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Brain Game author Craig O’Shannessy will break down the big matches each day during The Championships.


It took only one point, indeed one shot, to know that Rafael Nadal was not going to have things all his own way at The Championships today.

On the opening point Nadal missed his first serve and his opponent, Martin Klizan of the Slovak Republic, reared back and demolished Nadal’s second serve for a forehand winner straight down the line. It’s hard to imagine Klizan hitting the shot any harder.

Nadal quickly fell behind 0-40 but escaped that game and would eventually win 4-6, 6-3, 6-3, 6-3 after navigating some stormy waters early in the match.

Klizan adopted an extremely aggressive strategy built around his huge forehand, much the same as Lukas Rosol did in 2012 in defeating Nadal on Centre Court. But this time around the World No. 1 successfully adjusted by gradually removing his opponent’s weapon from the equation.

Klizan would hit 16 forehand winners for the match (Nadal 15) with 12 coming in the first two sets and only four in the last two. Nadal again and again simply refused to let him hit it. Klizan closed out set point in the opening set by hitting four big forehands in a row to force a forehand error long from Nadal. It took the Spaniard about a set to figure out that his favorite lefty forehand pattern through the Ad court was going to have to be downgraded to a secondary pattern to get through this match.

A clear example of Nadal’s adjustment was his serve direction in the Deuce court, where Klizan hit 13 forehand returns for the match but had to defend 49 backhand returns, often times stretched out wide in the alley. Nadal mixed much more in the Ad court with Klizan hitting 30 forehand returns and 27 backhand returns as Nadal was able to better match up his hard lefty slice against the dangerous forehand return.

Nadal broke for the first time leading 3-2 in the second set as Klizan started the game with a forehand drop shot that he could have easily hammered like he had done so successfully in the opening set.

The longer the match went on the clearer Nadal became with his game plan. In the third set Nadal forced 10 forehand errors from Klizan, who also donated another nine forehand errors The Nadal tactic of initially starving the weapon at the beginning of the point and then attacking it at the end was working well. Nadal didn’t win a single point in the opening set (0 for 6) that lasted longer than nine shots but won nine of 12 in the last two sets as he rolled to an emphatic opening-round victory.

Federer Takes Charge At Net

FedererRoger Federer had an ideal opening-round match on Court One, enjoying a tactical advantage on the fresh grass courts against Italian clay-court specialist Paolo Lorenzi, whom he defeated 6-1, 6-1, 6-3. Federer continually hugged the baseline and took the ball as early as he could while Lorenzi played very deep, battling the slick grass courts and the Wimbledon heritage of his Swiss opponent. Federer’s serve stats were rock solid, making 70% of first serves, winning 77% and also winning an extremely high 71% of second-serve points. He was able to save all five break points he faced, controlling the court with 40 winners to the Italian’s 12.

Empowered by dominating the back of the court (winning 45 to 26 baseline points), Federer ventured forward with 18 serve and volley points, winning 12, including 100% (7/7) in the third set. Federer won 30 points at the net to Lorenzi’s 12 as the Italian couldn’t quite figure out how to successfully manage the grass.

Wawrinka Dominates with Big Serve

Stan Wawrinka delivered a commanding serving performance in his 6-3, 6-4, 6-3 opening-round victory over Joao Sousa on Court Two. Wawrinka thundered 18 aces, including four on second serves, with 56% (44/78) not returned by his Portuguese opponent. Wawrinka was so strong in this area he did not face a break point in three sets and only dropped seven points on his serve for the match.

Wawrinka’s fastest serve was 128mph, 15mph faster than Sousa’s 113mph delivery. Wawrinka averaged 113 mph on first serves, while Sousa only averaged 100 mph.

Wawrinka also put up solid numbers returning, hitting four return winners and won 32% against first serves and 50% against second serves, which is a difficult task on the fresh grass courts in the first week of The Championships.

Brain Game author Craig O’Shannessy breaks down the big matches each day during The Championships.

There really isn't a lot that separates Novak Djokovic and Gilles Simon.

The scoreboard read 6-4, 6-2, 6-4 in favor of the top seed on Centre Court at the Championships today but to watch the grinding, extended rallies between these two stars of the game you would have thought it was much, much closer.

Take for example the constant baseline exchanges. With Djokovic winning 18 games to 10 you would naturally assume he dominated the back of the court. But Simon surprisingly won 52 points from the trenches to Djokovic's 47. The match featured many long grueling rallies, particularly through the Ad court as players traded backhands while looking to create an opening down the line.

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When a point lasted longer than nine shots you would also think that it was to Djokovic's advantage; the Serb typically constricts his opponents and wears them down with amazing defense and pin-point winners. But he surprisingly only won two more points than Simon for the match in this area, 21 points to 19. This reflects just how tight the match really was and how close these fierce competitors actually are.

Both players hit six backhand winners for the match but Djokovic possessed a little more firepower in other areas, notching 31 winners to 23. There were only a difference of five forced errors (41 to 37) from the baseline, highlighting just how well either player could make the other uncomfortable, especially with depth, direction and power.

With no obvious weakness on either wing with Simon's returns, Djokovic mixed his serve location evenly, hitting 21 serves wide, four at the body and 22 down the middle. Djokovic won 74 per cent first serves in the Deuce court and 80 per cent in the Ad, making 11 per cent more first serves to the Deuce court for the match.

Both players were much stronger with their backhand returns, combining to make double (20 to 10) the forced errors on the forehand return. Djokovic returned better with his backhand, making 85 per cent (44/52) compared to 70 per cent (33/47) from the forehand side. Simon was also much better with his compact backhand returns, returning 83 per cent (34/41) versus a much lower 62 per cent (23/37) from his forehand return due to a comparatively bigger backswing.

A key to Djokovic's good play this year is his increased net play compared to other Wimbledon campaigns. IBM statistics reveal that in 2010 he finished at the net 11.5 per cent of total points and that has steadily risen over the years with 12.6 per cent in 2011, 14.7 per cent in 2012, 14.5 per cent in 2013 and a high of 15.3 per cent at The Championships so far this year. His winning percentage is also five per cent higher than any other year, at 75 per cent. The influence of former Wimbledon champion Boris Becker, Djokovic's coach, may very well be at work with the improved numbers.

Murray Rolls
In a potentially tricky match-up against an up-and-coming opponent, Andy Murray scorched Roberto Bautista Agut 6-2, 6-3, 6-2 in the last match on Centre Court. Murray hit 43 winners, including 11 from both his forehand and backhand. Murray was too strong from the back of the court, winning 43 baseline points to 28 and won 64 per cent (16/25) coming forward to finish at the net.

Murray has started The Championships in devastating form, primarily by being the best returner in the tournament to date. Murray leads all players with return games won at 54 per cent (20/37), returns in at 84 per cent (188/224), returns won against first serves at 45 per cent (64/141) and is third for points won against second serves at 62 per cent (58/94).

Dimitrov Survives
Grigor Dimitrov, seeded 11th, came back from two-sets-to-one down to win a hard-fought five setter against No. 21 seed Alexandr Dolgopolov 6-7(3), 6-4, 2-6, 6-4, 6-1. Dimitrov only dropped serve twice (in the 3rd set) for the entire match, winning 77 per cent of first serves and 52 per cent on second serves. Dimitrov controlled the baseline with big forehands, crushing 15 winners and enjoyed a 17 to 10 advantage in the longer rallies of at least nine shots. He will now play Argentine Leonardo Mayer in the fourth round.

Brain Game author Craig O’Shannessy breaks down the big matches each day during The Championships.

One of the most under-the-radar match-ups on a tennis court is a backhand return against a second serve.

World No. 1 and two-time former titlist Rafael Nadal turned the tide of his third round match by taking control of this key strategy to defeat Mikhail Kukushkin 6-7(4), 6-1, 6-1, 6-1 to advance Saturday at The Championships.

Nadal led 2-1 in the second set and hadn’t yet sniffed a break point for the match. At 40/15, Kukushkin hit his second serve to Nadal’s backhand return that ultimately signalled the beginning of the end for the Kazakhstani.

Nadal stepped inside the baseline and ripped it cross court, immediately forcing a forehand error. At 40/30, Nadal hit a lucky backhand return winner down the line, this time off a first serve, to drag the game back to Deuce. A couple of points later Nadal hit another backhand return winner down the line in the Ad court off a second serve to keep the game alive.

In the final two points of this pivotal game, Nadal hit a deep backhand return off a second serve at Deuce hard down the middle that set up a powerful run-around forehand to finally get to break point at Ad Out.

The Spaniard then crushed a second serve backhand return down the line to immediately force a forehand error and finally break Kukushkin for the first time in the match. From this point on, it was lights out for Kukushkin as he would only win two more games for the entire match.

Kukushkin targeted Nadal’s backhand with his second serve in the Deuce court, hitting 11 out wide, 13 jamming the backhand at the body and only three down the middle to the forehand. Nadal typically loves to run around second serves and smack forehand returns, but the slick grass courts rob him of the necessary time to execute it, so he has adjusted his game by shortening his backhand backswing and stepping inside the baseline a lot more to find the advantage.

