FedEx ATP Performance Zone

[Lucas]

Holding & Breaking From 0/30

Spoiler:

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers looks at how the Next Generation compares to the Top 8 in two key categories
There is a groundswell of youth currently coming through the ranks on the ATP World Tour that have aptly been labelled the Next Generation of our sport.
The ATP unveiled the #NextGen campaign at Indian Wells this year, focused on getting to know the 15 young players in the Top 200 who are aged 21 or younger. Their speed, agility and youthful exuberance are all easy to identify, but their courage under fire and ability to handle scoreboard pressure are not quite as easy to pinpoint so early in their careers.
This Infosys ATP Beyond the Numbers analysis of 14 of these young players focuses on their performance in the very specific score scenario of 0/30. Are they more likely to win the game when they are serving down 0/30, or when they are returning and the server has fallen into his own 0/30 hole? It’s an interesting snapshot into our sport that first needs a Top 8 yardstick to measure success in these two critical score categories.
From the 2015 season, up to and including the first week of the 2016 clay-court swing, the Top 8 players in the world averaged holding serve 50 per cent of the time at 30/0, with the #NextGen group only at 37 per cent. The Top 8 broke 38 per cent of the time when they got ahead 0/30 in their opponent’s service games, with the #NextGen players quite a distance back at 26 percent.
Of the 13 young players with full data, eight of them (Alexander Zverev, Elias Ymer, Yoshihito Nishioka, Kyle Edmund, Quentin Halys, Nick Kyrgios, Thanasi Kokkinakis and Andrey Rublev) performed better on the serving side of this equation, while the other five (Borna Coric, Hyeon Chung, Taylor Fritz, Jared Donaldson, and Frances Tiafoe) all did better returning. Twenty-one-year-old Brit Kyle Edmund held 50 per cent of the time from down 0/30, which was actually better than Britain’s No. 1, Andy Murray, who only managed to do it 41 per cent of the time during the same stretch.
Nineteen-year-olds Donaldson and Chung broke the most when the opponent fell behind 0/30, at 46 per cent. Remarkably, that was actually better than World No. 1, Novak Djokovic, who was at 41 per cent during the same period. Zverev, a 19-year-old German, was the only player to be ranked in the Top 4 in both categories, putting up stronger 0/30 serve numbers than David Ferrer and stronger return metrics than Tomas Berdych.
The talent is oozing from this young bunch, and the diversity of playing styles is well preserved from this international group of rising stars. In some ways, they are already performing at an elite level, while in others, experience should help them figure out exactly how to make the leap to the elite.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/inf ... v-may-2016

[Lucas]

FedEx Performance Zone: Best Clay-Court Records

Spoiler:

ATPWorldTour.com takes a look at who's had the most success on clay during the past 52 weeks, using the FedEx ATP Performance Zone
For the first 10 years of his career, Andy Murray won close to 70 per cent of his matches on clay, posting an 88-39 record (.693). But last year and so far in the 2016 ATP World Tour season, the World No. 2 has gone 29-3 (.906) on the red dirt.
The Brit's incredible improvement on the surface places him at the top of the clay-court FedEx ATP Win-Loss Index over the past 52 weeks. Murray has amassed an 18-3 record (.850) during that stretch, including last week's Internazionali BNL d'Italia title (d. Djokovic).
“I think I'm definitely moving better. It makes a huge difference,” said Murray, who also reached the Mutua Madrid Open final (l. to Djokovic). “For a number years I didn't move well on the clay... I believe I can play well on clay now.
"Moving better has sort of changed my mentality when I go on the court a lot. I don't feel like I'm off-balance anymore, and I feel like I can chase most balls down. And it's an easy surface for me to move on now.
"After I won a clay-court [ATP World Tour] Masters 1000 [title] last year, I certainly didn't think I'd be doing that multiple times over. Over the past couple of years, clay has probably been my most successful surface, which I never expected to be the case."
Behind Murray at No. 2 sits Rafael Nadal. The seven-time Rome champion has won 84 per cent of his matches on clay during the past 52 weeks, achieving a 28-5 record (.848) and three titles. Last month, Nadal won his ninth Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters and ninth Barcelona Open BancSabadell, equalling Guillermo Vilas' record of 49 career clay-court titles.
“I have been working so hard to enjoy moments like this," Nadal said in Barcelona. "I’m very happy and I feel lucky to enjoy this again.”
Novak Djokovic has had plenty of success on all surfaces over the past 12 months, and especially on clay. The Serb has clinched 83 per cent of his matches on clay (15-3) during that timeframe. Right behind him, at No. 4, is Dominic Thiem, who has won about 80 per cent of his matches and four clay-court titles during the past 52 weeks.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/fed ... ay-records

[Damian]

Novak Uses 'Third Serve' To Full Advantage

Spoiler:

nfosys ATP Beyond The Numbers shows how the best players switch from defense to offense when returning

Imagine playing a match where you get three serves and your opponent gets only one.

Sounds very unfair, but that’s the dynamic the world’s elite players artificially create to gain their competitive edge. There are four separate serves hit in a match – a first and second serve for each player – and the best of the best manage to consistently create a winning percentage with three of them.

The hidden key is to own your opponent’s second serve, and to at least break even on your own. An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis uncovered just 21 players on tour last year managed to maintain a winning percentage against their opponents' second serve and also be above 50 per cent on their own second serve.

The first thing to understand is that nobody will consistently average a winning percentage against an opponent’s first serve. In the 2015 season, David Ferrer ranked No. 1 in this category, winning 35 per cent of his opponents' first serves. In the past 52 weeks, Bernard Tomic has maintained a ranking of around No. 20 in the world, and has won just 25 per cent of his opponents' first-serve points. The career best, since 1991, is Argentine Guillermo Coria, who won 36 per cent against his opponents' first serves.

Once the first serve misses its mark, the world’s best returners flick the switch from defense to offense to take advantage of the second serve's slower delivery with a faster return. Simply, the faster serve dictates a slower, more defensive return, while a slower serve invites a lot more offense from the returner.

