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Have you ever wondered how Rafael Nadal’s clay record compares to Roger Federer’s grass record or Novak Djokovic's hard-court record? The FedEx ATP Performance Zone sheds some light...
Nadal's record on clay - winning 91.69 per cent of matches he plays - eclipses the records of Djokovic on hard courts (84.02 per cent) and Federer on grass courts (86.86 per cent). Incredibly, no player has less than a 75 per cent winning mark on clay, hard or grass courts over the course of their illustrious careers.
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Below, ATPWorldTour.com breaks down how Nadal, Djokovic and Federer compare on clay, hard and grass courts.
CLAY COLOSSI
Nadal, the undisputed 'King of Clay' since 2005, has captured an Open Era record 51 crowns on red dirt, including nine times at Roland Garros, 10 times at the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters and on 10 occasions at the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell. The Spaniard compiled an 81-match winning streak on clay between 11 April 2005 and 20 May 2007.
Player W-L Record Winning % Titles Events Played Titles Per Event Played
Rafael Nadal (ESP) 375-34 91.69% 51 87 58.62%
Novak Djokovic (SRB) 178-44 80.18% 13 53 24.53%
Roger Federer (SUI) 214-68 75.89% 11 75 14.67%
View Career Clay-Court FedEx ATP Win-Loss Index
HARD-COURT HEROES
Djokovic has won 22 of his record 30 ATP World Tour Masters 1000 trophies on hard courts. The Serbian has won more titles (37) than he's lost matches (35) on hard courts since 2011. Federer, who has won 63 of his 89 titles on hard courts, compiled a 56-match-winning streak on hard courts between 17 February 2005 and 5 March 2006.
Player W-L Record Winning % Titles Events Played Titles Per Event Played
Novak Djokovic (SRB) 510-97 84.02% 51 140 36.43%
Roger Federer (SUI) 687-140 83.07% 63 199 31.66%
Rafael Nadal (ESP) 400-122 76.63% 16 133 12.03%
View Career Hard-Court FedEx ATP Win-Loss Index
GRASS-COURT GREATS
Federer has won an Open Era record 15 grass-court titles, which includes seven at Wimbledon and eight at the Gerry Weber Open in Halle. The Swiss won a record 65 consecutive grass-court matches between 10 June 2003 and 6 July 2008. Over the course of his career, Federer has won 86.86 per cent of his grass-court matches he played and 39.47 per cent of lawn tournaments.
Player W-L Record Winning % Titles Events Played Titles Per Event Played
Roger Federer (SUI) 152-23 86.86% 15 38 39.47%
Novak Djokovic (SRB) 69-16 81.18% 3 18 16.67%
Rafael Nadal (ESP) 58-17 77.33% 4 21 19.05%
Djokovic’s consistency of performance in hard, clay and grass-court matches since his first great year in 2011, has helped him compile a 49-16 record in title matches over the past six years. With 67 crowns overall since turning pro in 2003, he has lifted a trophy almost once every three tournaments (31.8 per cent) he has played (211 events).
Nadal, who has won the fifth-most titles in the Open Era (since April 1968) with 71 crowns – 51 of which have come on his beloved clay courts, has sunk his teeth into silverware at 29.5 per cent of events he has played. Federer, by comparison, with a 1,099-246 match record and third on the Open Era titles list with 91 trophies*, wins a title 28.5 per cent of events he has entered (312).
View Career Hard-Court FedEx ATP Win-Loss Index
OVERALL COMPARISON - HARD, CLAY, GRASS TOURNAMENTS
Player Titles Events Played Titles Per Event Played
Novak Djokovic (SRB) 67 211 31.8%
Rafael Nadal (ESP) 71 241 29.5%
Roger Federer (SUI) 89* 312 28.5%
* Federer has 91 titles in total, two titles came on carpet, which were not included in the individual breakdowns.
- Statistical research courtesy Graham Edgar

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers shows how Zverev has been strong on serve this year.
Imagine only having to win the first point of your service game, and you are basically a lock to hold.
That was Alexander Zverev in Rome last week. Zverev, 20, won the Internazionali BNL d’Italia - his first ATP World Tour Masters 1000 title, and third overall title this season.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Zverev’s maiden Masters uncovers complete dominance on serve on the clay courts at the Foro Italico.
Zverev had 68 service games in six matches in Rome. Almost 80 per cent of the time (54), he surged ahead 15/0. Of the 54 service games where he reached 15/0, he won 52 of them. That 96 per cent win rate was higher than his 2017 season average of 92 per cent. Just one point and the game is pretty much done and dusted.
Zverev’s 6’6” (198cm) frame is built for serving. He is tall, yet speedy around the court. He is lithe, yet has massive power at his disposal from his long levers.
Of the 14 times he fell behind 0/15, he won 80 per cent (11/14) of those service games. He only fell behind 0/30 five times, winning four of those games. If he got ahead 30/0, which he did 37 times, he won every single one of these service games.
Zverev’s second serve is an obvious area of improvement in his rise up the Emirates ATP Rankings.
Zverev second serve points won:
2015 = 47% (493/1041)
2016 = 50% (1088/2156)
2017 = 56% (550/979)
2017 Rome = 61% (73/120)


Zverev’s first serve is emerging as one of the best shots in the game. His 2017 season average for first serves made is 63 per cent. But when Zverev faced 14 break points in Rome, he made a first serve 71 per cent of the time. The ability to elevate under pressure is already a hallmark of his game.
In the deuce court, he made two of three first serves on break point, and made eight of 11 in the ad court. He won 60 per cent (6/10) of break points behind his first serve, and 75 per cent (3/4) behind his second serve.
What’s fascinating is that Zverev is actually putting up better return numbers than on his serve in the past 52 weeks. He is ranked 25th best on the ATP Stats Serve LEADERBOARD, powered by Infosys Nia Data, and 18th best returning.
Zverev is eighth best on tour converting break points in the past 52 weeks at 44.8 per cent. He was true to form in Rome, winning 45.2 per cent (19/42) of his break points. Overall in Rome, Zverev won 55.6 per cent (466/838) of total points - a significant jump over his 2017 season average of 52.1 per cent (2784/5339).
His Rome numbers send an ominous warning to the rest of the tour. If he can keep that up for a full season, that’s right where the World No. 1 ends up in total points won.