The Ad Court offered similar targets with 12 second serves directed down the middle to Nadal’s backhand return, eight jamming at the body and only four mixed out wide to the forehand. Kukushkin only won 35 per cent (18/52) of his second serve points for the match as Nadal’s improved backhand return dominated this micro-battle. Nadal put back in play 76 per cent (61/80) of all points starting with a backhand return which was slightly higher than the 72 per cent (39/54) from the forehand side. This is where the genius of Nadal lies - adding layers of pressure, which silently build throughout the match.

Nadal only yielded 13 forced errors off the backhand return (five Deuce court/eight Ad court) in four sets, but amazingly was only credited with three backhand return unforced errors for the match – all in the Deuce Court. He has never been one to beat himself.

Nadal’s returns against second serves have gradually improved this year at The Championships, winning 50 per cent in the opening round against Martin Klizan, 46 per cent against Lukas Rosol and 65 per cent against Kukushkin. He is also getting better from the baseline, winning 51 per cent, then 54 per cent and finally 59 per cent as he has progressed through the first three rounds.

Nadal will rely heavily on his backhand return in his next match against Australian Nick Kyrgios who leads the tournament for aces on 76.

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FedererFederer Unbreakable

Roger Federer is one of only three players left in the draw that has not lost serve in the opening three rounds. He saved both break points Saturday in the third set to knock Santiago Giraldo out of the tournament with a decisive 6-3, 6-1, 6-3 to move through to the fourth round against Tommy Robredo. A massive difference in the match was simply the ability to get the serve back in play.

Federer made an extremely high 68 per cent of first serves, including 79 per cent (23/29) in the opening set, resulting in Giraldo not getting back 54 per cent (39/72) of his returns into the court. By contrast, Federer only missed 19 per cent (15/81) of his returns, including four in the opening set, five in the second and six in the third. This applied massive pressure for Giraldo, who didn’t hit an ace for the match, receiving almost no free points against the seven-time former Wimbledon champion.

Federer had a massive 82-45 advantage when points were finished in the first four shots as he moved extremely well around the court, hunting the short ball looking to finish the point before it really got started. Only six points out of 158 lasted at least nine shots, with Giraldo winning five of them. Federer was always looking to come forward; winning 82 per cent (14/17) of his serve and volley points and 65 per cent (15/23) of approach points. He is successfully fine-tuning his aggressive games style for a shot at an unprecedented eighth title here at The Championships.

Brain Game author Craig O’Shannessy breaks down the big matches each day during The Championships.

Centre Court at Wimbledon used to be a haven for the biggest servers in the world. Not so anymore.

Andy Murray moved through to the quarter-finals at The Championships with a 6-4, 6-3, 7-6(6) victory over Kevin Anderson on the back of yet another dominant return performance.

Murray is well on track to repeat as Wimbledon champion as the tournament’s best returner so far. He is leading the event with return points won against first serves at 42 per cent (93/222), return games won at 45 per cent (24/53) and is tied for fifth with return points won against second serves at 58 per cent (80/138). He knows how to dismantle a bomb of a first serve with blocking returns as good as anyone in the game.

The days of Ivanisevic, Rafter, Sampras and Krajicek seem a distant memory as Murray leads the current charge of dominant counter-punchers who have swung the pendulum to the returning side, even on Wimbledon’s famous grass courts.

Against Anderson, Murray actually took the honours on both sides of the court. Murray served 11 aces to the South African’s nine, had 40 per cent of his serves unreturned to Anderson’s 27 per cent and dominated on first serves, winning 81 per cent (55/68) to Anderson’s 65 per cent (81/125). Murray was only broken once in 15 games, only facing three break points, while Anderson had to defend a massive 19 break points, ultimately yielding four.

Murray has developed into a very accomplished server but his return game will always bring the most pressure to his matches. It all starts with simply getting the ball back in the court. Against Anderson’s dominant, high-bouncing serves, Murray only missed putting back into play 27 per cent (34/125) of his returns. Anderson lost this battle too, missing 40 per cent (36/91), instantly falling in a deep hole trying to make an impression in Murray’s service games.

Once the rally started Murray again took the honours. The Brit dominated the eventual Ad Court backhand-to-backhand exchanges, hitting eight backhand winners to Anderson’s four, only making four backhand unforced errors in three sets to Anderson’s 11.

One might think Anderson would be able to get ahead on the shorter points lasting up to four shots but Murray owned this area as well, winning 80 points to 68. Anderson wisely came to the net as much as possible, winning 64 per cent (34/53) and probably should have come in even more than that.

The dilemma for big servers is what do they do once the rally begins: Murray won 50 per cent (64/125) of points that ended with him at the baseline while Anderson could only manage 32 per cent (29/88). It’s hard for Anderson to get ahead when Murray takes the honours at almost every turn.

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DjokovicDjokovic Locks Down

Novak Djokovic defeated a dangerous Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 6-3, 6-4, 7-6(5) to advance to the quarter-finals where he will play No. 26 seed Marin Cilic. Djokovic dominated the opening two sets and held off a fast-finishing Tsonga in a close third-set tie-breaker.

“We both served very well in the tie-break, and the only opportunity I had was on a second serve at 6-5, and I used it. I went for the shot,” Djokovic said. “I’m just glad that I didn’t allow him to go into the fourth set, because he started to use obviously the crowd support. And I knew that he’s going to do that because he’s the kind of player that feeds off the energy, so it was very important to get this done in straight sets.”

Djokovic was extremely strong closing the match out and saved the only two break points he faced for the match in the third set – winning all 16 of his service games.

Djokovic’s backhand was once again a rock, hitting 10 winners (Tsonga had four) and only committing three unforced errors for the match. True to the earlier rounds, Djokovic continued to attack the net, winning 87 per cent (21/24), which was much better than the Frenchman, who only won 50 per cent (9/16) at the net.

Surprisingly Tsonga won more points from the back of the court (38 to 33) with exactly half (19) coming in the third set when he surged with the crowd support who were looking to see more tennis from these two leading players at The Championships.

Brain Game author Craig O’Shannessy breaks down the big matches each day during The Championships.

There is no better place in the world to officially announce your arrival than Centre Court at Wimbledon.

Nineteen-year-old wild card Nick Kyrgios, of Australia, did just that on Tuesday, shocking World No. 1 Rafael Nadal 7-6(5), 5-7, 7-6(5), 6-3 in a fearless result born of raw, power tennis.

Kyrgios, No. 144 in the Emirates ATP Rankings, bombed 37 aces, including a 118mph second serve on the third point of the match, to move through to the quarter-finals against No. 8 seed Milos Raonic on Court One tomorrow.

Matches like these are defining moments in the sport – watermarks that signal the rise of a new guard in the history of the game. There would be no easing into this match for 6’5” Australian – he fired a 127mph ace down the middle on the first point of the match and then had the audacity to hit the 118mph second serve ace to the same spot two points later. Kyrgios believed in his destiny and so would the Centre Court crowd just a handful of points into the encounter. Kyrgios would ultimately smash 70 winners for the match, allowing the World No. 1 just 44. He brought the farm on just about every shot he hit.

Kyrgios was only broken once for the match, at 5-6 in the second set, after winning a ridiculous 36 straight points on his first serve that lasted all the way to the middle of the second set. He was basically untouchable, only allowing Nadal to see three break points for the entire match. Kyrgios served 140 times for the match and 49% (68) were unreturned by one of the best returners in the game.

The match started at a frenetic pace with Kyrgios bombing seven aces in his opening three serve games in a jaw-dropping start. Nadal was trying to slow everything down while Krygios had his foot stuck hard on the accelerator.

The Aussie had 22 winners to Nadal’s 12 in the opening set, and no point was more important than winning a 17-shot rally to get the mini-break 2-0 in the first set tiebreak. It was a mature, patient rally that mixed spin, direction and power, ultimately forcing a Nadal backhand into the net. Kyrgios sprung to a 4-0 lead and won the tie-break 7-5 with a 122mph ace out wide – a perfect bookend to the ace blasted on the opening point.

At no stage in the match did Kyrgios falter or go away from his game plan. He had nothing to lose and a legacy to gain by attacking at will. He was certainly not afraid or overawed by the moment. His biggest test came when Nadal held set point in the third set for a two-sets-to-one lead with Kyrgios serving at 5-6, 30/40. But the Australian tightened his grip on the match with a 122mph bomb down the middle in Ad court that was unreturned. Crisis averted.

Kyrgios’s height and ultra-flat backhand completely negated Nadal’s heavy forehand spin through the Ad Court as the Aussie repeatedly won this critical baseline match-up that Nadal normally owns. Kyrgios notched 10 backhand winners for the match to Nadal’s two, winning all the important battles over the court.

Kyrgios also was the better returner for the match, hitting five return winners to Nadal’s zero. Kyrgios was quite often going deep into Nadal’s service games, returning 65% (87/134) of his returns for the match back into play while Nadal often struggled just to get a racquet on the Australian’s booming serve, only making 51% (72/140) back in the court.