Below is the list of the 21 players in the 2015 season who averaged a winning percentage on their opponents' second-serve points and on their own second serve.

In the 2015 season, there were 24 players who had a winning percentage on their opponents' second serves, but three of them failed to generate a winning percentage on their own second serves. They were Andreas Seppi (49.9 per cent), Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (49.7 per cent) and Fabio Fognini (49.3 per cent).

Some players, such as World No. 2 Andy Murray, actually win more second-serve points from their opponenst than on their own second delivery. In the 2015 season, Murray won 56 per cent returning second serves, and 52 per cent of his own second-serve points. In the table above, there were seven players with a similar performance, and another three who were within half a percentage point of doing better on their opponents' second serve than on their own second serve.

As you would expect, this is an area of extreme focus for World No. 1 Novak Djokovic. In the past 52 weeks, the Super Serbian is ranked No. 1 in second-serve points won (59.3 per cent) and second-serve return points won (56.8 per cent). More than any other player, Djokovic maximises the battle surrounding second serves. He also happens to be the world leader in first-serve return points won in the past 52 weeks at 34.6 per cent.

Having a winning percentage on three of the four serves hit is one of the most important tactical concepts that directly translates to a W at the end of a match at all levels of the game.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/inf ... ree-serves

[Lucas]

Too Good At Making First Serves?

Spoiler:

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers shows how landing your first serve all the time can hurt your game
Can you make too many first serves?
It seems like a ridiculous question, but the more you dig into it, the more valid it becomes. First serves are the only shot in tennis that do not have a detrimental consequence if missed. It's a “freebie”.
Is making six out of 10 first serves going to help you win more matches than making seven out of 10? It seems counterintuitive, but like many myths in our sport, numbers help explain what our eyes can only guess about.
Making your first serve has always been thought of as one of the best things you can do to win a match. It’s a balancing act between going for too much and hitting a fault, or not going for it enough to maximise the ultimate first-strike weapon.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of first-serve percentages challenges the myth that getting a very high percentage of first serves in the box is the best thing you can do to be victorious.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE: Serving Under Pressure? No Problem For Federer
The recently completed 2016 Roland Garros is a case in point.
The leading eight players in the first-serve category made between 72 per cent and 80 per cent of their first serves. Common sense tells us that should be a good thing, but six of the eight failed to win a match. Six of the top eight in this specific category also lost in the opening round of the 2015 US Open.
At the 2016 Australian Open, things were very similar. There were 13 players who made between 67 per cent and 75 per cent of their first serves. But only one of those players made it through to the fourth round. Six lost in the second round and the other six all lost in the opening round.
Average First-Serve Percentage At Grand Slams
Recent Grand Slams Average Tournament First-Serve Percentage
2016 Roland Garros 62%
2016 Australian Open 61%
2015 US Open 58%
2015 Wimbledon 62%
Average 60.75%
The current players in the Top 10 of the Emirates ATP Rankings produce a variety of first-serve averages based on their individual playing styles but combine to produce an average very similar to the rest of their peers.
First-Serve Percentages of Top 10 Players
Ranking Player Past 52 Weeks Career
1 Novak Djokovic 66.6% 64.8%
2 Andy Murray 61.2% 58%
3 Roger Federer 63.7% 61.9%
4 Rafael Nadal 70.6% 68.9%
5 Stan Wawrinka 56.6% 57.6%
6 Kei Nishikori 60.8% 61%
7 Dominic Thiem 61% 58.7%
8 Tomas Berdych 56.3% 57.9%
9 Milos Raonic 62.4% 62.5%
10 Richard Gasquet 62.4% 61.7%
Average 62.1% 61.8%
Making five out of 10 seems to be clearly not enough.
Making six out of 10 is much closer to the ideal ratio, with the elite level players just a percentage point or two above that. Making seven out of 10 typically means you are not hitting it big enough, although there will certainly be some matches where that is advantageous.
Yes, you can make too many first serves. Overall, too many first serves in the box means consistency is trumping power with the game’s most powerful shot, and the “penalty-free” benefits of the first serve are not being maximised. The metrics identify that right around six out of 10 is where professional players like to be to in order to win the most matches possible.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/inf ... -june-2016

[Lucas]

Risk And Reward Of High-Power Serving

Spoiler:

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers looks at how the biggest servers balance risk vs. reward
Aces and double faults. High risk and high reward jump right out at you to begin a point in tennis.
These two specific ways a point can be constructed are best understood when you compare them to each other, because after all, they both end the point before it really gets started.
The ace king of our sport is 6’11” (211cm) Croatian Ivo Karlovic, who has smashed 10,624 aces in just 552 matches. His serve is a massive weapon. He's averaged more aces per match, 23, in the past 52 weeks than any other player. But those free points have come at a price paid for in double faults.
Karlovic has averaged four double faults per match in the past 52 weeks, and while that number may seem high, it’s really the ratio between aces and double faults that best explains overall performance in this key strategic area.
For example, Karlovic averages nearly six aces for every double fault he hits. That’s an outstanding return on investment any way you want to slice it.
In the past 52 weeks, John Isner has averaged fewer aces than Karlovic, with 21 a match. But he has also averaged fewer double faults, about two a match. This all adds up to a very impressive ace/double fault ratio for Isner, about 10 aces per match for every double fault.
ATP #NextGen star Nick Kyrgios is one of the game’s biggest servers, averaging almost 13 aces a match so far in his emerging career. To give that some perspective, that’s a better career average than big-serving icons Andy Roddick (11.6 aces/match), Greg Rusedski (11.0 aces/match) and even Pete Sampras, who averaged 10.6 aces per match.
Kyrgios has averaged about four aces per double fault so far in his career, which is almost the same as former World No. 1 Roger Federer.
The Swiss star averages exactly four aces for every double, with 7.6 aces and only 1.9 double faults per match. Rafael Nadal averages even fewer double faults, at only 1.5 per match, but his ace total reaches only 2.9 per match.
Big-serving Australian Sam Groth has averaged the most double faults in a match in the past 52 weeks at a little more than five per per match. But that elevated total is counter balanced with an average of more than 15 aces per match, delivering a ratio of nearly three aces per double fault.
Other notable players with a very high ratio of aces to double faults in the past 52 weeks are Bernard Tomic (5.2), Marin Cilic (4., Viktor Troicki (4.6), Kevin Anderson (4.4) and Milos Raonic (3..
At the elite ranking level, the ace-to-double-fault ratio is also a healthy one. Current World No. 1 Novak Djokovic is averaging 3.1 aces per double fault in the past 52 weeks, while World No. 2 Andy Murray is almost identical at exactly three aces per double fault.
Aces and double faults will always to be an integral part of our game. Getting the mix just right is a key component of any winning game plan.
Top 10 Career Best Ace-To-Double-Fault Ratio
For every double fault the below players hit during their careers, they hit the following number of aces:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/inf ... -june-2016