How does a player get a hot hand? A study of the past two Roland Garros champions, Novak Djokovic (2016) and Stan Wawrinka (2015), identifies obscure yet fascinating areas of their games that they improved in Paris to capture the sport's prized clay-court Grand Slam title.
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An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Djokovic at Roland Garros in 2016, and Wawrinka in 2015, uncovers 10 areas that saw them perform much better than their season average in each year.

Roland Garros 2016 - Novak Djokovic

1. Serving at 0/15 (73% won)
Djokovic fell behind 0/15 30 times on serve at Roland Garros in 2016. He won the 0/15 point 73 per cent (22/30) of the time, which was higher than his 2016 season average of 69 per cent. The eight times he did fall behind 0/30 at Roland Garros, he won his serve on only one occasion.

2. First Serve Percentage Down Break Point (70%)
Djokovic faced 43 break points at Roland Garros in 2016. He made 70 per cent (30/43) first serves, which was five percentage points (65 per cent) higher than his season average. At Roland Garros, he made 73 per cent (8/11) in the deuce court, and 69 per cent (22/32) in the ad court.

3. Second Serve Points Won (60%)
Djokovic won a dominant 60 per cent (120/199) of his second-serve points in Paris last year. His career average in this specific area on clay is 54 per cent (3,073/5,669), while his 2016 season all-surfaces average was 56 per cent. The career leader of second-serve points won on clay is Rafael Nadal, at 56 per cent (4,358/7,765).

4. Total Return Points Won (49%)
Djokovic actually won fewer service points (67 per cent to 66 per cent) at Roland Garros compared to his season average. But on the return side, he improved from a season average of 44 per cent (2,498/5,657) to a mind-blowing 49 per cent (335/689).

5. First Serve Return Points Won (42%)
Djokovic is 19th in the career averages list of first-serve return points won at 36 per cent (3,807/10,517). Overall in the 2016 season he was at 35 per cent (1,185/3,413). This part of his game caught fire at Roland Garros last year, winning a staggering 42 per cent (175/418) of first-serve return points.

Roland Garros 2015 - Stan Wawrinka

1. Break Points Saved (82%)
Wawrinka found himself down break point 51 times at Roland Garros in 2015. He saved an astounding 82 per cent (42/51) of them, which was way up from his 2015 season average of 68 per cent (288/426).

2. Holding After Breaking Serve (97%)
When Wawrinka broke serve, he did an excellent job of holding serve in the following game. Wawrinka held serve 30 of 31 times (97 per cent) in this specific situation, which was up from his 2015 season average of 90 per cent (179/198).

3. Receiving With New Balls (42%)
Serving with fresh balls always seems to be a psychological advantage for the server. In the 2015 season, Wawrinka broke serve 20 per cent of the time (21/106) when facing new balls. But that percentage more than doubled at Roland Garros, as he broke serve 42 per cent (5/12) when facing new balls.

4. Breaking After Losing Serve (56%)
The disappointment of losing serve can make it tough to break straight back. In 2015, Wawrinka broke straight back after losing serve 24 per cent (31/130) of the time. At Roland Garros, he got straight back on the horse, breaking 56 per cent (5/9) of the time.

5. Breaking from 0/40 (100%)
Wawrinka finished what he started when returning at Roland Garros in 2015. Ten times he got his opponent to 0/40 on serve, and 10 times he broke. In the 2016 season he was at 90 per cent (45/50), and from the start of the 2015 season up to Madrid earlier this month, he broke serve just 76 per cent (105/139) of the time after building a 0/40 lead returning.

The growth of match analytics in tennis provides us with new insights into what actually matters to winning. It also helps us better organise the practise court at all levels of the game.
Forehands and backhands typically dominate practice, as shot tolerance and repetition are developed. Serving also gets attention, as does transitioning to the net to finish with volleys and overheads.
What gets left behind? The return of serve.
The return of serve is without doubt the least practised shot in tennis, but it is a trademark of the best players in the game. There is a disconnect between how often this specific shot is practised, and how obviously important it is to winning tennis matches.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 players identifies the return of serve – particularly in the ad court – as something that should take much more of the spotlight on the practice court.
In the 2017 season leading into Roland Garros, more than three out of four break points were competed in the ad court by the Top 10.
Ad Court Break Points = 76%
Deuce Court Break Points = 24%
It stands to reason that these metrics should directly be reflected on the practice court. They are clearly not. When returns are being practised, players all over the world naturally gravitate to where games begin – in the deuce court.
Top 10 2017 Season: Break Points Won Receiving in the Deuce Court / Ad Court
#
Player
Deuce Court Won
Deuce Court Total
Deuce Court %
Ad Court Won
Ad Court Total
Ad Court %
1
Andy Murray
22
41
53.7%
65
142
45.8%
2
Novak Djokovic
25
49
51.0%
57
126
45.2%
3
Stan Wawrinka
17
50
34.0%
59
161
36.6%
4
Rafael Nadal
28
77
36.4%
114
270
42.2%
5
Roger Federer
19
40
47.5%
52
124
41.9%
6
Milos Raonic
15
32
46.9%
40
104
38.5%
7
Dominic Thiem
24
68
35.3%
105
231
45.5%
8
Marin Cilic
12
45
26.7%
54
162
33.3%
9
Kei Nishikori
22
59
37.3%
81
176
46.0%
10
Alexander Zverev
18
51
35.3%
80
163
49.1%