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Federer Hunts The Short Ball
Federer, RobredoRoger Federer, seeded fourth, only lost five points on his first serve in three sets to cruise through to the quarter-finals with a commanding 6-1, 6-4, 6-4 victory over No. 23 seed Tommy Robredo.

Federer broke Robredo’s opening service game and raced to a 3-0, then 5-1 lead, building scoreboard pressure that effectively kept the Spaniard out of the match right out of the gate. Federer moved extremely well and was always looking to come forward on any ball that presented half a chance. Federer won 70% (29/41) of his net points, which was much higher than the 52% (38/70) he won ending the point at the baseline.

Another key element that Federer developed was serve and volley, winning 84% (16/19), including 100% in the opening two sets. An interesting analytic to keep examining for Federer as he moves through the draw is his first serve percentage to the Deuce and Ad Courts. Federer only made 43% (16/37) first serves to the Ad Court but a considerably higher 68% (26/38) to the Deuce.

The Swiss star won 88% on both sides, serving 19 times wide, two at the body and 21 down the T in both courts. On second serves, Federer hit 21 to the Ad Court with 17 of those going wide to Robredo’s backhand. He only hit 12 second serves in the Deuce Court with eight directed down the middle to the backhand. Federer will now face Swiss compatriot Stan Wawrinka in the quarter-finals.

Brain Game author Craig O’Shannessy breaks down the big matches each day during The Championships.

Grigor Dimitrov showed great maturity with his shot selection to keep the upsets rolling this year on Centre Court at Wimbledon.

Dimitrov ousted defending champion and No. 3 seed Andy Murray 6-1, 7-6(4), 6-2 by controlling the baseline tempo, attacking the net with near perfection and serving with smart patterns to open up holes later in the point.

Whenever Murray asked a question, Dimitrov had the strategic answer.

Dimitrov's serve was the dominant force on the court, only losing it once out of 14 service games. He made a solid 63% (57/91) of first serves and won 77% (44/57) of them. Dimitrov's intelligent first serve tactics were to pull Murray off the court with wide serves to open up holes to run him later in the point. Dimitrov has now won 77 of 80 service games for the tournament in a career-best run to the semi-finals.

The Bulgarian’s tactics were clearly seen as he directed 69% (20/29) first serves wide in the Deuce court and 60% (17/28) wide in the Ad Court. It didn’t matter if Murray was hitting a forehand or backhand return – just that he wasn’t stepping into it. Murray hit 31 forehand returns and 34 backhand returns in an evenly spread assault. Murray committed seven return errors off both his forehand and backhand wing.

Dimitrov's 10 aces were nearly always surprise tactics, going away from the primary pattern out wide to steal a point down the middle. He hit eight of his aces down the T (3 Deuce/5 Ad) as Murray was leaning on the out wide serve. Murray's five aces were all directed to the Dimitrov backhand - three in the Deuce and two in the Ad.

While most of the IBM statistics were fairly even despite the one-sided result, Dimitrov really separated himself from Murray in the second serve department. This was a front line of attack against Murray’s notoriously slow second serve with Dimitrov winning an extremely high 69% (22/32) of Murray's second serve points. Dimitrov’s average second serve speed was 96mph while Murray was a full 10mph slower at 86mph. Dimitrov took full advantage of the slow pitches.

Murray was unusually inconsistent from the baseline, especially with his forehand where he notched up 19 unforced errors to Dimitrov's four. Dimitrov’s forehand has been a real weapon this tournament, hitting 59 winners to only 42 unforced errors, and the four against Murray were the lowest of any match so far. Dimitrov showed great maturity from the beginning of the match to offer very little rhythm for the Brit, especially mixing in a healthy amount of slice backhands as well as heavy topspin drives that didn't allow Murray to continually bang away and find his groove from the trenches. Dimitrov won 49 baseline points to Murray's 34; dominating shorter rallies up to four shots 66-44 as the crowd favourite misfired again and again trying to get the point started. Murray had hit 31 backhand winners for the tournament so far, with eight being his lowest total, but he could only manage one against Dimitrov’s clever mixing strategy.

Murray was broken early in the first set at 1-2, 15/40, when he missed a backhand pass against the attacking Bulgarian. Murray played too deep behind the baseline and as a result hit too short, allowing Dimitrov to approach the front of the court at will. Dimitrov won 90% (20/22) of points coming forward, continually making Murray have to pass from very deep and wide on the fresher grass.

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Federer Finishes Strong
Federer, WawrinkaRoger Federer won 19 of 20 service games to post a strong 3-6, 7-5(5), 6-4, 6-4 victory over countryman, Stan Wawrinka, who was gassed at the end of his third match in three days. Federer came to the net the most of any match so far at this year’s Championships; winning 71% (32/45) to limit the effect of Wawrinka’s crushing groundstrokes. Federer won the least of any match from the baseline at 42% (48/114) as he is averaging a full 10% higher overall so far this year.

Federer surged to a two-sets-to-one lead with an amazing serving performance in the third set. He only lost three points on his first serve (17/20), only missing four first serves in five service games. He won three of the four second serves and mixed in five serve and volley points during the set for good measure, winning four.

Wawrinka’s edge in the match was in extending the rally, but he just didn’t have the legs to be able to do it often enough. Wawrinka won nine of 11 baseline points that lasted at least nine shots with heavy groundstrokes from all over the court. Federer was solid with 12 forehand winners and five backhand winners, but Wawrinka took the honours with 17 forehand winners and 13 bruising backhand winners.

Brain Game author Craig O’Shannessy breaks down the big matches each day during The Championships.

Make no mistake about it; we are in the Golden Age of the returner.

Roger Federer neutralised the big serving Canadian, Milos Raonic, with a sublime return performance to move through to his ninth Wimbledon final with a 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 victory on Centre Court Friday.

Federer has amazingly only lost serve once for the tournament but it was his return game that was at its brilliant best against the Canadian flame-thrower. The Swiss star forced Raonic into tournament low totals in almost every single IBM serve statistic with deep blocking returns off first serves and aggressive counter-punching against second serves to immediately push Raonic back on his heels.

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The pressure from Federer’s returns forced Raonic to under-perform with first serves made (55%), first serve points won (80%), second serve points won (50%), service games lost (three), unreturned serves (45%) and double faults (four). He also only hit 17 aces, which was his second lowest total, with four of the other five matches featuring at least 30. These numbers would probably look great for most players, but Raonic relies so heavily on his serve that they simply weren’t enough of a factor to power him through to the final.

With Federer serving and returning so well it sends an ominous warning to Novak Djokovic, who he will meet in Sunday’s final. History has proven that when Federer is humming like this, it doesn’t matter who is standing on the other side of the net.

Federer nullified Raonic’s missile serves very effectively, absorbing and blocking back the Canadian’s raw power. Raonic has averaged 124mph on first serves for the tournament to Federer’s 116mph, but that is only part of the story. Where it lands is often times more important.

Federer only made a miserly 14 forced return errors for the match, which was tied for the lowest amount of any match he has played so far. Although he only won 20 per cent of Raonic’s first serve points, it’s still five per cent better than anyone else managed.

Raonic mixed his serving patterns more in the deuce court with 23 serves to Federer’s backhand and 22 to the forehand, but he over-played the backhand in the Ad court, firing 26 out wide to the backhand return compared to only 11 to the forehand.

Overall Federer put 38 per cent (13/34) of his forehand returns back in play, but was much more efficient with 65 per cent (44/80) back in play off his backhand wing - particularly slicing it deep down the middle to neutralise the start of the point. With Federer making more than triple the amount of backhand returns, it was an interesting choice by the Canadian to overdose on it, particularly in the more important Ad court where more of the bigger break points are naturally played. Raonic totalled 45 per cent in unreturned serves, which sounds good, but it was his lowest total of any match for the tournament.

It is interesting to see serving and volleying delivering the highest winning percentage of any tactic so far for the tournament for the Federer. The Swiss has won 78 per cent of serve and volley points, 71 per cent of approach points and only 52 per cent of baseline points.

Djokovic Dominates Shorter Points
Novak Djokovic moved through to his third Wimbledon final with a gutsy 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(2), 7-6(7) victory over Grigor Dimitrov.

DjokovicIt was a very tight match, with Djokovic only winning four more points (140 to 136), with many even numbers statistically across the board.

What was interesting was the Bulgarian’s ability to have a higher percentage chance of winning the point the longer it lasted, which is usually the proud domain of the Serb. Djokovic held a significant edge in short rallies up to four shots (99 to 78), but once the point stretched longer he lost significant control.

Rallies lasting between five and eight shots were dominated 40 to 27 by Dimitrov and he even held the edge 18 to 14 with points lasting at least nine shots. Overall Djokovic won 55 points with him finishing at the baseline to Dimitrov’s 52, but we are not used to seeing a diminishing loss of control as the point unfolds for the Serb.

Djokovic didn’t return as well as we have seen from him on the grass this year, making only 62 per cent of his returns against Dimitrov, down from his tournament average of 70 per cent. He is almost even with forehand winners (53) and backhand winners (55) for the tournament and that closeness is also mirrored in unforced errors with 56 from the forehand and 58 from the backhand. Djokovic has not played a match so far in which he has lost the honours in winning more points than his opponent with short rallies up to four shots, but he has lost half of the medium and long rallies. He must fix this problem in the final if he is to win a second Wimbledon title.