[Lucas]

Letting The Scoreboard Dictate Strategy

Spoiler:

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers investigates how the world's best use the scoreboard to guide their strategies
The scoreboard dictates strategy a lot more than you think.
Players need just four points to win a game, but there are actually 18 different point scoreboard combinations that represent being ahead, behind or equal with the opponent. Each point won or lost alters the percentages of closing out the game, directly affecting the strategy players employ based on the pressure and risk the scoreboard delivers.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 players in the world, and their performance at each individual point score for the past 18 months, highlights two critical percentages that have a snowball effect on their overall strategies. The current Top 10 players included in the analysis are Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Stan Wawrinka, Kei Nishikori, Milos Raonic, Dominic Thiem, Tomas Berdych and Richard Gasquet.
The first obvious percentage to consider is the current score. The second more important percentage that is often overlooked is the “gap” number, which is all about what happens next. If players win or lose the point, what is the “percentage point gap” between those two future, possible scores. That’s where the secret sauce exists.
The gap number is all about risk assessment. The higher the number, the more risk there is, and the more players should gravitate to higher-percentage primary patterns of play. The lower the number, the less inherent risk is involved, which enables players to dip into their secondary bag of tricks, surprising the opponent with a change-up play.
Five Crucial Scores When Serving*
Score Win Point, Likelihood To Win Game Lose Point, Likelihood To Win Game Percentage Point Gap
30/40 Deuce, 79% Game, 0% 79
15/30 30/30, 97% 15/40, 35% 62
0/30 15/30, 65% 0/40, 21% 44
15/15 30/15, 93% 15/30, 65% 28
0/0 15/0, 93% 0/15, 73% 20
*Stats based on current Top 10 players from January 2015 to present.
The following assessment provides a strategic roadmap for players at all levels of the game to find the right strategy based on the future “percentage gap” number at each score.
HIGH RISK (gap above 50 percentage points)
30/40, Ad Out, 15/30, 15/40
Interesting to note that these points are all played in the Ad court. Making a first serve here is critical. Typically it will be directed at the less potent backhand return, and the server will look for a “Serve +1” forehand to attack right back through the Ad court behind a right-handed opponent. The ideal outcome will be a forced error, much preferred over hitting a winner or trying to outlast an opponent by waiting for an unforced error.
MEDIUM RISK (gap 25 - 50 percentage points)
30/30, 0/30, Deuce, 0/40, 0/15, 15/15
Players will still be gravitating to higher percentage patterns here, beginning with a first serve in play. It’s then all about targeting the opponent’s weaker side and still looking to force errors. On tour, the average baseline win percentage is typically around 46 per cent, while the net offers a much higher return at 66 per cent. Looking for a short ball and approaching with a big forehand to the backhand is a really good fit here. Keeping great court position around the baseline and removing time in the opponent’s preparation are also key factors.
LOWER RISK (gap 2 - 25 percentage points)
40/30, Ad In, 0/0, 30/15, 15/0, 40/15, 30/0, 40/0
Being ahead in the score delivers lower overall risk and enables players to play bigger and bolder than normal. Aces and rally winners will live more here, as well as clever secondary patterns to the opponent's strengths.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/inf ... -june-2016

[Lucas]

Who's The Most Clutch Server In Tennis?

Spoiler:

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers discovers the most 'clutch' servers on the ATP World Tour
Is there such a thing as clutch serving?
All points in tennis are not created equal, and holding serve to win a set provides an ideal snapshot to understand who stands tall when the important moments arrive.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 players in the world so far this season reveals that all of the leading players perform better when the pressure to close a set increases but at slightly different rates.
Big-serving Canadian Milos Raonic leads the Top 10 of the Emirates ATP Rankings when it comes to holding serve, winning a commanding 90 per cent of his overall service games. But Raonic elevates to a rarified level when the opportunity to close out a set presents itself.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE: Letting The Scoreboard Dictate Strategy
Raonic has had 48 opportunities to serve out a set so far in 2016 and has successfully closed out 47 of them. That must be a daunting statistic for the rest of the ATP World Tour to reckon with.
Roger Federer is next in line with the second highest hold percentage when closing out a set in 2016, at 95 per cent.