TOTAL
202
512
39.5%
707
1659
42.6%
Six out of the Top 10 have a superior win percentage returning in the ad court compared to the deuce court. Kei Nishikori's break point conversion is 8.7 points better on the ad court (46%) than the deuce court (37.3). But two players do more than 10 percentage points better in the ad court.
Dominic Thiem, who has earned more break point chances this year than any other player except Rafael Nadal, converts a satisfactory 35.3 per cent of break chances in the deuce court, but that increases to an impressive 45.5 per cent in the ad court.
#NextGenATP star Alexander Zverev leads the way in 2017, converting 49.1 per cent of his break points in the ad court – a 13.8 percentage point increase over his deuce court average.
Zverev won his first ATP World Tour Masters 1000 title in Rome last month, playing 83 per cent (35/42) of his break points when returning in the ad court. He converted 46 per cent (16/35) in the ad court, and 43 per cent (3/7) in the deuce court.
World No. 1 Andy Murray leads the Top 10 in break points won from the deuce court in 2017, winning 53.7 per cent (22/41), with Rafael Nadal seeing the most (77), and winning 36.4 per cent (28/77) of them.
Infosys Nia Data identified that the Top 10 on average perform better on break points when returning from the Ad court.
Ad Court: Break Points Converted = 42.6%
Deuce Court: Break Points Converted = 39.5%
These numbers are significant for players at all levels of the game. We would be wise to substitute endless grinding with more return work, particularly in the ad court.

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers shows how Nadal has improved an already impressive feature of his game so far this season
The typical way to improve in tennis is to turn weaknesses into strengths. There is also a second way, which focuses on taking strengths to a whole new level.
Case in point: Rafael Nadal’s second serve.
Nadal is already the career leader on the ATP World Tour with second-serve points won at 57.1 per cent (12,931/22,657), edging recognised power servers such as Andy Roddick and John Isner in this specific category.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Nadal’s 2017 season reveals he is simply blowing his already peerless career average right out of the water.

The Spaniard is winning an astounding 61.9 per cent (628/1015) of his second-serve points so far this season, which has helped catapult him to first place in the Emirates ATP Race To London.
See Who's Pushing Nadal In The Emirates ATP Race To London
The table below identifies that Nadal’s 2017 season to date is superior to any of the past 10 seasons in points won behind second serves.
Past 10 Seasons: Most Second-Serve Points Won
Year
Player
Win Percentage
2017 (so far)
Rafael Nadal
61.9%
2016
Novak Djokovic
56.4%
2015
Novak Djokovic
60.2%
2014
Roger Federer
57.8%
2013
Novak Djokovic
59.6%
2012
Roger Federer
59.9%
2011
Roger Federer
57.1%
2010
Rafael Nadal
59.5%
2009
Andy Roddick
57.2%
2008
Rafael Nadal
60.1%
2007
Roger Federer
59.0%

Break Points

Infosys Nia Data identifies that Nadal’s improved second-serve metrics are also helping him save a higher percentage of break points. The Spaniard is sixth best overall with break points saved in 2017 at 69 per cent, with not a lot of difference when he starts the point with a first serve or a second serve. He is saving 70.6 per cent (108/153) of break points behind his first serve, and 64.2 per cent (34/53) behind his second serve.

Break Points Saved – Behind A First Serve
2017 = 70.6% (108/153)
2016 = 68.6% (162/236)
2015 = 67.8% (202/298)

Break Points Saved – Behind A Second Serve
2017 = 64.2% (34/53)
2016 = 52.5% (32/61)
2015 = 48.8% (62/127)
Roland Garros: Second Serves
During the Roland Garros final against Stan Wawrinka, Nadal’s average second-serve speed was 154 km/h (96 mph), with his fastest coming in at 164 km/h (102 mph). Nadal won an impressive 65 per cent (15/23) of his second-serve points in the final, which was far superior to the tournament average for all players, 51 per cent (5,452/10,727).
Overall for the tournament, Nadal won 74 per cent of his second-serve points, which was superior to his win percentage behind his first serve, 72 per cent.

Wimbledon: Second Serves

Nadal’s focus now turns to Wimbledon, where second-serve performance will be critical on the lush grass courts at SW19. When Nadal last won The Championships, back in 2010, he won 64 per cent (18/28) of second-serve points in the final against Tomas Berdych, and 62 per cent (140/226) overall for the tournament.
When he won Wimbledon for the first time in 2008, he won 59 per cent (35/59) of his second-serve points in the final against Roger Federer, and 63 per cent (127/202) overall.

What are Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal doing better than anyone else this year?
Second serves.
Federer and Nadal are the first two players to book their spots at the Nitto ATP Finals, to be held 12-19 November at The O2 in London. The two all-time greats have already qualified by winning a combined nine titles this season, including all three Grand Slam events.

Nadal leads the Emirates ATP Race To London with 7,095 points to Federer’s 6,545 points. Dominic Thiem is currently in third place, well back with 3,345 points.
See Who's Pushing Nadal, Federer In Emirates ATP Race To London
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis identifies that Federer and Nadal both appear in the Top 10 in 2017 in four specific strategy categories, with second-serve performance being the combined best.
2017 Season: Nadal & Federer Strategy Rankings
Strategy
Rafael Nadal
Roger Federer
Second-Serve Points Won
1st (61%)
2nd (60%)
First-Serve Return Points Won
1st 36%
8th (33%)
Service Games Won
7th (89%)
2nd (92%)
Break Points Saved
4th (69%)
5th (69%)
Return Games Won
2nd (34%)
17th (26%)
First-Serve Percentage
3rd (69%)`
25th (63%)
Second-Serve Return Points Won
3rd (56%)
21st (50%)
First-Serve Points Won
25th (73%)
4th (80%)
Pinpointing where Nadal and Federer have excelled this season is valuable information for the rest of the tour, as it shows exactly how they've climbed to the top. Although Nadal and Federer employ different game styles from the back of the court, it’s clear that owning the second-serve battleground has helped both of them win more matches.