Brain Game author Craig O’Shannessy breaks down the big matches each day during The Championships.

Novak Djokovic dominated two key patterns of play that ultimately helped him win Wimbledon for the second time by the smallest of margins.

Djokovic defeated Roger Federer 6-7(7), 6-4, 7-6(4), 5-7, 6-4 in an epic final that was almost inseparable on the scoreboard and on the statistical sheets except for the key defensive areas of backhands and second serves.

While Federer dominated the match with winners (75 to 68) and almost won the final with spectacular offense, it was ultimately the Serb’s defensive skills that weighed heavily in overcoming adversity to triumph at SW19.

Djokovic’s thrilling victory came in large part by saving a break point at 3-3, 30/40 in the fifth set. He worked Federer’s backhand, and the slice passing shot ended up in the net. Dodging that bullet - the only break point Djokovic faced in the fifth - was as important as any of the 186 points the 27 year old won in the final.

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Backhand Battle
Djokovic’s main edge was the ability to control the back of the court with a backhand far superior to Federer's. Djokovic hit 18 backhand winners to Federer’s four which was a considerable differential considering Djokovic hit just five more forehand winners (24 to 19) for the match. It was a way to create offense, dictate the direction and flow of the rally and also provide incredible defence, particularly with raking passing shots down the line.

Djokovic’s backhand stood tall against Federer’s net play as he scorched 11 backhand passing-shot winners that made Federer second-guess coming forward. Djokovic also hit two forehand passing-shot winners for a total of 13 which was much higher than Federer’s two passing shot winners for the match.

IBM’s Aggressive Analysis, a measure of a shot's power, direction, depth and point of origin on the court, highlighted Federer’s slight edge with bigger forehands, hitting 75 to 69 for the match. But when it came to backhands, Djokovic was in a class all of his own, dominating 58 to 34. Djokovic ultimately committed 41 total backhand errors for the match but it was several less than Federer’s 50. Djokovic committed 10 backhand errors in sets one, two and four, but he locked it down in set three when desperately called upon for only six errors.

In the deciding fifth set, with the title completely up for grabs, the Serb committed only five backhand errors. It helped stop the bleeding of losing the fourth set, which he had led 5-2 and failed to convert a match point at 4-5 when Federer aced him. In the fifth set, with Djokovic battling the scoreboard, crowd, an in-form opponent and fatigue, there was not a shot he had more confidence in than his beloved backhand. Djokovic won 48 per cent (93/193) of points that he finished at the baseline, mainly because of his rock-solid backhand, while Federer could only manage 40 per cent (65/161) when he was at the baseline when a point ended.

Second-Serve Points
Federer served like a god when hitting a first serve, crushing 29 aces, making an extremely high 69 per cent of first serves and winning 77 per cent of them. Those kind of numbers usually get the job done on any other day. It was almost impossible for Djokovic to make a dent against Federer’s first serves but when he missed it, that’s when defense turned into offense for the Serb. Djokovic humbled Federer’s second serve, with the Swiss superstar only winning a tournament low 44 per cent over the five sets.

By contrast, Djokovic has solid numbers on first serves, making 62 per cent, winning 73 per cent, but was lights out on second serves compared to Federer. Djokovic was almost 50 per cent better than Federer in this area, winning 65 per cent of his second serve points under extreme pressure. This was also six per cent better than Djokovic’s tournament average, giving him another key strategic area to rely on in the final. Djokovic has always counted his second serve return as a strength of his game and it really came to play on Sunday.

Attacking
Federer correctly came to the net as much as possible against Djokovic to find an edge, winning 78 per cent (28/36) serving and volleying and 66 per cent (44/67) approaching. It was a smart strategy that especially got Federer back into the match after he trailed 2-5 in the fourth set. Federer came to the net 16 times in the fourth set, which was second only to 17 in the opening set, which he also won. If there was one strategy he might regret not using more, it would be the drop off in getting to the net in the fifth set - where he came in only 14 times, winning eight. With Djokovic on the ropes physically and mentally, an all-out assault on the front of the court may have yielded a different result.

Brain Game author Craig O’Shannessy breaks down the Rogers Cup final.

Roger Federer owned the net but was dominated in baseline play in falling to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the final of the Rogers Cup on Sunday.

Tsonga won 7-5, 7-6(3) and had to withstand a net onslaught from Federer, who basically abandoned the baseline to try to find a pathway to victory.

Federer won 82 per cent (16/21) of approach points, 88 per cent (21/24) of serve and volley points, but only 34 per cent (22/65) from the back of the court as his groundstrokes lacked the normal rhythm on the slightly faster courts in a warm daytime match in Toronto.

Owning the Baseline
Tsonga increasingly made Federer uncomfortable from the back of the court with deep groundstrokes, especially with his return of serve. Tsonga repeatedly went after Federer’s backhand once the point began and it did not contribute a single winner for the match for the Swiss star. Federer often looked off balance hitting his backhand, amassing 30 errors, including 18 groundstrokes and 12 returns.
In the opening set Tsonga directed 71 per cent of his backhands cross court to Federer’s backhand and 55 per cent of his forehands through the Ad Court, pounding away at the comparatively weaker wing. Tsonga edged ahead 19 to 13 in baseline points won in the opening set but overwhelmed the Swiss maestro in this area in the second set, winning 25 points to nine from the back of the court.

With Federer serving at 2-3, 30-30 in the second set, Tsonga had won nine of the first 11 baseline points to begin the second set, ramping up backcourt pressure. With Federer serving at 4-3, Ad In, in the second set, he had incredibly only won four of 23 baseline points for the set.

Federer’s forehand fared better with nine ground stroke winners and he struck every one of them standing inside the baseline hunting the short ball. But once Tsonga developed the rally and got the ball deeper, Federer succumbed with 24 forehand groundstroke errors (14 standing in the Deuce / 10 standing in the Ad) and nine returns.

Even though Federer was trying to keep the point as short as possible, Tsonga still won more rallies under five shots, (66 to 55) and held the edge for points lasting between five and nine shots (22 to 17) as well. Only eigh eight points (5%) out of 170 made it to double digits, with both players winning four each.

Tsonga’s Sensational Serving
A remarkable aspect of the encounter was that Federer was not able to earn a single break point despite Tsonga only making 50 percent of his first serves for the match. It may not have gone in much, but it was almost impossible to win points against as Tsonga won an amazing 94 percent (33/35) of first-serve points for the match. In the Deuce court, he attempted 14 out wide, made eight, and won all of them. He was not nearly as accurate down the middle in the Deuce, only making 6 of 19, and winning all of those.

The Ad Court showed similar patterns as Tsonga only made six of 16 down the middle, winning five, and made 10 of 15 out wide, winning nine.

The writing was on the wall early as Tsonga only made one of his first six serves in his opening service game, but he consistently hit his second serve well with smart speeds, kick and placement, and won a healthy 62 per cent (22/35) for the match.

Federer’s Net Play
One of the often unsung strengths of Federer’s game is his ability to execute several different game plans if others are failing. With the back of the court proving to be a losing proposition, he served and volleyed a considerable 24 times; including seven on second serves, winning five of them. Overall, he served and volleyed 17 times to Tsonga’s backhand (winning 16) and seven times to the forehand (winning five).

Once the rally began, he was always looking for a quick way to sneak to the net. Out of a possible 103 rally points (less aces, doubles faults and return errors), Federer finished the point at the net 45 times, representing 44 per cent of his total opportunities.

The evenness of the match was also reflected in total distance run, with Federer only running five more meters (1363 to 1358) over an hour and 47 minutes.

Brain Game author Craig O’Shannessy breaks down the Western & Southern Open final.

Roger Federer has fully recommitted to the net and is once again dialing in greatness with his sixth Western & Southern Open title – and his 16th win in 16 career meetings with Spaniard David Ferrer.

Federer defeated Ferrer 6-3, 1-6, 6-2 in Sunday’s final with spectacular serving and constant approaching that is undeniably the perfect game style for the 33-year-old star. His strategy is going through a final evolutionary stage under new coach, Stefan Edberg.

Federer is the sport’s Renaissance man, with a renewal of life and vigour to keep points short and finish them at the net. He is running less, winning more, covering up weaknesses and applying pressure with just the threat of sneaking in. It not only feels right for Federer, but the numbers fully support the strategy.

Hunting the Short Ball
Coming forward is something Federer no longer shows indecision with. In Cincinnati, Federer made contact with the ball 42 per cent of the time inside the baseline for the tournament, representing an overwhelming desire to come forward. When he was forced to trade blows from the back of the court, he is hugging the baseline as much as possible, striking 45 per cent of his total shots standing within two metres of the baseline. Again, that’s impressive, first-strike numbers.

He only hit 13 per cent of his shots further back than two metres, but a lot of these exhibit correct defensive movements, showing respect for his opponents’ depth. When he does move back, he is quick to return to the baseline to pressure with his court position and be ready to jump on anything short.