Heading into Wimbledon, Novak Djokovic, No. 1 in the Emirates ATP Rankings, boasted an incredible 44-3 record this season. He also owned the third highest hold percentage when serving out a set, at 92 per cent. That represents a five percentage point jump over his already spectacular 2016 average.
Overall, the Top 10 combine to increase their dominance by 5.2 percentage points from holding at any point during a match to when they have to close out a set. It’s not often that a number can clearly show the guts and determination of ATP World Tour champions, but these numbers seem to capture those characteristics perfectly.
The scoreboard will always provide pressure for a player, but how you react to it will ultimately define how far you climb in our sport.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/inf ... -july-2016

[Damian]

FedEx Performance Zone: Hard-Court Heroes

Spoiler:

On the most demanding of surfaces, Novak Djokovic is pre-eminent. Had it not been for an eye injury in February, Djokovic might be unbeaten on hard courts in 2016.
The World No. 1 leads the year-to-date Win-Loss Index on cement with an outstanding 28-1 (.996) record, as of 25 July. His lone loss coming in retirement to Feliciano Lopez in Dubai earlier this year.
The Serbian compiled an ATP World Tour-best 59-5 (.922) record on hard-courts last year according to the FedEx ATP Performance Zone, so often winning the physical and mental battle, and growing in confidence through pressure situations. In 2016, he already has four hard-court trophies in his cabinet - including two ATP World Tour Masters 1000 crowns.
Visit FedEx ATP Performance Zone
Milos Raonic, who is currently No. 7 in the Emirates ATP Rankings, has the second-best winning percentage on hard courts this year with a 17-3 (.850) mark and is sure to contend for the sport’s biggest titles following his run to the Wimbledon final earlier this month.
Here's a detailed look at the Top 10 hard-court match wins’ leaders in 2016 (as of 25 July):
Player
2016 Hard-Court W-L (%)
2016 Hard-Court Titles
1) Novak Djokovic
28-1 (.996)
Doha, Australian Open, Masters 1000 Indian Wells, Masters 1000 Miami
2) Milos Raonic
17-3 (.850)
Brisbane
3) Roger Federer
8-2 (.800)
-
4) Gael Monfils
19-5 (.792)
Washington, DC
5) Stan Wawrinka
15-4 (.789)
Chennai, Dubai
6) Nick Kyrgios
14-4 (.778)
Marseille
7) Roberto Bautista Agut
20-6 (.769)
Auckland, Sofia
Andy Murray
10-3 (.769)
-
9) Dominic Thiem
16-5 (.762)
-
10) Kei Nishikori
19-6 (.760)
Memphis
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE: FedEx Performance Zone: Grass-Court Greats

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/fed ... rt-records

[Damian]

A Bright Spot For Returners

Spoiler:

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers examines who has the advantage when game scores go back and forth
In tennis, the server starts the game with an advantage, but if the game is tied after more than a few points, it's the returner who benefits more.
The point score in a game can be equal on at least five junctures, including 0-0, 15-all, 30-all, deuce and subsequent deuces, which we'll call “two+ deuces”.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 players in the Emirates ATP Rankings reveals that their average chance of holding serve when tied drops the further into the game they compete. As the finish line of the game races closer to conclusion, the returner benefits more from having to win fewer points to win the game.
Not all players produced the same hold of serve metrics, though, with some actually performing better having to navigate through multiple deuces rather than just a single deuce. Tomas Berdych jumped four percentage points from 83 per cent to 87 per cent when he had to battle through more than one deuce. World No. 1 Novak Djokovic rose three percentage points, 83 per cent to 86 per cent, showing his mental toughness to hold as the returner extended his service games.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE: The Percentages That Separate Djokovic And The Top 10
Top 10: Percentage Chance of Holding Serve by Point Score
Ranking Player 0-0 15-15 30-30 Deuce Two+ Deuces
1 Novak Djokovic 87% 86% 83% 83% 86%
2 Andy Murray 86% 84% 82% 83% 84%
3 Roger Federer 90% 84% 82% 83% 84%
4 Rafael Nadal 81% 81% 74% 70% 70%
5 Stan Wawrinka 86% 84% 80% 84% 85%
6 Kei Nishikori 83% 78% 79% 74% 74%
7 Milos Raonic 91% 88% 88% 82% 79%
8 Tomas Berdych 84% 86% 80% 83% 87%
9 Dominic Thiem 84% 81% 79% 75% 71%
10 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 88% 84% 85% 80% 76%
- AVERAGE 86% 83.6% 81.2% 79.7% 79.6%
In the Top 10, only Berdych had a higher chance of holding from 15/15 than 0/0 (86 per cent to 84 per cent), while only Jo-Wilfried Tsonga had a better chance of holding from 30/30 than he did at 15/15 (85 per cent to 84 per cent).
Andy Murray, Roger Federer and Stan Wawrinka all fared better holding from deuce than 30/30, with half of the Top 10 holding at a better rate with “two+ deuces” in their service game rather than a single deuce.
Overall, the Top 10 combined to average a lower win percentage with an even scoreline the closer the game got to be completed.
Holding Serve: Top 10 Average Percentage Drop
From 0/0 to 15/15 = 2.4 percentage point drop (86.0% to 83.6%)
From 15/15 to 30/30 = 2.4 percentage point drop (83.6% to 81.2%)
From 30/30 to Deuce = 1.5 percentage point drop (81.2% to 79.7%)
From Deuce to 2+ Deuces = 0.1 percentage points drop (79.7% to 79.6%).
We play a game of very small margins. This is encouraging news for players matched up against the Top 10 week in and week out. The longer you can stay even in the game, the better chance you have of breaking.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/inf ... -july-2016

[Damian]

[Lucas]

The Best Hard-Court Returner Of All-Time Is...

Spoiler:

Who is the best hard-court returner of all-time?
Our sport is currently in the “Golden Age of the Returner”, and with the Western & Southern Open, an ATP World Tour Masters 1000 hard-court tournament, taking place this week, the discussion is a timely one.
Specific categories like this began being recorded in 1991, but the ingredients for this recipe have always been predicated on a quick split step, a short backswing, leaning on the return and delivering the ball back to the server with interest.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis reveals that current World No. 1 Novak Djokovic actually takes the honours in this area, with World No. 2 Andy Murray hot on his heels.
Almost nothing separates Michael Chang and Andre Agassi for third and fourth on the list, with Stefan Edberg surprisingly coming in fifth place.
Other notables in the Top 10 include Jimmy Connors at seventh, Lleyton Hewitt at eighth, Guillermo Coria at ninth and David Ferrer rounding out the Top 10. Overall, fewer than three percentage points separate the Top 10 in this specific return category.