Nadal and Federer are both ranked in the Top 10 in the following four strategy areas:
Second-Serve Points Won
First-Serve Return Points Won
Service Games Won
Break Points Saved
Nadal is amazingly ranked in the top three in five categories, including No. 1 in Second-Serve Points Won and First-Serve Return Points Won. The Spaniard is second in Return Games Won. Federer is ranked second in Second-Serve Points Won and Service Games Won.
Should players at all levels of the game focus more on these areas as well? It certainly wouldn’t hurt, especially since the return of serve is by far the least practised shot in our sport.
Federer found another level at Wimbledon this year with his second serve, bumping up his already high season average of 60 per cent won to a ridiculously high 67 per cent (119/178). At 2017 Roland Garros, Nadal won an even higher percentage, 74 per cent (112/151), of second-serve points as he powered to a 10th title in Paris.
Second serves don’t get the attention and love they deserve on the practice court, but come match day, they are a critical component of ultimately securing victory. Just ask Roger and Rafa.

On the most demanding of surfaces, Roger Federer has been pre-eminent this year. The World No. 3 leads the year-to-date Win-Loss Index with the best winning percentage on cement with a 23-2 (.920) record ahead of the US Open, the final Grand Slam championship of the year. His two losses have come at the hands of Russian Evgeny Donskoy at the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships in February and #NextGenATP German Alexander Zverev at the Coupe Rogers in Montreal earlier this month.
The Swiss, just like second-placed Grigor Dimitrov – with an ATP World Tour-best 24-6 mark (.800) on hard courts – has won three titles on the surface this year. While 63 of Federer’s 93 career crowns have come on hard courts, Dimitrov has captured five of his seven trophies on cement. The Bulgarian is 34-14 overall (.708) in 2017.
Federer’s form suggests that he enters the US Open, the final Grand Slam championship of the year, as the favourite to add to his 2004-2008 crowns. He has a 35-3 match record this season (.921), including five titles (two majors) from six finals.

Andy Murray is 12-3 (.800) on hard courts, matching the 2017 mark of the sidelined Novak Djokovic. Nick Kyrgios, who finished runner-up to Dimitrov in the recent Western & Southern Open final in Cincinnati, is 26-12 on the season (.684) – predominantly made up of a 23-7 record (.767) on hard courts.
Milos Raonic, who reached the US Open fourth round in 2012-14, is 13-4 (.765) on hard courts in 2017, while World No. 1 Rafael Nadal, the ATP World Tour match wins leader this year with a 49-9 mark (.845), is 22-7 (.759) on cement. The 2010 and 2013 US Open champion has won 16 of his 73 career trophies on hard courts.
The 20-year-old Zverev will be looking to improve upon his second-round exit in New York City last year, boosted by his solid form in 2017 that has reaped five titles and a 46-14 match record. He is 21-7 (.750) on hard courts this year, with four of his six career titles won on the surface.

All or nothing. Ace or double fault. Sometimes break points are decided without the returner even touching the ball.
Facing break points are inevitable at all levels of the game, with the server having to balance the aggression of a potential ace with the possibility of missing both serves and committing a double fault.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 20 players reveals a wide range of results in this important moment in a match, with the statistics dating from the beginning of the 2015 season to the 2017 US Open.
John Isner is the only player in the current Top 20 to hit more than 100 aces on break points during the two-and-a-half-year period. He blasted 133 aces when facing break point, while yielding just 33 double faults. That created a positive differential of 110 more aces than double faults to also lead the Top 20 in that category as well.
Remarkably, Isner averaged an ace on one out of every four break points he faced since the beginning of the 2015 season, really stepping up his game in this pressure situation. At the same time, he only committed a double fault once out of every 23 break points - an outstanding ratio that makes him the best server in our game at the moment.
Isner tops the ATP Stats Serve Leaderboards in the past 52 weeks with a 316.1 rating, slightly ahead of Ivo Karlovic, who is currently positioned at No. 38 in the Emirates ATP Rankings.
Other accomplished servers, such as Marin Cilic, Milos Raonic, Nick Kyrgios and Tomas Berdych, were all in the top five in the differential between aces and double faults.
Interestingly, there were only two players that held their double faults to single digits in this critical moment in a match. The leader was Roger Federer, only hitting a double fault seven times when facing break point in over two and a half years. The other was Raonic, with nine.
Alexander Zverev’s game has matured a lot during this period, moving from outside the Top 100 into the Top 10. He combined 52 aces on break points with 46 double faults since the beginning of the 2015 season, to have a positive differential of plus six. Jack Sock came out even in this analysis, hitting 41 double faults and 41 aces on break point.
Overall, the current Top 20 averaged hitting 31 more aces than double faults in the past two and a half years. Stepping up in these clutch moments is a trademark of their game.

Your heart skips a beat when you see your opponent is ranked in the Top 10 in the Emirates ATP Rankings. It’s equal parts opportunity and fear. What a great win it could be, but how likely are you to actually get the W?
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the Top 10 ranked players show that on average they win three out of every four matches they play. They are dominant, but they also do lose matches just like the rest of us.
The current Top 10 players have won 75 per cent (370/496) of their matches so far this season, which is exactly the same win percentage for the Top 10 in the 2016 year-end Emirates ATP Rankings.