In the first set against Ferrer, Federer won 80 per cent (8/10) of all approach points, including those coming forward on his terms, behind drop shots, or when Ferrer pulled him in. He won 60 per cent (6/10) in a loose second set and then locked down to win 83 percent (5/6) in the final set. He won 73 percent (19/26) overall and those are the numbers that are driving Federer once again up the Emirates ATP Rankings.

Serving and Volleying
Federer is reinforcing another dimension to his net play by stepping up his serve and volley game. He won 50% (8/16) of his serve and volley points, which may not seem fantastic, but it’s still going to deliver a higher winning percentage than staying at the back of the court grinding against Ferrer. Federer started brilliantly with the tactic in the opening set, winning 80% (4/5) but overused it in the second set when all of his game dropped a level and Ferrer rediscovered his own good form. Federer stubbornly served and volleyed four times at 0-3 in the second set, losing all those points. But the pressure it brings, and the indecision it creates in the returner’s mind on how to deal with the serve, is a perfect fit for the overall game plan.

Federer Serve Patterns
Federer is once again showing confidence hitting his spots and it was a huge reason he ran away with the third set. Federer made 84 per cent of his first serves in the deciding set, winning 94 per cent (15/16). It was basically unplayable in the clutch. Federer hit six aces for the match, with four of them directed down the middle in the Deuce court. In the Deuce court, Federer attempted 18 out wide, made 12 and won 11. He was not as accurate down the middle, attempting 20, making 11 and winning seven. Federer served 17 first serves to Ferrer’s forehand, winning 13, and 21 first serves to the backhand, winning 16.

Federer Returning
Federer had a fast start to the match, a sloppy middle, and finally gained control again with Ferrer serving at 1-2, 15/30 in the third set. Federer ran around a second serve directed at his backhand and crushed a forehand winner down the line. He ran around another second serve on break point and again went down the line and this time followed it up with a deft drop shot for the break of serve.

Overall, Ferrer directed 76 percent first serves to Federer’s backhand, winning 25 of 39. Federer only won three of 12 first serve returns from the forehand wing. Federer won 10 of 22 points starting with a backhand return off a second serve but excelled winning 77 per cent (7/9) starting with a forehand return off Ferrer’s second serve.

Running Less
Federer’s committed, forward-moving game style is also a bonus for his legs, especially in the coming weeks as he chases a sixth US Open hardcourt title. Federer only ran 1644 metres for the match with his prominent north-south strategy, while Ferrer ran 2081 metres, mainly going east-west. Federer dominated points won that lasted four shots or less (54 to 38), while losing the majority of points that lasted between five and nine shots (28 to 31), and points lasting longer than nine shots (3 to .

David Ferrer will not be disappointed with the loss, especially dominating the second set, but it will be Federer who takes the most away from Cincinnati - his first ATP World tour Masters 1000 title after losing four 1000 finals in a row.

The final chapters in the Swiss star’s remarkable career are very much still to be written.

The points in Kei Nishikori’s stunning 6-4, 1-6, 7-6(4), 6-3 victory over Novak Djokovic on Saturday were even, but the timing was not.

Djokovic, the top seed, won more points (120 to 117), hit more winners (38 to 37), and made fewer errors (80 to 82). But all points in tennis are not created equal and the 10th-seeded Nishikori did a much better job of gathering the ones that weighed the most.

Nishikori played better under pressure and stepped up in the third and fourth sets, reaching out and grabbing his spot in the United States final instead of waiting for it to be handed to him. Nishikori’s forehand, in particular, did a lot of damage, cracking 13 winners, including six in the third set, when the match turned.

IBM analytics showed Nishikori hit 253 forehands and 198 backhands for the match, representing 56 percent forehands. Djokovic was more even, hitting 228 forehands and 204 backhands (52 percent forehands).

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Djokovic acknowledged the improvement in Nishikori’s forehand in his post-match interview.

“Well, I think he wasn’t using forehand as well as he does now,” Djokovic said. “Really aggressive. He’s very quick.”

He added: “Other than the second set, my game today was not even close to what I wanted it to be. A lot of unforced errors, a lot of short balls. Just wasn’t myself.”

In the pivotal third set, Nishikori broke Djokovic at 3-4, with the Serb starting the game with a double fault. At 30-30, Nishikori hit a spectacular on-the-run, crosscourt backhand passing shot and broke at 30-40 with a forehand return winner down the line. He served for the set but double faulted at 5-3, 30-40 to hand the break straight back.

The third-set tiebreaker was ultimately the key to the match. The first two sets were entertaining but gave few clues as to who was going to move on to Monday’s final.

Djokovic played an out-of-character passive third-set tiebreaker. He committed a backhand return error off a good serve on the first point and missed a first-shot backhand after his serve to trail, 0-2. His backhand has always been his rock, but he committed another backhand error on the third point, netting Nishikori’s return.

The fourth point was the most bizarre, and clearly showed something was not right with Djokovic. He defended well, but on the fifth shot of the point, he hit a slice forehand with a topspin grip from around the middle of the court right into the bottom of the net. It was as passive as he could be at a time that demanded total aggression. He got back to 2-4, but then double-faulted.

Serving at 4-6, he moved awkwardly and sent a forehand wide from well behind the baseline, a shot that a clear mind and quick feet would not miss.

Brain Game author Craig O’Shannessy breaks down the US Open final.

Marin Cilic hit double the amount of winners than Kei Nishikori (38 to 19), turning back the clock to the golden age of the big server in winning the US Open singles title Sunday in New York. Cilic dominated Nishikori 6-3, 6-3, 6-3, crushing 17 aces, only losing nine points on his first serve, and controlling the back of the court with outstanding court position that carried him to an emphatic victory.

With Cilic already up a set and a break 6-3, 3-2, he served four aces in a row, with three of them blasting down the middle, to effectively take Nishikori and the crowd out of the contest without a ball being returned. Cilic also started the first game of the third set with three consecutive aces, and eventually won it when Nishikori netted a forehand return off a 120mph serve down the middle at Ad In.

Cilic served 13 of his 17 aces down the middle (eight Deuce / five Ad) as well as one out wide in the Deuce court and three out wide in the Ad. This was a huge difference-maker in the match for the Croatian as he was able to gather plenty of free points while Nishikori was battling with his game, making many more errors from the back of the court than we were used to seeing from him in his run to the final.

Cilic relished having 40 per cent (33/83) of his serves unreturned for the match while Nishikori struggled with just over half that at 24 per cent (18/74). Nishikori was only able to win 11 percent (1/9) of his break points, while Cilic was far more efficient, winning 55 per cent (6/11).

The speed of the serve was a massive factor in this critical area. Cilic’s fastest serve for the match was 134mph, and he averaged 124mph on first serves. Nishikori could only manage 118 as his fastest and 108 as an average – 16mph slower than his taller Croatian rival.

Cilic enjoyed a huge 62-45 advantage in shorter points lasting up to four shots, and still held a narrow edge in rallies five to eight shots (18 to 16), and was surprisingly almost twice as good as Nishikori in longer points of nine shots or more, winning 13 to seven. Cilic used powerful, flat groundstrokes and a considerable amount of off-pace slice backhands to keep Nishikori off balance.

Overall, Cilic won 48 baseline points to 42, which robbed Nishikori of the only real advantage he could possibly hope to have in the match. Nishikori hit more forehand winners (14 to 11) but Cilic slightly edged his Japanese opponent with backhand winners (four to two).

Once rallies developed, it was Cilic who dominated with his hard, flat groundstrokes, mainly due to his outstanding court position around the baseline. He is one of the best in the game at moving forward to a short ball, attacking it with his feet as well as his hands. Cilic was able to force 25 groundstroke errors (10 forehand / 15 backhand), while Nishikori was only able to extract 22 forced errors (12 forehand / 10 backhand) from the Croat.

A very telling IBM statistic from the match showed Nishikori contributed 30 unforced errors to Cilic’s 27. If Nishikori could not force more errors, and was looser than Cilic from the back of the court, then he had nowhere to find an advantage on the expansive Arthur Ashe Stadium.

Cilic broke first in the opening set when Nishikori missed a slice forehand wide on the 17th shot of the rally. Cilic was more patient and displayed more variety at this early stage of the final.

Cilic broke first in the second set on his fourth break point of the 1-1 game when Nishikori netted a first-shot backhand. Cilic lost his serve at 5-2 with a first-shot forehand error after the serve, but broke immediately back with a forehand winner down the line at 5-3, 30/40 to take a commanding two-sets-to-love lead.

Cilic broke again early in the third set with Nishikori serving 1-2, 30/40, at the end of a grueling 23-shot rally, when Nishikori missed a backhand wide. Cilic served the match out at 5-3 with two service winners to start the game and a backhand winner crosscourt to seal it.

It has been a while coming, but Marin Cilic played outstanding tennis on the biggest stage of his life to win his first Grand Slam title.

Roger Federer has once again got the ball on a string.

Federer is back to his magical best, moving through to the final of the Shanghai Rolex Masters with a jaw-dropping 6-4, 6-4 victory over World No. 1 Novak Djokovic.