Focus: Djokovic and Murray
Djokovic has won 33 per cent of his return games on hard courts in his career, powering the Serbian to two US Open titles and six finals. He has won a commanding 84 per cent of his hard-court matches in his career and is currently 33-2 on hard courts in 2016.

The Infosys Information Platform identified that Murray has led the ATP Stats LEADERBOARD in return games won on hard courts two times, 2006 and 2009. Djokovic has been at the top of the tree for the past six years, with Murray taking the second spot in five of them.
Return prowess on hard courts is about precise execution from the returner, immediately creating pressure on the server, especially with depth, direction and power. Players at all levels of the game can copy the simple, high percentage technique and tactics of Djokovic and Murray to help break serve more often in their own matches.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/inf ... ugust-2016

[Lucas]

Why Federer & Co. Love Serving At 15-All

Spoiler:

Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers shows how the top players take advantage of the 'even' scoreline
Don’t let the evenness of 15-15 fool you. It is a statistical green light for the server to play aggressively and employ first-strike tactics to get ahead in the game.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the current Top 10 players in the Emirates ATP Rankings reveals a positive environment for them to play bigger and seek shorter points by delivering more firepower at the start of the point.

Score 15-15, Hold Serve Percentage: 84
The Top 10 players in the Emirates ATP Rankings hold serve 85 per cent of the time, according to Infosys Information Platform. With the score at 15-15, their hold-serve percentage drops only one percentage point, to 84, nearly identical to the opening point of the game.
Fifteen-all delivers a high win percentage that mentally puts the server in the driver’s seat, letting him unleash a few potential tactics, including a bigger first serve down the centre of the court if he's chasing an ace or a serve out wide in search of a forehand return error.
Score 30-15, Hold Serve Percentage: 93
With relatively little scoreboard pressure on the server at 15-15, the opportunity to stretch the lead to 30-15 is forefront in the tactical plan. If the server reaches 30-15, they will hold serve on average more than nine times out of 10. There is nothing not to like about that scoreboard situation.
Score 15-30, Hold Serve Percentage: 64
A server's likelihood of holding shifts 29 percentage points when the scoreline changes from 30-15 to 15-30. There is always a statistical consequence of losing a point, but this really isn’t so bad. If the server loses the point at 15-15, he is still likely going to hold serve two out of three times. Proficient servers like Milos Raonic and Roger Federer still manage to hold about 70 per cent of the time from 15-30, while World No. 1 Novak Djokovic holds 67 per cent of the time.
Summary
At 15-15, the server is looking for a shorter point to fully maximise the effects of the first serve, not letting the returner prolong the point into a more even battle. A serve, aggressive serve +1 forehand and a finishing volley is about as good as it gets strategically at this specific point in a game.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/inf ... ember-2016

[Lucas]

FedEx Performance Zone: Deciding-Set Heroes

Spoiler:

ATPWorldTour.com takes a look at this year’s standout performer in deciding sets using the FedEx ATP Performance Zone
Already a four-time ATP World Tour champion this season, 23-year-old Dominic Thiem is riding high on his formula for success. The co-leader with Novak Djokovic for match wins this season, on 56, the Austrian is on track to qualify for his first Barclays ATP World Tour Finals.
An often unrecognised statistic in his winning ways, though, is his enviable tour-leading 21-1 record in deciding sets for the year to date. “Every time I read it I’m impressed about the statistic,” Thiem laughs.
It is a huge improvement on last season, a combination of factors the Austrian puts down to luck, fitness and a healthy dose of confidence.
“A lot of things have an influence,” he said. “First of all, in the first couple of tournaments of the year I was a little bit lucky to win a few third sets. Then of course if you have a 5-0, 6-0, 7-0 record in the decider, you have a lot of confidence.
“The other thing is on clay it’s very hard to play against me. It’s heavier I think and physically tough for the opponent. That’s also the reason and of course my fitness and mental game have improved on last year.”
Despite the impressive record Thiem doubts it enters his opponents’ minds, should they find themselves in a deciding set against him. They are more focused on what they need to do to get across the line.
“Nobody really thinks about it when it goes to the deciding set,” he said. “I don’t think somebody goes in thinking they’re scared because I have such good statistics.”
It serves as a welcome confidence boost in the back of his mind if the match is all square and heading to a final set. “I think so yeah. I think last year was different," he said.
"I lost more than I won. I think if it comes to a decider I have a very good record there so you have a bit better feeling than normal."
So who claims bragging rights as the only player to have taken the deciding set against Thiem in 2016? That goes to Philipp Kohlschreiber, a third-set tie-break winner in the BMW Open final in Munich.
“Nothing went wrong,” he laughed. “He played really good and he deserved to win that actually. I was really lucky it came to a decider.”
Here’s a look at the Top 10 deciding-set match wins leaders for 2016 to date.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/fed ... et-records

[Lucas]

2004: Roger Federer's Best Season Ever?

Spoiler:

ATP Stats LEADERBOARDS now allow fans to compare the year-end No. 1s in Serve, Return and Under Pressure categories from every season since 1991
Some Monday mornings are better than others.
Take, for example, 2 February, 2004. On this particular Monday morning, Roger Federer, aged 22, woke up for the first time in his life with the No. 1 ranking beside his name. It was day one at the top of the global tennis tree, courtesy of defeating Marat Safin 7-6(3), 6-4, 6-2 in the final of the Australian Open the day before.
The Swiss legend would go on to hold the coveted year-end No. 1 in the Emirates ATP Rankings in 2004 – the first of five times he would earn that distinction. He held the top spot four straight years, from 2004-2007, and again in 2009.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE: Why Federer & Co. Love Serving At 15-All
The 2004 season was a coming out party for Federer. He won three majors, the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals and three Masters 1000s among an 11-title haul and a 74-6 match record. In many ways, 2004 was as good a body of work as he has ever put together.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Federer’s 2004 season showed he elevated his serving and returning and at pivotal moments during matches. The new year-end Infosys No. 1 LEADERBOARD spans 25 years back to 1991, allowing a comparison of the No. 1 player from each year in the categories of serve, return and under pressure.
See the all-new No. 1s ATP Stats LEADERBOARDS
Holding Serve
Federer’s prowess holding serve in 2004 was without peer, and amazingly his average was higher against Top 10 opponents. In 2004 he won 91.6 per cent of his service games, and that bumped up to 92.5 per cent when facing Top 10 opponents. (Fans can filter the LEADERBOARDS by performances against Top 10, Top 20 and Top 50 opponents.)