Roger Federer has the highest match win percentage this season, winning 91 per cent of the time. The only other two players at 80 per cent or higher are Rafael Nadal (86 per cent) and Novak Djokovic (80 per cent).
Emirates ATP Race To Milan leader, Alexander Zverev, is the only other player above the Top 10 average, having won 76 per cent of his matches in 2017.
The next best include Andy Murray (71 per cent), Stan Wawrinka (70 per cent), Grigor Dimitrov (70 per cent), Dominic Thiem (69 per cent), Marin Cilic (67 per cent), and Pablo Carreno Busta (65 per cent).
Players at all levels of the game are often intimidated by facing highly-ranked opponents. Sometimes the match is over before it even begins as the possibility of victory seems too daunting.
Competing against a Top 10 opponent can also have the completely opposite effect, releasing pressure since the expectation of victory is so low. We all seem to play better against somebody who is better than us, primarily because the pressure to win isn't overwhelming.
Over the years, some players have managed to find another gear against Top 10 opponents, elevating their performance against the best of the best. They are able to rise to the moment and perform at a higher level on the biggest stage. The following table highlights players who are career leaders in specific categories against only Top 10 ranked opponents.

Year-End No. 1
Of all the players that finished year-end No. 1 from 1991 to 2016, Roger Federer and Lleyton Hewitt performed best against Top 10 opponents, according to the Infosys ATP Stats LEADERBOARDS Serve, Return and Under Pressure Ratings.
Year-End No. 1 Leader versus Top 10 Opponents
Best Serve Rating (297.3) = Roger Federer, 2004 season
Best Return Rating (178. = Lleyton Hewitt, 2001 season
Best Break Points Saved (79.1%) = Roger Federer, 2004 season
Best Break Points Converted (51.4%) = Lleyton Hewitt, 2001 season
Defeating a Top 10 player first starts in the mind. Do you see the match with trepidation or opportunity? They will lose one out of every four matches they play. That one may as well be against you.

40/30 seems like a very competitive point score, with the returner already capturing two points and being just three points from breaking serve.
But don’t be fooled: It’s still one-way traffic for the server.
Even though the returner has won 40 per cent (two of five) of the points played so far in the game, his chance of breaking serve is still less than 10 per cent.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 players in the Emirates ATP Rankings shows that, since the start of the 2015 season, they have held serve from 40/30 92.7 per cent (6331/6826) of the time.
The player who has been the toughest to break when leading 40/30 on serve is Roger Federer, who has held a dominant 95.4 per cent (535/561) of the time from this seemingly competitive point score.
Current Top 10: Holding from 40/30 since the start of the 2015 season
Ranking
Player
40/30 Points Won
Total 40/30 Points
Hold Percentage
1
Roger Federer
535
561
95.4%
2
Marin Cilic
596
630
94.6%
3
Novak Djokovic
697
742
93.9%
4
Andy Murray
703
756
93.0%
5
Alexander Zverev
605
653
92.6%
6
Rafael Nadal
634
686
92.4%
7
Stan Wawrinka
686
743
92.3%
8
Dominic Thiem
719
780
92.2%
9
Grigor Dimitrov
611
666
91.7%
10
Pablo Carreno Busta
545
609
89.5%
-
AVERAGE
6331
6826
92.7%
Federer: Past Three Seasons Holding From 40/30
2017 = 96.3% (157/163)
2016 = 95.5% (107/112)
2015 = 94.7% (271/286)
Even worse news for his opponents: Federer has slightly improved in this specific category during the past three seasons. This year, he's led 40/30 during 163 service games and has lost only six of those games. Opponents must feel like they are getting closer to capturing Federer’s serve, but in reality, they are farther away from breaking than they were at 0/0.
Infosys Nia Data shows that in 2017 Federer is holding serve 91 per cent of the time, but at 40/30, he is holding 96.3 per cent (157/163) of the time. The returner winning two points in the service game doesn’t trump the fact that Federer needs just one more point to hold. When the Swiss star has surged ahead 40/15 this season, his win percentage has elevated to a near-perfect 99.1 per cent (229/231).

Marin Cilic is the second best performer of current Top 10 players, holding serve from 40/30 94.6 per cent (596/630) of the time since the beginning of the 2015 season. Former World No. 1s Novak Djokovic (93.9 per cent) and Andy Murray (93 per cent) are third and fourth on the list, being the only other players to reach the 93 per cent mark.
Next are #NextGenATP German Alexander Zverev (92.6 per cent) and World No. 1 Rafael Nadal (92.4 per cent). Rounding out the Top 10 in this category include Stan Wawrinka (92.3 per cent), Dominic Thiem (92.2 per cent), Grigor Dimitrov (91.7 per cent) and Pablo Carreno Busta (89.5 per cent).
Practice Court
A fun practice drill for players at all levels of the game to complement this fascinating data would be to play a set where the server begins the game at 40/30. If the server drops serve, he instantly loses the set. The focus is on the business end of the game, with elevated pressure as fewer points are required to hold and break serve. It’s a fun way to work a five-setter into your afternoon on court.

One out of a hundred.
Ninety-nine players out of the Top 100 have a losing record holding serve in 2017 when falling behind 15/40. Only one player has won more than 50 per cent of his service games from this perilous point score.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the Top 100 players this week reveals that one player is World No. 1 Rafael Nadal. It’s an amazing achievement, considering the Spaniard does not possess a flame-thrower of a serve, or routinely ace his way out trouble. Nadal is ranked 33rd on tour this season in total aces hit at 278 from 75 matches – averaging 3.7 aces per match.