The reason for the renaissance is simple – he is attacking the net at will, making opponents have to constantly react to his mayhem. He has also found a way out of the “backhand cage” at the baseline by taking far more backhands down the line, which both surprised Djokovic and in return fed Federer’s stronger forehand.

Nothing in the sport is as feared as the front-running, net rushing, avalanche of pressure that the Swiss superstar created in his prime. Federer definitely moved the clock back in time with this vintage semi-final performance. “It's just that he played everything he wanted to play,” Djokovic said post-match. “He played the perfect match.”

Finishing points at the net is now firmly back on the front page of the Federer strategy book as he combined to come forward a staggering 48 times with a well-organised mix of serve-and-volley, approaching, and chip-and-charge off second serves. Federer also cleverly broke down Djokovic’s forehand (22 errors), while at the same time protected his own backhand, which stood tall with only 10 errors.

The bigger the point, the more you were going to find the Swiss star swarming the net.

Finishing At The Net
Attempted/Won
Winning %
Serve & Volley 1st Serves
11/15
73%
Serve & Volley 2nd Serves
1/2
50%
Return Approach
3/8
38%
Rally Approach
13/23
57%
TOTAL 28/48 58%
Serve and Volley
Federer won 70 per cent (12/17) serving-and-volleying, which provided several key benefits in the overall game plan. Federer upgraded from a backhand groundstroke to a backhand volley, which is absolutely one of the best in the world. This ultra-aggressive tactic stopped Djokovic from creating rhythm in the match with his feared, constricting baseline rallies. Even when Federer lost a point in this manner, he still didn’t give Djokovic momentum by having a strategy to consistently execute.

Chip and Charge

Federer employed this classic, old-school strategy eight times, winning three, but once again the benefits are not only just seen on the scoreboard. It keeps points very short and played on his terms, once again naturally protecting his backhand from relentless pounding. The match was only four points old when Federer hit a slice backhand return and followed it to the net. He won the point and you could feel the pressure meter of the match skyrocket for the Serb. It’s not easy hitting backhand passing shots for a living.

Approaching
Federer’s excellent court position around the baseline helped him jump on short balls to finish at the net. Interestingly, Federer had more success approaching closer to the middle of the court, giving up less of an angle for Djokovic’s backhand passing shot. Djokovic had five backhand passing shot winners with the most coming from out wide near the tramline.

The Serb hit one of these spectacular short-angled backhand passing shot winners to save break point, down 6-4, 3-1 30/40.

Watch Djokovic Hot Shot


It was the 19th shot of the rally and hit wide from the ad court alley. Federer clinched match point with a slice backhand approach right down the middle of the court and followed it up with a backhand volley winner two shots later to seal victory. Federer would hit 10 volley winners (six backhands / four forehands) as well as five overhead winners.

Attacking Djokovic’s Forehand
This was a masterful counter-move from the back of the court that both removed Djokovic’s weapon (backhand) and also covered Federer’s own weakness on the backhand wing. Federer took many more backhands down the line to Djokovic’s forehand, which boomeranged the ball much more back to Federer’s dominant forehand and forced 22 forehand errors from the Serb.
The tactic started on the second point of the match as Federer ripped his first rally backhand down the line and got a short forehand as a result, which he hit for a winner. Federer also hit a backhand down the line to force a forehand error on game point to get to 1-1 in the opening set. With Federer serving at 1-2, 15/15, another backhand down the line immediately set up another forehand winner.

Spectacular Serving
Federer put up career numbers, making 70 per cent first serves, winning 68 per cent of them, and most importantly, won 61 per cent (13/21) of his second serves. He only faced one break point for the match, at 3-2, ad out in the first set. Federer hit a 143kpm second serve that Djokovic returned weakly to the service line, and Federer dispatched a run-around forehand winner behind Djokovic through the ad court.
Roger Federer is now well and truly back to being, well, Roger Federer.

Roger Federer’s love affair with the net is the primary reason for his resurgence back to the pinnacle of the sport. Federer defeated Gilles Simon 7-6(6), 7-6(2) in the final of the Shanghai Rolex Masters by putting up almost identical attacking numbers to his impressive semi-final victory over World No. 1 Novak Djokovic.

The Swiss did not have it all his own way, saving one set point in the first set and two in the second, but his commitment to come forward was the difference maker in winning his first ATP World Tour Masters 1000 title in Shanghai. Simon presented a different, more confusing game style for Federer to unlock, but he ultimately got the job done exactly the same way as his stunning semi-final victory – by turning a possible east-west loss into a defining north-south victory.

The numbers against Simon and Djokovic are strikingly similar, showing Federer is clearly seeing the court well and is unwavering in his game style.

In both the semi-final and the final, Federer won the same amount of serve and volley points on first serves (11), second serves (2), return approaches (3) and hit an identical number of rally approaches (23). It is not a stretch to say Federer has found his winning formula, with the numbers better explaining his success than simply watching him play points.

Finishing At The Net
vs. Simon
vs. Djokovic
Serve & Volley 1st Serves
84% (11/13)
73% (11/15)
Serve & Volley 2nd Serves
100% (2/2)
50% (1/2)
Return Approach
50% (3/6)
38% (3/8)
Rally Approach
65% (15/23)
57% (13/23)
TOTAL 70% (31/44) 58% (28/48)
Getting the mix right of coming forward and staying back is the key, and he is once again making opponents react to what he presents rather than the other way around. It also naturally provides a higher winning percentage, and builds a “short ball hunter” mentality that relentlessly creates pressure at the front of the court.

Tactical Change
Federer was immediately challenged by Simon, who presents an unusual, frustrating style of play to figure out. Simon loves the baseline, hits ultra-flat groundstrokes on both sides, and is constantly changing the direction and speed of his shots. It’s a complex, yo-yo game style that feeds off pace, and often leads to the unravelling of the opponents’ game and mind.

Federer lost his opening service game with a backhand and two forehand errors. Simon also scorched a flat backhand winner down the line and Federer quickly lost seven of the first eight points, committing five unforced errors in the first two games. Simon’s weapons of confusion were dominating, and Federer was unsuccessfully rallying too much. The Swiss star only won only 22 per cent (4/18) of baseline points by the sixth game of the opening set. Federer tried to hit through Simon, which clearly wasn’t working, and provided the Frenchman with the raw power to use back against Federer.

Federer hit topspin on 85 per cent (17/20) of his backhands in the first six games, but that dropped to only 57 per cent in the next seven games as Federer used his slice backhand way more to starve power, dragging Simon off the baseline and putting the ball lower out of his strike zone. He dropped the average hit point to only 33cm above the court from this shot. Federer was clearly putting the brakes on the backhand ad court exchanges, and recommitting to the net more to finish points.

Opportunity Knocks
As the match developed, Federer was also looking to control the baseline with his forehand to stretch the court and give Simon some of his own medicine. Simon served for the first set at 5-4, but Federer broke back at 30/40 when he ran outside the alley in the ad court to hit a forehand return off a second serve, and then ripped two more forehands to force a backhand error and even the match. Federer won 15 of 18 points towards the end of the first set by slicing more backhands, looking for forehands and pouncing on the short ball. Federer saved both set points in the second set by going at Simon’s more powerful, but erratic forehand.

Federer’s recommitment to the net at 33 years old takes courage, as losing points coming forward always seems to sting a little harder than from the baseline. Now with a healthy body, a clear mind and a ruthlessly efficient strategy, he is once again taking the tennis world for another glorious ride.

Novak Djokovic shrinks the court like nobody else on the planet.

Djokovic dominated the final of the BNP Paribas Masters 6-2, 6-3 against Milos Raonic, applying pressure with his elastic defense that made the Canadian chase smaller margins that ultimately had him beating himself.

Nowhere else on the court was this more evident than on Raonic’s dominant forehand wing.

Raonic was forced to play wider – in fact too wide – than he normally has to in order to get the ball past Djokovic, who produced his typical sliding defense, constantly putting one more ball back in play for Raonic to wrestle with.

Raonic’s forehand was ultimately forced beyond its limits, committing 23 groundstroke errors to the Serb’s two. This massive differential gave Djokovic a huge comfort zone in baseline play that allowed him to compete with more and more aggression as the match developed.

Getting a ball past the World No. 1 is once again proving to be one of the most difficult tasks in the sport. For example, Raonic typically devours run-around forehands in the Ad court, but 56 per cent (13/23) of his errors were pressured from that side of the court. The main error was going back cross court, where he made six costly mistakes wide in the alley chasing an ever-shrinking target. The powerful Canadian also hit four forehands into the net from the Ad Court, two in the alley going inside-in down the line, and only one long past the baseline.

Raonic was trying to go around Djokovic, when he may well have enjoyed more success hitting his huge forehands at bigger targets more down the middle of the court.

A key strategy of Djokovic’s was to run Raonic hard to his forehand wing in the Deuce Court, trying to catch him ‘cheating ‘running around backhands in the Ad Court. Raonic made six forehand errors into the net in the Deuce court, barely reaching the ball and unable to get it back over the net. Raonic also made two errors wide in the alley from the Deuce court, as well as two deep errors.

