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1 Djoković, Novak SRB 1
2 Federer, Roger SUI 2
3 Murray, Andy GBR 3
4 Wawrinka, Stan SUI 4
5 Nishikori, Kei JPN 5
6 Berdych, Tomas CZE 6
7 Ferrer, David ESP 7
8 Raonic, Milos CAN 8
9 Cilić, Marin CRO 9
10 Nadal, Rafael ESP 10
11 Dimitrov, Grigor BUL 11
12 Tsonga, Jo-Wilfried FRA 12
13 Simon, Gilles FRA 13
14 Anderson, Kevin RSA 14
15 Goffin, David BEL 15
16 Lopez, Feliciano ESP 16
17 Isner, John USA 17
18 Monfils, Gael FRA 18
19 Robredo, Tommy ESP 19
20 Gasquet, Richard FRA 20
21 Mayer, Leonardo ARG 21
22 Bautista Agut, Roberto ESP 22
23 Cuevas, Pablo URU 23
24 Troicki, Viktor SRB 24
25 Karlović, Ivo CRO 25
26 Tomic, Bernard AUS 26
27 Seppi, Andreas ITA 27
28 Fognini, Fabio ITA 28
29 Kyrgios, Nick AUS 29
30 Thiem, Dominic AUT 30
31 Sock, Jack USA 31
32 Garcia-Lopez, Guillermo ESP 32
33 Kohlschreiber, Philipp GER 33
34 Mannarino, Adrian FRA 34
35 Monaco, Juan ARG 35
36 Querrey, Sam USA 36
37 Andujar, Pablo ESP 37
38 Chardy, Jeremy FRA 38
39 Kliżan, Martin SVK 39
40 Tipsarević, Janko SRB @39
41 Corić, Borna CRO 40
42 Rosol, Lukas CZE 41
43 Bellucci, Thomaz BRA 42
44 Verdasco, Fernando ESP 43
45 (SE)
46 (Q) Dołgopołow, Alex (UKR)
47 (Q) Young, Donald (USA)
48 (Q) Lu, Yen-Hsen (TPE)
49 (Q) Chung, Hyeon (TPE)
50 (Q) Kudla, Denis (USA)
51 (Q) Gulbis, Ernests (LAT)
52 (Q) Jużny, Michaił (RUS)
53 (WC) POSPISIL, Vasek CAN
54 (WC) BESTER, Philip CAN
54 (WC) DANCEVIC, Frank CAN
55 (WC) PELIWO, Filip CAN

Rezerwowi:
1. Muller, Gilles LUX 44
2. Vesely, Jiri CZE 45
3. Sousa, Joao POR 46
4. Janowicz, Jerzy POL 47
5. Estrella Burgos, Victor DOM 48
6. Stakhovsky, Sergiy UKR 49
7. Benneteau, Julien FRA 50
8. Becker, Benjamin GER 51
9. Johnson, Steve USA 52
10. Gabaszwili, Teimuraz RUS 53
11. Baghdatis, Marcos CYP 54
12. Bolelli, Simone ITA 55
13. Pospisil, Vasek CAN 56 (WC do MD)
14. Haider-Maurer, Andreas AUT 57
15. Young, Donald USA 58

Who will win it all at Rogers Cup presented by National Bank?

As players and fans try to shake off their Wimbledon hangovers, we turn our attention to hard-court season, and more specifically, toward Rogers Cup. Returning champions Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Agnieszka Radwanska are looking to defend their titles, but it will prove difficult against the class of the field in 2015.

Using hard-court (and hardcore) statistics from the past three years, let’s take a look at the favourites and the dark horses competing at Rogers Cup.

Men’s draw: Top 5 seeds

As far as the ATP circuit is concerned, this is Novak Djokovic’s world and we’re just living in it. In 2015, he has won: a fifth Australian Open title, a third Wimbledon title, as well as four Masters 1000 tournaments. He is a combined 48-3 on the year. All of these achievements come before his supposed “best” stretch of the tennis year, the hard-court season. The guy can literally do whatever he wants on a tennis court, whenever he wants to do it.

In 2015, Novak is winning 20% more on hard courts than anyone else playing at Rogers Cup.
hard court win percentage
Andy Murray, Stan Wawrinka, and Kei Nishikori all converge to the same win rate, around 80%. For Andy, this is a step back from his previous form. For Stan and Kei, it represents their slow ascent into hard-court relevance. One of these three players can push Djokovic at Rogers Cup, but it will take a herculean effort to defeat the current world No. 1.

Next, let’s take a look at these player’s dominance ratios on hard courts. A player’s dominance ratio (DR) is calculated using the following formula: (% of points won on opponents’ serves) / (% of points lost on own serve). DR tells us how dominant a tennis player truly is – usually a good indicator of win percentage.
dominance ratio graphs
As you can see, the other top seeds pale in comparison to Djokovic’s dominance on hard courts, where he boasts a 26-2 record in 2015 (only losses to Roger Federer and Ivo Karlovic).

Despite his 2015 record being the worst among the group, Tomas Berdych boasts the second best DR. This is attributed to his monster serve and flat, powerful ground strokes. He is due for a major correction and could take a run at the Rogers Cup title.

Bold prediction: If Berdych can sustain his current playing level, I think he has the best chance to upset the Djoker in Montreal. Maybe his newlywed status will help him clinch his second Masters 1000 title.

Dark horses: Men

Milos Raonic Fresh off foot surgery and a third-round loss at Wimbledon, Raonic is ready to play on home soil and win his first Masters 1000. He looks to repeat his 2013 showing in Montreal, where he lost to Rafael Nadal in the final. Raonic’s booming serve elevates his DR to 1.21, just a few ticks below Murray. If he can regain his 2013 form, look out. On a lighter note, this is a real thing:


Bernard Tomic Coming off a successful tournament defense at the Claro Open in Bogota, Tomic improved his hard-court record to 20-8 in 2015. He owns the eighth best hard-court record on tour, despite his 25th ranking. If he is beginning to fulfill his potential, he will turn some heads in Montreal.

Women’s draw: Top 5 seeds

If we are living in Novak’s world, then the universe belongs to Serena. She is 40-1 (!!!!!) on the year and is showing no signs of slowing down. With her victory at Wimbledon, she completed a second Serena Slam and has a chance to complete a Calendar Slam at the US Open – a tournament she has won three consecutive times. Her winning percentage on hard courts in 2015 is… …you guessed it, 100%.
hard court win percentage WTA
Other than Serena, the most legitimate threat on hard courts this year has been Simona Halep. She owns the most match wins on this surface (24), as well as the most titles (3). Her hard-court game has reached new heights in 2015, but still pales in comparison to Serena’s. The point I am trying to drive home is – Serena Williams is in a class of her own and nobody can change that, especially on hard courts.

Dark horses: Women

Venus Williams In 2014, Venus Williams reached the final of Rogers Cup, losing to Aga Radwanska in straight sets. She has continued her winning ways on hard courts, boasting a 76% win rate this year. If she can sustain her level of play, she could go deep in Rogers Cup – potentially setting up a 27th match against her #sisterforlife.

Timea Bacsinszky

Bacsinszky boasts an excellent record on hard courts in 2015, with 23 wins and only three losses. Both her wins came in Mexico – Acapulco and Monterrey. A semifinal berth at Roland Garros and a quarter-final berth at Wimbledon were both personal bests. Her successful 2015 should continue in Toronto.

With Rogers Cup only a week away, the stellar player field promises a spectacular show in the first warm-up tournament before the US Open.