He is not the fastest server, and he does not enjoy as many free points on serve as other players. But Nadal has been mentally and strategically the best this season at dealing with the adversity and pressure of overcoming 15/40.
The Spaniard holds serve 50.7 per cent (37/73) of the time from that scoreline. Second place goes to Grigor Dimitrov, who is back to his career-high Emirates ATP Ranking of No. 8 this week and has a 40-17 record in 2017. Dimitrov has held serve 47.9 per cent (35/73) of the time from 15/40, just two service games back from Nadal.

Four Top 100 Groups: Holding Serve from 15/40
Players Ranked 1-25 = Held 33%
Players Ranked 26-50 = Held 28%
Players Ranked 51-75 = Held 27%
Players Ranked 76-100 = Held 24%
On average, the Top 100 have held serve from 15/40 28 per cent of the time this year. That immediately creates a drill for the practice court, where the server starts 10 service games from 15/40. If you can win three of them, then that’s right at the Top 100 average. If you can win half, then you know what it feels like to be the No. 1 player in the world.
Diego Schwartzman has faced 15/40 115 times this season, which is more than anyone else in the Top 100. He has held 24 times (20.9 per cent), which puts him in the bottom quarter of the Top 100.
Dominic Thiem has come back from 15/40 more than anyone else in the Top 100 so far in 2017, winning 47 out of 110 games. That places the Austrian at fourth best in the Top 100 at holding from 15/40.
The point score of 15/40 is all about overcoming adversity. Staying positive, being aggressive, and looking for a Serve +1 forehand to hit right after the serve are all hallmarks of Nadal’s prowess in this precarious position.

Damir Dzumhur is making a habit of converting break points better than anyone in the world this year as he powers up the Emirates ATP World Tour Rankings to a career-high No. 31 this week. Dzumhur, 25, from Bosnia-Herzegovina, has converted 47.8 per cent (213/445) of his break points from 55 matches in 2017 to lead all players in this key statistical area.
As a comparison, World No. 1, Rafael Nadal is converting 40.9 per cent (285/696) of his break points this season, and second-ranked Roger Federer is at 41.2 per cent (167/405).
2017: Dzumhur Break Point Conversion By Surface
• Grass = 62%. 13/21 from 4 matches.
• Clay = 51%. 27/53 from 9 matches.
• Hard = 47%. 173/371 from 45 matches.
The Bosnian has an impressive ATP Stats LEADERBOARD Return Rating of 162.5 from the past 52 weeks, making him the fifth best returner on tour during that period.
Past 52 Weeks: Dzumhur Infosys Return Ranking
• 1st - Break Points Converted (48.3%)
• 4th - 1st Serve Return Points Won (32.7%)
• 5th - Infosys Return Rating (162.5)
• 5th - Return Games Won (30.4%)
• 18th - 2nd Serve Return Points Won (51.1%)
Dzumhur has been in great form in recent weeks, winning two ATP World Tour 250 events out of his past five tournaments. He won his first ATP World Tour title at the St Petersburg Open in September, and then took out the VTB Kremlin Cup in Moscow last week. He is now an impressive 35-23 on the year.
Dzumhur was red-hot returning in St Petersburg, winning 56 per cent (24/43) of break points through five matches. He won a respectable 33 per cent (17/51) in winning Moscow last week.
It is clear to see from the table below that you can closely track Dzumhur’s climb up the rankings with his increased performance converting break points.
Past 3 Years: Break Points Converted/Ranking
• 2017 = 48% / Ranking No. 31
• 2016 = 45% / Ranking No. 77
• 2015 = 41% / Ranking No. 82
Dzumhur’s 5’9”, 154-pound frame may not be as tall and powerful as other players on tour, but it helps make him lightning fast around the court, and he has developed excellent counter-punching skills that are tailor-made for the return of serve. He is a “model” returner of pace, exhibiting amazing balance while absorbing and redirecting the power of the serve.
He is coming of age at 25 and his career is building towards a Top 20 breakthrough sometime in the near future. He also boasts a 2017 final in Winston-Salem, along with semi-final appearances in Shenzhen and Los Cabos. He entered the Top 50 just a month ago, and his development curve shows no signs of slowing down.

Deuce is normally a comfort zone for the server, where they hold around three out of every four visits to this extended-point score. Not so at the Next Gen ATP Finals in Milan this week. The new event is trialing several exciting innovations, including playing a sudden death point at deuce where the winner takes all.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the eight #NextGenATP players in the 2017 season has identified that this new scoring system will lead to more exciting pressure moments in the match, and the potential for more breaks of serve as a result.
The following table identifies the percentage chances for all eight players holding serve from deuce in 2017, and also from 30/40, where they are staring down break point. The new sudden death point will behave differently to 30/40, as both players will simultaneously hold game point, but it is a good guide as to how this new scoring system will play out.
2017 Season: Holding from deuce & 30/40
Ranking
Player
Holding from Deuce
Holding from 30/40
37
Andrey Rublev
65% (70/107)
42% (36/86)
45
Karen Khachanov
75% (113/151)
40% (51/129)
51
Denis Shapovalov
83% (39/47)
55% (23/42)
54
Hyeon Chung
79% (93/118)
48% (48/100)
48
Borna Coric
76% (109/144)
55% (58/106)
55
Jared Donaldson
66% (83/125)
38% (40/104)
65
Daniil Medvedev
72% (99/137)
41% (49/119)
306
Gianluigi Quinzi
91% (10/11)
73% (8/11)
-
AVERAGE
73% (616/840)
45% (313/697)
The hold percentage for the new sudden death point will probably sit somewhere in between the 73 per cent average holding at deuce, and the 45 per cent average holding at 30/40.
One thing is for certain - starting the sudden death point with a first serve will give the server a considerable advantage. The following table shows how well the eight players are doing in the 2017 season saving break points behind a first or second serve.
2017 Season: Saving Break Points Behind 1st & 2nd Serves
Ranking
Player
Holding Behind 1st Serve
Holding behind 2nd serve
37
Andrey Rublev
72% (114/159)
42% (44/105)
45
Karen Khachanov
75% (135/181)
42% (60/142)
51
Denis Shapovalov
83% (45/54)
44% (23/52)
54
Hyeon Chung
75% (100/133)
44% (53/121)
48
Borna Coric
76% (144/190)
52% (53/101)
55
Jared Donaldson
71% (118/166)
48% (61/128)
65
Daniil Medvedev
75% (139/185)
53% (76/143)
306
Gianluigi Quinzi
82% (14/17)
71% (10/14)
-
AVERAGE
75% (809/1085)
47% (380/806)
Canadian Denis Shapovalov has been the best performer this season at saving break points behind a first serve, at 83 per cent (45/54). But he falls below the #NextGenATP average of 47 per cent saving break points behind second serves, at 44 per cent (23/52).
The sudden death point is a staple on the ATP World Tour in doubles, and it brings more excitement to the end of a game with both players holding game point simultaneously. It will be fascinating to see how it plays out in Milan this week on the singles court with the best young talents in our sport.