Djokovic also greatly benefitted from playing ahead in the match, breaking Raonic’s opening service games in each set to forge commanding 3-0 leads in both sets. The scoreboard pressure instantly became another formidable opponent for the Canadian.

The writing was on the wall early as Raonic committed five forehand errors in the first two games. Djokovic won nine of the first 10 baseline points in the opening four games before Raonic finally settled down and found his range.

Raonic won eight straight points in the middle of the opening set, coming back from 0/40 to hold serve at 1-4, but was then unable to break Djokovic when he had him 0/40 in the following game. Raonic would ultimately go 0-4 on break points, mainly because of his miss-firing forehand.

Raonic stayed fairly close to Djokovic in rallies lasting up to four shots (30 to 25) and exchanges lasting over nine shots (six to eight), but pulling the trigger too early, too often in rallies lasting five to nine shots was where all the damage was done, only winning 10 points to Djokovic’s 23. Djokovic makes it so difficult to successfully construct a point and gain control from the trenches.

Djokovic surged to win 66 per cent (18/24) of baseline points by the sixth game of the opening set, always playing with the comfort that his stretching game style was extracting a plentiful amount of errors from Raonic’s power baseline game.

When Raonic double-faulted to trail 0-2 in the second set, the match was effectively over. Raonic had only two forehand winners at this stage, and had committed 15 unforced errors off his preferred wing. At the same time Djokovic had the amazing numbers of three forehand winners and only two unforced errors. He was clearly playing at a different, more rarified level.

Raonic’s big-serve game also suffered as a result of Djokovic’s suffocating pressure, as Raonic only won 20 percent of his second-serve points in the opening set, and 37 percent by the end of the match. Raonic also found no answer at the front of the court, only winning a lowly 40 percent (6/15) approaching.

Djokovic once again showed that power is not necessarily the sport’s ultimate weapon. One more ball in play still rules supreme.

Tomas Berdych’s forehand has seen better days.

Berdych lost his opening round match of the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals 6-1, 6-1 to Stan Wawrinka on Monday, and the heavy defeat can be mainly attributed to this completely misfiring stroke.

Read: Wawrinka Cruises Past Berdych In Group A

Berdych normally relies on his flashy forehand to pressure and stretch opponents from the back of the court, but it didn’t produce a single winner against Wawrinka, while notching up 24 errors (16 groundstroke / eight return).

Other areas of his game also underperformed, but the spotlight of defeat shined squarely on this specific area, which started spraying right from the beginning of the match.

"Well, unfortunately it was my worst match of the whole season," Berdych said post-match. "My game is about hitting the ball nice, clean, then you can create something. But that’s the beginning of what I didn’t have today at all. I hit so many frames."

Berdych’s honest assessment of his game was spot on, as he made three forehand errors in the opening game. He lost the game with a routine forehand from the middle of the court, badly pulling off the shot to his left while trying to hit the ball to his right. His balance, timing and ultimately confidence were all suffering early on.

In the following game, Berdych committed two consecutive forehand errors from deuce to lose his serve. After four games, Berdych had accumulated 10 forehand errors (seven groundstroke / three return), giving Wawrinka an obvious target to keep hammering away at.

Berdych tried to hide the weakness with a serve-and-volley play down 0-3, 0/40, but an excellent low blocking return by Wawrinka had Berdych’s backhand volley finding the bottom of the net.

Only seven rallies made it past nine shots, and Wawrinka won 67 per cent (54 to 26) of the shorter points. As Berdych aptly said, "This is just a bad day. That’s how it is."

In the opening set, Wawrinka used his raking backhand primarily cross court to pull Berdych off the court, and also to open up a hole in the deuce court to attack the forehand on the next shot. Wawrinka hit 86 per cent of his backhands cross court with ruthless determination. Wawrinka then used his forehand to go right at Berdych’s forehand, hitting 74 per cent cross court through the deuce court, with only five forehands going down the line. Wawrinka won an extremely high 71 per cent (15/21) of baseline points in the first set by sticking to this effective strategy.

Serving

The confidence Wawrinka gained from getting free points in rallies helped him bomb away with his first serve, only losing one point (21/22) on first serve for the entire match. Wawrinka was also a perfect five for five serving and volleying, taking the battle forward when the score was in his favour to surprise the Czech. Berdych’s serve was also misfiring, as he only won 21 per cent (5/21) of second serves for the match. Wawrinka sped through his service games, averaging 98 seconds each, and 18 seconds between serves. It was an avalanche of aggression that Berdych couldn’t escape from. Berdych’s struggles on serve were clearly illustrated by the duration of his service games, averaging four minutes and 34 seconds, and 24 seconds between points. It was a slow, hard slog to win points anywhere on the court for the Czech.

Returning

Wawrinka repeatedly chipped Berdych’s first serve back in play, neutralising the weapon, and then stepped forward to hit bigger returns off second serves to immediately rush Berdych’s groundstrokes. Wawrinka only averaged 54mph on his first serve returns (Berdych 61mph), often floating the first serve return high and deep like a butterfly, landing it close to the baseline with no power for Berdych to hurt him back with.

Berdych is making his fifth straight appearance at the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals and has never won his opening match, but has always gone on to win his second match. He will need to tidy up his forehand in the next 48 hours for that to stay true to form.

The irony of tennis is that the key to winning is typically not hitting more winners.

Roger Federer dominated Milos Raonic 6-1, 7-6(0) at the Barclays ATP Tour Finals on Sunday, hitting 23 winners to the Canadian’s 29, proving too strong on the points that really mattered for victory.

Federer was unbroken, saving all four break points he faced, and he broke Raonic twice in the opening set to direct the flow of play and wrestle early control of the momentum in this opening round Group B match.

The weapon of choice for both players was the forehand, and while Raonic ultimately hit more (96 to 53), Federer diffused then redirected his opponent’s primary strategy. Raonic produced bigger forehands, averaging 78mph to Federer’s 70mph, but the Swiss maestro hit his smarter.

Tennis in many ways is a game of raw power at the top level of the sport, which is a main reason Raonic is playing this week, but it’s also a game of guile and ambush, which is a main reason why Federer has won this event a record six times, beginning in 2003.

he predictability of Raonic’s forehand hurt him in the opening set as he directed 82 per cent of his forehands through the Ad court to Federer’s backhand, only taking four to Federer’s forehand through the deuce court. Federer was always a step ahead with this master plan, only making one backhand unforced error in the extended second set, clearly figuring out how to overcome the Ad Court onslaught.

While the result was close when the points were short in the opening set, with Federer slightly edging Raonic 14 points to 13, Federer completely dominated 12 to two once rallies extended past four shots. Federer had a plan and patterns to execute, while Raonic unfortunately failed to produce the necessary counter moves.

Throughout the match, Raonic was always looking to hit run-around forehands in the Ad Court, but his lack of variety with this tactic often saw Federer hitting slow, slice backhands in return, giving the powerful Canadian nothing to work with. With Federer sitting on backhands in the Ad court, the Swiss star effectively shrunk the court with his court position, being a step ahead with the backhand ramming tactic.

By 1-1 in the second set, Raonic had hit 59 per cent of his forehands inside-out to Federer’s backhand, 22 per cent down the line to Federer’s backhand, and only 14 per cent inside-in, and five per cent cross court to Federer’s forehand. They were all big, but someone was anticipating them on the other side of the net. Raonic was forced to play wider than he his comfort zone allows, committing 16 forehand unforced errors to Federer’s four.

The net was a smart option for Raonic to attack, but Federer was expecting this tactic as well. Raonic came to the net 17 times but could only win six points, which was one less than Federer won (7/10) from seven fewer attempts.

Returning

Federer clearly employed a neutralising tactic with his returning, often hitting slow slice backhand returns to try and take the early power out of the point. Raonic averaged 66mph with his return speed, but Federer purposely lowered his number to only 52mph – less than half his fastest groundstroke speed of 104mph. The slower the ball, the less ammunition Raonic had to fire back at him.

This was a smart victory for Federer, as he only got to hit to hit 45 per cent forehands for the match, compared to Raonic’s 76 per cent. Federer has had to play a lot of flame-throwers in his career, and power is a quality that he has successfully learnt to deal with. The clever win helps him get by a dangerous opponent and set up yet another run at the title at the prestigious year-end event.

Stan Wawrinka had finally arrived at match point against Roger Federer, primarily due to his perfection at the net in the third set.

Wawrinka had ventured to the net 13 points so far in the deciding set, and amazingly had won every single one of them. He was successfully taking the fight forward, winning all seven of his serve-and-volley points, and all six approaching during the rally.

It was time to finish, and the net was the place to do it.

Serving at 5-4, 40-30, Wawrinka once again served and volleyed on his first serve, but missed it in the net going out wide. It was a costly fault to the wide location, as Wawrinka would only make 4/17 first serves wide in the ad court for the final set, winning three of them. On the biggest point of the match, choosing a low percentage target was a dangerous option, especially considering the success Wawrinka had enjoyed throughout the match repeatedly winning points serving right at Federer’s body.