Returning Serve
On the returning side of the equation, Federer had his best year of returning first serves in 2004, winning 34.8 per cent of first-serve return points. (He achieved the same percentage in 2006). Federer trails category leader Novak Djokovic, 35.7 per cent in 2011, by less than one percentage point. Remarkably, Federer’s return prowess against first serves in 2004 was superior to other notable year-end No. 1 returners, such as Rafael Nadal, Lleyton Hewitt, Andre Agassi, Jim Courier and Djokovic in 2014 and 2015.
Under Pressure
Federer’s remarkable level of play in 2004 directly helped him save more break points than any year-end No 1 player. Federer saved 72.6 per cent of break points, edging Pete Sampras’ 1996 season, 72.3 per cent.
Tie-breaks were another key area that helped Federer put together an unparalleled season. He won 80 per cent of the end-of-set shootouts, best among the year-end No. 1s. Dominating tie-breaks has been a calling card of the Swiss. During all five years he finished No. 1, he won at least 70 per cent of the tie-breaks he played.
Federer’s career continues to evolve some 12 years later, but his 2004 season was one for the ages.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/inf ... ember-2016

[Lucas]

Returning To Win

Spoiler:

More than a million points of research. Every Top 100 player. It turns out that player development evolves from playing more points on serve to playing more points returning the further up the Emirates ATP Rankings you climb.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis reveals a hidden element of our sport we have never fully grasped. The majority of the points you want to play are not on your own serve. You want your opponents to go deeper into their service games, where your chances of breaking serve steadily increase. You want to keep your own service games short and sweet.

The Infosys Information Platform uncovered that every single player in the Top 10 has played more return points than serve points since the beginning of the 2015 season. This massive data set is from the past 20 months and contains 1,143,932 points.

Roger Federer led the pack, playing 52.6 per cent of his points returning. Second was World No. 1 Novak Djokovic at 52 per cent. They were the only two players in the Top 100 who reached the 52 per cent mark. The entire data set of 100 players scored in a four percentage point range, from around 48 per cent to 52 per cent.

Dominic Thiem was the third ranked player in the Top 10 in this specific category. The 23-year-old Austrian moved from outside the Top 50 in the Emirates ATP Rankings in early 2015 into the Top 10 in June of this year.

Interestingly, World No. 3 Stan Wawrinka had the lowest rating of any player in the Top 10, playing just 50.1 per cent of points returning serve.

The further down the Top 100 list you move, the more you uncover players who play more points on their own serve, battling harder to hold serve, and not pressuring as much on their opponent’s service games.

Overall, 58 per cent of the Top 100 play more points returning than serving. But there is a clear disparity between the Top 50 and the bottom 50. Seventy two percent of the top half play more return points than serve points, and that elevates to 90 per cent within Top 20. But the metrics are clearly different in the bottom half of the Top 100, with only 44 per cent of players playing more points on return.

Playing more points returning is something that higher ranked players achieve, but it’s also something that more experienced players seem to understand as well. When you look at the youth in the Top 100, there is an overwhelming majority of them who still play more points on serve.

For example, the only two players in the Top 20 who play more points serving than returning are the two youngest, 21 year old Nick Kyrgios and 22 year old Lucas Pouille. Bernard Tomic, Alexander Zverev, Kyle Edmund, Taylor Fritz and Jared Donaldson are young players in the Top 100 who are in the transition zone of trying to play more points on return than on their own serve.

Becoming more efficient on your own serve and making your opponent work harder on his serve makes perfect sense, and now we have the data to tie it to player development and your position in the Top 100 on tour.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/inf ... tober-2016

[Lucas]

How Hewitt Raised His Level Against The Top Players

Spoiler:

Nobody spoils more for a fight than Lleyton Hewitt.
The bigger the match, the higher ranked the opponent, the more on the line, the better he was. The Aussie firebrand would summon his burning “fire in the belly” to raise his game to unprecedented levels when his opponent also occupied a spot in the coveted Top 10.
Hewitt’s dogged determination to succeed produced the unthinkable at the height of his powers in 2001 – a better return record against Top 10 opponents than against the Top 50. If Hewitt looked over the net and saw one his peers ranked in the upper echelon of the Emirates ATP Rankings, his iron will to succeed became the single biggest weapon on the court.
View the ATP Stats LEADERBOARDS
In 2001, Hewitt went 80-18 and won six titles, the most of any year in his career. The Tennis Masters Cup – the equivalent of the current Barclays ATP World Tour Finals – was one of his biggest hauls in a magnificent season that saw him become the youngest No. 1 player in the world after winning the year-end championships in Sydney, Australia.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Hewitt’s 2001 season, his first of two consecutive years as the year-end No. 1, highlights just how good he was when push came to shove against fellow Top 10 opponents. Hewitt’s return game was where he created separation against the Top 10. His strength simply got stronger.
The table below highlights Hewitt’s 2001 performance against Top 50 opponents and against the Top 10. How he compared to other year-end No. 1 players dating back to 1991 is in parentheses. For example, with return games won against the Top 50 in 2001, he had the fifth best season of any year-end No. 1, winning 30.7 per cent of his return games. But that elevated to 37 per cent against Top 10 opponents in 2001 – the highest season average of any player who finished No. 1 from 1991-2015.

