney International in January, a run that included six victories over Top 50 opponents.

3. Nicolas Jarry
No. 9 - Service Games Won

The 22-year-old Chilean went 14-7 in the first quarter, reaching the finals of the Brasil Open, the semis of the Rio Open presented by Claro, and the quarter-finals of the Ecuador Open. Jarry turned 22 at the end of last year, and his 6’6” frame has helped him win 86.21 per cent (209/241) of his service games so far in 2018. Jarry started the year ranked No. 113, and has shot up to World No. 64 after the first three months.

4. Andrey Rublev
No. 1 – Second-Serve Return Points Won

The #NextGenATP Russian leads the Tour in this critical metric, winning 55.78 per cent (328/588) of second-serve points so far this season. The 20-year-old is ranked second in Return Games Won, winning 30.95 per cent (65/210). Rublev started 2018 on a tear, reaching the final of the Qatar ExxonMobil Open, and the Australian Open third round.

5. Kevin Anderson
No 1 - Aces hit

Anderson typically trails players such as Ivo Karlovic, John Isner and Milos Raonic in the aces department. Not so this year. Anderson has stuck 373 aces so far in 22 matches to be almost 100 aces ahead of Karlovic (281). His favorite target is down the T, with 124 struck there in both Deuce and Ad courts, and 99 hit out wide.

Anderson: 2018 Ace Direction

Deuce Court Wide = 57
Deuce Court T = 68
Ad Court Wide = 31
Ad Court T = 56

Not every match goes according to plan for the ATP World Tour’s best. And when it doesn’t, you will not be surprised to find out which players rise to the occasion and find a way to win regardless.

According to the FedEx ATP Performance Zone, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer and Andy Murray, four players who have reached the top spot of the ATP Rankings, lead active players in the rate of matches won after losing the first set. Kei Nishikori, who has climbed as high as World No. 4, is fifth on the list.

The common misconception is that the best do not face adversity. Take Federer, for example — the Swiss went 92-5 in a historic 2006 season. The right-hander lost the first set nine times that year, but he came from a set down to win eight of those matches. His only loss came 12 years ago this week at the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters against Rafael Nadal, who has won the tournament 10 times.

Each member of the ‘Big Four’ has won at least 100 tour-level matches after losing the first set, with them all capturing over 41 per cent of matches in which they stumbled in the opener. Nadal leads the way (42.5%), Djokovic is right behind (42.2%), with Federer (41.3%) and Murray (41.1%) rounding out the Top 4. Their next closest competitor in the category is Nishikori (37.5%), who came back from a set down Monday in Monte-Carlo to oust No. 12 seed Tomas Berdych.


There are many excellent players who have not won nine tour-level titles in their entire careers, but the ‘Big Four’ have all come from a set down at least 10 times in championship matches. Federer paces the group (15) with Djokovic (12), Murray (11) and Nadal (9) all showing their resolve under pressure. The first seven times Nadal lost the first set in a final, he went on to raise the trophy.

'Big Four' After Losing First Set In Tour-Level Finals

Player Win Rate (Record)
Andy Murray 40.7% (11-16)
Novak Djokovic 32.4% (12-25)
Roger Federer 28.8% (15-37)
Rafael Nadal 25.7% (9-26)
There has only been one player in ATP World Tour and Grand Slam championship history to win more than they lost despite dropping the first set. That champion is Rod Laver, who triumphed 50.4 per cent of the time (70-69) under the circumstances. And another name you won’t be surprised to hear is Spaniard David Ferrer, who is tied with Jimmy Connors for the most all-time victories after losing the first set (129).

Finding ways to win after a slow start has been especially important over the past year, as illustrated by Federer’s ascent to the top spot of the ATP Rankings before Nadal re-took the position two weeks ago. Federer has thrived after losing the opening set since this time last year, winning eight of those 11 matches to lead the ATP World Tour. Five of the Top 10 in the ATP Rankings are also in the Top 10 in this department.

Winning After Losing The First Set In The Past 52 Weeks

Player Win Rate (Record) Player Win Rate (Record)
1. Roger Federer 72.7% (8-3) 6. Kevin Anderson 41.4% (12-17)
T2. Nicolas Jarry 53.8% (7-6) 7. Juan Martin del Potro 40.9%(9-13)
T2. Kei Nishikori 53.8%(7-6) 8. David Goffin 39.3%(11-17)
4. Fabio Fognini 45.5% (15-18) 9. Adrian Mannarino 37.9% (11-18)
5. Leonardo Mayer 44.4% (8-10) 10. Denis Shapovalov 36.8% (7-12)
But nobody has come out victorious more after losing the opening set over the past 52 weeks than Italian Fabio Fognini, who has done so 15 times at a rate of 45.5 per cent.

“If you lose the first set, you must keep battling to get back into the match. It’s rare for an opponent to play without fault, so I have tried over the past 12 months to focus on the positives from losing the set, however small – whether it is success on my serve or return or how I move," Fognini told ATPWorldTour.com. "An opponent will often expect you to find a way back and at the end of a set, when you sit down. It’s interesting as the winner or loser of the set. At the highest level, only a handful of points matter in re-taking momentum.”

So for all players, professional or recreational, don’t get down if you lose the first set. There is still plenty of tennis to be played.