Wawrinka then elected to serve and volley on his second serve to Federer’s backhand, hitting a 101mph heavy kicker that allowed him to close hard inside the service line for the first volley. It was a courageous decision, as all the other serve and volley points so far in the third set were behind a first serve.

Wawrinka chose to hit his lunging forehand volley cross court, but had little chance of hitting it for a winner because of his reaching balance. Federer was there in a flash to intercept it, flicking a forehand winner down the line to bring the score back to deuce.

Wawrinka would serve and volley again on a second serve to Federer’s backhand on his next match point, and again chased the illusion of the open court for the first volley. This time a tough backhand volley ended up in the net.

The general rule in our sport is that first volleys go back behind the opponent unless you can hit a winner or make them extremely uncomfortable. A running forehand passing shot is measurably easier than being on the run, stopping and moving back to where you just came from to hit a backhand passing shot. The reorganization of the hands and feet is a difficult task.

Wawrinka held a third match point at ad in a few points later, and again chose to serve and volley. The problem was that the first serve went straight to Federer’s forehand, and the quality return was blocked straight back at Wawrinka’s feet. Wawrinka hit an outstanding backhand half volley, but popped up the next forehand volley and Federer raced to the net to hit a forehand winner. The massive crowd was losing their mind as the drama unfolded.

A major factor in Wawrinka not converting his three match points was his inability to get his first serve in during the lengthy game, which lasted 10 minutes and 55 seconds.

Wawrinka only made 28 per cent (4/14) first serves at this critical time, attempting to serve and volley on seven of the 10 first serves that ended as a fault. First serve consistency was a problem all night for Wawrinka, as he ended up making a lowly 36 per cent (20/55) first serves in the deciding set, with Federer also low, but more than 10 points better at 47 per cent (21/55).

From being a perfect 13-0 at the net in the third set up to his first match point, Wawrinka would go 1-3 on serve and volley for the remainder of the set and would only win 2-5 approaching. The skyrocketing pressure had a lot to do with that.

Wawrinka had chances to break Federer at 5-5, holding two break points, but didn’t put two forehand returns back in play. Overall, Wawrinka missed 13 returns in the deciding set (eight forehand / five backhand), while Federer only committed eight, with seven coming off his backhand wing.

Wawrinka would hold one more match point at 6/5 in the tie-break, but it was again his forehand return that missed, floating long off a first serve.

This was a magnificent battle for the ages that felt much more like a London street fight than an elegant game of tennis. Wawrinka should not second guess himself with his decision making – one more quality first serve in play at the right time would have done the trick.

Novak Djokovic employed a boxer’s mentality of jabbing, weaving and enduring to defeat Stan Wawrinka in five sets in their Australian Open semi-final on Friday night.

Djokovic ultimately triumphed 7-6(1), 3-6, 6-4, 4-6, 6-0 to move through to Sunday’s blockbuster final against Andy Murray.

Read Match Report | How The Match Was Won

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Like a classic 'Rocky' theme, Djokovic absorbed countless groundstroke punches from Wawrinka, making the Swiss take one more swing, until there was no gas left in his mental tank. It was not a classic encounter like the last two years at Melbourne Park, but style points were of no concern to the Serb.

Wawrinka came out swinging right from the start, determined to land enough heavy blows with his forehand and backhand to knock himself straight through to the final.

Overall, Wawrinka hit 42 winners to Djokovic’s 27, with 15 coming from the forehand side and nine from the backhand.

The most alarming statistic from the match, which clearly showed the defensive nature of Djokovic’s game plan, was that the Serb failed to hit a single winner in the fourth set as he tried to close out the match. Djokovic even led 2-0 in the fourth set, but time and time again he was running side to side, making one more ball, pressuring Wawrinka to ultimately miss. Not getting hit had developed into a more important tactic than hitting.

On so many levels, this was a very even match played with two very different styles. Only 56 per cent of points ended in the first four shots, as rallies were constantly developed, with Wawrinka chasing Djokovic around the court with his heavy forehand and backhand blows.

One attacked, and one defended, and it all ended up pretty much even.

There were 48 extended rallies of at least nine shots, representing a substantial 16 per cent of total points, and both players ended up winning exactly 24 each.

The longer, heavy hitting really stepped up at the start of the third set, with 10 extended rallies in the first four games, averaging 13 shots a rally. Wawrinka was pressing and Djokovic was deflecting.

Djokovic was broken five times in the match, but the breaks were not so much the fault of the serve, except for a double fault at 2-3, 30/40 in the second set. On the eight break points, Djokovic landed five first serves, but four uncharacteristic backhand errors were the real culprits of the breaks.

Djokovic elected to serve much more at Wawrinka’s backhand for the match, directing 28 first serves in the deuce court to Wawrinka’s backhand down the middle, and only 16 out wide. He was trying to find the quick way home in the cool evening air.

In the Ad court, Djokovic again primarily went after the backhand, hitting 23 out wide and only 14 down the middle. Overall, Djokovic served slightly better to the Ad court, making 66 per cent to 63 per cent in the deuce court. Wawrinka’s strengths were flipped, making 64 per cent to the deuce court and only 55 per cent to the Ad court.

As you would expect, Djokovic’s strength: returning, was with his backhand, making 80 per cent off that wing, compared to only 64 per cent from his forehand. Wawrinka posted similar numbers, making 78 per cent of his backhand returns, and 65 per cent from the forehand.

The evenness of the match was further illustrated by backhand returns in play – Djokovic landed 66, with Wawrinka right behind him at 65. Both players registered 25 forced return errors.

Lastly, the net was another indicator of how little separated the two, with Djokovic winning 19/30 points approaching, while Wawrinka won 18/30. So close, for so long, before Djokovic finally pulled away.

Wawrinka said in his post-match conference that he was mentally tired. Djokovic adapted to his opponent, and played the perfect tactics to finally break down the mind and resolve of last year’s champion.

If at first you don’t succeed, change, and try again.

Novak Djokovic defeated Andy Murray 7-6(5), 6-7(4), 6-3, 6-0 to win his fifth Australian Open title, but at one stage early in the third set, victory seemed a distant hope.

Djokovic clearly changed a losing tactic of grinding with Murray to a winning tactic of seeking shorter points. The Serb came from a break down in the third set to win the last nine games in a row, and run away with his fifth Australian Open title.

Djokovic lost 36 points in the opening two sets in extended rallies of nine shots or more. He was seeking the tactic, winning 28 points of his own, but those numbers spell pain on every level, including in his legs. At times, Djokovic seemed to have trouble just staying upright.
There was a grueling 64 extended rallies of nine shots or more in the opening two sets, and the Serb was getting nowhere fast. Points lasted forever, and he was losing more than he was winning. Djokovic had outworked Murray in last year’s US Open encounter, but the Scot had clearly fixed that physical deficiency.

Djokovic wasn’t succeeding with grinding from the trenches, so he abruptly changed the complexion of the match in the third set, and amazingly only played 14 more extended rallies in the remaining two sets. It was a brilliant flick of the switch that wrestled complete control of the final.

There were 33 long points in set one – there were only four in set four. Djokovic broke Murray’s will by moving from game plan “A” to game plan “B,” and bolted to the finish line.

The beauty of this victory is that Djokovic possessed the mental and physical skills to adapt. It seems like common sense, but it’s a difficult thing to do, even at the elite level of the game. What he started with was failing, so he changed, and the rest is history. The players that can develop and modify game plans best are typically the ones holding the silverware at the end of the tournament.

Djokovic won a tight opening set, and Murray won the second in similar fashion. The beginning of the third set seemed more important than normal, and when Murray gained the early break for a 2-0 lead, Djokovic’s hopes for victory were definitely slipping – just like his precarious balance on break point in the opening game, where he ended up on the ground after a forehand error down the line. Standing up was suddenly a problem.

But Djokovic would only lose one more game for the match from this precarious position. Serving at 0-2, the Serb completely changed things up – throwing in a few curve balls that gave the match a completely new complexion, and ultimately formed the foundation for the stunning victory.

On the first point of the 0-2 game, he successfully came to the net. The next point he threw in a backhand drop shot to bring Murray to the net. He then hit a smart jam second serve to the backhand that was unreturned, and ripped an early backhand winner down the line. Games had taken forever to get through. Now they were over in the blink of an eye.

The match suddenly felt different. Things were flying instead of grinding.

Djokovic started the following game with a forehand return winner, and won it with a normal rally that included a not so normal slow, rolling, off-pace forehand, that changed the cadence of the point. Djokovic was doing anything to make things feel different for Murray than the first two sets.

Djokovic held serve for 3-2 with an approach shot, and surged to a 40/0 lead in the following game when Murray unsuccessfully came to the net, and the Serb finished with a forehand cross-court pass.

Murray double faulted at 3-4, 15/40, and would not win another game for the match. It was a classic case of giving the opponent, and the match, a completely new look, with a strong dose of secondary tactics.
Matches, and tennis history, can take a new course very quickly when the right game plan is identified and executed. Novak Djokovic is number one in the world for a reason, and once again displayed the power of his mind to overcome adversity.

Craig O'Shannessy uses extensive tagging, metrics and formulas to uncover the patterns and percentages behind the game. Read more at www.braingametennis.com.