The ATP Stats LEADERBOARDS shows Hewitt’s return game in 2001 against Top 10 opponents was by far the best of any year-end No. 1 since 1991. The ATP Stats LEADERBOARDS Return Rating, powered by the Infosys Information Platform, is determined by adding his winning percentage in four return categories: return games won, first-serve return points won, second-serve return points won and break points converted.

Interestingly, Hewitt would also be year-end No. 1 the following year, in 2002, but his ATP Stats LEADERBOARDS Return Rating would drop all the way to 15th best since 1991, at 146.8 per cent. The year 2002 was stellar for Hewitt, but 2001 was positively lights out.
There are many qualities that come together to create a champion, and Hewitt’s ability to mentally and emotionally find another level against his Top 10 peers fueled his best season on tour.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/hew ... tober-2016

[Lucas]

Karlovic, Raonic Among Tour's Most 'Efficient' Servers

Spoiler:

Tennis has always calculated first serves in and first-serve points won separately, but what would happen if we blended those two metrics together?
This would essentially create a “first-serve efficiency” rating, specifically focused on discovering how many first serves you get in multiplied by the percentage won. The blended metric looks like this: First-serve efficiency = first serves in percentage x first-serve points won percentage.

Some players don’t manage to get as many first serves in, but when they do, they win the point a lot. Conversely, other players make a lot of first serves, trading off power for consistency as they try to find the right balance for their game style and physical attributes.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of the Top 20 players in the Emirates ATP Rankings uncovers a substantial 13 percentage point range in “first-serve efficiency”.

For example, World No. 1 Novak Djokovic has made 65 per cent of his first serves so far in 2016, and has won 74 per cent of those points. His first-serve efficiency rating is 65 per cent (made) multiplied by 0.74 per cent (won), which equals 48.1 per cent. That slots him into eighth out of the Top 20 so far in 2016.
The extremes in first-serve efficiency were striking. Lucas Pouille had a +20 percentage point gap between first serves made and first-serve points won (55 per cent to 75 per cent), while Rafael Nadal had a -2 percentage point gap (71 per cent made to 69 per cent won). Nadal is the only player in the Top 20 who had a higher percentage of first serves made than first-serve points won.
The Infosys Information Platform discovered only four players (Ivo Karlovic, Milos Raonic, Nick Kyrgios and Roger Federer) had a combined rating of more than 50 per cent. That essentially means that when you factor in all first-serve faults and first serves made, those four players are winning more first-serve points than they lose.
A serve efficiency rating like this is an ideal guide for players to pinpoint an area of their game to improve. First serves are all about dropping heat while still trying to primarily pinpoint small targets in the service box corners.
The first serve is the ultimate weapon in our sport, helping players basically end the point before it begins. Finding the right mix of power and consistency now has a number.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/rao ... tober-2016

[Lucas]

FedEx Performance Zone: Djokovic Best Vs. Top 10

Spoiler:

To be the best, you have to beat the best. To win the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals, that means beating a stream of Top 10 players. Four players in the eight-man field – Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray, Marin Cilic and Milos Raonic – have six or more Top 10 wins this season.
As a five-time tournament champion, it's no surprise that World No. 2 Djokovic has consistently been the top performer against the Top 10 in the FedEx ATP Win-Loss Index. This year alone he has posted a ruthless 18-3 record (.857), including a 14-match win streak to open the year. The Serbian's career index of .680 is also the best among the elite eight in London.
"I have been managing to win most of the big matches against Top 10 players," Djokovic said during his streak. "I have a certain routine and certain preparation for these big matches that works for me."
Visit FedEx ATP Performance Zone
In addition, Djokovic owns the best combined record against the seven other players to qualify for the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals. He is 14-3 this year, with his lone defeats coming against Andy Murray in the final of the ATP World Tour Masters 1000 event in Rome, Stan Wawrinka in the US Open title match and Marin Cilic on Friday at the BNP Paribas Masters.

Coming in second in the year-to-date FedEx ATP Win-Loss Index is new World No. 1 Andy Murray, who is 11-5 (.688). Marin Cilic rounds out the trio entering London with a record above .500 against the Top 10. The Croatian won six of nine such encounters (.667), including a milestone victory over Murray for the Western & Southern Open crown in August.
"You have to keep improving week after week, and obviously to play consistently well at the big tournaments," Cilic, who arrives in London with a 4-4 mark against fellow season finale contenders, said last week. "Staying in the Top 10 is extremely challenging. There are a lot of obviously great players that are not in Top 10, as well."
Debutants Gael Monfils and Dominic Thiem know firsthand what it takes to compile a consistent campaign on the ATP World Tour. The charismatic Frenchman will be looking to notch his 30th career Top 10 win next week in London. While he has only claimed two such victories thus far in 2016, beating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters and Milos Raonic at the Rogers Cup, the quality of his performances against the Top 10 has significantly improved.
"Among the Top 10, the players are a lot better, but I never thought I was far from them except Novak," said Monfils in Paris. "Maybe I have a psychological block when I play Novak. Maybe I believe it's so difficult, but we are working on that. And for the other Top 10 players, I didn't feel I was that far from them. I had match points against Milos and I beat him once and I went to four sets against Novak."

For Thiem, the Austrian has enjoyed a breakthrough season against the Top 10 of the Emirates ATP Rankings. He entered 2016 with just one victory in his young career and proceeded to amass a 4-7 (.364) mark, earning significant wins over former World No. 1s Rafael Nadal on clay (Buenos Aires) and Roger Federer on grass (Stuttgart).
Rounding out the elite eight are Milos Raonic, who owns the fourth-highest year-to-date FedEx ATP Win-Loss Index among the contenders (.462), followed by Stan Wawrinka (.400).

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/fed ... rmers-2016

[Lucas]

Serving For The Match? No Problem For Top 10

Spoiler:

The server has to factor in a kaleidoscope of different scenarios when attempting to hold serve in a match. The point, game and set scores are constantly in motion, as are the variety of serve strategies such as location, power and spin.
This week’s Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis focuses on five specific serving scenarios for the Top 10 players from the 2016 season, uncovering exactly where they rise to the occasion.
The five serve scenarios:
Overall win percentage.
Serving with new balls.
Holding serve immediately after breaking.
Serving for the set.
Serving for the match.