In the controlled conditions of The O2 in London, venue of the Nitto ATP Finals, the eight singles qualifiers will pit their A-games against one another for one of the sport’s prestigious prizes. Three of the competitors — Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Alexander Zverev — have recorded five (or more) victories over Top 10 stars in the Emirates ATP Rankings.

Federer, the 2003-04, 2006-07 and 2010-11 Nitto ATP Finals champion, will be looking to add to his ATP World Tour-best seven titles in 2017 at the season finale, which begins on 12 November. The Swiss superstar is 11-1 (.917) against fellow Top 10 players in the Emirates ATP Rankings this year, with his lone loss coming to Zverev in the Coupe Rogers final in Montreal. He is 209-108 (.659) lifetime against elite players, and 52-12 at the season finale since his first qualification in 2002.

Nadal, the 2017 year-end No. 1 in the Emirates ATP Rankings, with six titles to his name in an exceptional season, aims to capture his first Nitto ATP Finals crown with a 12-5 record against Top 10 opponents over the past 11 months. He is 152-81 (.652) against Top 10 stars in his career. The Spanish superstar has finished as runner-up at the season finale in 2010 (l. to Federer) and 2013 (l. to Djokovic).

#NextGenATP German Zverev, making his debut at the season finale, has gone 6-5 versus Top 10 players in 2017 (.545) with five crowns — including two ATP World Tour Masters 1000 titles in Rome and Montreal. Dominic Thiem and Grigor Dimitrov (both 3-5, .375), and Marin Cilic and Jack Sock (both 2-4, .333) will also be looking to improve on their records against Top 10 peers under the dome.

LONDON CONTENDERS VERSUS TOP 10 OPPONENTS

PLAYER CAREER RECORD WINING PCT. 2017 RECORD WINNING PCT.
ROGER FEDERER (SUI) 209-108 .659 11-1 .917
RAFAEL NADAL (ESP) 152-81 .652 12-5 .706
ALEXANDER ZVEREV (GER) 10-14 .417 6-5 .545
MARIN CILIC (CRO) 28-67 .295 2-4 .333
DOMINIC THIEM (AUT) 9-23 .281 3-5 .375
JACK SOCK (USA) 7-20 .259 2-4 .333
GRIGOR DIMITROV (BUL) 16-51 .239 3-5 .375
DAVID GOFFIN (BEL) 8-36 .182 4-4 .500

Serve & Return Tracker gives fans new data to analyse
Where do you need to direct your serve to make the prestigious Nitto ATP Finals? It turns out that variety works very well, and out wide slightly edges down the T as the most dominant first serve location at the elite level of our game.
Breaking down first and second serves by targets and win percentages is a new metric now available at www.atpworldtour.com, in the Serve & Return Tracker under the Stats tab. The data comes from ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournaments and Nitto ATP Finals from 2011 to present.
View The Serve & Return Tracker
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of first serve location from the eight players at the Nitto ATP Finals reveals that both the wide and T serves are used as primary locations.
Deuce Court First Serve Location
At Masters 1000 tournaments this year, six of the eight players in London preferred to serve wide in the deuce court with their first serves, but they often delivered their first serve to the T as well.
Wide = 47.8%
T = 46.0%
Body = 6.2%
Interestingly, Marin Cilic served 73 more first serves wide than down the T, while Grigor Dimitrov was basically the opposite, serving 85 more first serves down the T than out wide.
Deuce Court First Serves During 2017 Masters 1000 Tournaments
#
Player
T
Body
Wide
1
Roger Federer
251
28
279
2
Alexander Zverev
312
57
326
3
Dominic Thiem
275
21
242
4
Marin Cilic
255
10
328
5
Grigor Dimitrov
337
17
252
6
David Goffin
303
28
344
7
Jack Sock
228
52
240
8
Pablo Carreno Busta
86
62
116
-
TOTAL
2047
275
2127

