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Can Roger Federer Overtake Rafael Nadal in the Rankings?


Roger Federer is currently undergoing his longest stint outside of the top two since becoming No. 1
in the world several years ago, but looking ahead, does Federer have a chance at overtaking world
No. 2 Rafael Nadal in the rankings by the end of the year?

The Current Tally:
Nadal currently has 11,270 ATP rankings points, which is 2,040 points more than Federer, who has 9,230 points.

The Bad News for Federer:
Federer must defend 1,500 points from the Barclays World Tour Finals, which means that the Swiss must again go undefeated at the event in order to avoid losing points. In comparison, Nadal has 1,000 points to defend from the World Tour Finals and could potentially gain 500 points if he goes undefeated.
There are four Masters Series tournaments remaining in 2011. In 2010, Federer won in Cincinnati, made the finals in Shanghai and in Montreal, and finished as a semifinalist in Paris. This means that Federer must defend 1,000 points from Cincinnati, 600 points from Shanghai, 600 points from Montreal, and 360 points from Paris.
In comparison, Nadal reached the semifinals in Montreal, advanced to the quarterfinals in Cincinnati, lost in the round of 16 in Shanghai, and withdrew from Paris. Nadal thus earned 360 points from Montreal, 180 points from Cincinnati, 90 points from Shanghai, and 0 points from Paris.
Federer has 2,560 points to defend in the four remaining Masters Series tournaments, while Nadal has only 630 points to defend. Federer will need to continue to play well in these four tournaments and hope that Nadal does not gain too much ground.

The Good News for Federer:
Federer’s best chance at gaining ground is to win the US Open, a tournament he has won five times in the past. Federer lost in the semifinals to Novak Djokovic last year, giving him 720 points.
Of course, Nadal won the 2010 US Open, meaning that he has 2,000 points to defend. If Federer wins this year’s US Open, he will gain significant ground on Nadal, even if the Spaniard makes it to the final round. In that scenario, Federer would gain 1,280 points, and Nadal would simultaneously lose 800 points, letting Federer cut the gap between the two by 2,080 points.

Up in the Air:
Federer has three zero penalties on his record that are preventing two tournament results from counting toward his ranking. This year, Federer finished as a finalist in Dubai and a quarterfinalist in Monte Carlo, giving him 300 points from Dubai and 180 points from Monte Carlo. By August 8th, those 480 points will automatically be added to Federer’s total. The Swiss has at least two more 500-level tournaments that he must play in order to avoid more zero penalties, and the results of those tournaments would be added his rankings total in 2011.

In comparison, Nadal has two zero penalties on his record, causing his win in Barcelona to not yet count toward his total. In August, one of those penalties will drop, allowing 500 points to be added. The Spaniard must play in two more 500-level tournaments in 2011 to avoid more zero penalties.

My Take:
Federer has a chance to overtake Nadal, but the key will be winning the US Open. Federer thrived last season once the hard-court events began later in the year. If he can approach similar levels of success—and if Nadal struggles at all—Federer may get one step closer to the No. 1 ranking that he has said remains a very real goal of his.

1. Novak Djokovic - 13500
2. Rafael Nadal - 11420
3. Roger Federer - 8380
4. Andy Murray - 5715
5. David Ferrer - 4200
6. Robin Soderling - 4145
7. Gael Monfils - 3165
8. Mardy Fish - 2640
9. Tomas Berdych - 2510
10. Nicolas Almagro - 2380
11. Jo Wilfried Tsonga - 2350
12. Gilles Simon - 2325

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