1. Overall Win Percentage: Top 10 Average = 86%
The Top 10 averaged holding serve 86 per cent of the time in 2016, with Milos Raonic leading the charge at 90 per cent, while Rafael Nadal was the lowest of the group at 81 per cent. Interestingly, Novak Djokovic is the only player on the list who boasts his highest winning percentage of the five specific scenarios in this overall, generic category.
Percentage of Holding Serve in Five Scenarios For The Top 10 In 2016
# Player Overall Win Percentage Serving With New Balls After Breaking Serve Serving For Set Serving For Match
1 Andy Murray 85% 84% 85% 88% 86%
2 Novak Djokovic 86% 84% 85% 84% 81%
3 Stan Wawrinka 86% 85% 91% 90% 91%
4 Milos Raonic 90% 90% 95% 94% 86%
5 Kei Nishikori 84% 86% 86% 92% 89%
6 Gael Monfils 84% 89% 87% 92% 97%
7 Marin Cilic 88% 83% 90% 84% 91%
8 Rafael Nadal 81% 79% 79% 82% 86%
9 Dominic Thiem 83% 84% 85% 88% 92%

Roger Federer 90% 90% 90% 100% 94%
AVERAGE 86% 85% 87% 89% 89%
2. Serving With New Balls: Top 10 Average = 85%
It turns out that serving with new balls does not offer the Top 10 any advantage at all. In fact, their holding percentage dropped from 86 per cent to 85 per cent when they served with new balls. Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka exactly mirrored the one per cent drop in performance, while Marin Cilic dropped a hefty five percentage points, from 88 per cent to 83 per cent. Frenchman Gael Monfils went the other way, jumping five percentage points, from 84 per cent to 89 per cent.
3. Holding After Breaking Serve: Top 10 Average = 87%
The Top 10 rose one percentage point above normal following a break of serve, with Raonic and Wawrinka both leaping five percentage points. These two players really capitalised on breaking serve, reminding us of the old tennis saying that a break is not a break until you hold in the very next game.
4. Serving For The Set: Top 10 Average = 89%
Former World No. 1 Roger Federer led the charge in 2016 in this category, holding serve 100 per cent of the time when serving for the set. It was the only perfect mark scored by any Top 10 player in any of the five categories. Kei Nishikori also enjoyed great success here, posting an eight percentage-point jump from his regular holding percentage of 84 per cent, up to 92 per cent.
5. Serving For The Match: Top 10 Average = 89%
This is where Dominic Thiem found his mojo, jumping nine percentage points from his season average, moving from 83 per cent to 92 per cent. Only Monfils (97 per cent) and Federer (94 per cent) posted higher numbers serving it out than the 23-year-old Austrian.
Holding serve brings many moving parts to the table, and we can clearly see that the elite players seize their opportunities in a variety of different situations.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/inf ... ember-2016

[Lucas]

Del Potro, Other Top Players Find Success Behind Second Serves

Spoiler:

Twenty years ago was the golden age of the big server.
Players such as Goran Ivanisevic, Pete Sampras, Richard Krajicek and Boris Becker dominated during an unprecedented period of first-serve dominance, the mid- to late 1990s. Today, it’s superiority behind the second serve that has risen to prominence as players look to climb the Emirates ATP Rankings.
An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of first- and second-serve win percentages beginning in 1991, when such statistics were first kept in tennis, to the 2016 season, shows a clear and dramatic transition of where players are excelling to begin the point.
Performance categories were created with the following criteria:
First-serve points won at 80 per cent or higher;
Second-serve points won at 55 per cent or higher.
1996 = Best Year For First-Serve Performance
The evolution of sport is not always linear. We think today’s players should be better than yesterday’s, but that’s simply not the case. You have to go back 20 years, to 1996, to find the last season in which at least eight players won 80 per cent of their first-serve points.
Goran Ivanisevic (85.5%)
Pete Sampras (82.9%)
Richard Krajicek (82.7%)
Boris Becker (82%)
Mark Philippoussis (80.9%)
Greg Rusedski (80.7%)
Marc Rosset (80.7%)
Michael Stich (80.3%)

2011 = Best Year For Second-Serve Performance

The year 2011 saw the most players (11) win 55 per cent or better of their second-serve points. That same year also had the greatest disparity in favour of second-serve performance, with only two players (Ivo Karlovic, 80.3%, and Gilles Muller, 80%) at or above the 80 per cent mark on first-serve points won. The 11 players who won at least 55 per cent of their second-serve points in 2011:
Juan Carlos Ferrero (57.3%)
Roger Federer (57.1%)
Federico Delbonis (56.9%)
Rafael Nadal (56.7%)
Andy Roddick (55.7%)
Novak Djokovic (55.6%)
John Isner (55.4%)
Juan Martin del Potro (55.4%)
Janko Tipsarevic (55.4%)
David Ferrer (55.4%)
Tommy Robredo (55%)
Tipping Point = 2001
In the 10 years from 1991 to 2000, there was only one year (1991) where the total number of players who won 55 per cent of their second-serve points was more than the total number of players who won 80 per cent of their first-serve points. Then in 2001, players' second-serve performances surged ahead, and it has stayed that way since.
The last two seasons (2015 and 2016) have seen four players each year win at least 80 per cent of their first-serve points, which is the best since 2000. It is definitely a resurgence, but interestingly it has not been at the expense of second-serve performance, which has stayed solid, with 10 players winning 55 per cent plus in 2015, and nine in 2016.
Summary
The cyclical nature of tennis is influenced by new technology as well as the strategic chess moves and counter-moves that players make to find a critical edge. There is no denying that proficiency behind your second serve is our sport’s current global phenomenon.
How First Serve Dominance Has Changed From 1991-2016

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/news/inf ... ember-2016