AVERAGE
46.0%
6.2%
47.8%
Ad Court First Serve Location
Players also mixed up their first serve location in the Ad court.
Wide = 46.1%
T = 45.9%
Body = 8.0%
Alexander Zverev liked the T a lot more than wide in the Ad court, serving 67 more first serves right down the middle of the court than out wide. Dimitrov loved the T serve a lot in the deuce court, but when he switches to the Ad court, his primary position switches to wide. Dimitrov hit 69 more first serves wide than down the T on this side.
Ad Court First Serves During 2017 Masters 1000 Tournaments
#
Player
T
Body
Wide
1
Roger Federer
213
21
216
2
Alexander Zverev
303
61
236
3
Dominic Thiem
222
32
276
4
Marin Cilic
262
25
248
5
Grigor Dimitrov
221
40
290
6
David Goffin
344
28
303
7
Jack Sock
244
77
224
8
Pablo Carreno Busta
87
48
112
-
TOTAL
1896
332
1905
-
AVERAGE
45.9%
8.0%
46.1%
Summary
Roger Federer favoured wide on both sides, but only marginally. Staying ahead in the guessing game of serve location seems to be a hidden gem of the Federer serve arsenal. He was +28 serving wide in the deuce court, and +3 targeting wide in the Ad court.
Another trend seemed to run through the serve patterns as well. The more a player needed a point, such as 0/30, the more he would gravitate to his primary serve locations. The more of a lead he had, such as 30/0, the more he would take on risk and go to the secondary location, looking to surprise and confuse the returner.

Where should your primary first serve location be? Straight down the T, or out wide to initially pull your opponent off the court?
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the 2017 Nitto ATP Finals clearly shows that players who won their matches at The O2 utilised the first serve out wide more than down the T in their quest for victory.
It begs the question: when players are behind in a match, does the scoreboard pressure them to go down the T more often to try and secure quick points to get back into the match?
Serving wide is a higher percentage serve than down the T, offering a bigger target area to aim at, but down the T is the quickest way home, and where more aces were hit in London. Out wide in the both the deuce and Ad court accounted for 69 aces, while straight down the T in both service boxes yielded 111 aces.
So if the T delivers instant results, why did the match winners opt for out wide so much? Because right around 70 per cent of all serves are returned back in play, and if you begin with the returner wide off the court, you initially enjoy more advantageous angles to exploit.
Grigor Dimitrov was the only player to win all his matches in London, and the location where he hit the most aces was deuce court out wide, with eight.
Dimitrov First Serve Ace Location
Deuce Court
8 wide
3 T
Ad Court
5 wide
3 T
Overall, Dimitrov hit 55 per cent (127/230) of his first serves out wide in both the deuce court and Ad court for the tournament.
Roger Federer and David Goffin hit the most aces in London, with 35 each. Goffin, in particular, had a favourite serve location of down the T in the deuce court any time he was under pressure and needed the point. He switched out wide as a secondary option to surprise opponents.
Dominic Thiem led the field with first serve points won, at 81 per cent, but lost twice in Group Pete Sampras play to David Goffin and Grigor Dimitrov, while narrowly defeating Pablo Carreno Busta 6-4 in the third set.
First Serve Points Won
Dominic Thiem 81%
Roger Federer 80%
Grigor Dimitrov 75%
Marin Cilic 73%
David Goffin 73%
Alexander Zverev 73%
Jack Sock 69%
Rafael Nadal 65%
Pablo Carreno Busta 56%
Match winners at The O2 collected more first serve points out wide in the deuce court and Ad court than they did down the T. It’s a good lesson for players at all levels of the game.
Editor's Note: Serve direction metrics from the Goffin vs. Thiem Group Pete Sampras match were unavailable.

The ability to quickly adjust to different surfaces and conditions is a necessity on the 64-tournament circuit. Here's a look at some of the best performers in 2017 by surface this year:

Hard Courts (minimum 10 matches)
Roger Federer won five of his seven titles on hard courts in 2017, including his fifth Australian Open and three ATP World Tour Masters 1000 crowns. David Goffin, who recorded the most hard-court match wins this season, contested five hard-court title matches (2-3 record) for a .717 winning percentage.

Player
W-L Record
Winning %
David Goffin
43-17
.717
Roger Federer
40-4
.909
Rafael Nadal
40-9
.816
Grigor Dimitrov
39-11
.780
Damir Dzumhur
33-16
.673
Jack Sock
33-16
.673
Clay Courts (minimum 10 matches)
'King of Clay' Rafael Nadal recorded historic 10th titles at the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters, the Barcelona Open Banc Sabadell and at Roland Garros. He also won a fifth Mutua Madrid Open trophy and now has a record 53 red dirt crowns. Dominic Thiem also excelled, compiling a 24-5 (.828) mark on the surface (1-2 record in finals).

Player
W-L Record
Winning %
Rafael Nadal
24-1
.960
Dominic Thiem
24-5
.828
Albert Ramos-Vinolas
22-13
.629
Pablo Carreno Busta
20-9
.690
Diego Schwartzman
17-12
.586
Grass Courts (minimum 5 matches)
Federer reigned supreme on the grass, lifting his ninth Gerry Weber Open title and a record eighth Wimbledon crown. His lone loss on mown lawns came to Tommy Haas at the Mercedes Cup, following a two-month absence from competitive play. Marin Cilic, who fell to Federer in the Wimbledon final, also finished as runner-up in his third Queen's Club Championships final (l. to Lopez).

Player
W-L Record
Winning %
Roger Federer
12-1
.923
Marin Cilic
12-3
.800
Gilles Muller
11-2
.846
Feliciano Lopez
9-2
.818
Alexander Zverev
9-3
.750
Indoors (minimum 10 matches)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga won three indoor crowns at the ABN AMRO World Tennis Tournament, the Open 13 Marseille and the European Open from four finals (Erste Bank Open 500). The Frenchman has an 11-8 mark in indoor finals (16-12 overall). Goffin and Grigor Dimitrov, who contested the title match at the Nitto ATP Finals, also performed strongly.

Player
W-L Record
Winning %
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
21-5
.808
David Goffin
20-8
.733
Grigor Dimitrov
15-3
.833
Damir Dzumhur
15-4
.789
Nikoloz Basilashvili
12-4
.750